For those in the United States (and other countries doing well with vaccinations), it’s such an exciting time. We’re on the cusp of widespread vaccination, and it’s looking like people will hopefully be able to do some shame-free travel this coming summer.
That’s reason to celebrate and be excited. However, I saw that @xJonNYC linked to a story that had an interesting take on how we’re about to enter the “golden age” of travel, and I have my doubts.
In this post:
Is the next year the golden age of flying?
Town & Country published a story yesterday about how “all those things you’ve hated about airplane travel” are now “gone,” and it suggested that “the next 12 to 18 months might just be the new golden age of flying.”
As the story starts off:
“Remember sold-out flights? Ticket price fluctuations? The near impossibility of purchasing tickets with your miles for a flight you want, when you want it?
There’s more: Steep change fees; lack of aisle and window seats; the scrimmage to find overhead space for your carry-on; the risk of getting bumped; take-off delays as planes idle on the tarmac, awaiting their turn in line; airline meal service (much ado about nothing, right?); long luggage carousel waits (and lost bags); and the odds (admittedly low, but memorable if you draw the short straw) of finding yourself on a flight with a ‘support’ pig (or armadillo) in the seat next to yours.
The colossal disruptions of the pandemic have eliminated all that—a consumer-friendly by-product of Covid-19, if you will. The pumpkin has been turned into a chariot. Like all such chariots, however, it has an expiration date, and some of the irritants, will, over time, return.”
The story suggests that in the next 12 to 18 months “the world is your oyster” if you’ve been vaccinated.
There are many claims in the story that are also questionable, or that at a minimum are doing a disservice to people who take what they read at face value (in fairness, people probably shouldn’t be reading Town & Country for travel advice). But the point of this post isn’t to pick various parts of the story apart, but rather to share that I have a very different (less optimistic) take on travel in the next year.
New Zealand definitely won’t be our “oyster” anytime soon
Flying probably won’t be as fun in the next year
I think we’re all collectively excited about a few months down the road when aspects of life can return to normal. However, that doesn’t translate to flying & travel being better than it was pre-coronavirus.
If you’re going to make any argument about the “golden age” of flying in relation to coronavirus, I’d argue that the past year has probably been the “golden age” in that way, since fares were cheap, and flights and airports were empty (of course that was for good reason).
Let me share my take on two levels — the big-picture travel experience, and then flying more specifically. And let’s look a few months down the road here — let me share what I envision in the peak of summer, which will be a point where in the US everyone who wants to have a vaccine will (hopefully) have one.
When it comes to travel more generally:
- The world will very much not be our “oyster,” since many border restrictions aren’t going anywhere; don’t assume that you can go everywhere just because you’re vaccinated
- I think travel will be heavily concentrated — for Americans that will include domestic travel, Mexico, and select other destinations
- Many of the hurdles to travel that have existed will likely continue to exist — expect countries to have constant rule changes about entry requirements, expect you may have to get tested for coronavirus even if you’re vaccinated, etc.
- I even see a lot of Americans planning very detailed itineraries for early summer to destinations that aren’t open to Americans, expecting that things will change shortly, which I wouldn’t count on
- Expect social distancing and other coronavirus measures to continue to be in place, which might not be so seamless when hotels and airports are at capacity; this could include things like hotels not offering daily housekeeping, not offering proper room service, not refilling minibars, etc.
Will the European Union open to Americans this summer? We’ll see…
When it comes to flying specifically:
- I don’t necessarily think we’ll see the mask mandate for airplanes go anywhere in the near future, but I do think we’ll start to see even more compliance issues, between anti-maskers and those who have been vaccinated thinking they shouldn’t have to wear masks
- Airlines have greatly cut back inflight service, and I imagine they’ll be slow to bring it back
- Flights to destinations that Americans can travel to are going to be really busy, probably busier than we’ve ever seen before, given the pent up demand for travel
- While fares are low at this very moment, I think we’re going to see significant fare increases in the coming months, because flights to some destinations will be packed
This summer expect airports to look less like this…
…and more like this
Let me once again emphasize that I say all this not because I’m trying to rain on anyone’s parade. It’s going to be so exciting to travel this summer and hopefully feel like there’s somewhat of a return to normal.
