Ive written in the past about the general state of miles & points, and about how its the best of times, and the worst of times. Big picture, things are better than ever before when it comes to all the ways we can earn points, while theyre worse than ever before when it comes to to the ability to efficiently redeem them.
"Or should it try to prioritize rewarding a loyal customer over someone who just moved some points from a credit card program?"
But this is inherently in contradiction. Airlines are able to stay profitable and make tons of revenue because of selling miles to credit card programs.
If people stop using the co-brands or your program for transferrables, then you lose out in the long-term.
United seems to have understood the balance, having the credit card offers preferential rates on redemptions and limiting partner access, maintained no cancel/change fees.
In contrast, Flying Blue has just spit in the face of its Silver and Gold members, on top of nickel and diming awards. Genuinely, making awards non-changeable/refundable is some of the most anti-consumer decisions you could make. This is as brutal as the Etihad situation with their change and cancellation fees, given you're paying 25% more miles just to have some flexibility and you still need to pay fees.
@ yoloswag420 -- I don't disagree with much of what you said, but I also think there's some nuance missing. There's a difference between an airline having a hugely profitable co-branded card and a very close partnership with a singe bank (like Amex with Delta and Chase with United), because that's worth billions of dollars to them, due to the closeness of the partnership.
That's different than Flying Blue having a single card in the US issued by Bank of America, and then just casually partnering with all major transferable points currencies for points transfers. There's just not as much upside for Flying Blue as with one of the partnerships described above.
Flying Blue may not have as deep of a relationship in the US side, but they certainly have European co-branded cards.
Secondly, if the nature of transferable partners wasn't as big of a deal, then why are we increasingly seeing non 1:1 transfer deals being negotiated.
Cathay Pacific similarly only has one US card, but nerfed Amex down to 5:4, which means that the economics and upside of these generic transferable currencies is significant enough to act upon.
Flying Blue have officially said in annual reports and through Ben Lipsey that they're after the US transferrable points market. There's absolutely nothing casual about that, it's a core part of their business strategy.
As I suspected. I guess Ben is just running cover for Flying Blue/Tiffany.
It's worth noting he was invited to their new events for LP and such, so probably has to keep in their good graces.
@Lucky: Has there been any change with Flying Blue since Tiffany has taken it over?
(He just posted about major FB changes 10 hours ago.)
https://onemileatatime.com/news/flying-blue-award-pricing-changes-tiered-fares-devaluation/
Mhm... “It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...” Ben’s right, it’s feeling a bit Dickensian in 'the hobby' these days. 'It was the age of sign-up-bonus abundance, it was the age of stealth devaluations; the summer of record point balances, the autumn of ghost fares...' *sigh*
Yes, but a weak econony is allowing a certain airline to offer great deals on their newly-delivered A350-900s....
The biggest devaluation I have felt recently has been the loss of LH F to partner awards, to the point of routinely now letting multiple seats go out empty. The same with what seems to be their blocking of partner I awards within 3 days which is likely the ultimate culprit. I understand making a program be the sole one with access to F theoretically makes it more enticing, but as ben and others all have mentioned the surcharges and cancellation penalties are just insane and make miles & more a completely worthless program to any non-DACH based flyers in my mind. I get their ecosystem inherently is different what with the capping on credit card swipe fees and an inability to sell points directly like other airlines, but having access to F is not alone enough of a factor to ever make me really consider miles and more. I will miss aspirational redemptions but it does seem the move nowadays is to choose 1-2 carriers you are most loyal to, get mid to top tier status with them, get a credit card, and then enjoy preferential pricing and access to I level awards. United and FlyingBlue strike the best balance with this while AA and AS have maintained the value of their miles the most. No more F but at least if you do the above you can usually get where you want to go comfortable enough in I.
Airlines and hotels are now killing the golden goose. They benefited by the exponential flow of points.
But as they keep devaluing their offerings, nickel and dining in every which way, they make their programs less and less attractive. It's getting to a point where people ate caring less and less.
Look at how involved people were a few years ago on social media on some of the forums and subreddits that promoted this hobby. Lately many of those avenues barely have half the participation they used to have. As more and more people realize that this is a hobby with ever dwindling returns even more will walk away. It's just not worth the time and effort anymore.
