At least in the airline industry in the United States, there’s no denying that the demand for premium cabin travel isn’t just a fad, but instead, is a more structural change to consumer demand. People value nice travel experiences more than in the past, and a large percentage of the profits in the industry coming from loyalty programs also plays into that.
What’s interesting is that despite this trend, we haven’t actually seen the size of domestic first class cabins increase materially over the years. Could that finally change? It seems likely…
In this post:
Delta may increase the size of first class cabins
During the Delta Q2 2025 earnings call, JP Morgan Analyst Jamie Baker asked about how we’re continuing to see revenue growth for premium cabin travel, while we see decline in economy demand, and how that could play out in the long term:
“So the spread between premium growth and main cabin contraction widened to 10 points in the second quarter. The spread has been accelerating for the past several quarters, but it seems that this is a little bit more about main cabin weakness than just premium resilience. So can I ask if premium trends, whether you define that by revenue or maybe, I don’t know, paid load factor, did it match your expectations in the second quarter? And is it safe to assume, given your earlier commentary that we see at least another quarter of expansion?”
Delta President Glen Hauenstein responded with the following:
“I think there’s nothing in any of the forward bookings that would have us indicate that there’s a diminishing demand for premium cabins or services. And so as we continue to look — reevaluate even now the LOPA is on the airplanes and put more and more premium, we are able to do two things. One is sell more of it, and two is accommodate more of our heaviest frequent flyers with upgrades, which is something we want to continue to do to provide additional value to them. So we’re very excited about where we sit today, and we’re very excited about the possibilities moving forward.”
For those not familiar, LOPA stands for “layout of passenger accommodations,” referring to the layout of an aircraft. In other words, Delta is considering changing the layout of some of its aircraft, to increase the number of premium seats.
This should be a change across the industry
The “big three” US airlines should introduce materially bigger first class cabins on domestic flights, at least on a significant percentage of aircraft. It’s something I’ve believed and argued for a long time, and I don’t understand why it hasn’t happened.
The reality is that airlines have gotten much better at monetizing their premium cabins. Over the course of a little over a decade, Delta has gone from selling 11% of its first class seats, to selling 88% of its first class seats. We’ve largely seen airlines introduce much bigger premium cabins on long haul flights, but the most part, domestic first class cabins aren’t any bigger than they were 15 years ago.
Sure, we can point to some airlines adding a row of first class seats here or there, but the trend overall hasn’t been in the direction of having a higher percentage of seats be first class, when you compare current fleets to MD-80/90 and 757 fleets back in the day.
That doesn’t make sense to me, because demand is much higher, the economics of having bigger first class cabins has improved, and the ability to monetize the cabin is also better than before:
- We’ve seen airlines increasingly upgauge to larger fuel efficient aircraft (like the A321neo), but actually filling every seat in some markets is challenging, which is why the focus should be on increasing average fares
- Additional first class seats would obviously come at the expense of economy seats; however, very few flights are at 100% of capacity (at least before standby passengers are accommodated), and if economy passengers are being displaced, you’d view the opportunity cost in terms of the cheapest basic economy tickets that are booked
- If airlines want their loyalty programs to continue to be lucrative, there needs to be some number of upgrades that are awarded, or there’s the risk of killing the golden goose
- With major US carriers already selling almost 90% of their first class seats, there’s going to be a real issue as we continue to see airlines introduce larger premium cabins on long haul flights, in terms of accommodating connecting passengers
- Domestic first class isn’t like Air France La Premiere; having various pathways to filling seats doesn’t do much to cannibalize demand or dilute revenue potential
So I’m curious to see how this plays. Obviously demand isn’t equal in all markets, but at a minimum, you’d think we’d see an increasingly large subfleet of planes with significantly larger first class cabins. After all, there are lots of markets that don’t necessarily require flat beds, but where there’s still a lot of demand for premium seats.
Heck, as JetBlue continues to be struggle with profitability, I think the airline should go all-in in this direction. Delta is reportedly planning on introducing first class in 2026, though I think the airline should go to the extreme, and introduce huge first class cabins, given its bases in New York (JFK) and Boston (BOS).
Bottom line
With continued strong premium demand and weaker economy demand, Delta appears to be considering changing the layout of its aircraft, and introducing more first class seats. Despite the percentage of first class seats being sold increasing exponentially over the years, we haven’t seen any widespread changes to the size of first class cabins on domestic flights.
I think it’s only a matter of time until this becomes an industry trend, especially with premium cabins on long haul flights becoming increasingly bigger.
Do you think we’ll see a trend of bigger first class cabins on domestic flights?
Will you discuss the new Delta SLC-LIM winter seasonal route? Seems like a really interesting one that not many were expecting.