However, I do expect this will come with its challenges as well, and I just think it makes sense to prepare for that — many places will continue to remain closed, and as a result we’re going to see tourists heavily concentrated at certain destinations. On top of that, there will likely continue to be significant restrictions in place, which will be quite a balance with huge crowds.
Bottom line
A lot of people are starting to plan summer travel, and that’s an exciting prospect. While I absolutely think travel this summer (and beyond) is going to be awesome, I don’t view this as the “golden age” of travel, in the sense that I think travel will continue to come with its challenges.
I don’t think mask mandates are immediately going to be eliminated, service will likely continue to be at least somewhat limited on planes and at hotels, travel restrictions will continue to be in place (and be complicated), etc.
What’s your take — are we entering the golden age of flying? When do you think we’ll see airline mask mandates eliminated, airlines restore full inflight service, etc.?
Pre-Covid I travelled often to Asia, Europe and Emirates. With international destinations closed or regulated, I am using this spring and summer to get reacquainted with USA. I've booked Vegas and New Orleans in April, and Boston, Reno, Chicago in May. Ticket prices ("Golden Age") were great bargains since I purchased in early March. How will my experiences be with the airports, planes and destinations? "Golden Age"?
That Town & Country author is so clueless... lol.
I have no doubt that this summer will be the most frustrating flight experience anyone can have. There will be plenty of “you don’t tell me what to do” anti maskers which will lead to in cabinet fightings and possible return everyone to airports to airfares skyrocketing for desirable destinations. Case and point, a month ago, flight to Hawaii in J was around $600 from...
That Town & Country author is so clueless... lol.
I have no doubt that this summer will be the most frustrating flight experience anyone can have. There will be plenty of “you don’t tell me what to do” anti maskers which will lead to in cabinet fightings and possible return everyone to airports to airfares skyrocketing for desirable destinations. Case and point, a month ago, flight to Hawaii in J was around $600 from west coast and now it has doubled. I wouldn’t be surprised another month from now, price will easily triple if you still can find a seat. I can’t even imagine Honolulu’s hotel scene will be like in July! I would be very surprised if occupancy rates will be lower than 90% across board! That’s just one destination. I’m sure Vegas will go bunkers as well. Same with Disneyland’s on both coasts. People will be packing those places in. National parks will also be packed! Probably the best time to travel this year will be late September/ early October when kids are back to school and business travel has not picked up yet. Like you said, most places in the world is still not letting Americans in so international long hauls will still be a rarity.
Taiwan 2020 GDP growth: 3.1%. South Korea: -2.0%. To all the Americans that believe the world cannot survive without your 9 day summer holiday spend, it just ain’t so. Closed borders do cause economic pain, particularly for certain businesses, but protests of the few against the perceived needs of the many just don’t carry much weight in so many of the places you like to visit. Particularly in Asia, it may be an extremely long...
Taiwan 2020 GDP growth: 3.1%. South Korea: -2.0%. To all the Americans that believe the world cannot survive without your 9 day summer holiday spend, it just ain’t so. Closed borders do cause economic pain, particularly for certain businesses, but protests of the few against the perceived needs of the many just don’t carry much weight in so many of the places you like to visit. Particularly in Asia, it may be an extremely long road. Convincing populations that have managed public health quite well without vaccination to get inoculated so borders restrictions can be eliminated and you can visit? Countries that were bankrupt prior to COVID - looking at you Greece - may welcome Americans but others may (should) take their time. Wouldn’t book those 2022 fares quite yet.
I guess a "golden age"depends on your perspective. Hugh and I are golden as we are really old. Our version of travel is going to art galleries and opera performances , catching up with friends and relatives, and mostly staying in luxury service aparments. So, we are fairly predictable for the elderly gay Australian travel market.
I like to think the airfares I've booked recently are golden too. The prices we've booked at...
I guess a "golden age"depends on your perspective. Hugh and I are golden as we are really old. Our version of travel is going to art galleries and opera performances , catching up with friends and relatives, and mostly staying in luxury service aparments. So, we are fairly predictable for the elderly gay Australian travel market.
I like to think the airfares I've booked recently are golden too. The prices we've booked at are the lowest we've seen here for years. One of the airlines has the e-upgrade system, and again, that is a lower price range for bids than we've ever seen before.
