A couple of days ago, I wrote about how China issued a travel warning for Japan, advising citizens against traveling to the country. The government of China argued that Japan was “unstable, with a high number of criminal incidents targeting Chinese citizens,” and the “security environment” has “continued to deteriorate.”
In reality, it seemed pretty clear that this was simply part of a diplomatic spat, with Japan’s new Prime Minister showing support for Taiwan, in the event that China tries to invade. I was curious to what extent these travel warnings would actually impact demand, and now we have our answer…
32% of tickets to Japan canceled amid diplomatic issues
Following China’s recent travel warning, several Chinese airlines issued flight waivers for Japan, allowing customers to rebook their tickets at no cost.
So, just how many people are actually canceling their flights? According to the South China Morning Post, Chinese airlines have seen roughly 491,000 flight cancelations to Japan since Saturday, representing around 32% of tickets that have been booked for travel over that waiver period. This is the highest number of cancelations that have been seen in the market since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
As another interesting figure, on Sunday, 27 times more people canceled flights between China and Japan than booked tickets.
China is among the largest markets for visiting Japan, with over seven million visitors from mainland China having visited Japan in the first nine months of the year. And it’s also a very fast growing market, since that number is over 40% higher than the number of visitors during that same period the year prior.
It’s going to be interesting to see how long this spat lasts
When I wrote about China’s travel warning against Japan, some people took issue with what I wrote. While I’ll gladly admit when I’m wrong, as of now, I stand by what I said.
Japan is one of the safest places in the world you can travel to, so to suggest that travelers from China face a high number of criminal incidents in Japan compared to just about anywhere else in the world is, to my knowledge, baseless.
For example, some people pointed out how in June, a Chinese national was stabbed in the chest multiple times on the streets of Kyoto (fortunately with non-life threatening injuries). The issue with that narrative is that the person who has been charged with that crime is a Chinese national who had overstayed his visa, and the two had reportedly gotten into an argument.
I’ll gladly update my stance if someone can show me these alleged widespread crimes that I’m missing, but it seems pretty clear to me what the motive here is.
Obviously China isn’t happy about Japan’s lack of support for the “reunification” of Taiwan, and this is about diplomatic concerns rather than actual safety concerns. Could there be some bad blood between Chinese and Japanese nationals? Sure. But does it seem likely that Chinese nationals will be attacked unprovoked by Japanese nationals? I think that’s highly unlikely…
I’m curious to see how this all plays out. Japan is of course one of the hottest tourist destinations in the world, and has been suffering from over tourism. So honestly, if this means there will be a little less demand for travel to Japan, maybe that’s not so bad for the rest of us.
Bottom line
China issued a travel warning for Japan, claiming there are a high number of criminal incidents targeting Chinese nationals. In reality, it seems pretty clear that this warning is politically motivated, given Japan’s government showing support for Taiwan.
I wasn’t sure to what extent this would impact travel demand, but travelers do seem to be taking note. Chinese airlines have reportedly seen 32% of tickets canceled, with very few new tickets still being booked. While tourism makes up a big part of Japan’s economy nowadays, fortunately the visitor profile is quite diversified, with demand from all over the world.
How long do you think we’re going to see this depressed travel demand between China and Japan?
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