To be far . .AA lead the way with Transcon A321 planes in 2014. DL is better the economy doesn't go south.
and Midwest Airlines had one of the industry's more notable large premium cabin strategies - well before the AA A321T
Midwest was awesome !
United actually led the way with its three class PS 757s.
Delta should serve more than snacks on some flights shorter than 900 miles. I used to get a hot sandwich on LGA to ATL
United for international has added a huge amount of Business class seats look at the 767s and the new 787-9 are going to have a crazy # of lay flats.
Even the upcoming A321xlr will have lots of Lay flats.
Obviously more domestic lay flats from NY will be nice and perhaps at the 787 are delivered United can put the 767 on domestic routes. Fingers crossed.
Ben, so you say "the focus should be on increasing average fares", wow, really? You think that should be the focus? Not improving passenger comfort, safety, etc.?
Correct. The purpose of a large corporation is to make money. Everything it does serves that purpose.
Is anything the FC footprint has shrunk in the last 10-15 years. A decade + ago, the backbone of DL domestic fleet was the 757 with 24-26 FC seats. Today the only narrowbody AC with more than 20 FC seats is the 753.
Nice to have the seat support obstruct leg room in first class. Also, seats are not much wider with all that shelf space between seats. Not sure what is being gained.
The only reason I book first class on domestic flights is so I don't get gate checked. If I could reserve bin space and pay a fee I'd not do it. Which means they'll likely never allow me to reserve bin space.
Oh so you're rich rich.
Haha first of all respect for the meek mill / going bad reference. But no. Solidly middle class for my city. Usual move is book main, auto upgrade to comfort+, then upgrade to first in the window if available. Sometimes pay cash for that upgrade if I really, really want it for that trip (2hrs or more).
Live humbly at home, keep day to day living expenses light. Just loathe the little indignities of flying...
Haha first of all respect for the meek mill / going bad reference. But no. Solidly middle class for my city. Usual move is book main, auto upgrade to comfort+, then upgrade to first in the window if available. Sometimes pay cash for that upgrade if I really, really want it for that trip (2hrs or more).
Live humbly at home, keep day to day living expenses light. Just loathe the little indignities of flying cattle car and try not to.
Just starting to see the deck stacked against us more and more - starting to feel like a casino in the air. Tired of the foolishness
It's evening in India and still no preliminary crash report. I'm starting to think pilot suicide is the reason
it is very funny they have tricked most of their regular fliers into using the word "upgrade" to describe complementary comfort+ seating. Like United and AA speak about it more along the lines of free seating into economy plus with status (which all 3 airlines have equally), but Delta literally uses the word "upgrade". its a small difference that has obviously fooled many people with the whole premium schtick.
Agreed. The real "upgrade" is free booze in those seats but even that's marginal with as few cabin service trips the flight attendants make these days.
Premium = Comfort+ pseudocabin
Upgrade = to said pseudocabin
I don’t think this means more first class. High row numbers would be downgraded frequently with swaps.
Funny, I find the service & amenities in " pseudo class " a " premium ' experience !
... lol.
1) As a few people have pointed out - Delta upgrades people into Comfort +. I would love to see Delta increase actual domestic First Class cabins meaningfully - however, in addition to issues around ovens and meals, increasing F cabins would lead to plans seeing less overall capacity. Will Delta really do that - uncertain.
2) I would love to see one of the major carriers innovate by actually going against the recent...
1) As a few people have pointed out - Delta upgrades people into Comfort +. I would love to see Delta increase actual domestic First Class cabins meaningfully - however, in addition to issues around ovens and meals, increasing F cabins would lead to plans seeing less overall capacity. Will Delta really do that - uncertain.
2) I would love to see one of the major carriers innovate by actually going against the recent trend and making wider seats - whether that is in the form of more F cabins (2+2), some kind of 2+3 configuration instead of 3+3 on narrow bodies, etc.
3) Such a change could actually lead to low cost carriers seeing a bit of a revival as they can stay 3+3 and better compete on price. The major carriers could attempt to charge more for a better experience. Better segmentation all around, healthier margins for everyone.
@Ben
"Delta is reportedly planning on introducing first class in 2026,"
Probably want to change that to JETBLUE.
At first, I read it as Delta is looking to add international First class, lol.
Ben, you make a good point about today's layouts vs the past. 20-30 years ago, we saw a lot more 757s flying domestic routes, with a typical layout of 24 F seats, and of course, very few of those were actually sold. Now the largest domestic narrow bodies at AA, UA and DL have at most 20 F.
To be fair, United led the way with their 76L configuration.