If you are accompanying an old person who isn't very mobile, the booking systems for that have been improved a lot now compared to how it used to be.
I've noticed the airline websites ask before payment if you want their insurance. That includes covid19 on some, but excluded on others. One airline offers a cancel for any reason policy for a few extra dollars. I did notice that overall, travel insurance now though is quite expensive.
As for accommodation. The type of service apartment we tend to stay at was popular with business people. There still aren't all that many business people travelling, so these apartments can be quite a good price. We are also noticing that middle level comfortable hotels (Hilton/Intercontinental) are also offering lots of good rates. I suppose that's because of lack of business people.
Overall, we are getting better value now than we did before Covid19 down here. Then also we've had a few government stimulus travel vouchers which made travel almost free! Add to that we have some big exhibitions from famous New York, Paris and London art museums, so we are happy chappies.
I hope the rest of you can indulge a bit and get a lot of enjoyment from your travels. Remebering last Easter, this year seems so much more optimistic for us.
Once again people are being overly optimistic. Last I knew cases were rising in 21 different states. Spring breakers in florida are basically doing everything possible to spread the virus around the country again. Variants are popping up everywhere. I wish people would just look at Europe. They have routinely provided an indication of what we can expect for the near future. Europe had a plateau in cases like we did and now they have...
Once again people are being overly optimistic. Last I knew cases were rising in 21 different states. Spring breakers in florida are basically doing everything possible to spread the virus around the country again. Variants are popping up everywhere. I wish people would just look at Europe. They have routinely provided an indication of what we can expect for the near future. Europe had a plateau in cases like we did and now they have a surge and more lockdowns. We could avoid that fate, but the anti-masker crowd and the must travel this very moment crowd may very well set our entire country back. We just need people to chill for a few more months until more people are vaccinated. Not enough are vaccinated for the idiotic stuff we have been seeing in Florida.
Hi Ben, I agree with you that 2020 and early 2021 was the golden age of travel. I flew 100,000 miles in 2020 (it was necessary and I was able to bypass border restrictions for that reason) and it was so pleasant other than cancelled flights and closed lounges. Flights were empty, upgrades were wide open. Not sure summer 2021 will be the same. I flew 4 segments this past weekend and all the flights were packed.
@shoeguy: I'm aware of that. That's what I commented on. Delta's seat blocking ends in April. They've spent almost a year telling customers flying in the the middle seat was unsafe. They are going to have a big issue if they unblock middle seats. How do you get people to sit there, especially when "the experts" (albeit paid by Delta) cut social media ads and YouTube videos saying flying in a middle seat is dangerous....
@shoeguy: I'm aware of that. That's what I commented on. Delta's seat blocking ends in April. They've spent almost a year telling customers flying in the the middle seat was unsafe. They are going to have a big issue if they unblock middle seats. How do you get people to sit there, especially when "the experts" (albeit paid by Delta) cut social media ads and YouTube videos saying flying in a middle seat is dangerous. Delta should take a page from Air New Zealand and a couple others by selling passengers or families the whole row of seats. Sky bed or whatever they call it. And then on domestic flights, offer a cheap buy-up to get the extra space.
I'm having my golden age right now. Granted, I'm limited to a very small restrictions-free area but it happens to be area that I always loved and have been visiting often before covid. Hotels are ultra-cheap (down by up to 50%), there is plenty of availability, trains are restricted to 50% capacity meaning I always get a solo seat even if I book the 2nd class (2+2 config with aisle seats blocked) and I could...
I'm having my golden age right now. Granted, I'm limited to a very small restrictions-free area but it happens to be area that I always loved and have been visiting often before covid. Hotels are ultra-cheap (down by up to 50%), there is plenty of availability, trains are restricted to 50% capacity meaning I always get a solo seat even if I book the 2nd class (2+2 config with aisle seats blocked) and I could go on. The only downside is that restaurants/bars are only open until 20:30 (which often causes a congestion, especially on weekends) but that is a small price to pay for all the other benefits, not to mention ability to live a fairly normal life in 2020 and 2021.
Frankly, at this point I've stopped caring about policies of other places. Even if I could go there (some EU locations still accept EU tourists + I should be soon eligible for the EU green pass by the virtue of having had covid before), I don't really feel like putting up with masks, closed businesses and other nonsense.
