Frontier Airlines is expanding in the New York City area in an interesting way, with four daily flights to a single destination. I can’t decide whether this is genius, dumb, or somewhere in between?
In this post:
Frontier Airlines goes all-in between New York & San Juan
For some context, of the “big three” New York City area airports, Frontier Airlines currently only flies to LaGuardia (LGA). The airline hasn’t flown to Kennedy (JFK), while the airline pulled out of Newark (EWR) in early 2022. As noted by @IshrionA, Frontier is now adding service to both Kennedy and Newark, with a total of four daily flights.
As of June 6, 2024, Frontier will add 2x daily flights between New York (JFK) and San Juan (SJU). The flight schedules will be as follows:
F93546 San Juan to New York departing 6:07AM arriving 10:10AM
F93545 New York to San Juan departing 11:08AM arriving 3:07PM
F93548 San Juan to New York departing 8:15PM arriving 12:15AM (+1 day)
F93547 New York to San Juan departing 5:59AM arriving 9:58AM
As of June 28, 2024, Frontier will add 2x daily flights between Newark (EWR) and San Juan (SJU). The flight schedules will be as follows:
F93574 San Juan to Newark departing 6:00AM arriving 10:08AM
F93573 Newark to San Juan departing 11:08AM arriving 3:13PM
F93572 San Juan to Newark departing 8:15PM arriving 12:23AM (+1 day)
F93571 Newark to San Juan departing 5:59AM arriving 10:04AM
Both of these routes cover a distance of ~1,600 miles in each direction, and are blocked at around four hours in each direction. It’s fascinating to see how the airline has nearly identical schedules in both markets.
One logical question might be how Frontier managed to get slots at JFK, given that it’s something other airlines have struggled with. I imagine the airline was able to get access to some off-peak slots, though it remains to be seen for how long the airline can keep those. After all, United Airlines tried to make a return to JFK, but ultimately wasn’t able to maintain permanent slots.
Frontier Airlines has hugely grown its presence in Puerto Rico in recent years, so it’s clear that these planes are “based” in Puerto Rico, and are just turning at the two new airports.
Is this a smart play on Frontier Airlines’ part?
We know that ultra low cost carriers in the United States have been struggling quite a bit lately. Leisure demand has come back incredibly strong post-pandemic, so you’d think that ultra low cost carriers would be doing well, given that they’re targeted at leisure travelers. Unfortunately there are some issues, though:
- A lot of the summer leisure demand has been for travel to Europe, and that’s a destination that US ultra low cost carriers don’t serve
- We’ve seen a huge increase in premium leisure demand, and ultra low cost carriers don’t have as many premium products to sell people
- A large portion of the profits for the legacy US carriers come from their loyalty programs, and in particular their lucrative credit card agreements, and that’s something ultra low cost carriers can’t capitalize on in the same way
- In many ways, legacy airlines have gotten better at competing with ultra low cost carriers, by flying larger aircraft, and shifting their route networks to a lot more leisure destinations
Frontier Airlines management is trying to transform the business by switching up the carrier’s route network. A recent Frontier expansion saw the airline attacking legacy carriers at their hubs, launching many hub-to-hub routes with fairly limited competition.
Along those lines, Frontier’s newest expansion from Kennedy and Newark sure is an interesting one. For one, these are very competitive markets:
- New York to San Juan has up to 10x daily flights, including 7x daily JetBlue flights and 3x daily Delta flights
- Newark to San Juan has up to 5x daily flights, including 3x daily United flights, 1x daily JetBlue flights, and 1x daily Spirit flights
Admittedly there’s a lot of demand between New York and Puerto Rico, but will this truly prove lucrative for Frontier? These are pretty long flights in terms of operating costs, and fares are already really low. Furthermore, Frontier’s costs won’t be that advantageous, since operating out of these airports isn’t cheap, the stations will need to be staffed for just two daily flights, etc.
I don’t know what to make of Frontier’s strategy at this point. Admittedly ultra low cost carriers have long taken the approach of “throw things at the wall and see what sticks.” However, I can’t help but feel like the upside of this expansion is fairly limited, given the competitive landscape, plus the limited non-flying revenue these airlines can earn.
Bottom line
Frontier Airlines is launching service to New York Kennedy, and is returning to Newark. The airline is seemingly doing this with one goal — serving San Juan, with two daily flights from each airport. These are already very crowded and competitive markets, with fairly low fares. I’m curious to see if Frontier can make these routes work, or if this is an experiment that lasts for a few months.
What do you make of Frontier’s JFK and EWR expansion?
I wonder who their customers for this segment are. If people connecting and the connecting flights are at LGA, then customers will find this inconvenient. If people based in New York, then it may be okay if the demand is enough. Also, legacy carriers compete with the low cost carriers on price too. Many of them offer very restrictive and cheap fares in basic economy of which everything is paid for similar to low cost carriers.
Both sides of the Hudson have a huge population of native Puerto Ricans. Whether they can compete long term remains to be seen but the market is there.
Both sides of the Hudson have a huge population of native Puerto Ricans. Whether they can compete long term remains to be seen but the market is there.
