Commercial aviation is incredibly safe, and there are often long periods of time where we don’t see any fatal accidents. Well, unfortunately today isn’t one of those days, as an Azerbaijan Airlines jet bound for Russia diverted to Kazakhstan, where it crashed, killing dozens.
In this post:
Azerbaijan Airlines E190 crashes after weather diversion
This incident happened today (Wednesday, December 25, 2024), and involves Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243, scheduled to operate from Baku, Azerbaijan (GYD), to Grozny, Russia (GRV). The 301-mile flight was operated by an 11-year-old Embraer E190 with the registration code 4K-AZ65, and there were 67 people aboard, including 62 passengers and five crew members.
Details about what exactly went wrong are limited as of now, but let’s talk about what we do know. The early part of the flight was routine, and the plane made it to near Grozny in under an hour, which is the typical flight time.
However, due to bad weather in the area, the crew made the decision to divert to Aktau, Kazakhstan (SCO), located 272 miles from the airport, across the Caspian Sea. Interestingly that’s basically the same distance from Grozny as the origin of Baku.
The plane attempted a landing on runway 11 at the airport, but while on approach, it impacted the ground near the runway, broke into pieces, and caught fire. That impact happened a bit over 2hr30min after first departing Baku. In a statement, the airline describes this as an “emergency landing” a few kilometers from the airport.
The aircraft was subject to GPS jamming, so some of the data about the aircraft’s movement aren’t entirely clear, which is why the map above looks the way it does.
In video footage, the plane can be seen entering a steep descent toward Aktau and even banking to the right. That’s definitely not normally how you’d shoot an approach, so clearly something was very wrong at this point.
Initial reports suggest that of the 67 people onboard, 27 have survived, meaning that 40 people are deceased. I imagine that number could still change slightly.
Let’s see what an investigation reveals
First and foremost, my thoughts are with those onboard and their families. To the survivors, may they make a quick and full recovery, and to those who are deceased, may they rest in peace.
It’s going to be very interesting to see what an investigation into this incident reveals. We know the reason for the initial diversion, though one certainly has to wonder why there were sudden issues with controlling the aircraft when it finally approached its diversion point.
Obviously no pilot would intentionally descend an aircraft so steeply while so close to the ground, so what was going on? Were there sudden flight control issues? Given for how long the plane had been flying, was it out of fuel (I doubt it, since the angle of descent likely wouldn’t be that steep)?
Azerbaijan Airlines has a fleet of roughly 30 jets, and has a great safety record in the past couple of decades. The carrier’s last fatal crash was in 2005, when one of the carrier’s Antonov An-140s crashed shortly after takeoff from Baku, while enroute to Aktau (the same airport as here). All 23 people onboard died.
Bottom line
An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E190 crashed this morning in Kazakhstan, in what can only be described as a strange accident. The aircraft was supposed to operate a short flight from Baku to Grozny, but due to bad weather, ended up diverting to Aktau. For whatever reason, while the aircraft was on approach to Aktau, it entered a steep descent and banked, crashing into the ground. While some passengers survived, a majority lost their lives.
How sad… here’s to hoping a swift and thorough investigation is performed, to prevent something like this from happening in the future.
What do you make of this Azerbaijan Airlines crash?
A few hours later - reoprts are over 30 survivors, amazingly. it seems quite likely the cause was flight control issues as a result of being shot at by Russian ground based systems. Absolutely tragic. Horrible that this was yet another result of Putin's brutal and pointless war. Amazing flying by the pilots keeping it in the air for over an hour after being shot at and helping over 30 people survive. They seemed to...
A few hours later - reoprts are over 30 survivors, amazingly. it seems quite likely the cause was flight control issues as a result of being shot at by Russian ground based systems. Absolutely tragic. Horrible that this was yet another result of Putin's brutal and pointless war. Amazing flying by the pilots keeping it in the air for over an hour after being shot at and helping over 30 people survive. They seemed to have gotten below 500 feet over the water multiple times and recovered.
I flew on this exact plane a year and a half ago, while still in the Buta Airways livery. Chilling.
There are now reports that the plane was shot at and videos of shrapnel like damage to the plane visible after it crashed. Chechnya was also under attack by Ukrainian drones earlier today. It is possible the plane was hit by someone who was trigger happy on the ground.