The best case scenario right now is that I will get back home some time in autumn, a year after I left.
Still have my money on mid 22 at the earliest and "Normal" mid 23.
The virus is still evolving, one vaccine is already shown not to protect against the South African variant. Then if it becomes a annual shot OMG the logistics, administration, boggles the mind and the issue of a "Vaccine Passports" haven't even been mentioned!
The biggest sleeper though is every countries health department is watching each others and in the future...
Still have my money on mid 22 at the earliest and "Normal" mid 23.
The virus is still evolving, one vaccine is already shown not to protect against the South African variant. Then if it becomes a annual shot OMG the logistics, administration, boggles the mind and the issue of a "Vaccine Passports" haven't even been mentioned!
The biggest sleeper though is every countries health department is watching each others and in the future forever more. An outbreak of anything anywhere that kills humans, will be noticed. Watch how many more countries will rapidly shut their borders till further notice and some countries who during the first pandemic? Does anyone want start about how travel insurance is going to look like?
I saw that article in my news feed but only made it through the first 1-2 paragraphs before it became glaringly obvious the author has no clue what they are writing about. The past 12 months have been quite nice despite the lack of service domestically. My recent flight back from Australia in Delta One will be remembered as one of the best long-haul flights I've ever had.
If today is any indication of the...
I saw that article in my news feed but only made it through the first 1-2 paragraphs before it became glaringly obvious the author has no clue what they are writing about. The past 12 months have been quite nice despite the lack of service domestically. My recent flight back from Australia in Delta One will be remembered as one of the best long-haul flights I've ever had.
If today is any indication of the next 12-18 months, then the golden age is over. I'm currently en route RNO-SLC-ORD and it's the busiest I've seen any airports since pre-Covid. Busier than anything I saw around Thanksgiving and Christmas. This is the first time I've missed upgrades to F on both segments since Covid started. TSA had the longest line I've seen in year. As the recent Miami Beach post suggests, many people are 'over' covid and they don't care about waiting for their vaccine.
Golden shower of travel more like.....
Turkey seems like a safe-ish bet for this summer (especially late summer).
As of now will still need to get tested before your flight, but at this point that's fairly easy to do.
Let's hope I don't get stuck with 176k ANA points and eating my words. :)
It's just one data point, but I'm passing through ORD today and it's packed. This is the busiest I've seen it in the last year. More restaurants are open from what I saw a month ago. Lines at McDonald's and Starbucks look like pre COVID days. It's good to see. It's about time.
@Jimmy Gottfredson: The issue with flying now and for the next couple of years is the US airlines will use COVID as a continued excuse not to return to pre-COVID service, meals, catering, etc. Just like it took a decade after 9/11 for things to get close to pre-9/11 levels. International airlines like Emirates, Qatar and Turkish barely reduced service. They will return to pre-COVID standards ASAP because it's why people fly them, at least...
@Jimmy Gottfredson: The issue with flying now and for the next couple of years is the US airlines will use COVID as a continued excuse not to return to pre-COVID service, meals, catering, etc. Just like it took a decade after 9/11 for things to get close to pre-9/11 levels. International airlines like Emirates, Qatar and Turkish barely reduced service. They will return to pre-COVID standards ASAP because it's why people fly them, at least up front in the forward cabin. But Delta, American and United will milk this for as long as they can, especially in the case of American and United with unionized flight attendants not wanting to actually work.
@Beachmouse Maybe but most corporate offices are allowing remote work through September, which means lots of people will consider going to Europe for a couple weeks and remote working if necessary on top of any vacation days. People will passports want to go aboard. In many cases, they already purchased international vacations in 2020 and are sitting on credits to redeem for 2021 as soon as they can visit. Europe can't afford to stay closed another summer, which is why Iceland is opening. Greece will likely be open by June too. The poorer European countries can't handle another year with no tourists.
@FNT Delta Diamond, Delta blocks the middle seat so they can charge more per fare and create the illusion that (1) they care about your health and (2) they are a safer airline to fly. It is all smoke and mirrors and it has worked well for them.
