The United States is planning on banning Chinese airlines from using Russian airspace on all flights to and from the United States, though as you might expect, there’s some pushback…
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US DOT wants to add airspace restrictions on Chinese airlines
Since early 2022, Russian airspace has been closed to aircraft registered in the United States, and vice versa. This is of course related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has had much wider implications, in terms of sanctions. These airspace closures have posed a challenge for many airlines, given the size of Russia, and the importance of its airspace for reaching some points in Asia.
In many cases, airlines from countries aligned with Russia have had a very nice competitive advantage, as they’ve been able to use Russian airspace on flights to the United States, Europe, etc., while other airlines haven’t been able to.
That’s something that the United States Department of Transportation (DOT) is looking to change, though. The DOT has proposed a new condition on the foreign air carrier permits held by the six Chinese airlines that fly to the United States, prohibiting them from using Russian airspace on flights to and from the United States.
The DOT is proposing that this take effect 30 days after the issuance of a final order in this matter. The DOT gave parties two business days to file comments on the tentative decision (not exactly a long commenting period!).
The DOT justifies this by referencing the air services agreement that exists between the United States and China. Article 2(4) of the agreement explicitly stipulates that “the operation of the agreed services by the designated airline(s) on routes over third countries shall be conducted on routes available to the airlines of both Parties, unless otherwise agreed.” So of course the United States is within its rights to add these restrictions.
As you’d expect, Chinese airlines have come out against these changes, arguing that the proposed ban would “harm the public interest” and “inconvenience travelers” from both China and the United States. The airlines also argue that the added flight time would result in higher costs and more expensive tickets, increasing the burden on all travelers.
My take on this potential Russia airspace ban on US flights
I think the DOT’s proposal is fair enough, and that it wouldn’t be unreasonable for this to be implemented:
- I can understand the concept of how unfair the current policy is, and how US airlines are at a disadvantage by not being able to use Russian airspace
- Russia has very high overflight costs, so by using Russia airspace, it’s helping to fund Russia’s attack on Ukraine
- There’s the general question of potential safety issues if a flight were to divert to Russia (then again, it has happened multiple times on Air India, without incident)
At the same time, this isn’t something I’m overly enthusiastic about:
- This seems more about a trade war with China than about punishing Russia, because notice how this order is only about airlines in mainland China, and not about Air India, Cathay Pacific, etc.
- The practical implications here would actually be fairly limited, given that some routes from Chinese airlines are either already banned from using Russian airspace, or choose not to use it
- I don’t love the whole “airlines need to have a level playing field” concept, because that’s never going to be the case; it’s also not “fair” how US airlines can essentially operate their flights at a loss while still making money, thanks to their lucrative credit card agreements, which airlines in no other countries have access to in the same way
So yeah, I’m not opposed to this, and I’d be more in favor of this if it were a blanket ban, rather than only targeted at Chinese airlines (which makes it more about China than Russia). However, I have a hard time getting too enthusiastic about a “yay, an extra three hours of flying just to punish China” policy.
Bottom line
The United States plans to add new restrictions on Chinese airlines, whereby they can no longer use Russian airspace for any flights to or from the United States. I have to imagine that this will be implemented, and is part of the overall escalating tensions between the United States and China.
The policy change is reasonable, in line with the air services agreement between the two countries. However, it definitely seems to be more about punishing China than about punishing Russia, given the airlines for which these restrictions are being proposed.
What do you make of new restrictions on Chinese airlines using Russian airspace?
United just put a request to include Cathay Pacific!
Ben - are you really suggesting that US airline are unfairly advantaged by their credit card programs? Really? First, any airline can develop and grow a co-brand program - yes, interchange rates are capped in many parts of the world but there are certainly opportunities for non-US carriers to lean in.
But more importantly, what about the host of subsidies that non-US carriers receive - everything from government bailouts (TP, AZ to name just...
Ben - are you really suggesting that US airline are unfairly advantaged by their credit card programs? Really? First, any airline can develop and grow a co-brand program - yes, interchange rates are capped in many parts of the world but there are certainly opportunities for non-US carriers to lean in.
But more importantly, what about the host of subsidies that non-US carriers receive - everything from government bailouts (TP, AZ to name just a few) to the subsidies and other "incentives" offered to the Gulf carriers (yeah, I know they are "profitable" but we all know there is funny business going on there)
Lastly, what about labor costs? Should those be taken into account as well? Obviously, the US labor costs are among the highest in the world. Should we include those when deciding if Russian overflights are "fair" as you suggest with credit card revenues?
Using aviation as a political pawn often results in unintended consequences. The sanctions on civilian aviation technology exports to Russia were ill advised to begin with and have put safety at risk. Expanding them to overflight by third party countries is escalating the situation. Russia and China are not going away, so isolating them simply raises the risk of a new multipolar world order developing - which is the opposite of the stated intention.
