In late May 2025, JetBlue and United announced plans to launch a partnership, which they’re branding as “Blue Sky.” While I don’t think this should come as much of a surprise, the deal has been cleared by regulators.
In this post:
Blue Sky partnership clears regulatory review
JetBlue and United have cleared the Department of Transportation (DOT) review period for their new partnership without objection. This means they can continue with implementing their collaboration, which should go live this fall.
Once live, the expectation is that the airlines will offer reciprocal points earning and redemption opportunities, an interline agreement, and we’ll also see more cooperation when it comes to technology, including JetBlue’s Paisly platform.
Eventually — in 2027 and beyond — this partnership includes some fairly minor slot swaps at New York Kennedy (JFK) and Newark (EWR), since we know that United desperately wants to return to JFK. The thing is, what they’re requesting permission for is so minor that regulators have no reason to be concerned (of course if they try to extend the scope of that in the future, it would be a different story).
During the Q2 2025 earnings results, JetBlue President Marty St. George indicated that he expected the partnership to have even more financial benefit than initially planned, sharing the following:
“We believe Blue Sky will enable each airline to offer its customers access to hundreds of new flights and destinations through a traditional interline agreement, with the opportunity to earn and redeem loyalty points and miles across each other’s networks. United has agreed to transition its distribution of non-flight ancillaries such as hotels, rental cars, and more to our travel products subsidiary Paisly – turbocharging Paisly’s high-margin growth.”
“Blue Sky is expected to contribute $50 million more in incremental EBIT than we had initially planned for a partnership – accelerating JetForward. We are recalibrating the total program range and now anticipate $850 to $950 million in EBIT benefit by the end of 2027, up from $800 to $900 million previously.”
I wouldn’t read too much into this DOT approval
One would certainly hope that this deal isn’t something that regulators would object to. Many people will remember that the American and JetBlue Northeast Alliance was blocked by regulators, but that wasn’t due to the loyalty program collaboration.
Instead, that was due to the way in which the airlines coordinated schedules and fares on a widespread basis, which regulators found to be anti-competitive.
With the JetBlue and United partnership, the two airlines don’t plan on doing that, aside from a limited number of New York area slots in the future, which won’t tip the scale in a way that’s concerning to regulators.
My point is simply to say that I wouldn’t read much into what has happened here so far. I would’ve been absolutely shocked if regulators objected to an arrangement like this.
Now, I remain curious to see how this will all play out. We know United’s long term play here involves a much bigger presence in New York, and I struggle to see how starting to look into that two years down the road fits into United CEO Scott Kirby’s vision of airline dominance.
We know that Kirby is a competitive guy, and we know he thinks being at JFK is important. Seven daily slot pairs can’t actually be his end goal…
Bottom line
The JetBlue and United partnership is closer to becoming a reality, now that we know regulators won’t object. It’s expected to launch in the fall, with an interline agreement, loyalty perks, and more. There’s no reason this should’ve had any regulatory issues. I’m curious what this looks like 12 months down the road, though…
What do you make of the DOT giving JetBlue and United its blessing?
The Port Authority of NY NJ has released traffic stats for June and, to no one's surprise, UA continues to lag DL in passengers carried with DL carrying 33% more passengers overall and 50% more domestic passengers.
ATC issues have compounded the traffic reductions with 4% fewer flights (14% for UA) across all 3 airports and 4% fewer passengers.
AA is seeing the largest percentage increase but is still just over half the size of...
The Port Authority of NY NJ has released traffic stats for June and, to no one's surprise, UA continues to lag DL in passengers carried with DL carrying 33% more passengers overall and 50% more domestic passengers.
ATC issues have compounded the traffic reductions with 4% fewer flights (14% for UA) across all 3 airports and 4% fewer passengers.
AA is seeing the largest percentage increase but is still just over half the size of DL from NYC. B6 carries more passengers from NYC than AA does.
UA desperately wants to do a deal w/ B6 but the chances of anything more than a simple codeshare involving the #2 and #3 carriers in any market are slim to none.
it's also worth noting that UA boards an average of 152 passengers/international flight from NYC while DL carries 172.
UA has lost 15% of its flights from NYC due to the EWR capacity restrictions; DL now has 33% more flights from NYC than UA.
Who are the people that are telling us that flying narrowbody international aircraft from NYC makes any sense if the goal is remotely to hold onto if not extend your market lead?
Scott Kirby has been kissing Trump's orange butt non-stop since the day the election was over and it paid off for him. Yes, is an outright merger next ? In today's USA, you kiss ass you get rewarded!
yeah... those EWR capacity cuts are the result of butt-kissing for sure?
Real donations don't help your competitors do better
"In today's USA, you kiss ass you get rewarded!"
Buddy do you know what K Street is? This is not new.
This gets UA back into JFK, a blunder by management, and B6 a better chance of survival. Does it lead to something more along the lines of a codeshare or even an acquisition (and will that get approved) time will tell.
B6 will be bought by UA by the end of the year. They will use the EWR restrictions as excuse to get the DOJ to approve the deal.
UA still controls 65% of EWR and B6 adds another 4-5% which is a higher level of concentration than any other major NE airport.