@FNT, for the person with limited vacation time that needs to be applied for pretty far out, I see Europe as a hard sell this summer. Too many ongoing lockdowns heading into April and do you really want to be booking tickets to Paris when the Louvre or Eiffel Tower could be shut down when you get there? Even with easy airfare refunds and ticket changes, lots of folks will be going with the surer thing Grand Canyon trip instead
We’ve been traveling since summer of 2020. Close to home at first, and then wide US 48 since then. This spring volume is definitely up, and for the us citizen (with vaccinations north of 2.5 million a day) it will continue to get busier every week through this summer.
Regarding the golden age of travel; our last golden age was the teens, 2010-2020. Great advancements in plane products to fly, the entire world opening...
We’ve been traveling since summer of 2020. Close to home at first, and then wide US 48 since then. This spring volume is definitely up, and for the us citizen (with vaccinations north of 2.5 million a day) it will continue to get busier every week through this summer.
Regarding the golden age of travel; our last golden age was the teens, 2010-2020. Great advancements in plane products to fly, the entire world opening up more and more, and a flood of information available about places to go / things to do. COVID would be congruent to the fall of Rome, and the dark ages.
We are now in the beginning of a travel renaissance. Every day will be an small improvement, with inertia building over time. I think in reflection we’ll be surprised how fast things continue to improve. But, mask requirements and county to county restrictions will be slower; as humans are mostly cautious.
This renaissance I would estimate to last 2-3 years (starting 2021) to a mostly normal experience. Some travelers will progress faster than other, as risk tolerance will be a big factor. Golden age some time after that.
What is the opposite of click bait ? What a joke.
@Beachmouse I disagree. Everyone did road trips last summer. National parks were as busy as ever last July and August. Everyone wants to go international now. Iceland is opening. If the rest of the European Union and Canada doesn't fully reopen to Americans, I suspect Iceland will be crazy busy this summer. Especially if places like Hawaii keep their stupid testing requirements. Sure, some people will stay home and travel domestically, but I anticipate any...
@Beachmouse I disagree. Everyone did road trips last summer. National parks were as busy as ever last July and August. Everyone wants to go international now. Iceland is opening. If the rest of the European Union and Canada doesn't fully reopen to Americans, I suspect Iceland will be crazy busy this summer. Especially if places like Hawaii keep their stupid testing requirements. Sure, some people will stay home and travel domestically, but I anticipate any international destination open to Americans will be crazy busy this summer.
At the same time, Delta has a huge problem. They are telling us middle seats are unsafe. They literally have videos with so-called experts saying so. Yet they will presumably stop blocking middle seats at the end of April. Who wants to sit in a middle seat after being told by the airline for almost a year that flying in a middle seat was unsafe? I suspect Delta is going to have a very creative offer allowing passengers to buy the middle seat for extra space. They'll make a crap ton of money doing so.
This notion that we are entering a “Golden Age” of travel is delusional, especially on the international front. I’ll take a full flight any day over COVID PCR testing and quarantines, hotel and restaurant closures, and the associated expenses and stress with international border crossings that are the current norm. Unless and until all COVID and border restrictions (notwithstanding mask mandates on flights) are lifted, it’s definitely not a pleasure cruise.
When all international...
This notion that we are entering a “Golden Age” of travel is delusional, especially on the international front. I’ll take a full flight any day over COVID PCR testing and quarantines, hotel and restaurant closures, and the associated expenses and stress with international border crossings that are the current norm. Unless and until all COVID and border restrictions (notwithstanding mask mandates on flights) are lifted, it’s definitely not a pleasure cruise.
When all international travel restrictions are eventually lifted, demand will soar at Mach speed and I anticipate full flights and no fare wars. I’m sure the airlines will extend free flight changes until the recovery is complete but after that, expect 2019 all over again, possibly with fare hikes given that competition has decreased due to LCC airline failures.
I agree with you and your assessment. It will likely take 2-4 years or more before global travel returns to 2019 levels. A lot by then will have changed. Business travel will remain down and there will be a backlash should there be a return to mass tourism. While many corners of the world of tourism are hungry for tourist dollars and understandably so, the destructive element of huge cruise ships, hoards of tourists in...
