Well this is a bit unusual. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is reporting that it’ll be the busiest Thanksgiving for air travel in 15 years, while airline data suggests otherwise. There’s an interesting explanation, as it comes down to different definitions of ”busy.”
Continue reading: Wow: Thanksgiving Air Travel Demand Down 5%, With Record Flights Operating
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
Well, Cirium's period of analysis is only from Wednesday through Sunday.. while FAA in this chart you show starts earlier. I'm traveling tomorrow, Tuesday, and that's not captured in the Cirium sample. I know a lot of people who are either traveling before the Wednesday or after the sunday the 30th... so it seems like the traditional Wednesday- Sunday time period isnt necessarily the best lens for this analysis.
Sure, it's anecdotal, but I havent flown on the traditional wednesday- sunday time period for years, and I dont know of anybody who has.
Even lower without reading the article. You’ll get upgraded like a champ this week with any sort of status.
Also, FAA's time period extends through next week - MOnday an Tuesday. Those, too, are increasingly busy travel days for Thanksgiving returns.
Also, the Cirium has a huge hole in its source material as you point out - only through online travel agents, no examination of direct bookings. That's a huge hole as people move increasingly to book directly.
I dont think that there will necessarily be fewer passengers over the entire period. Maybe through Cirium's narrow sample, but that doesnt necessarily translate into lower numbers actually traveling over the course of the extended Thanksgiving holiday.
In that regard, then your travel pattern shouldn't affect Cirium's claims, no? If you've never been a Wednesday-Sunday flier, and that isn't changing this year, then you simply are out of the sample.
The 5% decline is YoY for that time period, so unless there's a significant portion of the public that shifted from Wednesday flying to Tuesday flying (and so isn't caught by their lens), it's still an overall decline.
It's hard to blame people for not booking when they weren't sure if there would be disruption.
I wonder if you'll get a last minute uptick, though they might not do that if airlines are unwilling to lower last minute pricing
Queue the OMAAT lunatics in the comments. I wonder who they will blame today, "Trump", "Putin", "Israel", "ROC vs PRC" yadayadayada.
I'm not sure people should get so happy they're going to upgraded. I just paid an upgrade fee of $600 for Thanksgiving MIA/SFO with only two seats open. My hunch is that people with money are still flying and still buying or cash upgrading to premium.
My hunch is that the lower of the economic scale is really hurting, they're overextended on credit and will be spending the holidays at home. I went to the grocery store Saturday to buy three days worth of food more myself. Just about $100. Really what is a family of four spending for weekly groceries?
it's actually your mom's fault bc when she flies on a plane the rest of the seats need to be empty
Fair enough, but I'd still look at the total time period and not just the old standard Wednesday- Sunday. Those days arent even when the largest number of flights are anymore.
Changes in the percent of tickets booked through direct airline channels affects this data.
and many people are changing their travel habits to avoid the peak travel days including by extending the length of their travel past the traditional window.
The government was shut down when US airlines reported their 3rd quarter financials and issued 4th quarter guidance. Multiple airlines have said since the government shut down that the 4th quarter would be strong domestically and they haven't revised their guidance so the chances are that, even though there may have been some movement within the data Cirium or the FAA measured, it isn't affecting the quarter as a whole.
It’s not that complicated. A lot of people are out of work and are also plain financially insecure. I think we know whose fault it is. Same corrupt pedo (“allergy”) that loves to assign blame to others but takes none himself.
I have last minute trip right now from Mon to Wed and it is practically super light at SFO. My flight back from Dallas on Wed seems to have almost 30% availability!
I was prepared for long lines and it took me 15 mins through security and 5 mins of wait at the Club (i have never just waltzed in before).
let's also not forget that there has been alot of capacity pulled from the US air transportation system by NK and other low cost/ultra low cost carriers.
Without having the change in capacity over the same period as the citation about reduced demand, the reduction in demand data is meaningless.
