In my over 18 years of writing about the airline industry, this has to be one of the strangest periods in time, and I’m not just talking about the Trump administration considering taking an ownership stake in Spirit Airlines.
Continue reading: Silly: United CEO Scott Kirby Argues US Airline “Trade Deficit” Is A Problem
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
A CEO trying to appeal to the authoritarian in chief to get what he wants (see Spirit bailout). And gambling in Casablanca? Shocking!
If Kirby continues to devalue me as a 1K flyer, especially since I don't want one of their credit cards, you can damn well bet I will look at foreign carries for the bulk of my travel which is international.
194 days until midterms. Vote to reign in abuses of power, hold corrupt politicians and corporations accountable. Enough of these feckless, sycophantic enablers and grifters.
True, but you don't really see Robert Isom Or Eddy B sucking up to both administrations in such a blatant fashion as Scott Kirby.
Scott is a smart guy but I don't think I've seen something blow like the prevailing wind since I was walking by a car dealership with those tube men blowing everywhere.
I hope he gets called out more and more by the MAGA faithful for his BS sycophancy.
Someone should list out all the bail outs in the last 50 years to shut him up on "Subsidies" and that's not even countring so many other things. Hypocrites.
I think this explanation is very simple. He’s sucking up to the president, who also has a thing for misusing the meaning of trade deficit
U.S. airlines also have more difficulty competing on long haul international routes because the U.S. government does not allow U.S. airports to offer visa free international flight connections. The Trump Administration's hostility to foreign visitors makes the problem even more acute.
You rang?
1980: Chrysler Corporation ($1.5 billion)
1984: Continental Illinois National Bank ($4.5b).
1989: Savings & Loan crisis ($132b).
2001: Airlines (post-9/11, $15b).
2008: Financial sector (Bear Stearns $30b, Fannie & Freddie $190b, AIG $182b, and more).
2009: Auto industry (Big three got $80b)
2020: Airlines ($50b), small businesses (PPP)... trillions in grants.
"...I will look at foreign carries for the bulk of my travel which is international."
You should be doing this already.
Kirby is bound do be in a tizzy after news broke that the administration is preparing a loan to NK. He has spent years telling us that UA is dead set to kill ultra low cost carriers and American and the upshot is that the US is just not going to let airlines to die, esp. low and ultra low cost carriers
AA just released its financial results for the 1st quarter and its 2nd quarter guidance and they will continue to grow capacity pretty aggressively. They are simply not motivated to be profitable and are the largest supplier of money-losing capacity - not the ULCCs.
I am hardly a Kirby fan but he and Bastian both agree that money-losing providers of capacity have to go; Kirby thinks that can be accomplished by killing American while DL has proven it wins against all competitors over time - something Kirby is unwilling to invest.
UA has to figure out how to win against all players while paying industry comparable labor costs - which AA, DL and WN are paying - and not do it by dumping capacity into the market which will depress yields.
MaxP says, "I hope he gets called out more and more by the MAGA faithful for his BS sycophancy."
A cursory review of Trumps' courtiers would reveal their own "BS sycophancy" (see Rubio, Vance, Graham, Tim Cook etc) so I am not sure that works.
To be fair - vast majority of foreign airlines don't the major source of revenue the US airlines have - which is bank partnerships and miles sales.
one issue that is legitimate and relevant but didn't brought up is that airports were not designed for international-to-international transit.
it means US airlines basically can compete on this front, and thus "the smaller share"
Kirby is "smart" to know how to kiss ass, but he isn't really smart. When UA becomes the first big US airline running into trouble when the economy/market sours, we will recall his so-called "smart" moves.
The problem with Scott is he likes to talks to much he wants to be the smartest guy in the room always and he needs to make sure that you know that he’s too emotional leader. He needs to shut the F up and stop talking about what happens currently on AA he hast been there in a decade number one and number two clearly he was hurt when he was not selected to fe the chosen one and that still bugging him.
Focus on your company on how to offer a Polaris Service that can go head to head or better than Emirates, Ethiad, Quatar, Singapore Airlines, Thahiti Airways those should be thd us airlines 3 big players focus and they need to stop looking at their cousins in Europe BA VA IB LH AF KLM etc they are the same or worst than the USA Big 8 please just shut up. When your Polaris service gets somewhere then you talk Scott in the meantime shut up
Q1 2026 Net Income (in $m)
UA: $699
SW: $227
DL: ($289)
AA: ($382)
Q1 2026 CF/Capex/FCF (in $b)
UA: 4.8/1.9/2.9
AA: 4.2/0.8/3.2
DL: 2.4/1.7/0.7
SW: 1.4/0.6/0.8
A little bit of humility from UAL will go a long way. Making fun of all competitors and all other executives will come back one day and hit the rear. UA was bankrupt just 20 years ago.
Or… he’s trying to tee up the administration to allow a B6 acquisition.
