Admittedly I take more of an interest in Miami International Airport (MIA) than the average person, given that it’s my home airport (unfortunately). I’m subscribed to receive email updates about the Miami-Dade Airport Committee Agenda, since this is often how we learn about new lounges, and other developments at the airport, before they’re otherwise publicly announced.
Along those lines, the committee is meeting today, and has an interesting item on the agenda…
In this post:
Miami wants to attract four new long haul routes
On the Miami-Dade Airport Committee Agenda this week is the following resolution:
Resolution directing the County County Attorney Mayor to determine the feasibility of direct passenger or cargo flights between Miami International Airport and the cities of Tokyo, Asuncion, Riyadh, and Singapore and, if feasible, to undertake all appropriate efforts to solicit such flights from the appropriate carriers.
The resolution goes on to explain that:
- Asuncion is the capital and largest city of Paraguay, and has been one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America in the past decade
- Miami has direct flights to Doha and Dubai, but lacks direct flights to Riyadh, which is “rapidly transforming into a leading global economic hub”
- Tokyo and Singapore are two of the world’s leading economies
With approval, the mayor or mayor’s designee will have to provide quarterly updates on the progress of these projects.
My take on the feasibility of these four desired routes
Let me of course emphasize that just because Miami wants these new routes, doesn’t mean they’ll actually happen. Airports and communities always have goals of new service that they’re pursuing, but actually making that service a reality is a different story. These are four interesting markets for different reasons, and with very different likelihoods of becoming a reality.
First, the Miami to Singapore route… that’s not happening. Period. That flight would cover a distance of over 10,500 miles, so it would be even longer than Qantas’ planned “Project Sunrise” flights, which will be the longest in the world. So this is about as likely as a Sarasota to Yangon route, which is to say zero.
On the other end of the spectrum, Miami to Asuncion absolutely could happen. I could see American operating it seasonally with a Boeing 787, or otherwise, once American gets its Airbus A321XLRs, this would be the perfect route for that plane. However, I can’t imagine this is at the top of the list of things American wants to do with the plane (since the focus will be transcon and transatlantic flights), so it’ll likely be a few years.
I imagine that a Miami to Riyadh route could eventually happen on Riyadh Air, once the airline grows its fleet massively, several years down the road. I’m sure Miami is on Riyadh Air’s radar, but not among the first 20 long haul destinations it plans to serve.
It seems unlikely that American would operate this route. For one, the only long haul destinations American exclusively serves out of Miami are to Latin America, so I can’t imagine that trend would change here. Second, without connecting traffic in Riyadh, American will have a much tougher time there than Delta, which is partnering with Riyadh Air, and also has a partnership with Saudia. That being said, don’t be surprised if American eventually flies to Riyadh from elsewhere, given that the Saudi government is throwing money at airlines to start Riyadh flights.
And that brings us to the Miami to Tokyo route. Miami has been pursuing a nonstop Tokyo flight for longer than I’ve been living here. If it were to happen, I have to imagine it would be more likely on Japan Airlines than American. The problem is, Japan Airlines is such a conservative airline with growth. The airline will be growing long haul capacity in the coming years, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Miami service finally added (though I also wouldn’t take it as a sure bet).
Bottom line
Miami Airport has created a list of four long haul destinations it’s hoping to get service to, and they include Asuncion, Riyadh, Singapore, and Tokyo. To save them a little time, let me share how this is going to play out. 😉
The Singapore service isn’t happening. The Asuncion service could happen with American’s A321XLRs. Riyadh Air may eventually launch Miami flights, but that’ll take some time. And regarding Tokyo, that hope has been there for years, and I do wish it would eventually happen.
What do you make of Miami Airport’s prospects here?
Can't really see a case for JAL wanting to expand to MIA. To my knowledge there's no real connection traffic angle since Chicago, Dallas, and CDMX provide great one-stop coverage, and I can't imagine there's much O/D demand for business or tourism either but I could be wrong on that one. Atlanta has a larger Japanese diaspora AFAIK, and Atlanta already has direct connections through Delta. United and American both offer a pittance of flights...
