China Airlines Launching Seattle Flights In July 2024

China Airlines Launching Seattle Flights In July 2024

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Taiwan-based China Airlines is planning on adding a new route to the United States. I can’t believe how competitive this market is becoming, and how quickly it’s happening…

China Airlines will fly to Seattle

As of July 14, 2024, China Airlines will start flying between Taipei (TPE) and Seattle (SEA). The flight will operate with the following schedule, as flagged by AeroRoutes:

CI22 Taipei to Seattle departing 11:30PM arriving 7:50PM
CI21 Seattle to Taipei departing 1:40AM arriving 5:05AM (+1 day)

The 6,075-mile flight will operate 5x weekly. The eastbound flight is blocked at 11hr20min and will operate every day except Wednesday and Friday, while the westbound flight is blocked at 12hr25min and will operate every day except Thursday and Saturday. This route will actually mark a service resumption, as China Airlines last operated this route back in 2008.

China Airlines will use an Airbus A350-900 for the route, featuring 306 seats. This includes 32 business class seats, 31 premium economy seats, and 243 economy seats. You can read my review of China Airlines’ A350 business class here.

This new flight is now bookable through the end of the summer schedule (October 27, 2024), and should soon become bookable for the winter schedule and beyond. China Airlines’ other destinations in the United States include Los Angeles (LAX), New York (JFK), Ontario (ONT), and San Francisco (SFO).

China Airlines A350 business class

Taipei to Seattle is becoming very competitive!

The level of service growth we’re seeing between Taipei and Seattle is pretty unprecedented. Currently EVA Air flies this route up to 10x weekly, and has the market to itself. However, this route is about to get much busier:

So in total, the market will go from 10x weekly flights to 25x weekly flights. I’m curious, can anyone think of another long haul international route that went from one airline to four airlines over the course of a couple of months?

This is a market that EVA Air has been serving for quite some time, and quite successfully, based on how service has grown. Then we’ve known for some time that Starlux planned to add service to Seattle as well, but Delta beat Starlux to the punch (it’s anyone’s guess if that was a proactive competitive response, or if the route was in Delta’s roadmap prior to that). And now China Airlines wants in on the action as well.

I’m curious if this market is able to sustain 25 weekly flights with even half decent yields. It seems to me like if there were an airline that might reduce service to Seattle, it would be EVA Air, despite being the established player.

That’s both because of the amount of service the airline offers, plus EVA Air being in Star Alliance, so having limited connectivity beyond Seattle. Meanwhile China Airlines is part of SkyTeam (so has Delta connectivity), while Starlux has a partnership with Alaska.

Starlux Airlines A350 business class

Bottom line

As of July 2024, China Airlines will launch a new route between Taipei and Seattle, operating 5x weekly. What’s remarkable is that this market is going from one airline to four airlines over the course of just a couple of months, which is a level of service growth we almost never see. I’m very curious if this level of service can be sustained.

What do you make of China Airlines’ plans to launch Seattle flights? Do you think the market can sustain four airlines?

Conversations (92)
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  1. Midge Guest

    I am very exited as I fly this route monthly for work

  2. UncleRonnie Gold

    I kinda get where Gidyup11 is coming from. You get up in the morning and check OMAAT and see that yesterday's thread about HAN/cabin baggage/missing door plugs has 22 new messages. Sweet, I'll dive back in! Oh poop, it's just 20 new posts of people arguing with Tim about Delta's profitability..... :(

    1. gideyup11 Member

      Exactly!!! Thank You for understanding.

    2. Tim Dunn Diamond

      thank you for ACCURATELY noting that "people arguing with Tim"

      The real question is why some people are so unable to accept reality that they distort and misstate all kinds of facts and data just so they can manufacture a reality which only exists in their heads.

    3. UncleRonnie Gold

      While true Tim, you do enjoy all the attention at the same time :)

    4. Tim Dunn Diamond

      no, I don't look for or enjoy the attention.
      I do make it my business to correct the patently false statements and flawed logic that is rampant in aviation social media.

  3. Paul Guest

    SEA-TPE was almost always more expensive than comparable YVR-TPE flights. It's going to be interesting to see if this frequency increase would depress Pacific NW-originating airfares to Asia.
    Interestingly enough, last year’s TPE transit volume was 17.5 percent higher than the 2019 level before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, even if the overall 2023 traffic was still at 73 percent compared to 2019.
    This SEA expansion looks like TPE transit-focussed, but in part also...

    SEA-TPE was almost always more expensive than comparable YVR-TPE flights. It's going to be interesting to see if this frequency increase would depress Pacific NW-originating airfares to Asia.
    Interestingly enough, last year’s TPE transit volume was 17.5 percent higher than the 2019 level before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, even if the overall 2023 traffic was still at 73 percent compared to 2019.
    This SEA expansion looks like TPE transit-focussed, but in part also as defensive moves

    1. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Canadian airlines take full advantage of the currency difference between the US and Canada as they try to pull traffic via Canadian hubs.

      All of Canada has way more international service than would be expected.

      and ALL of Asia's "functioning" connecting gateways are working overtime to make up for the lost capacity due to the capacity restrictions on US-China flights.
      Tokyo HND is full based on the bilateral between the US and Japan and...

      Canadian airlines take full advantage of the currency difference between the US and Canada as they try to pull traffic via Canadian hubs.

      All of Canada has way more international service than would be expected.

      and ALL of Asia's "functioning" connecting gateways are working overtime to make up for the lost capacity due to the capacity restrictions on US-China flights.
      Tokyo HND is full based on the bilateral between the US and Japan and the economic inviability of NRT as a market for local service.
      Asiana, Delta and Korean are all holding back adding capacity at ICN until a decision about approval of the Asiana/Korean merger is made.
      Hong Kong is facing all kinds of macroeconomic and political issues.

      Taiwan is the "most functioning" hub in NE Asia.

  4. El Cheapo Guest

    I just hope more airlines offering more flights means more competition and lower airfares across the Pacific. Airfares to Asia are much more expensive now than they were pre—pandemic.

  5. Drew Guest

    Why Minneapolis don't have a flight to Taiwan? Why don't China Airlines go to Minneapolis also.

    1. ConcordeBoy Diamond

      Reverse the question: why would they?

      The overwhelming majority of Taiwanese-Americans (immigrants and 1st-gen) live in California, with Washington, Texas, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois constituting the only other states to hold more than a single digit percentage of that population.

      Taiwanese businesses are even more concentrated in the California, Washington, New York triangle.

      Combine that with Delta not having a j/v with China Airlines, and there's very little incentive for anyone to add...

      Reverse the question: why would they?

      The overwhelming majority of Taiwanese-Americans (immigrants and 1st-gen) live in California, with Washington, Texas, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois constituting the only other states to hold more than a single digit percentage of that population.

      Taiwanese businesses are even more concentrated in the California, Washington, New York triangle.

      Combine that with Delta not having a j/v with China Airlines, and there's very little incentive for anyone to add a flight from Taiwan to MSP. They'd be better off with a second flight to Seoul.

  6. gideyup11 Member

    Just a PSA question: Is there anyway to filter out all the Tim Dunn posts (and the back/forth that results)? I am interested in the aviation industry, hence my daily OMAAT reading. But all the Tim Dunn Delta stuff is tiring, and makes my daily OMAAT reading much less enjoyable. Please Ben, enable a filter out feature in your blog! Thank You :)

    1. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Tell you what.
      You tell the people who stop that ENDLESSLY post about how Delta won't succeed at this or that and then use their own inaccurate "proof" to argue their point.
      And then tell the United fankids that have a vastly inflated view of their company's worth and reality to also stick a cork in it.

      Delta flies SEA-TPE. Before I ever joined the conversation, there were endlessly people that were predicting...

      Tell you what.
      You tell the people who stop that ENDLESSLY post about how Delta won't succeed at this or that and then use their own inaccurate "proof" to argue their point.
      And then tell the United fankids that have a vastly inflated view of their company's worth and reality to also stick a cork in it.

      Delta flies SEA-TPE. Before I ever joined the conversation, there were endlessly people that were predicting DL's doom and telling us why UA does so well to Asia.

      Actual facts - not internet hot air - tells why DL has done what it has done and why it continues to grow.

      SEA-TPE may or may not succeed for any of the 4 airlines but the endless BS by people has to end if aviation chat forums are to return to some semblance of peaceful.

    2. derek Guest

      I disagree with Tim Dunn part of the time but his comments are sometimes very useful.

    3. yoloswag420 Guest

      Y'all need to learn how to stop getting bothered by ONE person on the internet. Imagine just scrolling past his comments, if you don't want to see them. I wonder how some of you operate in real life, if you Tim Dunn triggers you this hard.

      In fact, the comments I want to filter out are the vapid, nonsense comments like yours complaining about Tim, as they actually add nothing of substance.

