As an aviation geek, I thought it would be interesting to discuss perception of airline safety. I’ll share how I feel, and then I’d love to hear what OMAAT readers think. Why do I bring this up?
- Every so often we see airline safety rankings published, which often have questionable methodologies
- Readers often ask if there are any airlines I’m afraid to fly, or if I consider safety ratings when booking airlines, as I’ve flown some unique airlines over the years
- I have a non-avgeek acquaintance who messages me every time she’s about to book a flight and simply asks if the airline she’s about to book is safe, and I’m very tempted to send her this post 😉
I’ll share my thoughts, noting that my perspective on this has evolved over the years.
In this post:
I used to be terrified of flying
Before I get too deep into this, let me note that while I’ve been in love with airplanes since a young age, there was a period where I was terrified of flying. Every time we took off my palms would get sweaty and I’d take deep breaths. I’d think about all of the things that could possibly go wrong.
What if there’s an explosive in the cargo hold? What if one of the pilots is suicidal? What if some maintenance wasn’t done correctly, and that last screw holding a piece of the plane together finally comes loose? It’s easy to think about these things given the lack of control we have when flying.
In my case, my fear of flying started after an awful Royal Jordanian flight in 2013 where I thought I was going to die. I’ve flown millions and millions of miles, and to this day that’s the only flight where I actually thought we were in danger (I’ll never know if we really were). It took me over six months before I was even remotely over my fear of flying.
I mention this because I don’t want to dismiss the fear of flying that some people have. I’ve been there, so I can relate to it, even if it is an irrational fear.
I think about all the things that could go wrong
Further to the above point, I’m not over my fear of flying because I’ve taken an “ignorance is bliss” approach, and just don’t think about things. Quite to the contrary, as an avgeek I notice just about everything when flying, good and bad.
I’ll take it a step further — whenever I fly a new airline or to a new airport, I look up the “accidents & incidents” page for the airport or airline, because I find it interesting.
On the surface I also have concerns about the practices at some airlines based on firsthand reports I’ve heard from pilots and other employees there, as well as the safety records that airlines have. I don’t want to name and shame here, but just to give a few examples:
- I have concerns about the maintenance practices at some airlines
- I have concerns about pilot training, pilot experience, and pilot fatigue, at some airlines
- I have concerns about the corporate cultures at some airlines, where pilots fear punishment if they report safety issues
- Across the board I have concerns about pilot mental health, especially at airlines that don’t have a second person go into the cockpit when one pilot leaves
- I have concerns about pilots being a bit rusty after returning to flying, since many were furloughed during the pandemic; similarly, with a pilot shortage looming, we’re seeing a lot less experienced pilots than before
- There are some airlines that have historically had very bad safety recordings, but they’ve improved considerably in recent years
I think most people would agree that these are all pretty legitimate, mainstream concerns. Never mind the reports in some countries of pilots flying with fake licenses, or that at some airlines hiring and promotions are based at least partly on who you know.
So while I think some airlines don’t use “best practices,” the industry overall is incredible when it comes to safety. The statistics show that you’re just about as safe in the air as on the ground, even if I’m (frankly) shocked that more things don’t happen. I continue to believe that flying is an absolute miracle.
Why I’m not worried about airline safety
Having said all of the above, I’d fly just about any airline in the world without hesitation. Why don’t I care about airlines’ safety records? Because to me it seems silly to try and make judgment calls between airlines. When you look at the statistics, even the less safe airlines in the world are safer than so many other activities we engage in on a day-to-day basis,
When I get in an Uber or Lyft, I don’t do in-depth research as to the safety ratings or the car types that various drivers are in, even though that would arguably be more rational.
When I fly I simply hope for the best, and put my life in the hands of the pilots, mechanics, and whatever higher power, because anything else would just be silly, in my opinion. If I do die on a plane, then I just had really bad luck, and so be it — I died doing what I love (not to be grim here, but it is how I feel).
But if I actually wanted to overanalyze the safety record of every airline, I’d be left with very few airlines to fly.
That’s not to say that I won’t keep looking at safety records as I choose airlines (simply because it interests me), but they won’t change what I book. Though I will say that when I flew TAAG Angola a few years back, I couldn’t help but shriek a bit at the fact that the airline had to “write off” a third of its Boeing 737-200s. Ouch.
At least that’s how I’m feeling as of now. Who knows, maybe if I have another Royal Jordanian-esque experience my opinion will change again.
