Ultra low cost carriers in the United States have been struggling in recent years, given the industry realities, from increased labor costs, to evolving consumer preferences. They’re constantly updating their route networks in hopes of improving profitability (well, or more accurately, reducing losses).
I don’t usually cover route additions from ultra low cost carriers, since they change routes as often as many people change their underwear. However, Frontier Airlines has announced some very interesting additions, which I can’t help but talk about a bit, given the current state of the industry.
In this post:
Frontier Airlines adds intriguing new routes
Frontier has announced that it’s adding a total of 20 new routes, all set to commence in late 2025 or early 2026. Here’s how Frontier CEO Barry Biffle describes this expansion:
“Frontier is not just about delivering low fares – we’ve made major enhancements, from product upgrades to the most rewarding loyalty program, and investments in technology and service, as part of The New Frontier. That’s why Frontier is America’s Low Fare Airline, delivering the best value every day – and we see a clear path to being the number one low-fare carrier in the top 20 U.S. metros. As industry capacity adjusts, we want to ensure consumers in those markets continue to have affordable flight options.”
Specifically, the airline will launch the following flights:
- Baltimore (BWI) to Cancun (CUN) weekly as of November 22, 2025
- Baltimore (BWI) to Fort Lauderdale (FLL) 3x weekly as of November 20, 2025
- Baltimore (BWI) to Houston (IAH) 3x weekly as of November 20, 2025
- Baltimore (BWI) to New Orleans (MSY) 2x weekly as of February 12, 2026
- Charlotte (CLT) to Detroit (DTW) 2x weekly as of November 23, 2025
- Charlotte (CLT) to Fort Lauderdale (FLL) 3x weekly as of November 21, 2025
- Dallas (DFW) to New Orleans (MSY) 2x weekly as of February 13, 2026
- Detroit (DTW) to Cancun (CUN) weekly as of November 22, 2025
- Detroit (DTW) to Fort Lauderdale (FLL) 3x weekly as of November 20, 2025
- Detroit (DTW) to Houston (IAH) 3x weekly as of November 21, 2025
- Detroit (DTW) to Miami (MIA) 3x weekly as of November 21, 2025
- Detroit (DTW) to New Orleans (MSY) 2x weekly as of February 12, 2025
- Fort Lauderdale (FLL) to Chicago (ORD) 3x weekly as of November 20, 2025
- Fort Lauderdale (FLL) to Houston (IAH) weekly as of November 22, 2025
- Houston (IAH) to Guatemala City (GUA) 3x weekly as of December 18, 2025
- Houston (IAH) to New Orleans (MSY) 2x weekly as of February 13, 2025
- Houston (IAH) to Philadelphia (PHL) 3x weekly as of November 21, 2025
- Houston (IAH) to San Salvador (SAL) 3x weekly as of December 19, 2025
- Houston (IAH) to San Pedro Sula (SAP) weekly as of December 20, 2025
I’ll talk more about the rationale for these routes below, though I can’t help but be a bit puzzled by the frequencies in some markets. I understand the economics of routes are tough, so I’m not expecting multiple daily flights in each of these markets. But how much market share can you really hope to gain if you’re flying routes like Houston to Fort Lauderdale once weekly?
These routes are an attack on Spirit Airlines
As you can see, there’s a big focus here on Baltimore (BWI), Detroit (DTW), and Houston (IAH). It just so happens to be that those are all major focus cities for Spirit Airlines as well. By my math, 19 of the 20 routes being added are currently served by Spirit. Why would Frontier suddenly be attacking Spirit focus cities?
Keep in mind that Spirit recently issued a dire warning about its financials, in the form of a going concern warning, that it may not be able to continue operating for 12 months. The airline just emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection several months ago, but seemingly with no real plan to actually start turning an operating profit.
The airline has been burning through cash at an unbelievably fast rate, and there are already reports that Spirit’s lessors are approaching other airlines to see if they might be interested in planes currently being leased to Spirit.
With these flights launching in late 2025 and early 2026, I have to imagine that Frontier thinks this is being timed with the carrier being “the last man standing” in its battle with Spirit. If Spirit were to go out of business — and we’re getting way ahead of ourselves here — one wonders to what extent that would help Frontier’s situation.