Hi Sean, it's been a little while, but it is good to see you, again. I respect your work as COO of an airline in Africa.
That said, on geopolitics, I must respectfully disagree, because Putin's illegal war of aggression (in violation of international law, generally, and also the Budapest Memorandum, specifically) also 'put safety at risk.'
Even more concerning is Russia and its apparent allies (China, Iran, North Korea, and any third...
Hi Sean, it's been a little while, but it is good to see you, again. I respect your work as COO of an airline in Africa.
That said, on geopolitics, I must respectfully disagree, because Putin's illegal war of aggression (in violation of international law, generally, and also the Budapest Memorandum, specifically) also 'put safety at risk.'
Even more concerning is Russia and its apparent allies (China, Iran, North Korea, and any third parties that facilitate it) use of sanctioned components from the West to develop their attack drones, which are often used against civilian targets (war crimes).
I know, this is all a bit messy, and far more complicated than banning flight routes. Clearly, most of us would prefer peace, prosperity, and the safe, free movement of people and commerce.
For once, I totally agree with you. Isolate Russia until they stop.
In fact, any airline that still flies to Russia should be sanctioned.
Hi Ben, it's not just "airlines from countries aligned with Russia", but airlines from countries not in a trade war with Russia (that includes Turkey, India, UAE, etc.)
Then regarding your take on "it helps funding Russia's war to Ukraine". True, but if you go this route, flying Qatar airways helps funding Hamas' war to Israel (just one example amongst many). Last, I don't understand the safety issue, Russia isn't an unsafe country to...
Hi Ben, it's not just "airlines from countries aligned with Russia", but airlines from countries not in a trade war with Russia (that includes Turkey, India, UAE, etc.)
Then regarding your take on "it helps funding Russia's war to Ukraine". True, but if you go this route, flying Qatar airways helps funding Hamas' war to Israel (just one example amongst many). Last, I don't understand the safety issue, Russia isn't an unsafe country to overfly (assuming you're not overflying regions at war) and for what it's worth European airlines overfly Afghanistan on Europe-Asia routes...
Well i think the difference is Afghanistan does not have a capable anti air network that can shoot down civilian aircrafts like Russia did twice or have the motivation to force western jets to land with jets escorting and kidnap certain pax or even the entire aircraft.
Eve is correct; Afghanistan hardly has those capabilities today (however, they could be armed by our foes to do so... which is concerning.)
The Russian Federation, and the USSR before it, has a history of shooting down commercial aircraft, and murdering innocent civilians. Recall, Korean Air Lines Flight 007 (1983), Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (2014), and Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 (2024). To be fair, the only example of the USA doing this, allegedly by...
Eve is correct; Afghanistan hardly has those capabilities today (however, they could be armed by our foes to do so... which is concerning.)
The Russian Federation, and the USSR before it, has a history of shooting down commercial aircraft, and murdering innocent civilians. Recall, Korean Air Lines Flight 007 (1983), Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (2014), and Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 (2024). To be fair, the only example of the USA doing this, allegedly by accident, Iran Air Flight 655 (1988). Still, to say, 'both sides' here, is not fair, because Putin's Russia is doing this more recently, more regularly. Not to mention, executing its own people (like Prigozhin) via shooting them down, see 2023 Wagner Group plane crash.
So, the concern here is valid.
Embargoes do not help anybody.Just look at the amount of airlines not allowed or choosing not to use Russian airspace increasing flying time and passing fuel costs on to the flying public.It has made no difference to the war the Russians are waging against Ukraine and about time somebody had a rethink.Russian airlines can still fly to most of the world except europe so are not bothered.
Embargoes and sanctions done with intent works, embargoes and sanctions done with your fingers crossed behind your back, which is practicality what has been the case the majority of the time against Russia, off course does not work, for example, proposing ban on purchase of Russian gas and oil, yet still ordering record amount of them order before the ban is implemented and also giving countries like Slovakia and Hungary exceptions
A step in the right direction. Toying with China or punishing Putin, fair is fair.
What is terrifying is that now the President could announce that a Chinese airliner was blown out of the sky because it contained illegal drugs being smuggled in to the USA by foreigners intent on criminal activities... And that would enforce the restriction.
Destroyed and murdered with no more proof than his word.
We have become a rogue nation that continues to commit piracy at sea in international waters. Adding the same in the...
What is terrifying is that now the President could announce that a Chinese airliner was blown out of the sky because it contained illegal drugs being smuggled in to the USA by foreigners intent on criminal activities... And that would enforce the restriction.
Destroyed and murdered with no more proof than his word.
We have become a rogue nation that continues to commit piracy at sea in international waters. Adding the same in the air would be an easy jump for a lawless administration.
Could really mess up all those winter travel plans.
Uh oh, here comes MAGA to defend Russia and attack Ukraine…