It looks like Cathay Pacific is going on another aircraft shopping spree, as the oneworld carrier plans for its long term future.
In this post:
Cathay Pacific considers Airbus A350, Boeing 787
Danny Lee at Bloomberg reports on how Cathay Pacific has submitted a request for proposal (RFP) with Airbus and Boeing, as it looks to place a multi-billion dollar aircraft order. Specifically, the Hong Kong-based airline is looking for aircraft that would be delivered in the 2030s, so this is a long term aircraft order.
Cathay Pacific is reportedly interested in either picking up more Airbus A350s, ordering Boeing 787s for the first time, or even adding to its Boeing 777 order book, though that jet is yet to be certified. Both Airbus and Boeing have most of their delivery slots taken up through the end of this decade, so it’s important for Cathay Pacific to place an order ASAP.
It’s not known exactly how many jets Cathay Pacific is looking to order. It’s probably not a huge number of firm orders (I mean, at least compared to carriers like Emirates or Riyadh Air), but there may also be a fair number of options.
While Cathay Pacific had a really tough time at the start of the pandemic, the situation has improved considerably, and the company now has excellent financial performance again. Furthermore, with Hong Kong’s three runway system operational, there’s lots of room to grow.
What wide body jet makes sense for Cathay Pacific?
For some context on Cathay Pacific’s fleet, the airline currently has the following jets:
- 16 Airbus A321neos, used for regional routes
- 43 Airbus A330-300s, used primarily for regional routes, but also for some medium haul flights
- 52 Boeing 777s, most of which are long haul 777-300ERs, but there are also some regional 777-300s
- 48 Airbus A350s, split between the A350-900 and A350-1000 variant
Beyond that, Cathay Pacific also has the following aircraft on order:
- 24 Airbus A321neos, which will be used to expand regional capacity, and to introduce higher frequency service
- 30 Airbus A330-900neos, which will be used to replace the older A330-300s, and to also grow capacity in high demand regional markets
- 21 Boeing 777-9s on order, which will eventually be used as the carrier’s new flagship aircraft, replacing older 777s; these planes will feature a new first class and new business class product
So prior to this upcoming order, it seems like Cathay Pacific’s long term plan is to primarily fly A321neos, A330-900neos, A350s (-900s and -1000s), and 777-9s.
How do I see this playing out? Here are a few thoughts:
- In terms of fleet commonality, it would of course make sense to order more Airbus A350s and/or Boeing 777Xs, so that not yet another aircraft type is added to the fleet
- In terms of regional capacity, it seems like the plan is for the 40 A321neos and 30 A330-900neos to essentially replace the 43 A330-300s and 16 777-300s; however, there’s still a significant capacity gap there, especially with some of the A321neos going to HK Express
- Assuming Cathay Pacific has faith in the 777X eventually flying, it sure seems like the airline could use more than 21 of those aircraft, since that plane could easily be used to most major long haul gateways
- The A350 is a phenomenal plane, so picking up more of those seems like a no-brainer
So we’ll see how this plays out. The 787 doesn’t make much sense to me at all, unless Boeing offers Cathay Pacific a killer deal. Then again, I’m not sure Boeing would even do that, since there’s plenty of demand for the 787, and it’s the 777X that’s not selling as well.
Bottom line
Cathay Pacific has approached both Airbus and Boeing, as the airline hopes to place another wide body aircraft order, with deliveries in the 2030s. Cathay Pacific is reportedly deciding between the A350, 787, and 777X.
There are a lot of factors that impact which planes airlines ultimately end up ordering, though logically speaking, the complexity of adding the 787 to the fleet doesn’t make much sense to me (which isn’t to say it won’t happen, as plenty of airlines do just that). Meanwhile I think ordering more 777Xs would be logical, especially as Hong Kong’s capacity keeps increasing. Furthermore, more A350s never hurt anyone, right? 😉
What do you expect to see from Cathay Pacific’s upcoming aircraft order?
"Cathay considers Airbus or Boeing for widebody"
Great headline there. Really going out on limb. Folks at COMAC and United Aircraft Corporation must be inconsolable at the loss of the possible Cathay order.
The 777 will probably not get certified before 2030 (if ever)... they might as well go with the A350....since they are working well for them.
A heavily tweaked 35-year base design of the 777 has already taken 6 years to certify, and it's still struggling. I've lost track of the issues, but I was done at door blow out and wing snap. The wing threshold was beyond their requirement, true, but they still set a...
The 777 will probably not get certified before 2030 (if ever)... they might as well go with the A350....since they are working well for them.
A heavily tweaked 35-year base design of the 777 has already taken 6 years to certify, and it's still struggling. I've lost track of the issues, but I was done at door blow out and wing snap. The wing threshold was beyond their requirement, true, but they still set a benchmark that the wing failed to reach....so I'm not thrilled to ride on this plane.
Is there a reason for its failure to certify (beyond greed)? Oh yes, absolutely. Is it worth discussing here? No, sorry. Historically I have loved Boeing planes (minus 737s) so this is really sad to see.
"The wing threshold was beyond their requirement, true, but they still set a benchmark that the wing failed to reach....so I'm not thrilled to ride on this plane."
Going to be a sad day for you, when you find out how many other currently-operating aircraft models/derivatives that that same description applies to.
That may well be the case, but the bottom line is that the 350 already has hundreds of airframes in commercial service making good money for their operators and a very good impression on paying customers. Cathay has a swarm of them and are reportedly most impressed, while the 777X is still an unproven experimental model. It's unlikely that the performance targets will miss, but the fact remains that the A350 is a viable going...
