Recently, we saw JetBlue Airways and United Airlines announce plans to launch a partnership, which will be known as ”Blue Sky.” This partnership includes frequent flyer reciprocity, potential slot swaps, and more. The idea is that it’s supposed to start slow, and grow over time.
Continue reading: Spirit Objects To “Anticompetitive” United & JetBlue Partnership
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
If we want a strong “Big 6,” then deals like United-JetBlue (or American-JetBlue, which all of the bloggers still obviously want) won’t work. You need to strengthen the JetBlues, Spirits, Frontiers, Breeze, Alaska, Avelos of the world. Maybe they can merge amongst themselves. But it is hard for me to see any of United, Delta, American or Southwest being allowed to buy another US airline in the near future by any administration.
Seems weird to write this article without mentioning the crucial context - that Jetblue and Spirit had a merger in place which was blocked by a federal judge.
Spirit DID try to 'join them,' and they were blocked from doing so
With the constraints on NEA (from scheduling) and the Spirit-Jet Blue merger, I don't disagree with what Spirit is saying especially from swap of constrained spots at JFK to unconstrained spots at EWR.
I don't care in the least about the credit card/frequent flier considerations. What concerns me is turning New York into an effective duopoly between United and Delta. There's no universe where that's good for competition and the consumer unless landing slots start being auctioned off in rotating leases.
I said when the B6/UA deal was announced, there are uncompetitive elements including in the joint sales aspect of the arrangement which will happen early in the cooperation and then UA's stated intention to release space at EWR for B6 to grow; EWR is not slot controlled and it is anti-competitive for 2 airlines to coordinate schedules at EWR or any other airport. Slot leases and swaps are acceptable.
Yes, the deal should be reviewed. If it is all above board, no harm will be done.
and UA is still neck in neck w/ DL for the top two airlines in NYC. Any combination involving the top 3 carriers in any market should require government scrutiny
the DOJ blocked that deal because B6 would have taken out a lower cost and lower price competitor.
B6/UA does not propose some of the same problems that killed the NEA or B6/NK but it has its own issues as I noted above.
Blah, blah, blah. The current administration doesnt care about any of this. Kirby has already paid his dues and Delta will be the loser. Too bad, Timmy.
The issue is that it's doubtful that either Spirit or Jetblue can make it as a standalone entity. The US domestic airline industry demands you either be very large or have a unique niche. Neither Spirit or Jetblue has either.
So the government needs to either allow a merger/joint venture where some employees will continue to have a job or let the airline completely fail, everyone loses a job, or a TWA like Chapter 7 asset sale where more employees would lose a job than a merger.
So pick your poison.
Thank you Spirit Airlines. I was just about to contact New York Attorney General Letitia James about this slot swap scheme.
The current administration doesnt care about any of this, but a federal court in Boston probably will.
JetBlue had a unique niche, called Mint, but they threw it all away.
JetBlue's advantage was that it could offer lie-flat premium seats to more than just BOS/NY to SF/LA.
They had FLL on the East Coast + various other West Coast destinations beyond the BOS/NY and SF/LA niche.
They kept having terrible ontime performance, didn't expand their loyalty programme, and ran a generally mediocre operation
Really I think what JetBlue's lesson they learned and what they're attempting to do w/ the UA partnership, is that loyalty progammes at the future of airline profitability.
Alaska has been successful on various fronts because they offer award partnerships and interline with many many airlines, even before they were in Oneworld, which offered an extremely sticky passenger base because flying from SEA to Asia for 60k miles in business class is insane value.
The secondary aspect of deeper partnerships and marketing/selling itineraries with partners has been beneficial since it fills their seats and gets their customers familiar with their international airline partners too.
I really think network wise B6 and AA would've been my preferred combo, but if UA keeps B6 alive, I won't be unhappy.
American has a hub in JFK that they choose to under-serve. That’s not United or Delta’s fault
first, as much as some people repeat over and over again that the current administration doesn't care about antitrust enforcement, there isn't a single case inside or outside of the airline industry that suggests a change in what has been fairly consistent policy other than a heightened bent against business under the last administration.
and it is not just the President that rules on antitrust policy and many states can and will object because it is their citizens that pay the price for consolidation of the airline industry.