    4. gideyup11 Member

      Ok y'all win. Will continue to scroll past / sometimes read all the Tim Dunn Delta posts / and all the childish back and forth. I have no horse in the race, Delta, United, AA, it's all interesting. BUT, when every post comment from Tim Dunn (even if the post is like this one about China Airlines) goes back to something about Delta, THAT is the tiring part. Do y'all understand where I'm coming from? Geesh...

    5. Tim Dunn Diamond

      you do realize that Delta will fly the route and that there are people in the comments that addressed Delta's likelihood of lasting before I ever joined the comments?

      I am more than happy to let people discuss what they want but I correct many statements and they aren't just about Delta.

    6. ConcordeBoy Diamond

      Do y'all understand where I'm coming from?

      Not really.

      How hard is it to scroll past what you don't want to read?

      You whining about it, is 10x more annoying.

  7. GS Guest

    if DL is as profitable as Tim says and blows everyone out of the water, then they are simply not growing enough. As a shareholder, I would be irate that $DAL is not growing more! What a strategic blunder leaving all that opportunity on the table.

    1. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Delta compares itself to other companies and not just airlines; its strategies are not to grow the largest but to generate the best returns for its investors.
      That is part of why they are the most valuable US airline to investors.

      And Delta DOES manage to be the largest in many metrics.

      And if people want to keep this discussion related to SEA-TPE, let us know the profit margins of the 3 Taiwanese airlines...

      Delta compares itself to other companies and not just airlines; its strategies are not to grow the largest but to generate the best returns for its investors.
      That is part of why they are the most valuable US airline to investors.

      And Delta DOES manage to be the largest in many metrics.

      And if people want to keep this discussion related to SEA-TPE, let us know the profit margins of the 3 Taiwanese airlines - some of which are part of conglomerates - and you will see why DL is able to compete very favorably not just against US airlines but also against most foreign airlines.

  8. yoloswag420 Guest

    How did a CI route launch turn into a Delta debate?

    Anyways @Ben, you should note that this route is wide-open as of now. Bookable on Flying Blue for 83k and probably all other SkyTeam partners. CI's schedule makes it good for other Asia connections, which you can do for about 20 to 40k Flying Blue miles.

  9. Tim Dunn Diamond

    A number of US airlines have just participated or are participating in a JP Morgan investor conference today.
    Delta affirmed its investor guidance and, combined w/ what other airlines are saying, will likely be the only US airline that will be profitable in the first quarter. DL's guidance also says that it will likely be the most profitable.
    As much as some people resist talking about finances, it is precisely in situations like...

    A number of US airlines have just participated or are participating in a JP Morgan investor conference today.
    Delta affirmed its investor guidance and, combined w/ what other airlines are saying, will likely be the only US airline that will be profitable in the first quarter. DL's guidance also says that it will likely be the most profitable.
    As much as some people resist talking about finances, it is precisely in situations like this SEA-TPE route that Delta's financial strength matters.
    The Taiwanese airlines all compete for the same market in Taiwan while DL has the clear advantage in the US including in SEA.
    And Delta noted that it is particularly excited about the Pacific; as I have repeatedly noted, they are in the rebuilding stage for their Pacific stage after dismantling the NRT hub, getting rid of the 777s and building an almost entirely A350 and A330NEO TPAC fleet and getting past covid. They expect 2024 will be their most profitable year on the Pacific ever.
    Delta will use its profits to rebuild its network in the Pacific and have no delusions about what they will be up against. But they have clear advantages including profits that are larger than any other airline and will slowly and methodically rebuild.

    They also noted that they are in the middle of the industry in terms of fleet spending; using about half of their cash flow for new aircraft even as they continue to grow. Without naming names, they compare themselves to AA on one side that is spending very little on fleet and not growing and UA which is using all of its cash and more to grow and still not generating revenues or profits as large as DL.

    DL will bite off one of these super competitive route additions per year but this won't be the last.

    1. derek Guest

      1. Saying Delta is the most profitable is like saying Osama was the most successful in September 2001. High profitable means the consumer is paying too much. Some profit is good but not huge profit.

      2. Northwest was the co- leader along with United. Delta should have kept the name and should have built on it, not fallen behind.

      3. Last sentence...Delta choosing the most competitive? Why did it run from Hong Kong? Run from Singapore ?

    2. Tim Dunn Diamond

      1. Delta's profits come from the diversity of its revenue and the fact that it provides a service that customers want to pay for.
      Arguing that some one is charging too much means nothing in a free market economy. Companies charge what the market will bear.
      The argument could easily extend to any other product/service.
      2. Northwest was NOT a co-leader with United before the DL/NW merger. NW was way out in...

      1. Delta's profits come from the diversity of its revenue and the fact that it provides a service that customers want to pay for.
      Arguing that some one is charging too much means nothing in a free market economy. Companies charge what the market will bear.
      The argument could easily extend to any other product/service.
      2. Northwest was NOT a co-leader with United before the DL/NW merger. NW was way out in front. UA/CO helped close the gap but it was only after DL started cutting the NRT hub and replacing 747s with smaller aircraft that NW then DL lost the lead. 3. DL never served SIN any other way than via NRT. We have been over this a million times. DL had a choice to give up its hub at Tokyo, move its US flights to HND, or stay at NRT. They chose #1 and 2 and the results are clear. NRT no longer carriers the highest fare traffic to/from Tokyo and DL is at HND where the best traffic now flies to/from Tokyo.
      DL has a JV with ICN and is building it.

      None of that change that DL just said that its Pacific is expected to be more profitable in 2024 than ever in the company's history. It is beyond nonsensical to think that SEA for DL - one of just 2 hubs that will have daily nonstop service to 4 destinations in E. Asia - doesn't make money.

      But we have seen that people quote dated stories, use cherrypicked data and then can't understand why someone that understands the industry constantly wins the debates.

      Delta is in a position to grow Asia for the first time in more than a decade. They have 56 TPAC capable aircraft coming in the next 5 years, including the ex-Latam A350s that will be converted to DL international standards.

      You all fawn over UA's TPAC growth but can't accept that if UA can make money, so can other airlines. DL just happens to have a much better total business model than UA which is why they made $2 billion more in profits than UA last year.

      UA has talking breathlessly about growth and yet DL matched their growth rate in 2023 and UA is running around the world looking for airplanes. DL will get more TPAC capable aircraft in the next 5 years than UA.
      UA is running around the world for aircraft and just told Boeing to give up on the MAX 10 which means lower growth.

      DL will grow in Asia. this is the first of many.

    3. derek Guest

      Bottom line is that Delta may be good but it ruined its standing in the Pacific by gutting Northwest. In fact, the Northwest name should have been kept and the Delta name retired. Either that or buy the Pan Am name. Delta did have rights to use the Pan Am name for 1 year for transatlantic flights.

    4. ConcordeBoy Diamond

      Bottom line is that Delta may be good but it ruined its standing in the Pacific by gutting Northwest. In fact, the Northwest name should have been kept and the Delta name retired.

      First: LOL.

      Second, do you think these carriers just do guesswork in multi-billion dollar acquisitions? Or do you not realize that they devote millions in money+manhours examining how much equity they can derive from every aspect of their acquired IP.

      ...

      Bottom line is that Delta may be good but it ruined its standing in the Pacific by gutting Northwest. In fact, the Northwest name should have been kept and the Delta name retired.

      First: LOL.

      Second, do you think these carriers just do guesswork in multi-billion dollar acquisitions? Or do you not realize that they devote millions in money+manhours examining how much equity they can derive from every aspect of their acquired IP.

      Why do you think ValuJet took the name of the much-smaller AirTran?

      Why do you think United kept the livery (and even AOC) of the much smaller Continental?

      The NW brand had nowhere near the market equity proposition as DL.

    5. Mark Guest

      Yes, DL makes more of a profit, but that is thanks to structural strengths of four fortress hubs, without even competing airports in the cities. 30 years ago, EA went out of business, giving them almost full dominance of a city without a near-sized competitor or even a competing airport, thanks to their strong-arm tactics.

      The CPEs at ATL are also among the lowest, giving them a structural advantage that will pad their profits.

      You...

      Yes, DL makes more of a profit, but that is thanks to structural strengths of four fortress hubs, without even competing airports in the cities. 30 years ago, EA went out of business, giving them almost full dominance of a city without a near-sized competitor or even a competing airport, thanks to their strong-arm tactics.

      The CPEs at ATL are also among the lowest, giving them a structural advantage that will pad their profits.

      You ask why other airlines don’t “just add a hub”. There are so few hubs that aren’t already covered, so that new hubs generally underperform, with Exhibit A being DL’s SEA, shown to be the weakest among the US hubs, unable to support more than a handful of TPAC flights, in spite of its Pacific hub status.

      So yes, DL makes more money than others, but not due to a premium product or any kind of innovation. They enjoy the fortune of monopolized hubs.

      And UA is catching up while showing a great deal of innovation. Certainly a more interesting airline to watch, especially for aviation enthusiasts.

