Earlier, I posed the question of whether Gulf carriers will ever make a full recovery from the current conflict in the Middle East, and if so, how long it will take. I’ve also addressed the topic of what to do if you have a ticket booked on a Gulf carrier, given all the uncertainty. In this post I’d like to pose another question, which reflects a dilemma I’m currently facing.
In this post:
I can’t decide whether to book the “perfect” itinerary, or…
Later this month, I’m supposed to take a trip to Thailand, which was planned well before the current conflict in the Middle East. I don’t actually have flights booked yet, which is the norm for me, since I often only lock them in at the last minute, when good award options open up.
Given that Miami has no nonstop flights to North or Southeast Asia, I had been expecting that my best opportunity to redeem miles for a comfortable ride would be to book a Gulf carrier at the last minute. Suffice it to say that the current conflict complicates that.
That brings me to my question — I see that Qatar Airways has opened business class award space on an ideal one-stop routing, at the lowest possible award cost, and with a perfect layover. It’s for travel in the coming weeks, so what do I do?
- Do I not even consider this option, given the massive amount of uncertainty, and keep looking for another routing (which will ultimately be less convenient)?
- Do I book it, and assume that if nothing materially worsens before travel time, I should take this routing?
- Do I just book it and hope the situation improves, and worst case scenario I can cancel for a small fee?
The argument for and against traveling through the Gulf
I’m not in any way meaning to diminish any potential risks or safety concerns, so let me share both sides of this, as I see it.
The argument for traveling through the Gulf right now is easy — flights are largely wide open, award availability is good, etc. Gulf carriers carry a massive amount of sixth freedom traffic (between other countries), and when those options disappear overnight, availability via other regions is suddenly looking much tighter.
Furthermore, I’ve written in the past about why I’m not terribly concerned about the risks of commercial aviation. I don’t mean to be dismissive, and perhaps this is an area where I should be more concerned. But my general approach is that any time we get into a car, we’re taking a bigger risk than any time we step onto a plane.
So if I’m trying to compare what amounts to very small amounts of risk (in absolute terms), I tend to think I’m not really capable of analyzing that logically, so I just avoid doing so altogether.
The argument against traveling through the Gulf is also obvious — there’s an increased safety risk, plus there’s a chance of getting stuck somewhere, if the situation escalates. It’s also important to emphasize that Gulf states aren’t necessarily the best narrators in terms of accurately reporting on the situation within their countries, and while I’m not saying that means the risk is huge, the potential lack of accurate information can make some people uneasy.
The main reason I’d probably avoid flying through the Gulf is simply because I imagine that some family members may be concerned if they hear I’m traveling through the region, and I care about how they feel, and don’t want to create unnecessary stress.
I’ve also seen some people point out that some insurance policies don’t apply if you’re somewhere during a conflict, so everyone can decide for themselves to what extent that matters.
Bottom line
It’s a terrible time for the major Gulf carriers, as they’re finding themselves in a situation that feels very similar to the early days of the pandemic.
It’s understandable why most people would want to avoid these airlines for now — it’s a combination of safety concerns and the potential for irregular operations. However, I’m curious to hear what comfort level those in the OMAAT community have with flying through Gulf hubs.
Where do you stand on the concept of flying through a Gulf hub right now? Does your answer depend on whether it’s Dubai or Doha? If you wouldn’t feel comfortable with it, what would it take for you to be open to it again?
Dear Leader says the war will be over in another 2 weeks.
What's to worry about?
QR is "unconfirming" and "unticketing" these awards. Happened to me just today. Book at your own risk!
If you the U.S. Government is not allowing its employees to travel on those airlines then you have your answer.
Think about your husband and children if you ever get stuck there, not to mention one in million chance that your aircraft is shot down by mistake or intentionally...
The only reason I book this flight would be the expectation that qr would book me in a different airline before my departure but that is probably not happening given how stingy qr is
It's not even close to one in a million.
And just to remind the last time an airliner was shot down in that area was back in the 80s.
ICYMI, it was an Iran airliner who got shot down by a US warship.
The warship captain even got a medal for it.
It's never the cheap and crude munitions that I'm afraid of.
It's always those deadly and high precision warheads strike with either bad intel, human error, or as collateral damage.
Safety wise I wouldn't blink an eye and I'd be happy to travel. I'm however concerned about operational reliability, though this varies by the airline. Emirates seems to be treating its passengers well and doesn't have an issue rebooking on OAL if needed so I'd be happy to book with them. Etihad on the other hand won't see my business for years as they basically told customers "though luck" and left them stranded all over the planet.
That's what I keep warning people for years about ME3.
Glad to hear EK is taking more responsibility, as their customer service is the better one among ME3.
EY, pathetic trash as always.
My issue with booking tickets through the big ME hubs right now is that there is a huge risk of flights getting cancelled and diverted last minute, which may cause you to end up in an unintended destination. My question to you Ben is how badly do you need to end up in Thailand, and how badly do you need to get home on the day you are scheduled to? Are your pre-booked expenses in...
My issue with booking tickets through the big ME hubs right now is that there is a huge risk of flights getting cancelled and diverted last minute, which may cause you to end up in an unintended destination. My question to you Ben is how badly do you need to end up in Thailand, and how badly do you need to get home on the day you are scheduled to? Are your pre-booked expenses in Thailand refundable (or can they be cancelled for a small fee)? If you absolutely need to get to Thailand on a certain date, I would recommend it being better for you to book away from the ME3. I don't think safety is really a big issue. The flight schedule reliability is a big one for me.