Also I’m curious Tim, why is UA more profitable than Delta this quarter? I remember you saying a few weeks ago they pushed back their results because they must be so bad, yet they beat Delta on income and FCF? This isn’t the first time you’ve been completely wrong on results. I remember when you were adamant that DL would order 787s right after their results last year but then they didn’t do that for months after - do you remember that?
So why do you think United is gaining so much on Delta now? Do you think Delta has a worse strategy or United has a better one?
I flew united from HKG to EWR yesterday and I have to say the hard product is better than most European carriers - I mean the service is pretty poor and there’s wasn’t an FA who appeared to be under the age of 50, but the management team has done their jobs. The IFE and seats are world class.
I refuse to buy that the service is a US culture issue. There are plenty of industries that deliver great service in the US (some of them are even unionized). Its a cultural issue within the big 3 long haul crews
pour little tiny tooled Andy and rebel who not only have to carry Scotty's water but can't read or interpret financial statements.
UA generated higher income because it engaged in sale and lease back transactions which goose the income statement but increase debt.
If you think adding debt is a good idea, then you can take the win. UA will be doing this all day long.
All it means is increases the chances that UA won't be able to acquire B6 because their debt load by the end of the year will look much more like AA's than DL's.
same thing applies to cash flow.
UA - and you two - are desperate to claim a win - but you all - just like Scotty's team manipulate numbers to make one thing good at the expense of another.
You do realize that UA stock is down 2.65% over the past 30 days which is only topped in "worseness" by WN.
DAL is up 5.55%.
Wall Street isn't fooled.
and neither is anyone here w/ a brain.
UA is just moving around the deck chairs on Titanic Willis Tower.
Adding debt is a great idea in this climate, the airlines need all the cash they can get. The other two reasons that United generated higher income b (its generous to call it income given Delta made a loss):
1. Delta made bad investments in other airlines
2. Delta had huge losses on their hedges
Both of these moves were bad and destroyed shareholder value - If you're going to say someone can't read the income statements Timmy you should at least read the whole income statement.
But all of these GAAP stuff aside, Yes on a non-GAAP basis Delta slightly edged out United - however this was a much closer quarter than what these two are typically at, which goes to show the gap is closing.
Also just for fun lets look at longer term horizons for wall street instead of idk a period where a war just randomly started....
UA beats DL on a 3Y, 5Y and 10Y basis... Wall street isn't fooled, UA's 3Y, 5Y and 10Y strategy has been better than DL's, DL's 30 day strategy may have won this time (due to them having an oil refinery...) but it turns out most people care about longer term returns. Should I keep track of returns and if UA ever beats DL on a 30 day period you'll say your argument is flawed right?
to no one's surprise, UA's fixation with market share comes at the cost of running a more profitable airline.
Actual DOT data shows that UA made $700 million less than DL in the first 3 quarters of 2025 on their international systems while AA basically operated its international network at breakeven due to consistent losses across the Atlantic and Pacific.
Perhaps Kirby should be a whole lot focused on running a best in class business instead of worrying about carrying share which UA clearly cannot carry as profitably as DL
"Adding debt is a great idea in this climate"
wow, just wow. You truly have no clue how to run any business or personal finances.
DL adjusts the value of its equity in other airlines. It is an ACCOUNTING adjustment which does not involve cash.
The same negative adjustment DL just did allowed DL to beat UA in net income in 3Q2024 when DL's operations melted down due to CrowdStrike.
You and the rest of the rabid UA fan club loves to cherrypick data while ignoring the big picture.
Even Matthew noted that DL's operating margin was higher than UA's in the MRQ.
and UA DID try to buy a refinery but failed.
Amazing how you love to belittle the strategies that DL succeeds at but UA does not including a less valuable credit card/loyalty program.
Kirby knows full well that AA has a more valuable loyalty program than UA and it drives him absolutely nuts - but likely won't change.
Neither you or him can accept the reality that UA is really #2 or worse in a whole lot of metrics.
I know and agree, voting red down the aisle and kicking incumbents out in my blue state. Career politicians that somehow become much richer after entering office. Grifters like Sherill, Sanders, AOC, Newsom, who care more about the national goings on instead of concentrating on their states/districts. You don't have to sell me on it 🙂
Yet, somehow you still rank him in the top three or five of your admired airline CEOs. The criteria must not be based solely on the balance sheet but should include management-union relations, employees-customers relations, contribution to the community and planet, etc... I understand it is a much harder task since it requires deep knowledge of foreign airlines CEOs because they shun public appearance and attention. However, corporate and societal culture set US airlines far below those of their foreign competitors. Trump graduated from Wharton business program. Yet, he failed to understand the functions of tariffs and the reason most economists are against it. It also explains why he threatened to sue the college should his transcripts be revealed to the public. But both guys share many similar characters, namely retribution, hypocrisy, embellishment.