Bob,
and the winner IS Delta. Combined with the reduced capacity at EWR - which has shifted the largest airline in NYC title to DL - and the fact that DL is the largest airline at both JFK and BOS and the largest legacy carrier at FLL - DL is well-positioned to pick up whatever B6 can't carry. As much as UA loves to talk about how it will put all of the low cost carriers out of business -which the DOJ has certainly noted - DL actually has put more pressure on a weak carrier than anything that UA could hope to do - and DL doesn't grandstand about it.
"Combined with the reduced capacity at EWR - which has shifted the largest airline in NYC title to DL"
Except by the normal Airline size metric, capacity, where United is 24% bigger in NYC in 2025.
But live your dream... Facts have rarely stopped you.
How far a plane flies does not impact the number of passengers it can board.
The Port Authority DOES publish passenger boardings and it shows very clearly that DL has taken the lead in the NYC market that started EVEN BEFORE the full-scale runway closure.
UA will likely ALWAYS generate more revenue and fly more ASMs. but you can't accept that profit margin just might be higher on shorter flights than on international long flights.
We get that you desperately want to argue whatever statistic you can to keep from admitting that DL continues to grow its place in NYC but UA led in number of flights and passengers - on top of revenue and ASMs - and has lost the number of flights and passengers part.
none of which changes that it is beyond ludicrous to think that it is good for any consumer for DL or UA to grow by acquiring any part of any operator in NYC or any market where they or AA or WN are the top 3 carriers.
Again...
not arguing. Just facts no matter how many paragraphs you write to obfuscate a very normal industry size metric. I can accept lots of things though it appears normal industry metrics are something you simply do not accept. And there's a reason it's the normal industry metric, because DL has lots and lots of wasted slots on RJs doing very little except flights to nowhere like ALB and ORH because they have to use the slot or use it.
Normal Size metric in the industry: Capacity.
United is 24% bigger than DL in 2025 across the three NYC airports.
But thank you for making my point about why Capacity is the normal industry size metric, as you note, United will likely always be the biggest in NYC for Capacity (normal size metric) and revenue (not a normal size metric but a good measuring stick for the utility of the DL vs UA networks in NYC).
Stick to facts, Tim.
This has pretty heavily covered in various blogs, particularly VFTW, but to paraphrase American's problem at JFK they put in too much to give up but don't have enough landing slots to succeed. That's why the AA/B6 partnership was so big a win for everyone. Well, everyone except Delta and United who suddenly faced stiffer competition in the NYC area market.
well, yes, you are arguing. and you are cherrypicking the data that fits your narrative while excluding the metrics that you don't want to have to admit where UA has lost its leadership.
United led in NYC in ALL categories and has lost the title of number of flights to DL - which happened a couple years ago - and passengers boarded which happened in April.
those are the facts, all of them, including the ones you don't want to admit.
I'm sure Spirit will be happy to call you to the witness stand to prove why United should not be allowed to engage in any commercial strategy with B6 or any other airline in NYC - so thank you for being persistent in touting UA's size, even if you can't admit the whole story.
ahh, yes. Me cherrypicking the industry standard metric for size, capacity, to explain to you why United is 24% bigger than Delta in 2025 in NYC.
You then reminding everyone why that metric is used, because it usually reflects very accurately another major size metric in a metro area, revenue. Where even you admit Delta will never be bigger or create more revenue across the three NYC airports vs United.
Sometimes it's just best to admit you're wrong and move along, Tim.
Per seats, Delta has yet to produce a full year of having more seats across the three NYC airports which, again, is still a useless metric when Delta is just trying to hold on to slots by flying a couple times a day to Albany and ORH, among other examples.
I admire your unique and deranged desire to make everything Passport plum themed, but facts often get in your way.
Moving on from this kindergarten class on Airline Economics.
This.
Every aviation-geek in the industry has argued that Alaska and JetBlue should merge. Spirit + Frontier or Spirit/Breeze and Frontier/Avelo could also be things.
But the Big3 absorbing any of them, should be avoided.
let me say it one more time since you can't stand to admit that I am right and so argue incessantly.