Why airline safety rankings are useless
There are plenty of organizations out there that put out annual rankings about the world’s safest airlines, and I find the lists to be kind of puzzling. For example, JACDEC (the Jet Airline Crash Data Evaluation Center) publishes rankings of the world’s safest airlines, and here are the top 10:
- Emirates
- KLM
- JetBlue
- Delta
- EasyJet
- Air Canada
- Southwest
- Sprit
- Ryanair
- Qatar
Personally I find the whole concept of these kinds of lists to be strange. How do you really rank safety among airlines that haven’t had a fatal accident in well over a decade? And I don’t want to say too much, but claiming that Emirates is the world’s safest airline is a real head-scratcher…
My point is simply to say that I wouldn’t put too much weight in these rankings, or make any decisions based on this. In other words, your takeaway shouldn’t be “well I guess I should fly JetBlue over American, because it’s a much safer airline.”
Bottom line
Aviation is incredibly safe, and that’s a testament to the industry overall. Understandably many people are still scared of flying, because being hurled through the sky in a metal tube at 500 miles per hour without any control is kind of a miracle, if you ask me.
While I constantly consider risks when flying, that’s largely just because I’m interested in aviation. At the end of the day I’ll gladly fly with any airline, though. Even less safe airlines are significantly safer than most other forms of transportation.
And even for those who are more cautious shouldn’t be concerned when flying a vast majority of airlines. Whether it’s American, or Qantas, or Lufthansa, or Cathay Pacific, these airlines all have top notch safety records.
I’m curious how OMAAT readers feel about airline safety — is it something you think about, and does it factor into the airlines you choose to fly?
The real reason why the safety records do not matter is because there is no common standard. If there were common benchmarks then you could equally compare airlines. Also, some airlines have a very small fleet but others have a huge fleet. How can you compare them both equally...
The real reason why the safety records do not matter has nothing to do with standards.
Investments, Credit cards, loyalty programs, sports, Bitcoins, roulette, or even your ex, have all in common.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Has anyone heard of Flyone? They seem to be the only airline offering direct flights from Yerevan to Tbilisi. I'm a bit apprehensive and travelling on that route by minibus doesn't sound appealing either...
Train?
I used to live in Tbilisi and there always is some new (seemingly fly-by-night, pardon the pun) airline in the Caucasus. I haven't heard of Flyone. Many people take shared taxis between the cities. Driving can be not the greatest. I'd take the overnight train if it times out with your schedule. (Also for what it's worth, when I lived in Tbilisi the flight to/from Yerevan was frequently canceled.)
The FAA ranks countries not Airlines Category 1 and 2. The International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program is where they look at the local Civil Aviation oversight and their inspectors/surveyors aviation background. Also the the condition of air traffic facilities and equipment. https://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/iasa
EASA on the other hand has lists of airlines considered at risk. The EU Air Safety Lists:The first list (Annex A) includes all airlines banned from operating in Europe. The second list...
The FAA ranks countries not Airlines Category 1 and 2. The International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) Program is where they look at the local Civil Aviation oversight and their inspectors/surveyors aviation background. Also the the condition of air traffic facilities and equipment. https://www.faa.gov/about/initiatives/iasa
EASA on the other hand has lists of airlines considered at risk. The EU Air Safety Lists:The first list (Annex A) includes all airlines banned from operating in Europe. The second list (Annex B) includes airlines that are restricted from operating under certain conditions in Europe.
https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/eu-air-safety-list_en
Hope this helps.
Sincerely
an airline safety guy.
IASA has unfortunately become a political tool to reward and threaten countries for reasons entirely unrelated to aviation. Just look at some of the names on the Category 1 list (Nigeria? really?) and you struggle to take it seriously.
I don't think I care too much about the airlines I'm flying. Being based in the US, and mostly flying to first world regions, I assume that if the airline is allowed to fly into these countries with these specific aircrafts, it's safe enough and there's nothing I could do. I would for sure be more nervous flying domestic airlines on domestic flights in 3rd world countries.
The thing that does actually worry me...
I don't think I care too much about the airlines I'm flying. Being based in the US, and mostly flying to first world regions, I assume that if the airline is allowed to fly into these countries with these specific aircrafts, it's safe enough and there's nothing I could do. I would for sure be more nervous flying domestic airlines on domestic flights in 3rd world countries.
The thing that does actually worry me most is all the near misses and runway incursions we have been made aware of lately. JFK being my home airport, I think about it every single time especially at night or when the weather is terrible, and even more just after take off or upon landing.
Have you really not flown Royal Jordanian since the flight from hell?
The man said "never again!"