I’m sure we will find out more soon
Survivor reports being hit by shrapnel mid-air. As you mention, video shows shrapnel damage to fuselage and empanage. Russian air defense thought it was a Ukrainian drone.
Wouldn’t be the first time Ukrainian terrorists have shot down a civilian airliner.
Please seek professional help
Hey Einstein, if it's shot down on approach to a Russian airport, it would have been shot down by the Russians, their air defense system. Brilliant.
*Russian-proxy militias in Ukrainian territory
This does seem highly likely. Collateral damage from Putin's war.
After viewing the extended video posted, I retract the theory about a possible hijacking, and strongly think there was a flight control malfunction. Looks like the pilots were fighting an aft trim that caused the aircraft to pitch up, then down as power was reduced to get the aircraft to pitch down. Doesn’t explain the bank to the right that low to the ground.
My theory now is either the P-ACE or HS-ACE malfunctioned, causing...
After viewing the extended video posted, I retract the theory about a possible hijacking, and strongly think there was a flight control malfunction. Looks like the pilots were fighting an aft trim that caused the aircraft to pitch up, then down as power was reduced to get the aircraft to pitch down. Doesn’t explain the bank to the right that low to the ground.
My theory now is either the P-ACE or HS-ACE malfunctioned, causing a pitch control issue, which led to the crash.
Pilot here. I flew this airplane’s little brother, the E175, which shares a type rating and has an identical flight deck and design to the E190.
Given that things were VMC, it would’ve been simple for the pilots to get radar vectors or track a ground based navigation aid. The autopilot isn’t able to track a VOR radial, but this can be done while hand flying or in heading mode while keeping a radial centered....
Pilot here. I flew this airplane’s little brother, the E175, which shares a type rating and has an identical flight deck and design to the E190.
Given that things were VMC, it would’ve been simple for the pilots to get radar vectors or track a ground based navigation aid. The autopilot isn’t able to track a VOR radial, but this can be done while hand flying or in heading mode while keeping a radial centered. I predict GPS jamming is not the culprit of this accident.
Given the aircraft was in a nose low attitude and banked, while in VFR conditions, and there appeared to be zero flight control inputs or corrections registering, my theory is that this was a flight control issue. This aircraft is fly by wire, although the Ailerons have zero protections (called higher level functions). The RAT was not deployed which means this wasn’t an electrical issue. A flight control malfunction (either with the fly by wire or somewhere else along the way) would mean the control inputs to recover didn’t register, and the aircraft crashed.
The only other cause for something like this would be a hijacking. It’s suspicious that there was a diversion involved, but also no control inputs to correct for the aircraft’s nose low attitude were observed from the outside.
May everyone who perished rest in peace, and may all the survivors have a quick recovery. I hope the cause of this accident is determined soon.
I agree with you. We have been flying for the last few years across the middle east with GPS issues and overall it is a non-issue. The plane freaks out a bit but navigates just fine using inertial navigation and gorund based navaids. GPA jamming doesnt down a plane.
Here’s another video which makes it look like there were issues with flight controls.
https://youtu.be/C4YmtAKeGSg?si=T4QzS8Gj9ZoCVMj3
Initial reports blamed it on a bird strike, which of course is ridiculous but suggests someone is trying to cover something up. Grozny is Chechnya, controlled by Putin's wacko friend Kadyrov, whose troops are known for their TikTok reports from Ukraine. The only truth we may ever know is that the survivors were in the back of the plane.
Tragic indeed -so awful. Lucky - no comments on the GPS jamming? Seems strange no?
@ Sarthak -- Based on my understanding, there are a lot of GPS jamming issues in and around Russian airspace. So while that's strange on a global level, it's less strange when we're talking about Russia. Also, I would think that wouldn't explain such a steep descent moments before landing. We'll see what an investigation reveals.
Ok got it. Thanks!
Absolutely nothing strange about it, I think that Finnair even cancelled one of its routes to the Baltics due to the jamming (could have been because it was operated by an ATR or some other turboprop without very sophisticated systems).
GPS issues don’t bring down a plane in visual meteorological conditions. That also wouldn’t explain this [apparent] loss of control.