Of course it would be positive for Frontier, but would it put the airline into a spot where it stops hemorrhaging money? I mean, Frontier’s financial performance is only not-terrible in comparison to Spirit’s. It would certainly allow Frontier to pick and choose markets a bit more, and potentially open up some more lucrative opportunities. But without more robust loyalty revenue, it’s hard to be successful.
Bottom line
Frontier Airlines is adding 20 new routes as of late 2025 and early 2026. What’s interesting about this latest route network shuffle is that these are almost entirely routes also served by Spirit Airlines, as there’s increasingly doubt about the carrier’s ability to survive.
Frontier’s management hasn’t been secretive about its desire to beat Spirit in its battle for survival, and definitely sees upside. Then again, I’m not sure once weekly flights between Houston and Fort Lauderdale will exactly rake in the cash.
What do you make of Frontier’s latest expansion?
The 2 carriers have a similar business model. Why is Spirit in trouble but not Frontier? Revenue or expenses?
Frontier's not exactly doing well either
of course F9 smells blood.
but NK's board and advisers have also likely crossed any cooperation w/ F9 off the list as part of a potential restructuring or asset sale.
F9 has hundreds of its own aircraft on order - far more than it can successfully deploy, it is losing money, and its business model is as broken as NK's
Frontier had a before tax loss of ($40) million in Q1. For Q2, a traditional stronger quarter for airlines that soared ($70) million. That tells me Frontier can't shake the ULCC image either. Maybe Spirit going out of business will change Frontier's fortunes but a bunch of additional flyers looking for a roundtrip fare of $100 won't do anything to stop the red ink.
The problem isn't because of ULCC competitors.
It's because the legacies are now going more aggressively against ULCC.
In some markets, the prices are almost the same.
Ben obviously hasn't been following closely on Frontier networks.
They've been doing like this for years.
Well maybe not as many in one season but they do go after Spirit, Sun, Allegiant on many markets and also dropping a lot after a season too.
@ Eskimo -- Of course, Frontier always attacks the markets of other airlines, whether ULCCs or legacies. However, I don't ever recall seeing an expansion of this size, so singularly targeted at an airline.
If Spirit goes out of business, where can we go on YouTube to see passenger fighting on planes with each other, passengers fighting at check in desks with agents, and everyone pulling hair, scratching, punching, screaming, and repeating the same phrase to their opponents over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again?
Maybe Frontier can pick up that slack.
Spirit is a significantly better airline than Frontier. I think Spirit just has bad name brand recognition (similar to Ryanair) but they haven’t been able to take average of it
@ splane21 -- Agree, Spirit is actually quite pleasant to fly, and has friendly staff. I'll take Spirit over Frontier any day.
I think the issue is that following the pandemic, the airline did very little to innovate and evolve, and was so focused on the merger situation, to the point that management forgot to run the airline. Now they're trying to fix things, but it's possibly too little too late.
I'm curious if anything else may have played into Spirit's finances. Frontier didn't really change their model until recently (can't have been more than a year head start compared to Spirit off the top of my head), so Frontier and Spirit were operating similar models while Spirit was working on the acquisition by jetblue. Did Spirit stop analyzing and tweaking it's route network during that time, to the point it was flying unprofitable routes that...
I'm curious if anything else may have played into Spirit's finances. Frontier didn't really change their model until recently (can't have been more than a year head start compared to Spirit off the top of my head), so Frontier and Spirit were operating similar models while Spirit was working on the acquisition by jetblue. Did Spirit stop analyzing and tweaking it's route network during that time, to the point it was flying unprofitable routes that should have been cut under normal circumstances? I mean, Frontier wasn't exactly innovating much differently compared to Spirit (if my memory is correct) up until recently. Does Spirit have higher costs compared to Frontier? Did one year of sustained losses really hurt the carrier so much that they will go under while Frontier doesn't? And didn't jetblue have to pay a huge fee to Spirit because the merger failed? I just find it hard to fully understand why Spirit is in such a worse position compared to F9.
@JB
Spirit has P&W opportunity costs.
And their model isn't exactly the same.
In short, F6 has less frequency but more destinations so bad for customers, good for loads.
Then the overnight plane positionings.
Lastly, some how F6 is doing a little better and growing at ancillary revenues.
And now maybe you can explain a little more how a Bulgarian ACMI specialist airline is beating Spirit.
What's F6?
I stand corrected.
Too much 69 will mess you up.