A reader named John asked me a question about ZIPAIR’s availability on transpacific flights to the United States this summer, and I figured it would be an interesting topic to discuss. I’m stumped… sort of.
In this post:
ZIPAIR has availability to Japan, but not from Japan
ZIPAIR is a Japanese low cost carrier that’s a subsidiary of Japan Airlines, which operates Boeing 787s between Tokyo Narita (NRT) and several destinations in the United States and beyond. In the mainland United States, ZIPAIR flies to Los Angeles (LAX), San Francisco (SFO), and San Jose (SJC).
To summarize John’s email, he noticed that ZIPAIR is selling seats on a vast majority of flights from those three West Coast destinations to Japan. However, John observes that there’s not a single seat available for sale from Japan to those destinations for the nearly two month period from June 27 through August 20, 2023.
This isn’t just some temporary glitch, as he noticed this a few weeks ago, then again last week, and now he’s seeing this again. So it has seemingly been this way for a few weeks.
What could explain ZIPAIR’s odd availability?
I was intrigued by John’s question, as this is indeed unusual. There’s no denying that airlines sometimes face uneven demand on a particular route, depending on the day of week or time of year.
For example, you’d expect that on July 5, there’s a lot more demand for flights from Europe to the United States than the other way around. That’s because Americans want to take advantage of vacation days for trips to Europe. Of course that’s probably a moot point this summer, since all flights will just be full, period. Similarly, in winter, you expect flights to West Palm Beach to be busier on Fridays than flights from West Palm Beach (and for the invest to be true on Mondays).
It seems unlikely a glitch would last this long, since surely the airline would realize that tickets aren’t being sold. I suspect this isn’t a glitch, specifically because I am actually noticing a total of five seats for sale on those three routes over the course of nearly two months. For flights departing Japan for the United States on ZIPAIR between July 1 and August 20, I notice:
- ZIPAIR has two business class seats to Los Angeles on July 11
- ZIPAIR has two business class seats to San Francisco on July 2
- ZIPAIR has one economy class seat to San Jose on July 8
Just as a point of comparison, I see at least nine seats available for sale every single day that each of these flights operates during July and August. Below are some Google Flights screenshots (the pricing is so expensive because it’s for nine people).
As I acknowledged above, sometimes demand can be a bit uneven for certain short periods of time, but I’ve never seen anything like this over the course of two months. I mean, presumably most people traveling in either direction aren’t taking trips of nearly two months. I’m curious if anyone has any theories:
- Is there some reason I’m missing that people would book tickets to Japan on ZIPAIR, but not from Japan?
- Did a tour operator or consolidator somehow buy all the seats in one direction, but not the other?
- Is this a glitch of some sort?
My assumption in general is that ZIPAIR has more Japanese travelers than American travelers, and maybe they’re all just wanting to stay in the United States until school holidays are ending. But that doesn’t even make sense, as Japanese school holidays seem to be from July 20 through August 31, so it wouldn’t explain all the flights being sold out in early July.
For what it’s worth, I’m not noticing the same trend on other Japanese airlines, like All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines.
Bottom line
Japanese ultra low cost carrier ZIPAIR offers low cost flights between Tokyo Narita and a few gateways on the West Coast of the United States. For whatever reason, for July and August, flights are wide open to Japan, but are almost totally sold out from Japan.
I’ve never seen such uneven availability over such a long period, so I’m curious what’s going on here.
Anyone have any theories as to what’s going on here?
I would guess that the trainee of the yield department made a mistake by defining seat availability by 20 in one direction (Repeatedly) whilst in the other direction it is 200, thus still showing availability.
makes little sense that no one notices that nothing is sold in this direction for a while, though...
It's return of all the kids from 里帰り(satogaeri) to get back for school!!
They got the tickets 6 months ago. BTW they have known about ZIPAIR for over a year now.
Book you tickets for October or November and you’ll be fine.
With multiple cities in the US and daily flight, how many people are you talking about? There's luggage restrictions on ZIP Air. Its low price may only be suitable for certain type of travelers. Fully booked on multi cities for two months? Not likely.
Zip air tickets are a great price if you have definite dates well in advance and not much baggage. But if you need flexibility in your return or will shop and return with baggage it's not as good value as can be found elsewhere
I dont know but I have a return flight on Zip Air to San Francisco on July 23. Business Class. Booked a month ago and no problem. Maybe they give priority to round trip ticket purchasers
There were over 300 weekly direct flights between China and the US before the pandemic. Now 24 a week. Given the huge demand that cannot be met by direct flights, I guess many travellers chose to make connections at HND/NRT/ICN/HKG. China has a far larger population than the US so it is possible that this causes the asymmetric demand.
This may also explain the vanished award availability on JAL/ANA.
My guess: people from Japan come to the US on zip air at low cost, buy a bunch of stuff here, and plan to come back on a carrier that gives them two bags.
For Japanese it’s really expensive to buy stuffs in the US when Yen is so weak at the moment. The average Japanese citizens can’t afford to travel internationally these days, especially when media is all over about how crazy the inflation is in the US.
