Boeing 737 MAX 10 Certification Just Days Away, And It’s A Big Deal For Airlines

It goes without saying that Boeing has had a rather rough several years when it comes to getting new aircraft certified. Up until recently, the aerospace giant hadn’t yet received certification for the 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 10, and 777X.

Fortunately the tides at Boeing are slowly turning. Recently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certified the 737 MAX 7, which is exciting for Southwest (basically the only airline with the plane on order). We knew that 737 MAX 10 certification shouldn’t be too far behind, and it now looks like we may just be days away from that happening (thanks to isaacC for flagging this)…

Boeing 737 MAX 10 should be certified within days

Reuters is reporting that Alaska Airlines expects the Boeing 737 MAX 10 to be certified before the end of September, which would be in the next six days.

Admittedly Alaska is an airline and not an aircraft manufacturer, but I’d guess that they have a reason to believe this timeline, especially given the company’s very close relationship with Boeing. Also keep in mind that Alaska is expected to be the US launch customer for the aircraft (though WestJet will be the global launch customer).

This narrative also matches what we’ve heard from Boeing executives in recent times, with Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg saying last week that 737 MAX 10 certification is coming “very soon.”

It’s worth noting that even once the plane is certified, it’ll still take some time for it to actually enter service. For example, Alaska executives emphasize that they still need to complete certification work related to the heads-up display used by pilots after the aircraft itself is certified, and that process could take a few months. For the Seattle-based oneworld carrier, the current goal is for the first plane to be in service in April or May of 2027.

As a reminder, the 737 MAX 10 is the highest capacity but shortest range version of the 737 family. Obviously there’s a compromise between size and range, given that all variants use the same types of engines. The 737 MAX 10 will have the best per-seat economics of any Boeing narrow body plane in history.

The Boeing 737 MAX 10 has major implications for airlines

The recent Boeing 737 MAX 7 certification has huge implications for Southwest, which has hundreds of these planes on order, while virtually no other airline has placed a meaningful order for the aircraft type. The 737 MAX 10 is a totally different story.

There are nearly 1,500 firm orders for the 737 MAX 10. Here in the United States, Alaska, American, Delta, and United, each have 100 or more of these planes on order. You’ll find similarly large orders at Ryanair, WestJet, Pegasus Airlines, Akasa Air, and more. So this plane has proven super popular with airlines.

What makes the 737 MAX 10 attractive is obvious — the plane has amazing per-seat economics, so if you don’t need the incremental range of the smaller variants (which most airlines don’t, since they’re not looking to cross oceans), then it’s pretty obvious to choose the largest variant, so you get more seats with only very small incremental operating costs.

Now, this is also a bit of a trap. Seats are only worth anything if you can actually fill them. Flying a larger variant with theoretically better per-seat economics doesn’t exactly help you if the plane isn’t close to full:

• This “concern” is the exact reason that Southwest has been very conservative, focusing on the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 8, with no 737 MAX 9 or 737 MAX 10 aircraft on order (I feel like that’s the wrong decision, especially with the airline introducing extra legroom seating and eventually probably first class, but that’s besides the point)
• Arguably switching to larger aircraft has also been a real issue for ultra low cost carriers in the US, as they loved the sound of a low cost per air seat mile, but then struggled to actually fill those seats

For passengers in the United States, the 737 MAX 10 should be a great plane. I suspect airlines won’t be using the extra space to necessarily cram in a ton more seats, but instead, I imagine we’ll see even more premium seating.

We know that American and Delta each plan to install at least 24 first class seats on these planes, more than they’ve otherwise had across any narrow body fleet type (United, meanwhile, still has a problem to solve). I’d expect a lot of extra legroom seats as well. I imagine US airlines will be staying well under the 200-seat count number, so that they don’t have to staff these planes with more than four flight attendants.

Bottom line

The Boeing 737 MAX 10 is expected to be certified in the coming days, just weeks after the 737 MAX 7 was certified. Even if the FAA does give the 737 MAX 10 the green light, expect it’ll be the spring of 2027 before the plane actually enters service.

The 737 MAX 10 has the best per-seat economics of any Boeing narrow body plane, and that’s why there are nearly 1,500 of these on order. We’ll eventually see hundreds of these 737 MAXs flying in the US, including for Alaska, American, Delta, and United. Expect very premium layouts, given the extra space that airlines have to play with.

What do you make of the 737 MAX 10 nearing certification?