I agree with you and your assessment. It will likely take 2-4 years or more before global travel returns to 2019 levels. A lot by then will have changed. Business travel will remain down and there will be a backlash should there be a return to mass tourism. While many corners of the world of tourism are hungry for tourist dollars and understandably so, the destructive element of huge cruise ships, hoards of tourists in places like Venice, Dubrovnik, and the ecological and environmental issues these all bring, although have not been reversed, have allowed some places to recover meaningfully. The era of cheap, tacky tourism is likely over for a while. Not a bad thing.
$1,400 stimulus payments + mass vaccinations = lots more people flying this summer and later this year, particularly people who in the past might have driven or taken the bus to a vacation destination due to financial constraints ($1,400 is a lot of dinero for a large portion of the Country). I will be booking a domestic flight in late June and fully expect the scene on the plane to look like a Greyhound bus.
Dunno about the world overall, but Florida seems to be having its Golden Age right now!
Golden age of travel seems ridiculous to me. People who are saying that clearly have no idea about how things are working. At the moment, many airlines are still on life support and are losing a lot of money. Networks have to be adjusted and flights will have to remain full. Many airlines are shrinking or in the process of doing so. This will impact also the ground offer with entire bases being closed potentially....
Golden age of travel seems ridiculous to me. People who are saying that clearly have no idea about how things are working. At the moment, many airlines are still on life support and are losing a lot of money. Networks have to be adjusted and flights will have to remain full. Many airlines are shrinking or in the process of doing so. This will impact also the ground offer with entire bases being closed potentially. Ultimately, competition will also suffer if only few players can survive. Market consolidation will be further accelerated.
In addition, what lucky wrote is very true. The world is in a lockdown state. You can't just go anywhere at any time at the moment. Regulations are complex, sometimes even for transiting. Things change on a weekly basis. It's a huge hassle.
Yes, there may be some upsides when it comes to overtourism, but even that.... what happens if tourism is concentrated to few areas can be seen in Florida and some other regions.
I personally hope that this whole pandemic mode will end as soon as possible.
One need not look beyond the current rental car shortage in the US to see that the resumption of travel is as likely to involve shortages and disruptions as it is to produce opportunities.
Had my first flights of the pandemic last week (Delta- they’re giving this leisure flyer a stupid easy path to PM this year due to generous MQM rollover) and it actually seemed to be a more chill experience with fewer Do You Know Who I Am? Types than in 2019, even with every seat Delta was willing to sell filled. And yeah, US domestic travel will be slammed this summer. My part of Florida was...
Had my first flights of the pandemic last week (Delta- they’re giving this leisure flyer a stupid easy path to PM this year due to generous MQM rollover) and it actually seemed to be a more chill experience with fewer Do You Know Who I Am? Types than in 2019, even with every seat Delta was willing to sell filled. And yeah, US domestic travel will be slammed this summer. My part of Florida was seeing record tourism months last year from June onward and I would not think of setting foot in a big name National Park this July or August because of the expected crowds. Masks- not going away until meaningful herd immunity is reached so if you hate them and don’t have any allergy issues, roll up that sleeve at first opportunity.
I won't be traveling anywhere for leisure until probably next year. I don't want to ruin my travel experience by going to a place where there are restrictions on what you can do, where you can go, etc... Restaurants won't be normal, museums, activities, etc..
Correction...I meant early 2020 above.
This is anecdotal but here in DC I have seen tourism in the past week for the first time since early 2019 (other than protestors and insurrectionists, if you can call them tourists...). It's noticeable because downtown is still very quiet so groups of three or four walking along the street together are often the only people on the block, and then you walk past them and hear "no, we need to go left at...
This is anecdotal but here in DC I have seen tourism in the past week for the first time since early 2019 (other than protestors and insurrectionists, if you can call them tourists...). It's noticeable because downtown is still very quiet so groups of three or four walking along the street together are often the only people on the block, and then you walk past them and hear "no, we need to go left at 11th St, not right" or something similar that pretty much confirms they're not local. Similarly the Mall yesterday, while not mobbed, had not only the local runners but groups taking pictures with various backdrops and saying things like "what's that building?" when passing one of the museums. It's the beginning of cherry blossom season, so I'm only expecting the numbers to increase over the coming weeks.
The golden age of travel? Fly Delta One business-class between Los Angeles and New York City and you can't get anything more than junk food snacks, one bottle of water, and maybe (if they cater enough) wine worse than Barefoot.