This actually happens often with airlines. They close the availability on ex Japan flight to the US. But they still sell tickets for flights with a stopover in Japan e.g SIN - NRT - SFO/LAX or MNL - NRT - SFO etc. If they make more money with transferring passengers this will make the most sense.
Zipair is a point-to-point airline.
I booked a seat to Narita with Zipair on May 16th for a departure date of July 7th. The confirmed airfare was $1,393.79, but about one hour later I cancelled this reservation under the 24 hour rule. When cancelled, I received a message that my refund was for only $97.00. I emailed them to report the discrepancy and the fact that I was due a full refund. Last email back was that my requested would...
I booked a seat to Narita with Zipair on May 16th for a departure date of July 7th. The confirmed airfare was $1,393.79, but about one hour later I cancelled this reservation under the 24 hour rule. When cancelled, I received a message that my refund was for only $97.00. I emailed them to report the discrepancy and the fact that I was due a full refund. Last email back was that my requested would be escalated, that was May 20th. Nothing since and no refund. Filed a charge back request through my credit card company. Shady carrier and many online refund complaints.
I've noticed this too. SFO-NRT doesn't exist past the end of October. I just bought a ticket to another destination... if they're going to pretend to be SouthWest and be too good for OTAs, they need to at least have a predictable website and booking schedule.
They don’t need to cater to arrogant westerners like you.
Is it big, though? I'm sensing "small energy" from you. =P
Those prices are for a "low cost carrier"?!?!?
Summer travel demand. Personally, I havent looked too much into ZIPs fares, but even looking over JALs service between LAX and KIX, I will see it sold out for weeks on end (not even showing up on JLs Japanese and English languages sites as an option).
It could be possible that if people are trying to shop smart, they might be booking ZIP outbound and say another (possibly cheaper) option inbound.
My observation...
Summer travel demand. Personally, I havent looked too much into ZIPs fares, but even looking over JALs service between LAX and KIX, I will see it sold out for weeks on end (not even showing up on JLs Japanese and English languages sites as an option).
It could be possible that if people are trying to shop smart, they might be booking ZIP outbound and say another (possibly cheaper) option inbound.
My observation of the ZIP travellers out of LAX is that they are Japanese leisure travellers.
Could also be that there are several US military bases located in Japan and many dependents go home (to the states) for the summer. Most of those same people would be coming back in July or August before the new school year starts.
This doesn’t seem to be the issue here, but in the past I have noticed that Zipair’s flights tend to sell out pretty often because of the remarkable consistency in their fares. There is frequently last-seat availability in lower fare buckets, so during busy periods, flights will sell out because they don’t increase fares when demand is high.
I recently embarked on a journey with ZipAir, flying lie-flat from Narita to San Jose. The booking process was not easy. Even booking months in advance, in March 2023 for a May flight, I found availability severely limited.
To set the scene, I initially traveled from Hong Kong to Narita using a one-way points seat on Cathay. This required rechecking my luggage at Narita for the ZipAir flight, but the timing worked out, as there...
I recently embarked on a journey with ZipAir, flying lie-flat from Narita to San Jose. The booking process was not easy. Even booking months in advance, in March 2023 for a May flight, I found availability severely limited.
To set the scene, I initially traveled from Hong Kong to Narita using a one-way points seat on Cathay. This required rechecking my luggage at Narita for the ZipAir flight, but the timing worked out, as there was a three-hour window between landing in Tokyo at 1:40pm and taking off for San Jose at 4:45pm.
The challenge comes with the return flights. The timing doesn't allow for same-day connections. The flights land at night in Narita and necessitate an overnight stay. Given that Narita lacks attached airport hotels, this means hauling bags onto a bus late at night, and then making a return trip to the airport within 12 hours, all while wrestling with jet lag.
In my opinion, this level of discomfort outweighs any cost savings for a Business class passenger. It might even be preferable to downgrade to premium economy and opt for a direct flight back.
Given the current schedule, ZipAir might be inadvertently deterring most of their connecting Business class passengers for return flights. This also potentially affects those who originate in the USA and connect via Tokyo to other parts of Asia. A rethink of the flight timing might be needed to ensure better passenger comfort and efficiency.
This could be irrelevant but I am speaking from own experience.
I flew to Japan on American in April and returned on Zip Air. This is because I only had enough American miles for a one way ticket. And what I noticed back then, a one way ticket from Japan to US on American was MUCH more expensive (in both miles and money equivalent) than from Japan to US. This may be due to...
This could be irrelevant but I am speaking from own experience.
I flew to Japan on American in April and returned on Zip Air. This is because I only had enough American miles for a one way ticket. And what I noticed back then, a one way ticket from Japan to US on American was MUCH more expensive (in both miles and money equivalent) than from Japan to US. This may be due to Narita airport fees. But when it came to Zip Air pricing it was roughly the same each way. The for me the choice was clear: fly to Japan with American and return with Zip Air. This could very well be the case for other travelers
I found a Japanese news article and this is actually reflecting the demand - even ZIPAir managements are surprised by the demand originating Japan and they are planning to increase flights to SFO and SJC to daily as soon as possible, according to that article. However, their is no clue why the demand is so uneven as those Japan-originated travelers must return to Japan anyway and Japanese typically take vacation up to one week so...