    6. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Mark,
      you and others use the same tired argument over and over.
      Honestly, just answer the question about what Delta managed to do for the past 45 years of deregulation that American and United couldn't figure out how to do?
      If you truly believe that Delta makes all of its money because of monopolizing four hubs and losing money in four others including NYC which is DL's second largest operation -larger than...

      Mark,
      you and others use the same tired argument over and over.
      Honestly, just answer the question about what Delta managed to do for the past 45 years of deregulation that American and United couldn't figure out how to do?
      If you truly believe that Delta makes all of its money because of monopolizing four hubs and losing money in four others including NYC which is DL's second largest operation -larger than DTW, MSP and SLC - then you are hopelessly biased and delusional.

      as for your comment about United catching up, the data says otherwise. DL made the same profit in 2023 as it did in 2019 but on more revenue so its profit margin went from 10% to 8%.
      In 2023, UA made less than it did in 2019 and their net income margin fell from 7.5% in 2019 to 5% in 2023.
      So, no, United is not "catching up"

      I love the debate but when you and others use inaccurate or cherrypicked data, it makes it easy for me to win the debate - and yet you keep coming back and doing the same thing over and over and over again.

      DL is STILL the most profitable airline because they run a better business all around.
      UA does a fine job but they have not closed the gap in earnings with Delta despite years of trying.

    7. Mark Guest

      It’s not what they did, it’s how they got “lucky” to have their largest competitor at their primary hub (Eastern) go out of business. No other airline has that kind of monopoly. They have a similar monopoly in SLC.

      Along those lines, NW had monopoly hubs in DTW and MSP. UA was not going to merge with NW and end up with an overlapping Pacific network, even if NW’s would be dismantled under DL...

      It’s not what they did, it’s how they got “lucky” to have their largest competitor at their primary hub (Eastern) go out of business. No other airline has that kind of monopoly. They have a similar monopoly in SLC.

      Along those lines, NW had monopoly hubs in DTW and MSP. UA was not going to merge with NW and end up with an overlapping Pacific network, even if NW’s would be dismantled under DL management.

      Every UA and AA hub has either a large competitor or a neighboring airport to decrease their pricing power.

      Airlines generally are not successful organically building a hub. Exhibit A: DL’s hub in SEA, underperforming domestically and the primary Asian gateway that only serves three Asian destinations, with a fourth added as part of a turf war with three Asian carriers who provide more premium service.

    8. Tim Dunn Diamond

      You simply can't say it.
      Delta has outsmarted American and United in the 45 years of deregulation.
      Do you even know who supported deregulation and who didn't?

      Delta supported deregulation and moved from the 6th largest airline in the US to now the largest by revenue and also the most profitable.

      Neither American or United have built new hubs. Regardless of whether you think SEA or BOS are profitable for DL,...

      You simply can't say it.
      Delta has outsmarted American and United in the 45 years of deregulation.
      Do you even know who supported deregulation and who didn't?

      Delta supported deregulation and moved from the 6th largest airline in the US to now the largest by revenue and also the most profitable.

      Neither American or United have built new hubs. Regardless of whether you think SEA or BOS are profitable for DL, they are part of DL's system and both are growing.

      Yes, Delta outsmarted its competitors and, if you don't think a $2 billion per year profit advantage doesn't matter - and that is only compared to United, it is far larger for every other competitor - then you simply have no idea how business works.

      Cling to your "they just lucked out" nonsense. Going to LAS or winning the lottery is also just luck but if someone succeeds at it, they are positioned very differently compared to how they were before.

      You and others just can't accept that Delta has done it right and has strong and growing advantages. SEA just happens to be one of those. If nothing else, it is a lower cost way to fly from the US to Asia than any other hub and it sits right above SFO which means DL has better coverage of the US than UA does at SFO.

    9. Mark Guest

      You’re right. I can’t say it since even you acknowledge they lucked out with your Vegas comparison.

      Having a monopoly and jacking up prices in those markets is not outsmarting anyone, it’s taking advantage of history in the aviation industry.

      Outsmarting would be making markets work that others can’t, including all the markets and stations DL closed.

    10. Tim Dunn Diamond

      no, I did NOT say they lucked out. You did.
      I said they outsmarted the competition.
      You can't say that.

      Delta closed DFW, CVG and MEM as hubs and merged with NW to gain DTW and MSP and then built BOS and SEA and added onto LAX to become the largest carrier at LAX. Any carrier could have grown and closed hubs. DL did it more than any other carrier. It isn't luck...

      no, I did NOT say they lucked out. You did.
      I said they outsmarted the competition.
      You can't say that.

      Delta closed DFW, CVG and MEM as hubs and merged with NW to gain DTW and MSP and then built BOS and SEA and added onto LAX to become the largest carrier at LAX. Any carrier could have grown and closed hubs. DL did it more than any other carrier. It isn't luck but a realization of what works and positioning itself to get what works and getting rid of what doesn't.

      They outsmarted US with the LGA/DCA slot swap and are the largest slot holder in the US and the largest carrier at LGA, and JFK and still the 2nd largest carrier at DCA by flights.

      They didn't just "luck out" they figured out how the game was played and are winning.

      And you can't admit that Delta has been more consistently well-run. Look at the mgmt histories at AA and UA over the past 45 years - even the last 20 - and tell me where there has been a consistency of strategy at those two airlines.

    11. Jason Guest

      For many years after deregulation, Delta was seen as a basket case. Look at stories of it in the late 1990s/ early aughts, and you'll see several stories and years of trauma, culminating in a bankruptcy process immediately prior to the Northwest merger. They were not always this amazing profitable and fabulous airline in the 45 years since deregulation. They have, though, shaped up quite nicely in the years since the Northwest merger, and now do quite well.

    12. Tim Dunn Diamond

      I'm sorry but it is patently false and your opinion only that Delta was a basket case before the NW merger.
      In fact, the entire legacy sector of the industry couldn't figure out how to survive let alone thrive under deregulation.
      It was the low cost carriers and esp. Southwest that was the winner.
      In fact, AA, DL, UA PLUS AS and HA are the only legacy airlines left. They became the...

      I'm sorry but it is patently false and your opinion only that Delta was a basket case before the NW merger.
      In fact, the entire legacy sector of the industry couldn't figure out how to survive let alone thrive under deregulation.
      It was the low cost carriers and esp. Southwest that was the winner.
      In fact, AA, DL, UA PLUS AS and HA are the only legacy airlines left. They became the survivors and outlasted or acquired their competitors.

      DL was no ore strategically confused about what it needed to be than the rest of the industry. Do you remember Allegis and UA's employee ownership disaster which culminated in their pilots "squeezing until they killed the golden goose" - which landed UA in the longest and most costly bankruptcy restructuring in airline history.
      AA is actually the carrier that has fallen the most and still hasn't figured out how to win.

      DL still managed to grow, retain its leadership in service among legacy carriers, and, yes, outsmarted a whole lot of competitors and the list is still growing.

      The NW merger did position to lead the industry which they now do but it wasn't dumb luck. It was years of figuring out what worked, sticking to the plan, and succeeding where others have failed.

      As the most valuable legacy carrier in terms of market cap with the highest revenue and highest profits of any airline in the world, yes, they are doing quite well.

      They should be more than capable of making SEA-TPE work or figuring out something else even more.
      And, as much as some struggle to grasp it, DL is on the verge on major growth to Asia.

    13. Jason Guest

      Gosh. Somebody really needs to relax.

      You go on and on in several posts above about how Delta was head and shoulders above everybody else and was perfect for 45 years.

      My only point was - it wasnt. I make no claims about other airlines - I'm well aware of the Allegis fiasco at United and the trevails at AA. Nobody was perfect. Not sure why you talk about them.

      Again, you talk...

      Gosh. Somebody really needs to relax.

      You go on and on in several posts above about how Delta was head and shoulders above everybody else and was perfect for 45 years.

      My only point was - it wasnt. I make no claims about other airlines - I'm well aware of the Allegis fiasco at United and the trevails at AA. Nobody was perfect. Not sure why you talk about them.

      Again, you talk on and on about how DL was the best for 45 years. It wasnt. It, like others, made various strategic mistake s etc. It took over 10 years, some would say the better part of 20, from when it bought Pan Am's European assets, including JFK, and actually made money. Throughout the 90s that purchase was widely derided, and for years their presence at JFK yo-yod. They lost tons of money, and by 2005 they, like others, went bankrupt. Here's a concise history: https://platform01consulting.com/corporate-turnaround-story-delta-airlines/#:~:text=In%20the%20early%202000s%2C%20Delta,2001%2C%20leading%20to%20major%20bankruptcies.

      Delta is doing well today, no doubt about. They shrewedly did the DCA/LGA with US Air 10 years ago, or so, which positioned them very well in NYC, and they are now seeing the fruits of that. They are a well managed machine now, no doubt about it. But they havent always been (and nobody has been), and only really since they merged with Northwest, eliminated excess DL and NW hubs, and had a major management shakeup did DL become what it is today. There was no guarantee that it would happen like this. Good managment in the last 15 or so years really made what's happening today. No doubt about it.