Can't really see a case for JAL wanting to expand to MIA. To my knowledge there's no real connection traffic angle since Chicago, Dallas, and CDMX provide great one-stop coverage, and I can't imagine there's much O/D demand for business or tourism either but I could be wrong on that one. Atlanta has a larger Japanese diaspora AFAIK, and Atlanta already has direct connections through Delta. United and American both offer a pittance of flights out of ATL, so not like either has much incentive to try to attract connection traffic there.
Miami is my home airport too and what an embarrassment it is. While these are interesting routes, Miami to South Asia would be an interesting proposition. The airport would need to be fixed from a disaster to a more modern and appealing airport.
Avoid MIA at all costs! Everything is broken, nothing ever gets fixed, moving sidewalks don't work, escalators are broken for months on end. It discraceful that this airport is in the United States. It feels like you arrived in third world country.
I definitely think we'll eventually see MIA-TYO/ICN. Helps with South American-Asia connectivity
Singapore has many Direct flights that are not non-stop, Direct with 1 layover (e.g. LAX-SIN has a stop in TYO). So I'm unsure why MIA-SIN was rejected out of hand.
Its possible that Miami could replace Houston on Singapore Airlines old IAH-MAN-SIN route.
It's kind of embarrassing that they highlighted Singapore as a route they're targeting, since it's neither possible nor economically viable. It suggests the MIA airport authority folks don't actually understand their industry very well!
I don't think Tokyo is that likely from AA.
But MIA could probably actually get Korean Air to ICN. KE actually has a pretty hefty US network and fly to many non-DL hubs like LAS, IAD, and DFW.
Miami needs on Asia non stop it has none.
I could see the RUH-MIA route being started by Riyadh Air due to the stron deamnds from local Saudis to visit and study in Miami. Many currently connect(usually in LHR) to reach MIA from Riyadh. SO there is strong demand for this market.
I have also met a lot of Saudis in Miami, some of which are students studying abroad, and some of which are Saudis vacationing in Miami. Once Riyadh Air has a connecting network and established flights to their main priority destinations, I expect to see MIA flights added as well.
Not sure if there's any demand to USA from Singapore to Miami at all
I flew ASU-MIA back in 2014 on an AA 757. Busy flight even then.
Singapore would only work w/ a stop in Europe, if SQ wants to run it. If SIN-Moscow-IAH worked at one point in the past, SQ could certainly make MIA work via Barcelona, Rome, Dublin?, Vienna? (avoiding typical major hubs).
Singapore couldn’t get Chicago or Houston to work. Not sure Miami would be any better.
SIA is too timid in the US market. Look how they dropped Houston last year, while at the same time, Cathay and EVA jumped into rapidly growing DFW. Starlux and China Airlines both first to PHX for Asian routes, Korean Air first in SLC, and SIA is nowhere to be found.
I think SQ may be able to make MIA service work this way. The difference with SQ flying to MIA compared to their IAH and ORD one-stop service failure was because the latter two have much more connectivity to Europe on United (another Star Alliance carrier) along with other international airlines. Meanwhile, if SQ flew to Miami through Europe, I'm sure they could find a market where people would choose to fly with the carrier...
I think SQ may be able to make MIA service work this way. The difference with SQ flying to MIA compared to their IAH and ORD one-stop service failure was because the latter two have much more connectivity to Europe on United (another Star Alliance carrier) along with other international airlines. Meanwhile, if SQ flew to Miami through Europe, I'm sure they could find a market where people would choose to fly with the carrier over the current options. Either because SQ will be the only airline serving the route nonstop (such as VIE or DUB - Aer Lingus only flies to MIA in the winter). I could see Barcelona being a good option because of endless demand. Level and AA are the only nonstop options right now. I'm sure SQ could capture some passenger's looking for a better experience. However, fares between MIA and BCN are quite low already, so I wouldn't bet on this 100%. MIA-FCO is too competitive in my opinion. ITA flies that route up to 2x daily with new aircraft and an amazing product in all cabins. AA will also be operating that route. AA is starting nonstop MIA-MXP service next summer, and I could see SQ operating that route as a potential MIA service.
