I do desperately want this just for what it'll mean for the sushi industry in the city. Its so much easier when you have direct flights to Asia. I can't believe how good the sushi is in salt lake because what they can get onto a delta cargo flight.
Rumor of Korean Air launching flight to Orlando came almost two years or so ago, and nothing ever happened since.
ANA and JAL have even smaller international fleet than Korean Air, both in terms of their current fleet and the orders.
Certainly Florida deserves a direct flight to Asia though.
ICN-MCO is not viable for Korean Air because Korean DOT never allows any flight over 16h. When it exceeds 16h, they must make a technical stop to replace the crews with no exception.
Even ATL-ICN or JFK-ICN sometimes make technical stops at NRT in the winter, and MIA-ICN is even longer.
But Delta can do it if they really want to because US DOT allows 16h+ flights.
People forget that JAL ordered 20 internationally-configured A350-900s in 2024. This would be the ideal aircraft for launching a city like Miami. JAL also has 10 787s (an 10 additional options) on order.
Absent MIA, it's difficult to see where else in the US JAL could or would even want to expand. In particular, if either CLT or PHL were viable, American would've launched them long ago on its own metal.
I suppose we could see Portland, Austin or maybe a secondary California airport like SJC or ONT. Phoenix seems unlikely with 2x per day to TPE; LAS is too leisure-oriented. Nashville, New Orleans and Raleigh are all likely too small. Where else am I missing?
But unless JAL plans to use its order book simply to replace older regional aircraft, or maybe to expand in Australia (PER? BNE?) or Europe (MAD? MAN?), I can't see where else in the world would make more sense than MIA.
A35K is the flagship for JAL, and they fly it to high-demand and premium markets only. 787-9 will be the best fit for flights to/from Florida.
Right, but I wasn’t talking about the A35K. I was talking about the forthcoming A359s.
Oh sorry I missed it! I thought JAL had A359 in domestic config only and didn't know they ordered another config for international service.
Yeah, A359 will also work well, but 789 could be better. I think even A359 may be too big for Tokyo-Miami service. JAL will keep both 789 and A359, and 789 will be used for the lowest demand markets.
I've long been somewhat surprised that Nashville doesn't have a nonstop to Japan, with both Nissan and Bridgestone in the city (more or less), and there's even a Consulate General there as well. Toyota's massive Kentucky operations aren't that far away, either. I suppose the overall metro area just isn't considered as large enough.
I remember reading that LAS was the largest unserved market from TYO before the recent decline in tourist in LAS.
Absent MIA? PHX has been rumored heavily in the last few years since the TSMC boom started.
SJC has ZG already, so I don't see a lot of value in adding a mainline JL flight there. ONT could be interesting to compete with the Taiwanese carriers, but I don't know how much more juice could be squeezed there.
This is definitely getting to the point of just daydreaming but what if JAL added a tag fifth freedom flight from MIA to GRU to serve the large Japanese population there?
Unfortunately, not having sterile transit makes this uncomfortable, but it would otherwise be an insanely popular flight.
Delta would be the most premium choice, just stating facts, that's all I do, I'm a facts-stater and the smartest person here, applying the rigour of math and logic and the passion of Donald Trump looking at a 12 year-old.
He lives in your head 24/7. I'd say that' makes you the loser and he's the winner. Just stating facts here.
Surely if MIA was such a juicy plum there would be nonstops already? For sure there's plenty of money at both ends, but is the demand really there?
Sorry, PHX is next up for JAL.
This would then put into the most hyped up comparison: is it more affordable to go to Disneyland in Tokyo or Disneyworld in Orlando? Overall, Tokyo would be much cleaner, smell less significantly, and less hot.
"while international connections in Miami aren’t ideal, it’s still the best option for most people connecting to Latin America, given American’s huge network from there'.
Considering that AA only fly to 4 cities in the Southern Cone countries and (notwithstanding some collaboration with Gol) don't have an alliance partner in Latin America, what do you think makes MIA a better connection option than MEX?
20 years ago Boston only had a handful of intl flights then they tried subsidizing landing fees and that spurred an explosion of new intl flights (including japan and others). The airlines found the routes to be profitable and the subsidy ended without any routes being cut. Quite a successful story of govt intervention. Not sure if it would work for MIA but it's possible that it would.
BOS is much farther north geographically and much wealthier than MIA, Boston has 60% higher per capita GDP over Miami, one of the richest cities in the US. That makes the economics completely different.
BOS is much closer to Asia than MIA by over 700 miles. Not to mention demographically, Boston has a significantly larger Asian population than Miami.
In every single possible way, Boston has massive advantages from a yields, cost, demand, and aircraft performance perspective. They really are not even comparable.
Hello Ben,
I read your article last night and hopefully the below actual market data would be able to convince you and any doubters as to why a new MIA-NRT/HND service has a lot of long term potential.
Florida-Tokyo p2p demand increased from 279K in 2024 to 368K in 2025 i.e. +32% growth.
Miami-Tokyo pure p2p demand increased from 71K in 2024 to 113K in 2025 i.e. +59% with the average one way fare being US$ 1966 with YQ included. This is without any nonstop service.
The block time for this route is 15 hours 20 minutes hence perfectly suited for either the B789 or B77W but obviously to begin with the former is better due to operational economics.
The p2p fare yield of MIA-Tokyo in 2025 was higher than Los Angeles and Houston.
Belly cargo would be full in both directions be it on the B789 or the larger B77W as the demand is there. Via MIA, you have a massive amount of AA connections to Southeast USA + Caribbean. Yes I don't expect Latin American pax to patronize flying to Tokyo via Miami due to the immigration/customs hassle, but they may if the fare is competitive and if EK/QR/ET/BA/LH/TK/AF do not have seats available.
MIA-Tokyo 4 weekly B789 effective S27 season is adequate for a start by AA or JL. Preferably AA in my opinion due to the nearby feed it can get via MIA.
Am curious why isn’t there sterile transfer options in MIA
In my estimation, there are few reasons to transfer international to international in the US, but of all the airports, MIA makes quite a bit of sense. LAX would also be helpful, but apparently it wasn’t on their list when they redid TBIT.