That may well be the case, but the bottom line is that the 350 already has hundreds of airframes in commercial service making good money for their operators and a very good impression on paying customers. Cathay has a swarm of them and are reportedly most impressed, while the 777X is still an unproven experimental model. It's unlikely that the performance targets will miss, but the fact remains that the A350 is a viable going concern that's being delivered right now, and the 777X isn't. It's a not a matter of Airbus vs Boeing, it's a matter of reality vs promises.
While I would like to see some 787s for more variety (especially the 78Xs to replace the aging 773As), a top-up order for their existing fleet is more likely. But I still believe it’s possible for them to acquire 78Xs.
If they do acquire more A350s, it’ll likely be delivered with a new cabin while current A350s get retrofitted to match later on.
If they don’t get 787s, the 77W can still serve them well...
While I would like to see some 787s for more variety (especially the 78Xs to replace the aging 773As), a top-up order for their existing fleet is more likely. But I still believe it’s possible for them to acquire 78Xs.
If they do acquire more A350s, it’ll likely be delivered with a new cabin while current A350s get retrofitted to match later on.
If they don’t get 787s, the 77W can still serve them well into the '40s to even early '50s, as their youngest frames are from the mid ‘10s. It’ll be much easier to reduce the TOW and rip out the crew rests rather than having to acquire a new type, get new sims, and get the crew and engineers up to speed.
But it’s still my belief they can make the 787s work.
And I see them getting some 778Fs to eventually replace their 748Fs, but that's still far out. Their current A350F order would replace their ERFs, which would be ripe for retirement once they start coming in.
"It’ll be much easier to reduce the TOW and rip out the crew rests rather than having to acquire a new type"
That's my best guess too. They could easily replace the 773 by stepping down the 773ER, without having to change anything other than the interiors (if that). Then back-fill the longhaul capacity with top up orders on the A350-1000 and or 777X, both of which they already have on their books.
Just would...
"It’ll be much easier to reduce the TOW and rip out the crew rests rather than having to acquire a new type"
That's my best guess too. They could easily replace the 773 by stepping down the 773ER, without having to change anything other than the interiors (if that). Then back-fill the longhaul capacity with top up orders on the A350-1000 and or 777X, both of which they already have on their books.
Just would seem really odd to add the 787, especially when Boeing is having so much trouble getting those out to customers who've already been expecting them for years. Then again, what isn't Boeing struggling to do?
CX was looking at the 78X years ago and viewed it as an "A330Plus" with a bit more passenger capacity, range, and cargo than your typical A330, while the 789s can work on routes that just might be deemed too big even for an A359. While the A359 is the natural successor to the A343, it's actually closer in size to the 789.
I think the 78Xs can very well work on flights to the...
CX was looking at the 78X years ago and viewed it as an "A330Plus" with a bit more passenger capacity, range, and cargo than your typical A330, while the 789s can work on routes that just might be deemed too big even for an A359. While the A359 is the natural successor to the A343, it's actually closer in size to the 789.
I think the 78Xs can very well work on flights to the ME and India if they need more uplift than an A330 but not too much with a 77W.
https://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/500590-cathay-mulls-787-10-replace-a330s-2.html
777X not selling well? It has a good chunk of orders, more than the A350-1000!
And who knows, the 779 might actually enter commerical service one of these years if Boeing can get its act together. It seems like a big ask, though.
I’m sorry, but this is clearly just China getting ready for bargaining with Trump.
It’s sort of blatant…
Mainland's CAAC and Hong Kong's CAD operate separately. Nothing to do with China nor Trump.
Cathay is controlled by a UK company, but don't let facts get in the way of your conspiracy theories...
"Cathay is controlled by a UK company"
Swire is still the largest individual shareholder in Cathay, but they haven't had a controlling stake for a while now.
And Air China only controls 30% (and Cathay itself owns a nearly 20% stake in Air China.) The rest is owned by Qatar Airlines. Let's stop the nonsense looking for absolute Chinese control of everything without letting facts get in the way please.
Conspiracy theory’s is a bit insulting mate. Dont fall into the same tactics used by others you disrespect.
Now, on to the facts. Do yall forget 2019? When Hong Kong fell and turned into China. The independence of Cathy was torn to shreds before our very eyes. Two of its top executives were forced to suddenly resign as a result of the Chinese governments pressure.
Just wait, this will be used as a...
Conspiracy theory’s is a bit insulting mate. Dont fall into the same tactics used by others you disrespect.
Now, on to the facts. Do yall forget 2019? When Hong Kong fell and turned into China. The independence of Cathy was torn to shreds before our very eyes. Two of its top executives were forced to suddenly resign as a result of the Chinese governments pressure.
Just wait, this will be used as a bargaining chip… if you don’t think this is likely then you prob need to read more international business news… it’s what every non democratic country does with their airlines and airplane purchases.
I don’t think I can post links here, but cnn had an article on the castration of Cathy in 2019… but I’ll quote from it:
“What happened to Cathay this week likely won’t be an anomaly, said William Reinsch, the Scholl chair for international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
He said that the Chinese government is already increasing its efforts to control companies and pressure them to conform to the party line.
“In [President] Xi Jinping’s administration, priority number one is maintaining party control,” Reinsch added. “That’s self preservation, and that’s more important than anything else.”
Those are facts my friend.
Ok! Moving on!
Cathay should order more A350-1000s.
Both you and I Nasir, know that the A350 is the logical choice, however, only time will tell if logic prevails.
How long will customers continue to believe Boeing's crazy delivery-date promises on the new 777?