I think he flew them again. I remember him reviewing their 787 Business Class, which was introduced after 2013.
I have to say that, while they're definitely carriers I would avoid, I generally don't worry about any airline I would fly on. In other words, for example, I'm not going to fly on PIA, Air India, or Spirit, I never worry if I board Iberia, TAP, or Alaska...
The one first-world airline that I will avoid on safety grounds is Air France.
As well as rather more hull loss incidents this century than I would like, even recent reports of near-misses have scary-sounding implications for safety. I accept it's probably irrational, and I probably take bigger risks elsewhere, but I would be too worried on an AF flight to enjoy it.
When was working as an aviation underwriter more than 30 years ago, we observed some patterns in incidents (not accidents) which made us feel worrying and trying to charge higher premium. For instance, if an airline had many runway incursions.
I don’t think modern ratings and rankings take incidents into consideration, only accidents. Personally, I have my own rating, based on my own perception on how critical situation s were handled. That’s obviously non representative,...
When was working as an aviation underwriter more than 30 years ago, we observed some patterns in incidents (not accidents) which made us feel worrying and trying to charge higher premium. For instance, if an airline had many runway incursions.
I don’t think modern ratings and rankings take incidents into consideration, only accidents. Personally, I have my own rating, based on my own perception on how critical situation s were handled. That’s obviously non representative, but for me it’s a sufficient basis to take decisions.
My only real concern is that planes are now packed, seating is tighter and particularly Americans are fatter and fatter (not to mention mobility challenged). We haven't had a Hudson River type of accident since then but I would question whether near or more than 200 passengers on an Airbus 321 would make it out in time. I doubt it. And I hate to be the person that can't get out because there's a line of physically challenged people clogging up the emergency exits.
Safety is impossible to accurately define or measure. You can measure compliance with safety standards, but even then an audit is simply a sampling in an environment where a single catastrophic failure can skew things incredibly (remember, Concorde went from being hailed as the safest plane in history to one of the unsafest plane in history literally with one accident).
Anyone who tries to measure and rank "safety" either doesn't know what safety involves, or...
Safety is impossible to accurately define or measure. You can measure compliance with safety standards, but even then an audit is simply a sampling in an environment where a single catastrophic failure can skew things incredibly (remember, Concorde went from being hailed as the safest plane in history to one of the unsafest plane in history literally with one accident).
Anyone who tries to measure and rank "safety" either doesn't know what safety involves, or is knowingly doing it as a publicity gimmick.
My view is that even the best airline can experience a catastrophic failure but once I became a parent, I took the time to consider which airline was most likely to tempt fate. I rely on comments passed on this blog and from pilot friends to assess my faith in a carrier rather than a list, as they appear contradictory at best.
Different 'John' here. At least ScamTrax has the (surprising) restraint not to publish airline safety standards. I mean, that would just blow their entire 'credibility' out the door..
Worry more about getting hit by a car or being struck by lightning or getting infected with a deadly virus.
Statistically, those things are higher-probability events them a fatal aircraft incident.
The problem with any flying safety stats is that there are so few fatal accidents that once one happens that airline will drop substantially on the list from near the top to near the bottom. Or to use a baseball analogy it is like looking at stats early in the season, one good game with 3 or 4 hits will greatly increase the batting average whereas late it in the season with a ton of playing time it won't move the needle much.
i have been averaging 60 segments a year for the past 52 years (My AA# starts with a 1 with no letters) and I take aviation safety seriously.
I know that statistically my chances of getting into trouble on my way to the airport are exponentially higher than in the air and my chances of getting nailed walking on a NYC street while trying to dodge the ebikes and food delivery people is even greater...
i have been averaging 60 segments a year for the past 52 years (My AA# starts with a 1 with no letters) and I take aviation safety seriously.
I know that statistically my chances of getting into trouble on my way to the airport are exponentially higher than in the air and my chances of getting nailed walking on a NYC street while trying to dodge the ebikes and food delivery people is even greater than that.
The list - the above list is insane - as are the other "safety" lists posted this week that are even nuttier
To proclaim that Delta is a "safer" airline than AA or United is wrong -Delta just had a "luckier" year -same for saying that KLM is safer than BA or for that matter AF even though they have had issues recently -
Even the best trained pilot (like a great surgeon) is going to have a bad day and that's life
How Emirates got a #1 rating totally befuddles me even though i am currently in their lounge in BKK and fly both them and QR regularly.
When it's time to have my ticket punched, it's going to be punched!!