EWR has been cut dramatically but it isn't exactly a small operation. UA still has the largest single airport operation in the NE at EWR.
Allowing UA to combine w/ someone that is even #2 - eliminating a lower cost competitor - is bad for consumers and it doesn't matter...
UA still controls 65% of EWR and B6 adds another 4-5% which is a higher level of concentration than any other major NE airport.
EWR has been cut dramatically but it isn't exactly a small operation. UA still has the largest single airport operation in the NE at EWR.
Allowing UA to combine w/ someone that is even #2 - eliminating a lower cost competitor - is bad for consumers and it doesn't matter who the players are.
Let's not toast the inevitability of a B6 sellout to UA just yet. all that got approved is a fairly simple joint marketing program. the biggest revenue benefit for B6 is UA's use of Paisly which has nothing to do with NYC size or slots.
We all know Uniteds real intentions. To be in JFK. This is only the beginning.
it takes two to tango and it also takes government approval for major transactions to take place.
UA also wanted to continue to dominate NYC but that went "poof" with the capacity limits which the DOT put on EWR and which handed the "largest NYC airline" title to DL.
Icing on the cake, but B6 needs more to survive in the long run.
In some way, it needs to leverage it presence at JFK & BOS by joining the Star Alliance. As a founding member, UA has veto power over such. Therefore, B6 could provide the domestic leg for Euro & Asian members at both airports enhancing its cash flow.
Another option is for a foreign carrier like Luft Group to provide...
Icing on the cake, but B6 needs more to survive in the long run.
In some way, it needs to leverage it presence at JFK & BOS by joining the Star Alliance. As a founding member, UA has veto power over such. Therefore, B6 could provide the domestic leg for Euro & Asian members at both airports enhancing its cash flow.
Another option is for a foreign carrier like Luft Group to provide partial ownership. Again, another avenue for Star membership. At the present, Der Kaiser is buying into Euro airlines left and right (ITA & AirBaltic). America awaits and B6 is the foot in the door.
Getting UA back to JFK could be good.
Separate subject but why did American Airlines remove all Qatar award availability yesterday? Maybe Ben can figure out why.
They’re back now so nevermind.
Tim. You actually make some great points. If you could just shorten them please. Otherwise most of them are quite informative.
complex thoughts are not conveyed in sound bites.
The bottom line idea is that UA is now very interested in B6 because UA needs to fix its NYC strategic failures.
and yet the strategic "fix" that B6 and UA still has significant competitive concerns that UA fans seem to think don't matter any more even though there are other solutions for B6 that involve less negative impact to consumers with the most significant that...
complex thoughts are not conveyed in sound bites.
The bottom line idea is that UA is now very interested in B6 because UA needs to fix its NYC strategic failures.
and yet the strategic "fix" that B6 and UA still has significant competitive concerns that UA fans seem to think don't matter any more even though there are other solutions for B6 that involve less negative impact to consumers with the most significant that B6 could successfully reorganize and remain as a standalone carrier.
States have just as much ability to sink mergers as the DOJ does. The NEA lawsuit involved about a half dozen states which have just as much standing as the DOJ does. There is no reason why key states are willing to accept higher prices
An even more controversial arrangement than the NEA, which outside of its slot sharing, was more palatable. UA controls an outsized amount of traffic at EWR, and B6 has a sizable presence there, not to mention it is the #2 carrier at JFK. The overlap between these two makes this partnership so problematic. B6 has proven again and again it can't run profitably or on time, and will eventually be absorbed by one of the US3. That US3 won't be UA.
B6 reported its financial results for today and it is notable that B6' CEO said that B6 has modeled the value of the JFK slot swap as part of the deal.
As I said when BlueSky was announced, there is no assurance that B6 will choose to move forward with the slot deal.
And if another carrier does a deal w/ B6 which will have less competitive concerns than UA-B6, BlueSky will be over.
Seething loser.
DOJ just fired two senior anti-trust lawyers hired by this Administration who were against a settlement with HPE who acquired Juniper Networks. There is a new sheriff in town. The game has changed.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/07/29/politics/justice-department-fires-two-senior-antitrust-attorneys
and yet the comment right above mine is what most rational people recognize.
UA screwed up its NYC strategy by becoming overly dependent on EWR which is an airport that has far less capacity than JFK; UA walked away from JFK and now is acting like they should be entitled to get back into JFK while still controlling 2/3 of EWR, even if the size of EWR will be permanently lower than it was for...
and yet the comment right above mine is what most rational people recognize.
UA screwed up its NYC strategy by becoming overly dependent on EWR which is an airport that has far less capacity than JFK; UA walked away from JFK and now is acting like they should be entitled to get back into JFK while still controlling 2/3 of EWR, even if the size of EWR will be permanently lower than it was for much of the time since CO built the hub.
the only losers are those that can't accept that decisions have consequences and can't stand to hear that not everyone bows down to anyone or anything.
lavanderialarry sounds just like one of your multis, Tim.
we get it. Everyone that doesn't toe your line is all the same person.
You really want to accuse others of toeing the line?