What’s up with these super early flights. Do people really want to be at an airport at 4-4:30AM and have to get up at 3AM. Thats madness. This doesn’t sound geared toward tourist travel.
No Thank you , I don’t change my Jetblue to only save couple dollars , flying on jetblue I got everything for Less price for example good service, inflight , comfortable seat, unlimited movies . Direct TV FREE SNACKS if the flight is delay controllable jetblue compensation and giving in free snack at the gate or meal voucher … flying on Frontier is WORST SERVICE IF THE FLIGHT IS DELAY I DONT GET NOTHING… NO THANK YOU … JETBLUE US MY FAVORITE AIRLINE
Was surprised to hear from some friends that live in NYC that they will avoid certain airports entirely as they're too difficult to get to (given they don't have cars) so I think there is some logic to this
This is true. Many New Yorkers do not have cars, especially the customer base who will be flying Frontier to San Juan from New York. As a result, they look for flights based on specific airports. I used to live in NYC, and I would also mostly look to fly out of specific airports (unless I'm taking a long-haul flight).
There is a huge amount of demand for travel to Puerto Rico from NYC. Since...
This is true. Many New Yorkers do not have cars, especially the customer base who will be flying Frontier to San Juan from New York. As a result, they look for flights based on specific airports. I used to live in NYC, and I would also mostly look to fly out of specific airports (unless I'm taking a long-haul flight).
There is a huge amount of demand for travel to Puerto Rico from NYC. Since LGA doesn't/can't have flights to SJU, JFK makes sense. A lot of New Yorkers won't look for flights out of EWR. EWR makes sense for those in Manhattan, particularly those South of Central Park, and the Upper West side. The time to JFK and EWR from the Upper East Side is almost the same for both. But a cab is very expensive. And a lot of the customers flying Frontier on this route will likely be concentrated in Queens and Brooklyn. As a result, JFK makes sense. Same is true for Newark. If someone wanted to get from Queens to EWR, it would take them 20-40+ minutes on the subway, and then another hour to get to EWR from Penn Station (taking the NJ train), and it will cost them about $19 each way for transportation. This is why JFK makes sense for many. I'm sure this route will do pretty well for Frontier.
Splitting frequencies between two airports at identical times seems a weird way to maximise profitability. .......
Again, endless VFR demand from NYC to SJU. Times are due to slots (or lack thereof early and late)
Visual Flight Rules? Endless what?
Visiting Friends and Relatives. As opposed to vacation or business travel.
NYC-SJU is a bottomless pit of VFR demand - witness the former Tower Air 747s that used to operate in this market and the endless B6 frequencies that operate today. Not exactly high yield but with F9s cost structure should be fine.
Just another way to put more pressure on B6....
As for the timings, JFK and EWR slots do NOT apply before 6AM or after 10:59PM so that explains the 5:59AM departures and...
NYC-SJU is a bottomless pit of VFR demand - witness the former Tower Air 747s that used to operate in this market and the endless B6 frequencies that operate today. Not exactly high yield but with F9s cost structure should be fine.
Just another way to put more pressure on B6....
As for the timings, JFK and EWR slots do NOT apply before 6AM or after 10:59PM so that explains the 5:59AM departures and the late evening arrivals. Someone gave up some midday slots but those are not nearly as valuable as the afternoon slots.... Probably AA which seems to have plenty of slots these days!
For Frontier to grab market share on already crowded routes is to come in with cheaper fares. So far the bottom of the barrel fare business model isn't turning a profit. (To be fair don't know if Frontier is cash flow positive).
If Frontier Airlines does poorly in a city, they simply drop it and move on to other profitable destinations. No big whoop! Once Spirit drags itself to an its final flight, a world of opportunities will occur within their network. Die Spirit, die.
Like what B6 employees should already be doing, Frontier is merely planning ahead for the day when Carl Icahn sends B6 into the dustbin of aviation history
Frontier will enter and exit both airports in the blink of an eye.
The question is who had JFK slots to lease and how the FAA agreed to additional flights at EWR at decent times given that the FAA still limits flights at EWR.
B6 appears to be the target since they are the only carrier that serves both NYC airports.
Given their high density, they could make money with these low fares. DL and UA probably can command enough of a revenue premium to justify...
The question is who had JFK slots to lease and how the FAA agreed to additional flights at EWR at decent times given that the FAA still limits flights at EWR.
B6 appears to be the target since they are the only carrier that serves both NYC airports.
Given their high density, they could make money with these low fares. DL and UA probably can command enough of a revenue premium to justify their higher costs in addition to being able to connect passengers onto those flights from their NE US networks.
Well Timmy, Delta can do anything, right?
Pretty much!
you just chose to ignore the UA part of the comment - because ....?
Let us know the terminal as soon as announced. I would pay a premium to stop using T5.
While the background on the JFK slots would be good to know, this isn't a story about NY as much as San Juan. Frontier has massively expanded at SJU post pandemic and has almost systemically targeted every route conducted by Spirit and Jetblue aimed at locals.