      Who knows if SEA-TPE will work. By this time next year we should know.

      But again, you went on and on how they've been great for 45 years. They havent and made many mistakes and had major challenges, just like others did. They're doing well now, yes, but that's no guarantee they will continue.

      Also, FYI, I have worked in the airline industry in network planning and finance both domestically and internationally, and have contacts/ friends/ colleagues at all the big airlines. They get a major laugh/ think you're a laughing stock with your insanely manic posts. Keep the laughs coming!

    14. Tim Dunn Diamond

      I simply have not said that Delta was perfect for 45 years. You exaggerate and misstate what I say in order to make arguments that don't logically stand up.

      Delta has long been more profitable than the rest of the industry. The difference is that DL's finances are now much better not just than its competitor airlines but also better than a large number of S&P 500 non-airline companies.

      If you claim you worked in...

      I simply have not said that Delta was perfect for 45 years. You exaggerate and misstate what I say in order to make arguments that don't logically stand up.

      Delta has long been more profitable than the rest of the industry. The difference is that DL's finances are now much better not just than its competitor airlines but also better than a large number of S&P 500 non-airline companies.

      If you claim you worked in areas of airlines where you had access to all of the data (and still do), then it is no surprise you don't any more but you didn't lose your bias (which is NO surprise)

    15. ll5777779 Member

      Gonna have to continue pressing you on the fortress hub point, Tim. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, all significant US cities with large populations but no secondary airports - is it really "strategy" that they ended up with these hubs? In one of your comments, you say that Delta's profits come from the diversity of its revenue and the fact that it provides a service customers want to pay for - but you're completely ignoring how...

      Gonna have to continue pressing you on the fortress hub point, Tim. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC, all significant US cities with large populations but no secondary airports - is it really "strategy" that they ended up with these hubs? In one of your comments, you say that Delta's profits come from the diversity of its revenue and the fact that it provides a service customers want to pay for - but you're completely ignoring how monopoly power in these markets forces customers to pay way higher prices than if there were actually competitors.

      Btw - nobody is saying that DL is ONLY profitable because of these hubs, and certainly their other hubs are large, important, and contribute to profitability. But they are a key part of this conversation. Wall street has rightly rewarded DL with a higher valuation (though interestingly, UA and DL trade at similar P/E ratios...) because of these structural market advantages.

      Now on this topic specifically - Tim, your usual spiel around DL's systemwide profitability is largely irrelevant to the microeconomics of competing in SEA against BR, CI, and JX. They all have much lower cost bases compared to DL (due to much cheaper labor in Taiwan) but deliver better customer experiences. I would expect O&D traffic in J to be roughly equal between TW and US (and mostly from Microsoft, Amazon, and the semiconductor industry) - but given the flexibility of corporate contracts these days, it's unclear to me why any business passenger would choose DL over the other 3. Leisure traffic is the only place where DL wins on brand strength alone - but that's hardly a prize worth celebrating about.

    16. Jason Guest

      All good but guess what-Amazon doesn’t pay for employees to fly in J. Even to Europe and Asia. If employees want to be up front they either have to pay themselves or use an upgrade. Amazon’s policy is lowest fare. Most people I know at Amazon suck it up or try for an upgrade. The company doesn’t pay for J. In fact, most companies in the tech space are notoriously cheap and don’t pay for...

      All good but guess what-Amazon doesn’t pay for employees to fly in J. Even to Europe and Asia. If employees want to be up front they either have to pay themselves or use an upgrade. Amazon’s policy is lowest fare. Most people I know at Amazon suck it up or try for an upgrade. The company doesn’t pay for J. In fact, most companies in the tech space are notoriously cheap and don’t pay for J. Apple is the exception with their pre Covid well publicized J class purchases to Shanghai, but that’s the exception. Not the rule.

    17. Tim Dunn Diamond

      first, if you actually know average fares from DL's core 4 hubs, they do not have monopolistic pricing.
      but the real issue is that people somehow think that DL can operate four hubs that make tons of money and 4 coastal hubs that are at best breakeven and, according to many on the internet, lose money.
      It is simply illogical to think that DL could make SO MUCH more money at its hubs...

      first, if you actually know average fares from DL's core 4 hubs, they do not have monopolistic pricing.
      but the real issue is that people somehow think that DL can operate four hubs that make tons of money and 4 coastal hubs that are at best breakeven and, according to many on the internet, lose money.
      It is simply illogical to think that DL could make SO MUCH more money at its hubs and neither AA or UA could figure out how to do it at all.
      It is all beyond preposterous. But if it makes you go to sleep at night to think that DL has a huge bucket of money that AA and UA couldn't figure out how to find, then go for it.

      And it is true throughout the industry that US carriers have inferior service compared to Asian carriers and US carriers do carry plenty of corporate traffic.
      Another one of those things that make you go "hmm"

      Let us know when someone folds in this market but I'm betting that DL counted the cost before it jumped in and has the willpower (and cash) to make the route work.

    18. YYR Guest

      BOS is very clearly profitable for DL; LAX and NYC likely are too though probably at lower margins than ATL/MSP/SLC.

      AA has no clue what they're doing and UA taking eons to digest Continental certainly didn't help although they seem to be turning a page and at least have a cohesive hub structure in place.

      Tim just makes himself an easy target by latching onto every little thing DL does and calling it completely infallible....

      BOS is very clearly profitable for DL; LAX and NYC likely are too though probably at lower margins than ATL/MSP/SLC.

      AA has no clue what they're doing and UA taking eons to digest Continental certainly didn't help although they seem to be turning a page and at least have a cohesive hub structure in place.

      Tim just makes himself an easy target by latching onto every little thing DL does and calling it completely infallible. The contentious theme of this blog the past 6 months seems to be that Delta is getting their a** kicked in Seattle and Tim doesn't want to acknowledge it. You want to know the benefit of being the most profitable airline? That you can afford to take risks and lose money in some spots. AA bailed pretty quickly from AUS- maybe if they had a better balance sheet they could've stuck it out longer. DL has taken the long game in SEA and then progressively extended the time horizon on when the investment will pay off. Maybe it never will? Taking risks like TPE service will almost certainly lose money in the short-term (especially now with Starlux and China Airlines), but that's not the point. I think the bigger question for Tim and his friends in Atlanta: when do you choose to stop the bleeding in SEA and focus on better opportunities elsewhere?

    19. Tim Dunn Diamond

      but you really have no data to support any of your statements about profitability, right? You are just spitballing based on your own bias and then you wonder why I keep pressing the issue.

      Every airline has developmental flying.
      There are plenty of people that think Delta doesn't make money (or very little of it at BOS, LGA, JFK, LAX and SEA).
      The fact that you bothered to draw the line at...

      but you really have no data to support any of your statements about profitability, right? You are just spitballing based on your own bias and then you wonder why I keep pressing the issue.

      Every airline has developmental flying.
      There are plenty of people that think Delta doesn't make money (or very little of it at BOS, LGA, JFK, LAX and SEA).
      The fact that you bothered to draw the line at SEA doesn't make your decision right and others wrong.

      The real question = which you and others don't want to face - is how DL managed to build a business model that is so much more profitable than AA and UA including being able to support hubs that don't make money.

      Your argument isn't even logical. But if you followed your arguments through to their logical conclusion, then DL does have the money to burn on money-losing hubs and they will maintain SEA because they can - while AA and UA obviously lose money someplace else which you don't want to admit or discuss.

      The only explanation for the hard on that you and others have for DL at SEA is that you are either an AS or UA fan that can't accept that DL's 2 hub strategy on the west coast is a significant challenge to both and esp. for UA at SFO.

  10. Tim Dunn Diamond

    Delta just retimed its SEA-TPE flights to optimize connections within the US which is probably part of the reason they dropped LAX-LHR. The new timings involve an afternoon departure from SEA, the airplane overnights at TPE, and comes back mid-morning from TPE.
    DL is the only carrier that can carry its own connections on the US side; as much as people want to try to lump AS and its codeshare partners into the same...

    Delta just retimed its SEA-TPE flights to optimize connections within the US which is probably part of the reason they dropped LAX-LHR. The new timings involve an afternoon departure from SEA, the airplane overnights at TPE, and comes back mid-morning from TPE.
    DL is the only carrier that can carry its own connections on the US side; as much as people want to try to lump AS and its codeshare partners into the same camp as DL, AS does not have a joint venture with any foreign airlines so cannot coordinate pricing and can only sell seats to foreign airlines for the price that AS needs to get to cover the price of selling those seats. DL can and does view international connections from a network perspective - which is why enrilia only saw half of the picture when he made his statement about DL's SEA hub underperforming. DL built SEA as a TPAC hub first and filled in the domestic routes in order to maintain a high enough share in the local market and also to feed its TPAC flights.
    DL and CI could strengthen their expand their partnership to take advantage of the strengths of both companies over other airlines on the route.
    DL's primary focus for connections "south of TPE" is via ICN on KE as part of the JV.