Even with this attitude, i am careful about who i fly and have the following "rules'
• No Chinese or Russian Carriers or carriers who use Russian or Chinese iron - even before covid and especially now
• No budget carriers - especially Lion Air and similar large and smaller regional carriers in Asia, Africa and SA
• Start ups unless they are strongly backed like Vistara (with Tata and SQ behind them) and Starlux
• i try to stay away from korean Carriers but will fly them when i have to
Given the choice, i would rather go down with a belly full of caviar and a glass of champagne in my hands than......
Having Air Canada in the top 10 is laughable.
A culture of cost and corner cutting, a "hard landing" in Halifax, and then nearly causing the crash of the century in SFO.
Those incidents alone make their inclusion in the top 10 laughable
All Canadian airlines are dangerous except for WestJet and Porter.
My "Nuh-uh" 1st-tier airlines are China Airlines and Korean Air/Asiana-- as I cannot shake their horrid safety records from the '90s, when I first got into the mileage game, despite how generally well they've recovered from that time frame.
I SHOULD in all fairness avoid Air France, as what other extant Western carrier has lost 4 mainline frames in the span of 20yrs... and come shockingly close to losing nearly double that amount, in about...
My "Nuh-uh" 1st-tier airlines are China Airlines and Korean Air/Asiana-- as I cannot shake their horrid safety records from the '90s, when I first got into the mileage game, despite how generally well they've recovered from that time frame.
I SHOULD in all fairness avoid Air France, as what other extant Western carrier has lost 4 mainline frames in the span of 20yrs... and come shockingly close to losing nearly double that amount, in about the same period. :(
I'd never set foot in any Indonesian airline, but that's par for the course in much of the developing world.
I hear you. Personally, I'd never step onboard another blimp because of that Hindenburg thingy back in '37. And don't get me started on trains! That derailment which killed 102 folks in Brooklyn in 1918 STILL gives me nightmares! You and me just gotta stay put under our blankets at home. Waddya say?
@John --> First of all, the Hindenburg was not a blimp, it was a dirigible (rigid frame); secondly, it was filled with flammable hydrogen. A blimp is non-rigid, and the lighter-than-air gas used is non-flammable helium. (Sigh...)
@Jason
Sigh...there's always ONE gal who doesn't get a joke even when it bites her fat dirigible.
@Jason Lewis
You must be the life of the party? No??
We flew Garuda Indonesia between Australia and Bali many, many times in the time before Covid, and never felt unsafe. Granted those flights were operated by the A330 fleet, and perhaps the tech crews are more senior in general than the smaller aircraft, but we've never feared for our lives.
Aboard United, on the other hand, we've had a couple of scary flights, including a 747 trip from LAX to SYD that featured a potential...
We flew Garuda Indonesia between Australia and Bali many, many times in the time before Covid, and never felt unsafe. Granted those flights were operated by the A330 fleet, and perhaps the tech crews are more senior in general than the smaller aircraft, but we've never feared for our lives.
Aboard United, on the other hand, we've had a couple of scary flights, including a 747 trip from LAX to SYD that featured a potential inflight fire out over the Pacific Ocean in literally the middle of nowhere. That turned-out to be an oven element failure in one of the economy ovens, but it was 30 minutes of palm-sweating fear, sitting in the pitch dark while the crew did a cabin search with their torches, ran through the safety card with the exit-row pax, and reminded them how to open the doors. That's as close as I've ever come, and as close as I ever want to.
I flew the Garuda 330 regularly between Jakarta and Singapore. Never an issue. Now I fly it regularly between Bali and Jakarta. Same thing. I avoid most other local airlines though.
I love the snowy picture never saw it before
Yeah, I care.
As it is I have to fly many a deathtrap airline since I frequently fly to 3rd world countries and smaller airports in them.
And I do think about it when flying in and out of Sharm El Sheik which is one of my favorite places to go...just not the airport.
Could you please never run a photo of any TAAG plane again?
Thanks! :)
I swear I still get PTSD every time I think about that terrible airline, which basically means every time I'm at JNB, because it seems like there's always a TAAG 737 there these days.
You are the very definition of both a Karen AND a snowflake combined. And that's no joke.
LOL!!!!!!1!!
My most nerve-wracking flight was with Daalo Airlines from Hargeisa, Somaliland (HGA) to Djibouti City (JIB). The plane we were on was a very old Ilyushin Il-16. Ukrainian crew. It reeked of urine and livestock. About a quarter of the seat backs were broke, so anyone sitting in them just laid fully flat and stared at the ceiling. There was a crew mechanic on the flight who stood in the exit row in his greasy...