I had family members flying the ME3 the day that the war started. My aunt ended up stuck in Cairo for 3 days (until I got her another ticket out of there), while my uncle ended up on a 15 hour flight to nowhere, and my father ended up in Italy (on a flight between US and DOH). I had to travel to the Indian Subcontinent a couple weeks ago. Ended up rebooking on Turkish because I had to be back home by a specific date.
As long as Champagne keeps flowing.
You can keep Ben in any ME3 lounge or widebodies.
I'd do it. Just with the expectation that if you get stuck, you're on the hook financially for hotel stays, ect.
I have a sibling and their family in the UAE and they have travelled to and fro a few times over the past month... If things were truly bad, I'd imagine they would leave the country with the kids.
Highly experienced travelers like Ben may go.
Others shouldn't.
Simple.
brother you are a father now
Right now - as in this month - no. Too many flights are still being cancelled with not enough service resuming to provide back up alternatives. My colleague's flight on EK 10 days from now has already been cancelled. It's just not worth the headache.
I'd say go for it. I'm flying in and out of Jordan next month and not worried about it at all. Take advantage of the open award space but be flexible in case one or more flights get canceled. Have easily cancelable backups in place.
My brother was supposed to fly via Dubai 3 weeks ago. He got stuck in Vietnam for an extra week, then spent 13 hours in DXB sitting on the floor with 1500 other pax or running to the basement while an F16 shot down a drone outside the windows of Terminal B.
Not what I’d call a dream trip….
Active shooter training is applicable.
Terminal B or high school, it's the same principle.
The only difference is active shooter occurs more often than drones.
Active school shooters don’t shut down a whole city for a week.
Depends on how you define the consequences of shut down.
DC beltway sniper were active for few weeks.
Jan 6, while not a week, took over the capital.
It's a matter of time when you get the firepower of LV shooter, stealth of beltway, and organized like Jan 6.
That dear Ronnie is true fear.
Iran has, I believe for the most part, wound down their attacks on Qatar. While that may reduce disruptions, I’m still avoiding the region because I do not need to be stuck in a layover airport because of an emergency situation. Here’s how my calculus works:
1. Turkish Airlines is among the least likely to experience disruption right now. Oil supply from Azerbaijan is steady (incl. jet fuel) and flight path goes North over Iran...
Iran has, I believe for the most part, wound down their attacks on Qatar. While that may reduce disruptions, I’m still avoiding the region because I do not need to be stuck in a layover airport because of an emergency situation. Here’s how my calculus works:
1. Turkish Airlines is among the least likely to experience disruption right now. Oil supply from Azerbaijan is steady (incl. jet fuel) and flight path goes North over Iran with GPS spoofing in action
2. Japanese airlines are on borrowed time as Japan maintains considerable petroleum reserve which may include jet fuel. They’ll be ok for next month or 2, maybe not beyond that. Korean airlines not even worth considering
3. Cathay Pacific has enough oil from mainland China for some time, and China will surely keep getting oil from Alaska & Russia alike, maybe enough to minimise disruption
4. Singapore Airlines is a refining hub reliant on Gulf oil. I’m actually not sure how long their supplies may last, but they should have alternative crude sources notably Malaysia and Brunei.
EU airlines may be good for one-stop from Miami, but some airlines have expressed concern about jet fuel supplies from SE Asia. It shouldn’t be this annoying and complex, but hey, we try to be prepared
I, too, saw that Qatar dumped a ton of award capacity and put a flight on hold using AA miles. About 5 hours later, AA emailed me saying my flight had changed and I needed to call them. I took that as my sign that this isn't going to work and let the hold expire instead... all that to say the awards you're seeing may not be real.
Forgot one detail, AA needed me to call them because they were unable to rebook me. Unclear how the Qatar flight changed, but apparently it was enough that I needed to pick another flight.
We've been to Dubai last week ( from Europe ) we stayed 10 days , I never felt unsafe , we didn't get lucky with the weather tough , almost every day rain
Just flew to and from South Asia via AUH last week, the whole experience was very anticlimactic tbh. AUH was a bit more empty than I've seen in the past but also not peak COVID level. Qatar is probably more likely to have schedule disruption given that they are slightly closer to Iran than UAE so traffic has been slower to resume, but if the flight makes sense I would go for it.
We...
Just flew to and from South Asia via AUH last week, the whole experience was very anticlimactic tbh. AUH was a bit more empty than I've seen in the past but also not peak COVID level. Qatar is probably more likely to have schedule disruption given that they are slightly closer to Iran than UAE so traffic has been slower to resume, but if the flight makes sense I would go for it.
We had 12h on the way back and went to Abu Dhabi for the day; didn't see any sign of attack, the streets were quiet but no panic. Id' say if you stay clear of industrial zones you'll be fine
Worst case scenario if you end up stuck in Qatar, you can also cross by land into KSA and fly from Jeddah, which hasn't been affected at all. A bit of a pain but that's worst case scenario
TBH, flying ME3 especially via AUH, I'm much more afraid of going to war with Etihad customer service than shots from Iran.
They are notoriously useless.
Sure if nothing happens to your flight, your good. But if those pesky EY people starts messing with your flight in transit, you'll regret it.
EY customer service can do more damage to you than Iran.
LOL
Matthew wants to bring his 2 kids to Syria to teach them a lesson.
You'll do fine.
Went to Syria last year on vacation and had a great time. So much history to see!
Fly to Southern South America. Then on to Australia or New Zealand and then to Thailand. Bypass the Mid East entirely.