    1. Jeremy Guest

      So optimistic when it comes to Delta even when it flies in the face of reality. As per your favorite DOT data, Alaska had ~50% pass. share at SEA from Oct ‘22-‘23 vs Delta’s 20%.

      The US Taiwanese community is small w/ most estimates at ~500k but very heavily concentrated - 50% are in CA and another ~25% in NYC. LA, SFO, and NYC already have multiple daily nonstops to Taipei. The biggest unserved markets...

      So optimistic when it comes to Delta even when it flies in the face of reality. As per your favorite DOT data, Alaska had ~50% pass. share at SEA from Oct ‘22-‘23 vs Delta’s 20%.

      The US Taiwanese community is small w/ most estimates at ~500k but very heavily concentrated - 50% are in CA and another ~25% in NYC. LA, SFO, and NYC already have multiple daily nonstops to Taipei. The biggest unserved markets are: Dallas, Houston, and DC (none are Delta hubs).

      Taiwan isn’t becoming a major transit hub, tourist destination, or business center in the next year - so when capacity goes up 2.5x overnight, it’s obvious it’s an airline turf war. Given China flights are re-ramping (tons of routes announced this week), Asia is coming back.

      Delta wants to prevent Alaska from gaining any traction to Asia - there probably was opportunity for 1 more daily flight than the current EVA frequency from Seattle. Starlux identified that and looked to leverage its partnership w/ Alaska. If the Hawaiian merger goes through, Alaska will have service to Japan and South Korea. Now how to avoid that? Flood the market with capacity and take losses to force Starlux out, b/c if Alaska gets that traction the path for Delta in SEA looks bleak.

    2. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Alaska is a domestic airline that didn't have margins (profits) anywhere near close to DL in 2023 and the same is true right now.
      AS is a codeshare partner at best for any international airline. They can't price their domestic flights low enough to make US connections worth it for foreign airlines so the foreign airlines will all be competing for the same local Asia-SEA local passenger.
      DL has a clear edge in...

      Alaska is a domestic airline that didn't have margins (profits) anywhere near close to DL in 2023 and the same is true right now.
      AS is a codeshare partner at best for any international airline. They can't price their domestic flights low enough to make US connections worth it for foreign airlines so the foreign airlines will all be competing for the same local Asia-SEA local passenger.
      DL has a clear edge in getting the SEA corporate business and very likely has contracts in hand for that traffic.
      What AS might do with international in the future is just a dream of avgeeks that neither AS or anyone official has said.
      And it is still true that DL has the revenue advantage on longer markets from SEA while AS has the share advantage on shorter markets but DL still gets comparable average fares. Further, AS would have to drop all of its partners in order to start flying international from SEA. AS would be facing a big uphill climb to grow SEA international and far too few people understand it because they are addicted to hype and bias.

    3. Jeremy Guest

      What happened to the data? The conversation isn't about Delta's operations everywhere it's about Seattle. SEA expects ~50M passengers in 2024 of which ~90% are domestic.

      The latest data from the Port of Seattle in International market share:
      Delta: 28%
      Alaska: 18%

      Domestic:
      Alaska: 58%
      Delta: 24% (btw will start serving Dallas in July, only serve Dulles in DC, don't serve Houston - that's ~10% of the Taiwanese pop. that's the...

      What happened to the data? The conversation isn't about Delta's operations everywhere it's about Seattle. SEA expects ~50M passengers in 2024 of which ~90% are domestic.

      The latest data from the Port of Seattle in International market share:
      Delta: 28%
      Alaska: 18%

      Domestic:
      Alaska: 58%
      Delta: 24% (btw will start serving Dallas in July, only serve Dulles in DC, don't serve Houston - that's ~10% of the Taiwanese pop. that's the supposed to help the feed excluding the 75% that already have multiple daily nonstops)

      So Delta serves Amsterdam (the only carrier), Paris, Seoul, Tokyo, London, and Shanghai from SEA over Alaska yet only has 10% more international pass. share? We also have data on the annual Amsterdam pass. count (~250k) and the Tokyo Haneda count that is only shared w/ ANA (~225k). If you assume Delta has 50% pass. share to Haneda, those 2 routes account for ~8% (~30%) of Delta's 28% intl. share.

      So obviously Delta is likely getting dominated by Alaska in service to Mexico and Canada as well. Alaska just joined OneWorld in 2021 and the only advantage in SEA Delta has over it is those Europe and Asia routes. It's obvious why Delta is concerned.

    4. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Jeremy,
      first, the data you cite is TRAFFIC share, not SEA local market share. AS uses its SEA hub to connect dozens of cities across its network. For DL, SEA is predominantly for
      Asia connections and for logical connections such as to/from Alaska. DL has SLC and other hubs to connect traffic to/from the PNW>
      and you like others think that having huge market share in a competitive market means that AS...

      Jeremy,
      first, the data you cite is TRAFFIC share, not SEA local market share. AS uses its SEA hub to connect dozens of cities across its network. For DL, SEA is predominantly for
      Asia connections and for logical connections such as to/from Alaska. DL has SLC and other hubs to connect traffic to/from the PNW>
      and you like others think that having huge market share in a competitive market means that AS is "winning."
      DL never intended to be the largest carrier at SEA, never said they had that as a goal, and you and others create your own expectations that are devoid of reality and then tout your success in predicting something that only you had as a goal.

      AS and DL are very rational competitors. DL just simply is more profitable on per seat and absolute basis. If SEA-TPE matters to them, and I think it does, they will do what they need to win and will have substantial advantages over other airlines including ALL of the Taiwanese airlines on this route.

    5. Jeremy Guest

      Yet again conflating Delta's overall performance with their performance in Seattle. We do not have the details of Delta's overall financial performance in Seattle. All we have is information that relative to Delta's other hubs, almost all of its domestic routes from SEA are underperformers (in the bottom 40%) - compared to other airlines, no hub performs as poorly domestically.

      You can claim that is incomplete b/c it doesn't count international. Well given their middling...

      Yet again conflating Delta's overall performance with their performance in Seattle. We do not have the details of Delta's overall financial performance in Seattle. All we have is information that relative to Delta's other hubs, almost all of its domestic routes from SEA are underperformers (in the bottom 40%) - compared to other airlines, no hub performs as poorly domestically.

      You can claim that is incomplete b/c it doesn't count international. Well given their middling traffic share and actual insider interviews like:

      "A senior Delta Network Planning executive I interviewed estimated that only 2 of Delta's 12 new Asia routes from Seattle broke even on a variable cost basis. The rest lost money once incremental expenses like crew, fuel, and aircraft ownership were accounted for. The red ink was substantial, with some routes like Seattle-Manila posting losses of over $5 million annually according to internal Delta figures."

      Combine that with similar reports for European routes, it's pretty obvious what is going on. Delta claimed Seattle would be their transpacific hub - today they fly to only Tokyo, Seoul, and Shanghai, 2 of which are slot-protected routes. Gone are Hong Kong, Osaka, and Beijing. Well it's obvious the strategy Delta claimed has been a failure so far.

    6. Tim Dunn Diamond

      feel free to provide us with a link and date for the statement about DL's profitability at SEA.
      I can guarantee you that it is not current.
      And you and others seem to deny the DOT data showing that UA operated its TPAC system at a loss for 3 years PRE-COVID but can't accept that DL, just like UA, is saying strong profits across the Pacific NOW.
      and even if DL is...

      feel free to provide us with a link and date for the statement about DL's profitability at SEA.
      I can guarantee you that it is not current.
      And you and others seem to deny the DOT data showing that UA operated its TPAC system at a loss for 3 years PRE-COVID but can't accept that DL, just like UA, is saying strong profits across the Pacific NOW.
      and even if DL is losing money at SEA, what has DL done so right that it can support all of these money-losing hubs you think DL has and still end up with the highest profits of any airline in the world?
      If DL can do all of that and still keep growing SEA, then everyone is SOL.

    7. Jeremy Guest

      Have at it - article with the quotes was posted in Nov. 2023 on Delta's network pre-COVID. Now if you want to say the author is fabricating his interviews and quotes I don't know what to say:

      https://www.mightytravels.com/2023/11/grounded-why-deltas-seattle-hub-is-dragging-down-performance/#:~:text=Delta%20made%20Seattle%20a%20hub,region%20dominated%20by%20Alaska%20Airlines.

      Also, no one is even talking about what you're saying - show me once where I even mention United or its TPAC profitability. No one has claimed Delta has "all these money losing hubs".

      Delta has...

      Have at it - article with the quotes was posted in Nov. 2023 on Delta's network pre-COVID. Now if you want to say the author is fabricating his interviews and quotes I don't know what to say:

      https://www.mightytravels.com/2023/11/grounded-why-deltas-seattle-hub-is-dragging-down-performance/#:~:text=Delta%20made%20Seattle%20a%20hub,region%20dominated%20by%20Alaska%20Airlines.