My most nerve-wracking flight was with Daalo Airlines from Hargeisa, Somaliland (HGA) to Djibouti City (JIB). The plane we were on was a very old Ilyushin Il-16. Ukrainian crew. It reeked of urine and livestock. About a quarter of the seat backs were broke, so anyone sitting in them just laid fully flat and stared at the ceiling. There was a crew mechanic on the flight who stood in the exit row in his greasy coveralls holding a massive spanner (wrench) who stared out the window at the engine FOR THE ENTIRE FLIGHT. From the moment the engine started up, through our taxiing, to take off, the entire flight, the landing, the final taxi to when it was finally shut off, he never once turned his head or took his eyes off the engines out out the window. I figured it best not to think about what he was concerned about. The windows were so filthy, it was nearly impossible to see out of them. This plane type has the engines mounted above the wing, so you can't really see much past them, but for the little bit of view I did get, it seemed like we were flying extremely low - probably never more than 3 or 4000' above the deck.
That's the one that I always think about when a fear of flying comes up. It was a doozy!
The IL-16 was a dual seat WW2 era ground attack aircraft of which only 3 protoypes were built. Somehow I doubt that Daalo was flying one of those :)
I think you mean the IL-18.
Yes, that’s what I meant. Thank you!
This post had me go look up the EU’s banned airlines list, and TAAG Angola is one of only two Angolan carriers allowed to fly in the EU. I figure the EU list is generally a good baseline of airlines one really would like to avoid. (Though some of the Russian airline currently under ban I’m assuming are for geopolitical reasons and not safety ones)
Exactly how many Angolan carriers are there? You make it sound like there's 10+.
I ran into someone in London last week and started up a conversation. She told me she was from Angola. I told her that I was an AvGeek and wanted to someday fly on TAAG . Her immediate reaction was, "WHY?!?!!!"
And where is Qantas ??
It's down under.
or EVA, or Hawaiian.... all of whom have existed for decades, and never lost a passenger.
That’s why most of these surveys are nonsense, even when it comes to carriers who have had incidents.
While I advocate for fully automated flights to completely remove human error. One redemption for having a human pilot is at least the pilot goes down with you. So you can at least have someone to blame until you meet St.Peters.
Keep 'advocating'. Because I'm 100% certain airline CEOs and Boeing are listening quite attentively to your exquisite pearls of wisdom, and are deeply impressed with your prognostications. Honestly surprised you've not been invited to work for them yet!
Eskimo, what happens when someone hacks into a fully automated aircraft system?
@jedipenguin
Similar outcome to when someone hacks into a fully piloted aircraft system.
Hi Ben - it's interesting that you say that calling Emirates 'the world's safest airline' is a real head-scratcher. I know you mentioned that you don't want to say too much, but I also know that, in a blog post maybe 5 or 6 years ago, you mentioned that you were friends with an industry insider, and they said that one of either Emirates or Etihad were really 'sloppy' with maintenance (or words to that...
Hi Ben - it's interesting that you say that calling Emirates 'the world's safest airline' is a real head-scratcher. I know you mentioned that you don't want to say too much, but I also know that, in a blog post maybe 5 or 6 years ago, you mentioned that you were friends with an industry insider, and they said that one of either Emirates or Etihad were really 'sloppy' with maintenance (or words to that effect), while the other was excellent. I know that when I read the article at the time, I assumed that Emirates was the airline that was excellent when it came to carrying out maintenance on its planes, and Etihad was the 'sloppy' one. Is this comment a tacit admission that actually Emirates was the 'sloppy' airline that you were referring to? Are Emirates actually really shoddy with maintenance, whereas Etihad are the ones who maintain their planes excellently? I'm intrigued!
Just to be clear, you didn't reveal which airline of Emirates or Etihad was the 'sloppy' one in that blog post. I'm fascinated by what you've been told that leads you to the conclusion that the statement "Emirates is the world's safest airline" is a real head-scratcher.
Gut wrenching fatigue, horribly punitive safety culture, hostile training department to name 3, not to mention they totaled a perfectly flyable 777 a few yrs back probably as a result of those and a few other factors.
I remember Ben writing about that too! I came to the same conclusion as you when I read this post.
Look up EK 521, a somewhat recent haul loss, also 2 very close calls in the 380 1 in Moscow and the other in JFK. Fatigued Crews, very hostile management and safety departments. Toxic work environment by any western standard. EK has been very very lucky.
And EK 407 from Melbourne.