I found a Japanese news article and this is actually reflecting the demand - even ZIPAir managements are surprised by the demand originating Japan and they are planning to increase flights to SFO and SJC to daily as soon as possible, according to that article. However, their is no clue why the demand is so uneven as those Japan-originated travelers must return to Japan anyway and Japanese typically take vacation up to one week so return flight should show strong demand too…
Just wondering! Could there be a freight/weight concern that is more profitable?
ZIP Air is not selling seats because they are sold out.
Japanese who live in the U.S. usually fly ANA or JAL to return home for a month or two from mid-May, when American schools are on summer break, because this year fuel surcharges were high and demand for flights to Japan was high (there are few direct flights from the U.S. to China) and ticket prices did not go down, Many people returned...
ZIP Air is not selling seats because they are sold out.
Japanese who live in the U.S. usually fly ANA or JAL to return home for a month or two from mid-May, when American schools are on summer break, because this year fuel surcharges were high and demand for flights to Japan was high (there are few direct flights from the U.S. to China) and ticket prices did not go down, Many people returned to their hometowns on ZIP Air, which has cheaper airfare for those under 6 years old and does not charge fuel surcharges. July and August seem to be sold out as people return to the U.S. after spending their summer vacation in Japan.
From the prices displayed, ZIPAIR may be a Ultra-Low-Cost carrier but it is not a Ultra-Low-Price airline. Regardless of all the flights "being full" this summer, I still am not paying more than a total of $ 2,200 RT in traditional Business (NOT in glorified P.E.) to and from Europe in July/August, using Full Service carriers. Does it require some creativity and time? Yes. Is it impossible? Hell No... (and by the way, nothing illegal or even questionable).
Learn to read
> Below are some Google Flights screenshots (the pricing is so expensive because it’s for nine people).
Worthwhile to note that they do not let you book a business class seat for someone under age 7.
I will say I used Zip Air in May for my flight home because other airlines had more expensive one ways from Japan to us than US to Japan that was after I was able to snag $350 one way with Delta LAX to Japan. I wonder if too many have done the same
Also, my return flight in December was about 50% full. A lot of people helped themselves to lie-flat seats in economy.
In early May, my return flight was about 75% full in economy and half full in business. My flight to Japan in April was packed.
I saw the same phenomenon in December and April. My flights to Japan from SFO were more full than the return flight. Maybe more Americans are going to Japan first and then continue onward to another Asian destination. On the way back, they don't have to go through Japan.
On another note, the dollar is really expensive to the Japanese. They can't afford to come to the US.
Sporadic close-in inventory is more than likely a travel agency returning unsold seats.
This looks to me like a potential tour package sold from Japan that includes west coast and Hawaii with a return on Zipair HNL-NRT.
i have no idea. but a common itinerary for asia involves stopping first in japan, then flying to china for <= 144 hours (visa free policy) and finally going to hong kong or singapore from which there are many flights back to the usa
Zip Air was sold out solid late May through July 4th from US gateways to Japan and those same CA based folks on summer vacation are all returning mid July through Aug 20th. Hence the uneven availability.
The same happened mid/late March outbound US-Tokyo for cherry blossom and early-late April return to US. Same thing for Christmas break where more US outbound demand than return.
The big US careers just manage inventory better so won't tell out so early.
@ Edward -- Interesting, but Americans are also notorious for taking among the shortest vacations of anyone in the world. They'll go to the other side of the globe for a week. Where are these Americans who are traveling for over a month?!
And if that is the explanation, then you're right, the airline is very, very bad at inventory and revenue management.
The Zip Air crowd is majority Asian Americans, not Japanese, when I flew them for cherry blossom.
For the summer, many of my CA based tech Asian coworkers would drop the kids off in Asia for 2 months. Typically dad flies with kids outbound and return alone 3 weeks later. Then mom flies alone outbound the week dad returns home to US. Three weeks later, the mom returns with the kids.
This year flights to japan are crazy. between all the japanese flocking back like seagulls to their homeland from usa, along with all the foreign tourists wanting to go to japan for vacation finally after 3 years. its nuts, was difficult to even get 2 economy tickets on points with jal. my wife is gone for 2 months and i will join them in japan in 3 weeks for a 2 week vacation myself. (of...
This year flights to japan are crazy. between all the japanese flocking back like seagulls to their homeland from usa, along with all the foreign tourists wanting to go to japan for vacation finally after 3 years. its nuts, was difficult to even get 2 economy tickets on points with jal. my wife is gone for 2 months and i will join them in japan in 3 weeks for a 2 week vacation myself. (of course im going in first class because they left me here for a month n half without them. )
I thought that Zipair had that big fare sale in early April , and all of the seats were purchased. I bought RT SFO-NRT in August during that sale.
Ben, think about it a bit. These American (Japanese-American) travelers are mostly school children that have returned to visit family in Japan starting in April and through the summer and hold out hanging with the grandparents till the last minute before they return to go back to school.
They book solid the USA to Japan April-June and return is July-August.
Is all about the kids getting back to see grandparents, especially after a pandemic.