UA was the largest airline in NYC by flights, passengers, ASMs and revenue.
UA HAS LOST the first two titles.
ALL for-profit businesses are ranked first and foremost by revenue and then profits.
ASMs might be an airline specific metric that YOU want to cling to but it speaks volumes about UA that they can't turn their larger network size on an ASM basis into higher total revenue and profits; the only way they did it in the first quarter was by underpaying their employees by such a huge amount.
Their profits will either fall as they pay their employees more or have a highly unhappy workforce that will no longer believe the unicorns and rainbow narrative as they watch their peers make much more money.
and even if all you care about is ASM, all it takes is for DL to add a couple A350 flights to East and S. Asia and the ASM lead for UA is vanquished for good.
And it will happen, Max.
quit childishly arguing and just walk away.
Why wouldn’t an Alaska / JetBlue tie up make the most sense? Seattle / JFK hubs to tackle Asia / Europe flights respectively.
Industry metric for size: Capacity
Winner by 24%? United.
Winner by seats in every year so far? United.
Revenue in NYC? Per Tim Dunn? United.
Profit? Most analysts (real ones, not you) constantly refer to EWR as one of the most profitable hubs in the country yet here you are trying some stupid new line out without any data.
Move along, tim.
you're embarrassing yourself.
This is really a stupid argument. You clearly said something that was just wrong and hate to admit when you're wrong.
It's really tragic to watch but entertaining to watch
ASMs are the metric YOU want to focus on so you don't have to deal w/ the reality that UA has lost 2 of the 4 titles it once held in NYC.
What Anthony said in the FCO/BCN thread highlights exactly what your problem is, Max.
You are incapable of admitting that two people can win and that is how NYC has operated for years between DL and UA and also the way AS and DL have existed in SEA.
Nothing is static and DL is not interested in allowing AS growing into international markets and DL has flawlessly grown its presence in NYC while AA, B6 and UA have all stumbled.
Again, all it takes is for DL to add a few flights from JFK to Asia and UA's lead in every metric will be over.
Instead of getting me primed to remind you how incapable you were of admitting that NYC is a divided market, I am simply waiting for DL to announce those flights to Asia which will invite the strongest response of how wrong you were on ALL counts.
of course it makes the most sense for AS and B6 to combine.
And, as much as UA wants to think it has outfoxed everyone else, it is very possible that AS could choose to acquire B6 and get it approved long before UA could get the time of day at the DOJ.
UA simply wants to try to recover from its strategic failure in leaving JFK and from the FAA's decision to shrink EWR's capacity, both of which will leave DL the largest airline in NYC.
Competitively, it would be very bad for the public for any of AA, DL or UA to gain anything from B6 but UA is clearly desperate enough that they will try.
but let's remember that AS has a long ways to go to profitably integrate HA esp. if DL stays on top of them in the international markets where AS wants to grow.
Repeating the same thing in BOS and NYC where DL is by far larger might not be the smartest thing for AS to do.
except the DOJ and the federal judge in BOS said that AA could have the deal that B6 and UA just announced - but AA decided to sue instead.
AA had more slots in NYC than DL in 2005 when DL committed to growing NYC.
AA wilted, DL managed to outgrow UA.
AA tried to run to B6 to bail AA out from its strategic failures and now UA is doing the same thing with a slightly different twist - but both strategies are competitively flawed and will fail.
IOW, you can't keep up so you want to eliminate having to deal w/ someone that clearly understands the industry far better than you do.
You are emotionally and mentally incapable of admitting that two people or things can both win - which is the way NYC has worked for years.
UA lost two of the 4 "largest" titles it once held in NYC which is even more contested than it ever was.
Get back w/ us with actual flown RPM, not ASM, data for the 2nd quarter when cancellations for TLV, DXB and DEL are added up.
UA's size advantage even by ASMs is shrinking by the month on top of the 20% larger number of flights that DL operates from NYC in the wake of FAA capacity cuts at EWR.
and you will look even more foolish when DL gets around to adding flights from JFK to E. and S. Asia which will eliminate any size advantage UA has now.
I mean the government stopped B6 and NK’s merger therefore harming both severely. So if they are not going to apply the same logic for all airlines it looks iffy..