Yesterday I had a (non-miles & points) friend ask me a question that I’ve received many times over the years, with minor variations. “I’m flying in a few days and my flight looks really empty, are they just going to cancel it?” It’s a fair question, so let me address that here.
Airlines don’t usually cancel flights close to departure
It’s extremely rare for airlines to cancel flights close to departure simply because they’re not full. It might seem counterintuitive to operate a flight that’s likely to be unprofitable, but it gets at the complexity of airline operations.
Sure, maybe the flight you’re on isn’t full, but planes are scheduled to operate a sequence of flights, so it’s not practical to just take a plane out of service in that way. For that matter, crews have schedules that they have to work as well, so not having a crew in the right place can have a domino effect. So the reality is that canceling a flight because it isn’t full would be a lot more trouble than it’s worth.
Another thing I’d add is that I think people often make assumptions about flights not being full. Typically, people assume a flight isn’t full if they look at the seat map and don’t see a lot of seats occupied. However, keep in mind that many airlines charge to assign seats in advance, or many passengers (particularly in some parts of the globe) aren’t necessarily in the habit of booking seats in advance. Even if you’re looking at fare classes, just because a flights is “nines” across the board doesn’t mean it’s wide open.
As you can see, above I say that it’s rare for airlines to cancel flights because they aren’t full, but I don’t want to say it never happens.
For example, if an airport starts dealing with flow control due to weather or ATC, or if planes need to be taken out of service, there’s obviously a hierarchy as to which flights have priority to depart. Similarly, if you’re flying a tiny airline startup, they may very well cancel flights because they aren’t full. But that’s the exception rather than the norm.
Airline schedules far in advance are really just placeholders
As you can see in the title of this post, I answered the question of whether airlines cancel empty flights with “yes and no.” Above I explained the “no” part, but there is also a “yes.” Far in advance, airline schedules are really just placeholders.
Like, if you’re booking a flight 11 months in advance, it’s far from a sure bet that the flight will operate with that exact schedule. Quite to the contrary, it’s near certain that there will be some sort of a schedule change before departure, and that could be a change of a few minutes, a few hours, or a cancelation altogether.
That’s because airlines are constantly optimizing their schedules based on demand, aircraft availability, macroeconomic conditions, etc.
How close to departure should you assume that a schedule is pretty firm? I’d say that it’s most common for airlines to make schedule changes three or more months in advance. However, it’s not unheard of to see schedule changes between one and three months of departure. Within a month, I’d say it’s rare to see a significant schedule change. Again, that’s not to say it’ll never happen, though.
Bottom line
There’s a common misconception that airlines will cancel flights if they appear to be empty close to departure. That’s exceedingly uncommon, due to the fact that it’s not easy to just take planes out of service, since the planes and crews have to be positioned elsewhere for another flight. Also keep in mind that just because a seat map is empty, doesn’t mean the flight will end up going out empty.
All that being said, airlines do constantly update their schedules far in advance, especially a few months out, and more.
What’s your take on airlines canceling flights that aren’t full?
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