      Also, no one is even talking about what you're saying - show me once where I even mention United or its TPAC profitability. No one has claimed Delta has "all these money losing hubs".

      Delta has the most profitable hub in the US (ATL) supplemented by very profitable fortress hubs in Minneapolis, Detroit, and SLC. It is profitable (but to a lesser extent) at LAX and JFK/LGA with 1 very poor performing hub in SEA.

      Only Delta employees themselves know the exact financials for SEA, but we have DOT data showing it is the worst performing major hub domestically. Internationally we have quotes and route evidence (3 of 6 Asian destinations are literally gone) it is a low performer, and the share data is what it is.

      Forgoing profitability to gain market share is a common business strategy - this is what Delta tried to do to Alaska in Seattle when they hubbed it in 2013. They gained traction initially at a cost, but unfortunately they've struggled to gain share (they're lower today than in 2018) and the hub's performance has stayed stagnant as the lowest performing hub. Clearly it hasn't worked.

    8. Tim Dunn Diamond

      You prove my point.
      The article is based on 15 year old data - it cites 2009 - and doesn't have a SINGLE accurate stat about 2023 including on-time where Delta handedly outperformed Alaska in on-time in AS' hometown.
      There is no publicly available data about hub profitability and yet you cling to your cherrypicked "facts" and then can't understand why Delta keeps growing not just in size but also in profits.
      ...

      You prove my point.
      The article is based on 15 year old data - it cites 2009 - and doesn't have a SINGLE accurate stat about 2023 including on-time where Delta handedly outperformed Alaska in on-time in AS' hometown.
      There is no publicly available data about hub profitability and yet you cling to your cherrypicked "facts" and then can't understand why Delta keeps growing not just in size but also in profits.
      Once again, Delta is the most profitable airline in the world. It is growing Seattle. Delta execs just said that their Pacific operation is very profitable right now and they expect 2024 to be their most profitable year EVER flying the Pacific.
      If you want to believe all of the BS you spew, then keep at it.
      You make no logical sense but, most importantly, what you really trying to accomplish?
      It isn't stopping Delta from growing either in Seattle or across the Pacific and it sure doesn't stop me from debating WITH REAL FACTS what is really happening in the industry.

      Keep it up if it makes you feel better

    9. Jeremy Guest

      Do you have reading comprehension difficulties or does it extend to your entire capacity? Seattle wasn't even a Delta hub in 2009 from which it flew 12 routes what in the world kind of garbage are you spewing. Literally nothing in your last post on the Seattle hub is even accurate or logical lmao. I'm done with this conversation talking to a literal brick wall making a fool of yourself.

    10. Tim Dunn Diamond

      the article used that as the beginning point of when DL started to build the hub.
      In 2009, Delta merged with NW. that event had nothing to do with a hub. DL just became larger around the country.
      You posted the article. You should be able to correctly argue the correct facts but you mish-mash your belief about SEA with an article that is factually inaccurate on many grounds and then you argue with me that I am wrong!

    11. Jeremy Guest

      All the confirmation I need that you are arguing in bad faith. You claim: "The article is based off of 15 year data" - the article then proceeds to mention:

      - Between 2009 and 2019, Delta increased its daily departures out of Sea-Tac by more than 150%. It grew from around 90 flights per day to over 230

      - According to a Journal of Air Transport Management study, the top four airlines on the...

      All the confirmation I need that you are arguing in bad faith. You claim: "The article is based off of 15 year data" - the article then proceeds to mention:

      - Between 2009 and 2019, Delta increased its daily departures out of Sea-Tac by more than 150%. It grew from around 90 flights per day to over 230

      - According to a Journal of Air Transport Management study, the top four airlines on the West Coast saw their average profits tumble from $4.60 per passenger in 2015 to just $0.60 in 2019. The hyper-competition led to irrationally low fares that could not sustainably cover costs.

      - As a result, the airline faced serious operational problems at Sea-Tac throughout the 2010s. According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Delta ranked worst among major U.S. airlines in on-time performance at Seattle from 2012 to 2019

      - Domestically, Delta's Seattle routes faced stiff competition from Alaska Airlines as well as growing low-cost carriers like Southwest. Average one-way fares crashed by nearly 30% from 2015 to 2019 on key routes according to DOT data

      When you claim "15-year old data" when the article repeatedly mentions the entire 2010's, Alaska's entry into OneWorld in 2021, and the Delta contract negotiation in 2020 you are either: 1) illiterate 2) lack reading comprehension 3) intentionally manipulating facts to suit your narrative 4) all of the above

      The data provided is accurate until 2020 - while Delta's operations have improved since, as we know via Enilria's and other's posts and passenger traffic data, the status quo for Delta at Seattle has not changed domestically (or internationally given far lower volumes). You can claim whatever you want but your complete lack of any data or sources or anything indicates everything

    12. Tim Dunn Diamond

      what does an article that even you admit "ends" in 2020 matter?
      You desperately want to argue that Delta is failing at SEA so you pull up an article about profits on the west coast over 5 years ago!

      Once again, Delta execs JUST SAID TODAY that the Pacific is doing very well for them and they expect 2024 to be their most profitable year EVER flying the Pacific.
      United is saying similar...

      what does an article that even you admit "ends" in 2020 matter?
      You desperately want to argue that Delta is failing at SEA so you pull up an article about profits on the west coast over 5 years ago!

      Once again, Delta execs JUST SAID TODAY that the Pacific is doing very well for them and they expect 2024 to be their most profitable year EVER flying the Pacific.
      United is saying similar things.
      Why is it so hard for you to admit that DL and UA are seeing the same things, DL just happens to have spent 10 years restructuring its Pacific strategy and its fleet, and is very well positioned to grow?

      Whether you can or not, that is the fact.

    13. ll5777779 Member

      jesus christ - Tim, just because they're saying today that Pacific OVERALL will be good for them in 2024, doesn't mean that Pacific flying IN SEATTLE will be good! And of course they want to project confidence about their new Pacific routes, including SEA-TPE, but to cover your ears in the face of all of the data that suggests that SEA is their worst hub domestically and likely internationally is intellectually disingenuous. You argue that...

      jesus christ - Tim, just because they're saying today that Pacific OVERALL will be good for them in 2024, doesn't mean that Pacific flying IN SEATTLE will be good! And of course they want to project confidence about their new Pacific routes, including SEA-TPE, but to cover your ears in the face of all of the data that suggests that SEA is their worst hub domestically and likely internationally is intellectually disingenuous. You argue that people are delusionally hateful of DL, but you can't even see how you're a delusional fanboy of DL. Many of us will readily admit that DL is a well-run airline and it is indisputable that it is the most profitable airline in the world, but that doesn't mean every single part of their strategy is guaranteed to work. It's good to have a healthy skepticism of things, or you run the risk of looking like a fool rattling off data that is completely irrelevant to the question at hand.

      Or put another way, DL having the best systemwide profits or the best on time performance is NOT an indicator that SEA as a hub is performant, nor is it an indicator that they are well positioned to win on SEA-TPE. You can make strong cases for both ideas (that SEA is not a profitable hub for them, and that they won't win SEA-TPE, or in other parts of the pacific) while also acknowledging that DL is the most profitable airline.

    14. Tim Dunn Diamond

      You rely on cherrypicked information THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE INTERNATIONAL DATA and yet you come to the conclusion that Delta can't make an international flight work?

      You are the height of being committed to bias even as you accuse other people of bias.

      Count the number of flights to Asia Delta has and then count the number that are to/from SEA.
      Once again, it is beyond all logic to believe that Delta could be...

      You rely on cherrypicked information THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE INTERNATIONAL DATA and yet you come to the conclusion that Delta can't make an international flight work?

      You are the height of being committed to bias even as you accuse other people of bias.

      Count the number of flights to Asia Delta has and then count the number that are to/from SEA.
      Once again, it is beyond all logic to believe that Delta could be reporting its best profits across the Pacific - which were 1.8X the amount UA earned per seat mile in the first 3 quarters of 2023 - and yet be losing money on its flights from SEA-Asia.

      You don't want to know the truth.
      You want to be wedded to a lie and twist everything you hear and see to fit your lie.

      Delta will keep growing, including from SEA.

      You can lie to yourself all you want how to do that.

      How about you explain how UA lost money on its ENTIRE transpacific system for 3 years - that is actual data - but I know you will argue senselessly that data is not real.

    15. yoloswag420 Guest

      I ultimately want Delta to succeed as well as all the other US carriers because competition is good for consumers. People in SEA/West Coast should want Delta and other carriers to thrive because it'll bring more traffic, routes, and lower fares.

      My main concern is that Delta and other US carriers do a very poor job of adapting to their target demographics on these routes. At the end of the day, Asian populations prefer Asian...

      I ultimately want Delta to succeed as well as all the other US carriers because competition is good for consumers. People in SEA/West Coast should want Delta and other carriers to thrive because it'll bring more traffic, routes, and lower fares.