The A220s are a great opportunity to add premium seats as you give up only 1 seat per row going from 2x3 to 2x2. The airlines are probably balancing out row spacing and exit rows to determine how many premium seats to add.
Overall - airlines have gotten better at monetizing the extra space and it makes more sense to add more seats. It doesn't need to be every aircraft - you can have a...
The A220s are a great opportunity to add premium seats as you give up only 1 seat per row going from 2x3 to 2x2. The airlines are probably balancing out row spacing and exit rows to determine how many premium seats to add.
Overall - airlines have gotten better at monetizing the extra space and it makes more sense to add more seats. It doesn't need to be every aircraft - you can have a high-F and low-F versions of aircraft and dedicate some to one market versus another.
I agree the A220 has the most potential for a very good cabin layout for passengers.
The curse of the 737's and A320's is the horrendous 3x3 layout in economy. (also add in the 787 with 3x3x3 in economy) The A220, 2x3, gives a great option for couples that don't want a 3rd party sitting next to them. First class is also good, with 1-2 seating, in that it works for couples and solo business...
I agree the A220 has the most potential for a very good cabin layout for passengers.
The curse of the 737's and A320's is the horrendous 3x3 layout in economy. (also add in the 787 with 3x3x3 in economy) The A220, 2x3, gives a great option for couples that don't want a 3rd party sitting next to them. First class is also good, with 1-2 seating, in that it works for couples and solo business people who would just as soon sit alone. You could add in some business class lay-flats too, but I don't think they are needed for most US domestic daytime routes. Longer haul international and maybe a few coast to coast red eye's would make good use of lay flats seats though.
If Boeing ever gets around to it's clean sheet 737 redesign, I would really like to see the economy cabin be capable of a 2x3x2 arrangement, or even a 1x3x2 arrangement if you can make the aisle and overhead bin access work. I guess this would basically be a newer design of the 767, but they were great planes to fly in any cabin. Anything but a repeat of 3x3 in economy.
keep in mind that DL should have had the MAX 10 arriving this year (but won't) and DL already said that the MAX 10 will only have about 3 more seats than the 737-900ER because of a much larger Comfort Plus cabin.
DL considers Comfort Plus as part of its premium/non-economy cabin definition.
DL could further add more first class seats but the premium group includes everything except standard economy.
and the A350-1000 is...
keep in mind that DL should have had the MAX 10 arriving this year (but won't) and DL already said that the MAX 10 will only have about 3 more seats than the 737-900ER because of a much larger Comfort Plus cabin.
DL considers Comfort Plus as part of its premium/non-economy cabin definition.
DL could further add more first class seats but the premium group includes everything except standard economy.
and the A350-1000 is very likely to be have one of DL's most premium configurations based on the percentage of seats. the 275 seat 359 is already well above average premium configuration compared to other 359 operators.
I doubt they will fit more than 44/46 seats in their A350-1000
It won't be anything crazy like AA B787-9p or B773 or jawbreaking like BA B773, ANA B773, JAL A35K, United B773 or B789, AF B773.
You may be misinterpreting this a tad bit, what I have heard Is that Delta does plan on increasing Comfort+ cabins on their 739s, which I wanna assume is what they mean by adding more premium seats? Either way I would love to see more first class seats!
Agreed with the misinterpretation. Delta considers Comfort+ to be premium, I think thats what they mean. There are logistical challenges with adding more first class seats (e.g., oven space for additional meals).
Think you have a typo at the end saying Delta is introducing first class, then linking to a JetBlue article.
You write: Delta is reportedly planning on introducing first class in 2026, though I think the airline should go to the extreme, and introduce huge first class cabins, given its bases in New York (JFK) and Boston (BOS).
I think Delta already has First Class.
That's right, Jason. You spotted a typo in Lucky's article. He meant JetBlue not Delta (the link goes to an article about JetBlue).
He usually appreciates it when people points out these issues, as he likes accuracy.
Gotta say, for domestic aircraft a larger first class cabin holds 0 value for me. I book economy and am fine flying economy, occasionally I get upgraded to the extra legroom section, but otherwise sitting in an econ seat for 2-5 hours is a nonissue. It's the international market where I desperately want to see more seats inbetween F/J and economy/extra legroom economy. True PE products make up such a small portion of a given...
Gotta say, for domestic aircraft a larger first class cabin holds 0 value for me. I book economy and am fine flying economy, occasionally I get upgraded to the extra legroom section, but otherwise sitting in an econ seat for 2-5 hours is a nonissue. It's the international market where I desperately want to see more seats inbetween F/J and economy/extra legroom economy. True PE products make up such a small portion of a given widebody's seat count, which drives me nuts considering it's the exact compromise between a cramped and crowded economy row and a private lie-flat seat.