Flew Asunción for years @ AA out of MIA on the 757 What’s new about this. City and customers were top notch. Great market and it was always full.
Data about the current (connecting) traffic would be useful. Yes, you have to search for it, but it's publicly available.
Asunción seems the most likely of that list. But instead of American offering it, what about LatAm? They already fly out of ASU and also out of MIA, just not directly between the two.
Last time I flew GRU-MIA on LatAm, a number of passengers were connecting from ASU.
I don't think there's an open skies agreement allowing Brazilian airlines to operate from ASU. LATAM Chile might be able to do it but they've got no flights to Paraguay at the moment.
How do japanese business travellers fly into latin america? Via dubai and doha? or via LAX/SFO or even Dallas? If JAL wants to deliver one stop to Latin America, MIA could make sense because of its extensive LA network by AA but what is the current situation? Do DFW/LAX/SFO provide enough connections to most LA destinations by AA? I think that would be the key for JL to launch MIA
AM fly from NRT straight into CDMX, there's no need to connect on the wrong side of the border.
And ANA has a MEX to NRT flight
I am surprised JAL doesn't fly Washington DC to Tokyo. Surely, it would consider this before a Tokyo Miami route, unless it does Miami as a 5fth freedom stop to South America as it used to do years ago with a stop in NYC.
NH already fly to IAD-HND, which is a better fit since it’s a UA hub (whom they have a Trans-Pacific JV with). UA also operates their own daily IAD-HND frequency. Not sure JL would be too eager to jump in considering their focus on serving AA hubs.
@Wayward
I agree with you somewhat but DC is also kind of a weird market. Flying TYO-IAD would be for Washington O&D and connections and there's no question AA and oneworld have VERY strong loyalty due to the DCA hub, but it just wouldn't be connecting traffic in IAD.
Good luck, Miami. AA is the world’s largest regional airline. so AA’s not going g to help with this wish list.
Paranair have a fair few international flights from ASU, although nothing long haul. I suspect they'll be more than happy to fly to MIA if some kind of incentive is offered because it'd help them grab connecting traffic from/to the Cono Sur.
Not sure what the rotations could be, but what about a MIA-HND-SIN? Other options could be SEA and YVR as connecting points
You can already book MIA-SFO-SIN and MIA-YVR-SIN on UA and AC respectively. A one stop routing wouldn’t provide much advantage over existing options (especially since on the inbound, all passengers will need to all deplane and clear US immigrations if the flight stops-over at a US airport like SEA).
why would anyone fly United (or worse AC) when superior convenient one stop options via DOH and DXB already exist
It's quite a bit shorter to fly westbound (especially via YVR) than flying eastbound and connecting in the Gulf. Also, United has definitely been improving lately, and is better overall than Emirates in business class (Polaris seats beat Emirates' old 777 business class in 2-3-2 configuration).
When I was living in South Florida, one of the disappointments was the lack of nonstop flights to East Asia; however, I recognized that it was pretty far, and a stop in ATL, NYC, LAX, or DOH, DXB, etc., was simply the ‘price’ to get to Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan. Worth it. Adding a nonstop to Tokyo would be epic, not only for those who enjoy traveling there, but also, because it would contribute...
When I was living in South Florida, one of the disappointments was the lack of nonstop flights to East Asia; however, I recognized that it was pretty far, and a stop in ATL, NYC, LAX, or DOH, DXB, etc., was simply the ‘price’ to get to Japan, South Korea, or Taiwan. Worth it. Adding a nonstop to Tokyo would be epic, not only for those who enjoy traveling there, but also, because it would contribute to making Miami and even more international place. Who knows, could lead to better food quality in FL.
What seems unlikely is the nonstop from MIA-SIN. I’ve taken SQ21/22/23/24 from JFK/EWR-SIN, and fellas, those flights are LONG, already about 19 hours, and usually eastbound each way. So, from MIA, that’d add at least 2 hours of flight time, and if Russian airspace is still off limits (good call, because, you know, MH17), the route is over the Atlantic, past Europe, Turkey, Caucuses, Afghanistan, India, Thailand, etc. After 17 hours, you start to go a little crazy, even in Business Class. Not sure that would mix well with ‘Florida Man.’ Besides, Miami is basically the same climate as Singapore, just swap AM/PM with the time difference.