      My main concern is that Delta and other US carriers do a very poor job of adapting to their target demographics on these routes. At the end of the day, Asian populations prefer Asian carriers for one primary reason, the language barrier. Many travel with small kids, elderly parents, etc. Asian carriers have crews of native speakers for their markets, Delta and other US carriers rarely do.

      That's why UA is smart to develop so much TPAC in Australia because English is their language. I've flown Delta's TPAC Asia routes, and even in D1 cabins, over half of the staff are English speaking. I generally notice that Delta's pax are not locals. People in Japan prefer JAL/ANA. People in Taiwan will prefer CI/BR and probably JX.

    16. Tim Dunn Diamond

      you clearly have not been on a Delta international flight.

      I have NEVER been on a Delta flight to a non-English speaking country that doesn't have at least 2-3 language flight attendants on it.
      On the Asian DL flights I have been on, it has been as much as half of the crew.

      The difference is that unions don't like language speakers because they bypass seniority levels. Delta's FAs are non-union and the...

      you clearly have not been on a Delta international flight.

      I have NEVER been on a Delta flight to a non-English speaking country that doesn't have at least 2-3 language flight attendants on it.
      On the Asian DL flights I have been on, it has been as much as half of the crew.

      The difference is that unions don't like language speakers because they bypass seniority levels. Delta's FAs are non-union and the company is able to provide far better service as a result.

      Please get the facts straight.

    17. akr Guest

      @jeremy I agree this is way too many frequencies for the Seattle market but Taiwan is something of a transit hub and business center. Still, I don't care how many semi wafers you produce, this is way too much capacity for the market.

  11. lavanderialarry Guest

    Guessing Delta will be the first to drop its SEA-TPE service. 4 airlines in this market is simply way too much. Delta dropping out will further underscore that its SEA hub strategy simply doesn't work.

  12. yoloswag420 Guest

    Very obvious growth strategy from both JX and CI. JX has the AS partnership, with SEA being the AS hub.

    CI logically would only ever expand to Delta hubs, even if DL doesn't value their partnership as strongly as KEs. The fortress hubs that DL operates wouldn't be practical, like ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC.

    CI already services the other major DL hubs in LAX/JFK. BOS is smaller in size than SEA, BOS and isn't exactly...

    Very obvious growth strategy from both JX and CI. JX has the AS partnership, with SEA being the AS hub.

    CI logically would only ever expand to Delta hubs, even if DL doesn't value their partnership as strongly as KEs. The fortress hubs that DL operates wouldn't be practical, like ATL, MSP, DTW, SLC.

    CI already services the other major DL hubs in LAX/JFK. BOS is smaller in size than SEA, BOS and isn't exactly a place to funnel TPAC service through.

    Only thing up for question is how DL will strengthen its partnership w/ CI beyond codesharing, now that they have an identical route.

  13. Steve from Seattle Guest

    I agree that this is a really interesting development. Here are a few points:

    1. The competition for travelers between YVR and SEA is a very interesting point. If this greatly increased capacity results in a fare war to TPE and beyond, it could potentially draw travelers to Asia from the BC lower mainland to consider traveling out of SEA. However, I think it's more likely that reduced fares will likely cause one or more...

    I agree that this is a really interesting development. Here are a few points:

    1. The competition for travelers between YVR and SEA is a very interesting point. If this greatly increased capacity results in a fare war to TPE and beyond, it could potentially draw travelers to Asia from the BC lower mainland to consider traveling out of SEA. However, I think it's more likely that reduced fares will likely cause one or more of the airlines to reduce service or just pull out. In the end, it would have to be a huge fare difference to induce Canadians to add additional border controls to their trip --just as it is for us on the US side of the border, as neither country recognizes transit passengers.

    2. I agree that there is a large Asian community here in the Seattle area but I am not sure that's sufficient to support this much service.

    3. It is strange to me that for 3 of the 4 carriers--all of which are based in Taiwan --their departure times at both ends of the trip are so lousy. Only DL will have reasonable departure times and they will operate daily, giving them an advantage. Does anyone know why these times are so bad? Do these carriers have arrival/departure banks at TPE around those times for connections? Is TPE slot controlled? If it is, it seems unlikely that DL, a foreign carrier, would have the most convenient times, at least for P2P. I am really curious as to the flight times for the other 3 carriers.

    4. Beyond Taiwan, where will people be going via connections? ICN and HND/NRT are all well served nonstop from SEA by multiple carriers. However, depending upon final destination, some of the connections through those airports are terrible. If TPE can offer tighter connections, that might work. However, should nonstop service between SEA and DEL begin, as Air India says it will, that could siphon off some connecting traffic (for other Asian and Middle Eastern carriers, too) as there is a sizeable Indian population here that uses those services.

    5. If China Airlines is entering the market, I can see some kind of JV with DL eventually. However, if the other 2 carriers remain and apply downward pressure on fares, that could still work out.

    6. No, Skylux is not La Compagnie but it appears to be providing great hard product and service on the routes it already serves.

    7. To the poster from Alaska regretting having to backtrack from ANC to SEA to catch Asia flights that then backtrack again --I feel for you. It's not unlike having to go to LAX or SFO to connect to Asia from SEA. It would be interesting to see if direct service from ANC would work. Also, it reminds me just how much our two states have always been linked economically, going back to the Klondike Gold Rush, which first put Seattle on the map. In the current era, a lot of air traffic at SEA is linked to the Alaska cruise season. If you don't believe me, try flying out of SEA in cruise season vs. at Christmas --it's kind of like Christmas for months. I suspect that a lot of foreign carriers flying here get a passenger bump from people coming here for Alaska cruising. I don't know if it's still true but many cruisers from other parts of the USA used to fly here and get to cruises departing from Vancouver by bus because flights here were cheaper and more numerous.

    It's like the old curse--may you live in interesting times.

    1. yoloswag420 Guest

      Assume you mean Starlux and not Skylux.

      Regarding point #3, it's not that weird. Look at most of the other West Coast departures, 4 out of 6 from LAX are at similar times, 5 out of 7 at SFO as well. Taiwanese carrier business model is to funnel connecting traffic.

      Early AM arrival means you get a whole day of departures to connect pax onto, and their Asia network is very extensive. Even JX...

      Assume you mean Starlux and not Skylux.

      Regarding point #3, it's not that weird. Look at most of the other West Coast departures, 4 out of 6 from LAX are at similar times, 5 out of 7 at SFO as well. Taiwanese carrier business model is to funnel connecting traffic.

      Early AM arrival means you get a whole day of departures to connect pax onto, and their Asia network is very extensive. Even JX who is quite new already has about a dozen or so routes to various Asian cities.

      Finally, you must also consider the fact that the routes are also useful for the converse, as in funnelling Asian pax into the US and beyond. There's plenty of demand to visit the US, and Seattle while will never be on the scale of NY, LA, or Florida cities, is a popular tourist destination

      By this logic, Delta is competing w/ the other point to point routes such as the noon/afternoon departures from LAX/SFO rather than the late night departures. Meanwhile CI is probably catering to a Taiwanese/Asian demographic.

      At any rate, TPE is the most logical destination for Delta to go to TPAC, considering their lack of major partners outside of KE.

    2. Steve from Seattle Guest

      @yoloswag420--yes, I meant Starlux. Sorry about that Thanks for the reply and the information. You made cogent points and I appreciate reading them.

    3. WaywardAlpaca Member

      As mentioned by others (and in other related articles), these departure times allows for connectivity to SEA destinations in both directions. And for the small portion of O/D passengers, they are likely heading home, staying with family / friends, or taking a train / bus to other parts of the island — so the 5AM arrival is less of an issue. UA/DL are operating daytime frequencies (BR/CI also have some out of SFO and LAX) for those who prefer them.

    4. Jeremy Guest

      To your 4th point, there are no nonstop flights between Taiwan and India so transit to South Asia is a non-starter.

      While there is a Taiwanese community, this level of over-service is bizarre given Taipei being a middling transit hub influenced obviously politically by being in Taiwan. This route is almost certainly going to be a bloodbath.

    5. Steve from Seattle Guest

      @Jeremy...a lack of nonstops between India and Taiwan surprised me but you are clearly correct, at least for now. Thanks for pointing that out.

    6. ll5777779 Member

      It's all about AI and semiconductors. Who is the biggest supplier of advanced chips in the world? TSMC. Who are the biggest buyers? Amazon, then Microsoft. I wouldn't be surprised if the business travel between these 3 companies was enough to sustain more frequencies in the market. Now 4 is pushing it... but 2 or even 3? That's plausible.

      The other piece is tourism. Lots of wealthy people these days in Seattle who want...

      It's all about AI and semiconductors. Who is the biggest supplier of advanced chips in the world? TSMC. Who are the biggest buyers? Amazon, then Microsoft. I wouldn't be surprised if the business travel between these 3 companies was enough to sustain more frequencies in the market. Now 4 is pushing it... but 2 or even 3? That's plausible.