Absolutely agree. I wish the Cirium data could capture a wider range of dates, since that sampling would be interesting.
the OTA vs Direct Booking trends could be a big factor too - I haven't looked, and I haven't seen much about whether people are migrating away from OTAs outside of more anecdotal stories from friends who find that direct booking is marginally less confusing with all the fare types.
And then there is another article with a different take:
“Airlines predict record numbers of travelers this Thanksgiving”
https://apple.news/AK_bMYhGsTE2YOv51Tu5EJA
Good for you.
I'm flying MSP - ATL on Monday and the prices were a bit lower than usual. I still don't expect any upgrades because there will still be a hundred concierge key members ahead of me lol.
Government shutdown had people afraid to book and now it's too late/expensive to book. I imagine the roads will be even busier this year.
Prices were beyond insane for my usual Thanksgiving route, and many consumers are becoming more price conscious. Only reason I’m heading home this week is because booking with miles was a solid deal
That said, the other side of the coin have more money than ever. F cabins have been full on both legs for a month+ now. So no, do not expect upgrades to be easy. Even if seats are available, the highest spenders will take those before your upgrade clears
@betterbub - Your comment is not only embarrassing for you, but it’s really embarrassing this is the caliber of Ben’s audience and you’re even a Diamond member. Good job to you both on such a gross accomplishment.
Additional data point: I had tickets booked around Christmas between NYC and PSP.
The same tickets (AA & AS) are now much cheaper. Not sure if it means that demand for travel is less than originally planned.
Personal datapoint: I have to fly to CVG for the weekend for my cousin's wedding (who the heck schedules their wedding Thanksgiving weekend). I originally booked my flight there (Friday) in F and the one back (Sunday) in Y (both on AA). Was able to switch the flight back to PHX to F last week (when saver availability opened on AS), and the flight to CVG dropped 12k miles to 22.5K on AA, so I was able to rebook and get some miles back. So I was able to find some nice value on this trip.
Some outside America find it interesting that Thanksgiving is such a busy travel period. It is not the case in all countries. In many countries, other holiday or religious periods tend to have a much higher volume of travellers.
@jake212. You want to know what’s an embarrassment? The person in the White House and their appointees currently wrecking USA. Don’t blame china or whomever, this is an inside job.
Usual BS from the Government. Have you thinking everything is fine while everything is falling apart in the country by idiots unqualified for their employment positions while they fire the qualified people that know what they are doing and are no longer working.
What a great year to be an airline employee. There might actually be stand-by space around a major holiday.
well，i will not be for an upgrade, but i repriced my tickets to a super cheap one. And I saw the upgrade is also super cheap.
@Tim Dunn
You must be the same guy that I mentioned to recently that "Boy, the sky is so blue today" and who argued with me as to how that is not actually correct.
Dude, chill on the Cliff Clavin routine. Often the sky is blue.
no one said it wasn't.
I did say that a basis of comparison (capacity change) matters if you (or anyone) is going to make a comparison (decline in traffic).
Thanksgiving in Canada is not much of a travel holiday. People will have dinner with friends or relatives but it is not the huge migration it is in the US. Chinese new year is actually a big deal in many Canadian cities as is Eid, Divali, Hanukkah and Christmas. My question was how has American Thanksgiving become such a massive holiday travel period historically?
Different God messenger, different propaganda.
People who landed in Newfoundland had different self interpretation of God's will than people who landed in New England.
You don't see In God we trust in Canada, so no Canadian supreme being wants Canadians to travel.
It's Tim Dunn you're talking to.
The sky is Premium blue.
Because Delta is the most profitable in the sky, per earnings call and incomplete FAA data.
Americans are hateful people, always wanting to find people to blame. That is why they will only meet family once a year during Thanksgiving that requires them to travel.
Prices for flights and hotels outside the US (Paris, London, Tokyo) were up substantially compared to the weeks before and after the holiday