Countries will have to decide within the next few months whether they want to be a part of the global travel community again and welcome vaccinated tourists or pay the price via punishing lockdowns and lockouts of foreigners and the loss of tourism dollars.
Since virtually every democratic leaning country has a democratic form of government and limited resources to compensate people who lose their jobs, there is a limit to how long any...
Countries will have to decide within the next few months whether they want to be a part of the global travel community again and welcome vaccinated tourists or pay the price via punishing lockdowns and lockouts of foreigners and the loss of tourism dollars.
Since virtually every democratic leaning country has a democratic form of government and limited resources to compensate people who lose their jobs, there is a limit to how long any government can argue that controlling the vaccine was necessary to reopen the economy and then not doing it when it has been proven that US and UK death and case counts are already rapidly falling as those two countries lead the world in vaccinations.
Town & Country obviously has a different purpose and audience than OMAAT. I'm guessing their audience is more likely to be into cruises and easy itinerary travel who are especially looking forward to travel this year.
2021 will be an incredible year for domestic travel in the US or travel in Mexico and the Caribbean due to continued border closures in Europe and Asia. Travel to outdoor destinations with plenty of space like national and...
Town & Country obviously has a different purpose and audience than OMAAT. I'm guessing their audience is more likely to be into cruises and easy itinerary travel who are especially looking forward to travel this year.
2021 will be an incredible year for domestic travel in the US or travel in Mexico and the Caribbean due to continued border closures in Europe and Asia. Travel to outdoor destinations with plenty of space like national and state parks will probably set records. There will still be closures and capacity limits in typical domestic travel areas like Vegas and theme parks.
The summer of 2022 ( barring any COVID mutation that render vaccines completely useless) will see more relaxed border controls pushing record numbers of people abroad.
The golden age of travel is already over (I would estimate it lasted from March 2020 to January 2021, when a Covid test result was required to return to the US and when I noticed US flights getting significantly busier). As Buffet said, be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
A world-wide golden age? Not gonna happen. I can see a lot more domestic travel in the (physically) big countries that have Covid mitigation measures in place (vaccination or robust test and trace) and in some regions where groups of countries agree to accept travellers from each other. In a couple of weeks New Zealand is set to announce when quarantine-free travel from Australia will resume, and Australians now no longer need government approval to...
A world-wide golden age? Not gonna happen. I can see a lot more domestic travel in the (physically) big countries that have Covid mitigation measures in place (vaccination or robust test and trace) and in some regions where groups of countries agree to accept travellers from each other. In a couple of weeks New Zealand is set to announce when quarantine-free travel from Australia will resume, and Australians now no longer need government approval to travel there. Talk from the government of unrestricted two-way travel between Australia and Singapore is becoming more optimistic, if at this stage only for people who have been in the departure country for two weeks.
Maybe it's time to find where I put my passport, but not quite the occasion to book a grand tour flying around the world.
I suspect demand will ramp up before supply of air travel infrastructure at airports. Lack of parking options, long lines at food outlets, luggage delays, customs delays, etc. We are already seeing it this week of Spring Break. Nashville airport reporting hour long waits for arriving passengers to get their cars from valet or for shuttle busses this weekend. Airport services won’t increase staff until after they see the problem. Maybe this means they will...
I suspect demand will ramp up before supply of air travel infrastructure at airports. Lack of parking options, long lines at food outlets, luggage delays, customs delays, etc. We are already seeing it this week of Spring Break. Nashville airport reporting hour long waits for arriving passengers to get their cars from valet or for shuttle busses this weekend. Airport services won’t increase staff until after they see the problem. Maybe this means they will go through the growing pains before summer travel crush.
Asia looks off limits for 2021. Their vaccination rates are slow since they've managed COVID quite well. Condolences to Japan and the billions they spent on the Olympics.
Europe and the Americas might have some openings near end of year. Summer looks unlikely except select European countries.
".. if you draw the short straw) of finding yourself on a flight with a ‘support’ pig (or armadillo) in the seat next to yours...." Interesting, especially since armadillos, like humans, are subject to getting leprosy and, having long snouts, would have a hard time wearing a typical leper's mask. Yet I am sure you would agree that it would not be politically correct if airlines had failed to accommodate health-challenged, leprous service armadillos within...