Lots of demand to/from South America (especially Brazil) and Japan…could have a lot of potential for JL with the AA feed from MIA. And it’s more direct than going via Europe / Middle East, which is what most of that traffic flow does currently
Those that are connecting to south America usually go through DFW or LAX. Since it's more convenient . MIA seems out of the way for a connection down south.
Brandon, your perspective may be depend on where you are based (like, if you’re on the West Coast or in Texas), but objectively, MIA has AA’s most flights to South America (and Central America, and the Caribbean).
Like, for example, if you want to fly to more eclectic destinations in Latin America, like Montevideo, Uruguay, you won’t find that outta LAX, DTW, or JFK… just MIA, because it has the most options for that particular region.
From a passenger experience perspective, it's far from 'more direct'.
Few people would want to connect in a country which makes them cross passport control (often with huge queues), obtain an evisa, and even recheck their luggage when they can do it seamlessly via FRA etc.
Maybe if Miami reps bought a few $20k business class flights to attend some conference they could attract the routes to their airport
Nice DEN reference! Praise Bluecifer!
It's just a matter of when and who will be the first East Asian carrier to Miami and not if. CX looked at it years ago as well as China Airlines and JAL.
The A350-900ULR is the only ship with the range (plus reserves) to cover Singapore. But, would there be sufficient passenger demand? Maybe yes, maybe no.
Even that a359ULR might not make it on that route. MIA-SIN would be an extra 2 hours on top of EWR/JFK-SIN, which is already 19 hours. Project Sunrise SYD-LHR/CDG/JFK is shorter. Airbus would likely need to make an extra special a359UULR. And, once they do that, I presume some ‘wise guy’ is gonna want a nonstop between Beijing and Buenos Aires, so they’ll need a a359UUULR. Supposedly, China Eastern is launching that Shanghai to Buenos...
Even that a359ULR might not make it on that route. MIA-SIN would be an extra 2 hours on top of EWR/JFK-SIN, which is already 19 hours. Project Sunrise SYD-LHR/CDG/JFK is shorter. Airbus would likely need to make an extra special a359UULR. And, once they do that, I presume some ‘wise guy’ is gonna want a nonstop between Beijing and Buenos Aires, so they’ll need a a359UUULR. Supposedly, China Eastern is launching that Shanghai to Buenos Aires service, but it stops in Auckland, NZ.
I’m really surprised MIA or ATL don’t have any service to Tokyo. DFW and IAH both do. You would think at least one airport in the fast growing southeast would have it.
Delta flies to ATL - HND DL295 dept 10:30 A350-900
One of my favorite flights was Delta’s ATL-NRT service on their 747-400 (from NWA); when they offered the special edition Delta Reserve Amex credit card with metal from one of the aircraft that served that route, I jumped on that. Whenever that card expires, I’m not sending it back.
JAL used to fly to ATL in the 90s, and AA had a one-stop MIA-SJC/SEA-NRT service for some time.
CLT should have an TYO flight from AA or JAL, at least in my opinion. It's a little-known fact, but NC is actually the top-ranking US state for Japan direct investment, so for it not to have a flight of its own to Japan is fairly ridiculous. On top of that, CLT would allow for much more convenient transfers to the rest of the East Coast than DFW or ORD as well.
Apologies, I thought I had a source for that direct investment claim above, but after double-checking, I can't find it. Regardless, there's still huge levels of Japanese investment in NC (for example, Toyota's massive battery factory, Fujifilm and Morinaga operations and factories, plus of course Hondajet, as well as others such as Denso and Nipro.) So, I think there's still ample potential for a direct flight here, plus the obvious advantages of the major AA...
Apologies, I thought I had a source for that direct investment claim above, but after double-checking, I can't find it. Regardless, there's still huge levels of Japanese investment in NC (for example, Toyota's massive battery factory, Fujifilm and Morinaga operations and factories, plus of course Hondajet, as well as others such as Denso and Nipro.) So, I think there's still ample potential for a direct flight here, plus the obvious advantages of the major AA regional hub.