      The other piece is tourism. Lots of wealthy people these days in Seattle who want to go to Asia. TPE is a great hub for that, especially mainland China and southeast Asia.

  14. JC Guest

    Best way to increase customers is to lower airfare prices to the far east. Currently, there are numerous flights from Seattle to several European cities for under $500 RT. There is nothing from Seattle to countries like Japan, Korea, or Taiwan for under $1000, despite it being aprx the same distance.

    1. Steve from Seattle Guest

      Yeah, I have often wondered about that, too. I think the answer is that there is just more capacity/more carriers to Europe. Currently, to Asia, Seattle really has only Delta, Singapore, EVA Air, ANA, Japan Airlines, Korean, and Asiana--and the Korean-Asiana merger looks like it will take Asiana off the board soon. Singapore only operates 3 days per week currently, soon to be increased but only to 4 per week. More importantly, which of these...

      Yeah, I have often wondered about that, too. I think the answer is that there is just more capacity/more carriers to Europe. Currently, to Asia, Seattle really has only Delta, Singapore, EVA Air, ANA, Japan Airlines, Korean, and Asiana--and the Korean-Asiana merger looks like it will take Asiana off the board soon. Singapore only operates 3 days per week currently, soon to be increased but only to 4 per week. More importantly, which of these carriers qualifies as low cost? I would say none of them. Maybe that's why 3 new entrants into the TPE market (even if one of them, DL, isn't new to SEA) is kind of exciting.

    2. yoloswag420 Guest

      I think SEA is in an interesting spot. There's a few things to consider.

      SEA is a drastically smaller TPAC hub compared to SFO, which has a powerhouse in UA, along with being a major gateway for many Asian carriers. LAX doesn't have a single dominant TPAC carrier, but because of its relevance is often the launchpad for most US routes, and has plenty of service. Up North in YVR, even after pandemic cuts, AC...

      I think SEA is in an interesting spot. There's a few things to consider.

      SEA is a drastically smaller TPAC hub compared to SFO, which has a powerhouse in UA, along with being a major gateway for many Asian carriers. LAX doesn't have a single dominant TPAC carrier, but because of its relevance is often the launchpad for most US routes, and has plenty of service. Up North in YVR, even after pandemic cuts, AC has managed to turn it into a reputable TPAC hub as well. 2nd strongest after SFO if I'm not mistaken.

      SEA is also heavily capacity restricted. The airport itself was not designed to handle this much, leading to heavy competition for gate space, which makes growing out of SEA much more challenging due to the incumbent leader in AS.

      This also leads to the lounge problem at SEA as well, with zero premium business class lounges. Nearly every other international hub, be it TPAC or TATL has at least one. SFO/LAX/YVR have UA Polaris, AA Flagship, AC Signature Suite, and even soon DL's premium lounge at LAX.

    3. pnwFlyer206 Guest

      Agree. I paid $1697.90 SEA-ICN-SGN roundtrip, departing on Tue late March - what a rid o!!!

      They are building a two-level Delta Sky Club lounge and an updated and expanded Club at SEA lounge. The new building will add approximately 52,000 square feet to SEA’s footprint. https://www.portseattle.org/projects/A-concourse-lounges

  15. John Guest

    China Airlines should've reinstated Anchorage instead of Seattle even if it's at least 1-2x weekly. Believe it or not, there's a market up in Alaska for flights to/from Asia, especially in the summer when tourists from Japan/Korea come up for tours. Currently, we need to fly down the lower 48, the wrong direction, just to pass by it again. I don't think Seattle needs 4 airlines and 25x weekly flights to/from Taipei.

    1. putout Guest

      Disagree. Huge East Asian community in Seattle, and not all of them are going to Taipei and connecting beyond as tourists.

  16. Biglaw V10 Partner Guest

    I’m curious why the west coast to Asia market doesn’t have a low-cost all-business class operation in the manner of La Compagnie between the east coast and Europe.

    If you’re departing at 2am, just give me a lie flat seat. No meals or movies necessary.

    1. pnwFlyer206 Guest

      also Air Premia from LAX/SFO to ICN

    2. yoloswag420 Guest

      Because of distances. West Coast to Asia is vastly longer distance than East Coast to Europe, almost 50% more. All business-class is cheap and easy to run on narrowbody, you basically need a widebody's range to do this. Not space efficient to do all business class on a widebody.

  17. Steve Guest

    This is going to hurt YVR traffic if prices drop in Seattle from the competition.

  18. Mark Guest

    Interesting that one of the few (compared to UA in SFO) DL TPAC flights is in a market where they likely knew (given the CI rumors) they’d be one of four carriers.

    With the competition it seems like DL would be better off operating the flight from LAX, where they’d still be one of four carriers but at least they’d get a piece of a much larger market.

    With the Asian carriers able to connect pax through the region beyond TPE, it seems DL is at the disadvantage.

    1. yoloswag420 Guest

      Not quite as straightforward as LAX is bigger so more market share. At LAX they would be one of seven routes vs at SEA they are one of four routes. LAX is not that much proportionally larger where they would be getting a larger market share. Not to mention United siphons a huge amount of TPAC traffic through SFO from LAX.

    2. ConcordeBoy Diamond

      Not to mention United siphons a huge amount of TPAC traffic through SFO from LAX.

      Sure, but not as though the reverse doesn't also occur, spread through even more carriers.

  19. derek Guest

    EVA Air had a daily flight until a few months ago. Now it has 10 weekly flights. However, 3 flights are timed almost the same as the daily flight so I expect those 3 flights to end.

    Starlux will have 3 weekly flights. I have no doubt they want to increase it to daily eventually.

    China Airlines will have 5 weekly flights. If push comes to shove, maybe China Airlines and Delta will coordinate....

    EVA Air had a daily flight until a few months ago. Now it has 10 weekly flights. However, 3 flights are timed almost the same as the daily flight so I expect those 3 flights to end.

    Starlux will have 3 weekly flights. I have no doubt they want to increase it to daily eventually.

    China Airlines will have 5 weekly flights. If push comes to shove, maybe China Airlines and Delta will coordinate. They both are in SkyTeam. Skyteam over the Pacific from SEA is weak so TPE could be an alternate hub to ICN.

    The terrible thing is that China Airlines, Starlux, and EVA have nearly identical schedules. All arrive in TPE around 5 am and leave in the evening. Only Delta is different, arriving TPE mid-afternoon and leaving TPE right away. 

    1. yoloswag420 Guest

      EVA's SEA double up flights was always seasonal though. CI and EVA double/triple up down in SFO/LAX seasonally as well.

  20. eponymous coward Guest

    BR does a lot of interline tickets. I’ve seen BR connecting to AS before.

  21. Ross Guest

    What's there to do in Taipei at 5 a.m.?

    1. eponymous coward Guest

      Connect to a bunch of flights to Bangkok or Hong Kong or the Philippines?

      Also a late night departure rocks for getting sleep on the plane. Midafternoon to Asia sucks, who wants to go to bed at 2 pm in your departure city after your meal gets served, other than Lucky?

    2. derek Guest

      5 am in Taipei is 2 pm in Seattle so the passenger may be awake and alert when arriving. Still, it's a lot of hours until 3 pm hotel check-in. Maybe check into a love hotel in the late morning and snooze for 3 hours? Or reserve a hotel room from the night before?
      ======
      Looks like EVA Air has dropped its 3x week flight starting September so that it will be operating only one daily flight.

    3. S_LEE Gold

      This schedule's not for tourists to Taipei. It's for connecting passengers and Taiwanese expats only. The expats have home in Taiwan, so the arrival time doesn't matter at all.
      I'm Korean but I love midnight departure because it lets me save a day of PTO. I can work a full day and head to the airport. Nothing's more valuable than saving my PTO! And when I arrive in Korea, I can go to my...

      This schedule's not for tourists to Taipei. It's for connecting passengers and Taiwanese expats only. The expats have home in Taiwan, so the arrival time doesn't matter at all.
      I'm Korean but I love midnight departure because it lets me save a day of PTO. I can work a full day and head to the airport. Nothing's more valuable than saving my PTO! And when I arrive in Korea, I can go to my family's home regardless of the time. The same should apply to Taiwanese expats flying to TPE.

    4. Kliff Guest

      EVA picks up a lot of transit passengers to SEA, namely Philippines, Thailand, and (especially Vietnam. TPE is just a transit airport and there isn’t a lot of traffic visiting TPE.

    5. eponymous coward Guest

      Yeah, a ton of transiting traffic at TPE because SE Asia until recently has had very little nonstop service to the USA (Thailand still doesn't have it), just the SQ nonstops (and some of those were Y+/J so not very affordable).

  22. Ryan L Guest

    China Airlines served SEA previously. I flew them SEA-TPE in the early 2000s on an A330 or A340. The routing was TPE-SEA-IAH-SEA-IAH.

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