".. if you draw the short straw) of finding yourself on a flight with a ‘support’ pig (or armadillo) in the seat next to yours...." Interesting, especially since armadillos, like humans, are subject to getting leprosy and, having long snouts, would have a hard time wearing a typical leper's mask. Yet I am sure you would agree that it would not be politically correct if airlines had failed to accommodate health-challenged, leprous service armadillos within their cabins.
I know people who have started to travel recently who marvel how easy the process is, but that is already rapidly changing. The quality of the travel experience will more depend on how things are at the destination than the airplane/airports themselves.
The summer will be crazy in the US. I think those that can swing international trips right when things reopen will find a pleasant experience.
If you're planning travel to Europe in early summer e.g. italy, spain etc., most are still currently closed to leisure travel, many hotels are closed and don't plan to open thru later summer (August 1 or later), and services will be limited.
Domestic US travel is going to be extremely busy this summer. A lot of those folks that would normally head to Europe will travel in the US instead. I have a trip...
If you're planning travel to Europe in early summer e.g. italy, spain etc., most are still currently closed to leisure travel, many hotels are closed and don't plan to open thru later summer (August 1 or later), and services will be limited.
Domestic US travel is going to be extremely busy this summer. A lot of those folks that would normally head to Europe will travel in the US instead. I have a trip planned to Europe... but have a back up one for Oregon should Europe not get their COVID passport sorted out.
The other key thing is the number of flights. Even if there is a COVID vaccination passport for the rest of the world, the airlines can't turn on a dime and suddenly have many more flights available. It's going to take a month+. And I've been receiving in the past month a lot of schedule changes on x-US flights as the airlines cancel flights and consolidate people onto others
That said, if the intent is to see sights and not concerned about the flight and hotels being full service, and persisting thru lots of schedule changes... destinations will find places much emptier of tourists and those places that are open will likely be fawning over you to get your business. I agree with @Jon that you're also going to see a lot of places in Europe shut down permanently if they get another washout summer.
I'm really starting to think most international travel is out the window for 2021.
I would expect the summer in the US to be nuts- if network planners do their job right, airlines should be running 95%+ load factors to leisure destinations. While competition will be fierce and base fares thus low high demand will lead to full flights, inventory closures, and higher fares than on peak days than in 2019. If Iceland stays open I expect each US airline to fly there with widebody aircraft. I would not...
I would expect the summer in the US to be nuts- if network planners do their job right, airlines should be running 95%+ load factors to leisure destinations. While competition will be fierce and base fares thus low high demand will lead to full flights, inventory closures, and higher fares than on peak days than in 2019. If Iceland stays open I expect each US airline to fly there with widebody aircraft. I would not anticipate Europe, Asia, or Australia opening anytime soon for Americans due to the pace of their vaccine rollout, and the southern winter combined with Covid spikes will make South American an unappealing destination this summer. If you want to travel domestically this summer- book now!
Maybe you’re right, but I have a feeling a lot of the destinations that rely heavily on summer tourists will really push to reopen, so they don’t miss another peak season. I can’t imagine businesses in somewhere like Venice surviving two summers without tourists.
Ben, it has always struck me how many believe that because they are vaccinated, they no longer pose a threat to others and hence will be free to travel.
Thing is, even if you are vaccinated, others may pose a threat to you because the latest virus mutations might not be detected by tests and might not be covered by the different vaccines. And if that happens, you are again a threat to others.
...Ben, it has always struck me how many believe that because they are vaccinated, they no longer pose a threat to others and hence will be free to travel.
Thing is, even if you are vaccinated, others may pose a threat to you because the latest virus mutations might not be detected by tests and might not be covered by the different vaccines. And if that happens, you are again a threat to others.
Global COVID-19 suppression will most likely include regular (yearly) new vaccinations and it is proven mobility is the key factor to virus spread, as one would expect for something that survives by jumping from one host to another.
IMHO, the idea of extensive, let aside fun travel in the years to come is just unrealistic.
Sorry.
I’ve already seen some flights start to increase in price significantly for this summer, in some cases to levels higher than what I probably would have expected to pay in 2019. If you’re planning to get back on planes (domestically, because I agree international borders won’t have reopened) this summer book soon!