Thank you Panthers fan! It's such an easy excuse to just say that the US has a bad service culture. Forgetting that the US is HUGE, and that will provide differences in how service is performed and perceived. Less polished but hospitality in the south, just get it done culture with no fanfare in the NE, laid back in SoCal, all different types of service. Much of the service culture in Europe is machines doing the bulk of public interactions. Go through AMS and let me know if that's the service culture that the US, or anyone, should be aspiring to. And Ben is a fan of the ME3, who are subsidized and gather the best of the best talent, but it's not like he goes out in to the rest of the country. Cairo says hello...
Ben himself has raved about his stays at some properties, like in his trip to Iceland. In that case, the country is not known for a service culture, but it came off as "charming" and I believe had a great rating.
I'd rather have one airline to be proud of. I don't want competition to lower fares, because I don't want lower fares. I want a situation pre-deregulation where flying was only available to the elite. I don't want to jostle for space with human garbage at airports. I don't want to have to share planes with trailer trash. I want the term "Basic Economy" to disappear and for everyone to follow United with 25% raises in airfare.
If United wants to fly STL-LHR or PIT-KEF they certainly can. Nothing is stopping them.
Ridiculous argument. I spent 10 years of the last 12 years of my life as a seafarer that did port calls all over the world every 2 months . I can tell you with absolute certainty that US carriers are far superior to 90% of all the other carriers out there.
I frankly don't mind UA. Some of my best flight experiences and service memories were on UA. Some crews - even on domestic widebodies - are truly impeccable. If there is a good redemption in Polaris - I would have no problem taking it.
Kirby is a clown. He likes the sound of his own voice and he certainly talks a lot. All he's done recently is copy Delta's play book and try to take credit for it as if he's some genius. Everyone knows a merger of that scale would be terrible for consumers. He's just tired of copying #1 and still winding up #2.
Ugh... Kirby's nose is so brown at this point that someone is gonna accuse him of being in blackface.
Mr. Kirby's comments are clear evidence that he is NOT the smartest person in the room. Early on, he made the statement that UA was the best airline in the history of aviation. After flying UA SFO-ICN I can tell you with absolute certainty that that is not the case.
People fly foreign carriers for the simple reason that they provide better value. Want proof? Look at the 2025 Skytrax's rankings. How many U.S. airlines in the top twenty? Zero!
Ban all international flights from the US, that would solve the deficit problem instantly!
Kirby is wrong about foreign competition. The only state subsidized airlines United competes with are the Chinese trio on routes to China. Apart from the odd Asian carrier (e.g. Air India and Vietnam Airlines), the only other state owned airlines if competes with are the three main Middle East carriers, which are not subsidized and are more profitable than United (until the Iran war) and only really compete on United’s routes to India. The vast majority of its competitors on Asian and European routes are not state owned (except Singapore Airlines by a commercially run sovereign wealth fund) and are not state subsidized.
Ooooo ooooo! I have an idea! Why not have a product on board that people actually want to fly?!?!?! Its like, people will flock to you when you're product is appealing, who f*** knew!?!?
When flying to Japan: ANA or United?
Singapore: Singapore or United?
Dubai: Emirates or United?
These are just some examples dumb.
The main issue for US airlines is that their hard and soft products are mediocre at best.
So how would one US airline flying to Europe rather than 3 flying to Europe increase the US market share? It's not like one big consolidated airline would continue to fly 6 airplanes if they could get away with 5. Prices would go up, flights would get cut, international airlines would take the overflow, US market share would go down.
The issue is foreign government subsidized airlines. Emirates, for example. Competing with a blank-check government subsidy is a big problem for US carriers. This has been a concern of the US airline industry for decades and is not 'news'. However, even though foreign airlines cannot fly between two points in the US, they are encroaching further into the marketplace by flying to more destinations in the US. For example, BA just announced STL-LHR, which competes with US carriers who would provide one-stop service to LHR through their hubs, a more efficient (but less palatable to the consumer) method of filling long-haul aircraft.
The only reason for his public comments about merging is to play with the stock prices and to fluff his ego. Theres much wrong with his ideas if you will. Open skies should be curtailed and managed better. You can't have both partnerships/codeshares and Open skies too. As far as product goes, there should be some creativity to set themselves apart a unique great product that people like and not just wallstreet. And they should keep their mouth shut, and stop giving into these activist investors seriously, run it right and safe. Use more widebodies on domestic routes and stop with the
Frequency increases which has gotten unsafe and its not as good for environment.
The way american capitalism works, one big (and only) US airline would fire a lot of people, jack prices up as high as possible, and fly only 100% full flights. There's zero ways it would improve anything.
Ok who watches the market news? Lets see Paramount takes over Warner Brothers. Trump likes the CEO at Paramount who outbid Netflix. All the Trumps including son-in-law with Saudi money are involved.
I can see that Scott Kirby is paying attention to the current Trump landscape. Watch out for the next big airline merger in America.