@ BBT -- One would think that airlines would be killing the golden goose, but no airline earnings call I've heard reflects that. Just look at how co-brand revenue keeps going up for AA, DL, UA, etc., year over year. We might not like it, but unfortunately, it seems to be working?
This may feel like a don't shoot the messenger post, and it's not meant to be.
The volume of information about frequent flyer programs, credit cards and how to get best value in each of them out there has sort of turned the programs into a zero sum game due to the sheer volume of people engaged these days.
Back before the internet, and even when it was bulletin boards or niche forums, there were many ways to find value and far fewer doing so.
Now, there are many websites, social media accounts and other sources who shout the information to anyone and everyone who is looking at travel due to algorithms and SEO on Google etc.
Airlines have improved too as technology has moved forward to utilise the volume of points issued and calculate the best way to minimise the cost of redemptions, even making money from them through taxes and fees.
How to play the game has changed, finding the value is just a bit harder.
So i think there is (or should be) something a bit more nuanced going on. Airlines sell the same premium seats to two types of customer. The first type are businesses and very rich leisure travellers who will drop $7k on a ticket without thinking. The second type are value hunters who won't spend more than $3k, max. Redemptions are aimed at that second category – people willing to jump through annoying hoops to spend (the equivalent of) $3k. This also explains why airlines are getting more brazen about selling miles directly – businesses and rich travellers won't mess around with that, but value-seekers will. The same segmentation applies to redemptions – people who earn miles disproportionately through expensive self-funded flights will redeem disproportionality for a (low) cash discount rather than messing with availability.
I'm not sure how aligned airlines are with the above "take", but it does feel pretty fundamental to loyalty programmes; otherwise you'd just make loyalty programmes be cash based. (Ok; maybe Delta isn't aligned!)
@ ChrisDD -- I think you're largely spot on, and I'd argue it's a lot more than two types of passengers, as it's amazing how many "funnels" they've created for getting into premium cabin seats.
I agree that this is pretty much the case. The other aspect is the whales, who have accumulated hundreds of thousands to millions of points just sitting in accounts. Largely from OPM. Those types of people also want to see some sort of "value" as well, but never see the 25k TATL in J deals for when they want to use them, so they don't use the miles. And when they do, it's usually going to be a "bad" redemption, but then they have millions anyway.
The other big factor is just plain inflation. Just like $10 25 years ago got you x, 100k miles 25 years ago is different than what you get now. And when you flood the market with points (looking at you Hilton), it ends up working the same way.
I'm probably part of the problem but I'll book transatlantic business class all day long at 140k points and get excited if its under 100k. I think expecting to continue to get that at 50k points is the same as trying to get gas for $1.50/gallon still.
It's all getting to be far more hassle than it's worth.
500k awards? No availablity at all for the better values? 27 credit, er, coupon cards?
I'm only still looking at this at all because I have so many points looking for a place to reasonably spend them. Sure I can take 50 4500 mile alaska awards, and that's a definitely a good value, but for the real stuff in international J/F it's just absurd now.
I will blow my points (reasonably), but I'm not signing up for more cards or buying points (even at 1.1c). I am not going to spend more time searching for a value ticket that the time I will be on the actual trip. It's insane.
Wait till they hurt again and start begging us. It all goes in cycles. (ditto hotels, by the way, in fact I dropped them first)
This is supposed to be a somewhat fun hobby where you feel very good about getting a good redemption and regular good about getting an OK redemption. But we all know we're playing with casino chips. If it doesn't feel good for you anymore, cash them in and, well, use cash. Cash is king!
For clarification, was that a different Peter, or were you replying to yourself but had you just not logged in yet?
With today's FB devaluation, Aeroplan partner availability issues, and high fees/devaluations of Avios, do transferable points from AMEX and CapOne really retain their value, even at conservative 1.7c? Are there "mainstream" good value transfers, or is it now mostly "niche" ones?
British Airways is solid value because they release so much advance space, and their surcharges are bad but not beyond the pale.
Singapore Krisflyer also a lot of value if you want to go to Asia.
AC not as dependable as those two but still a lot of value. Last month I found 4 seats on the date I wanted to get back from Italy, PMO-ZRH-IAD in J for 75k apiece for next April.
It's not like it used to be (I'd rate the points at 1.5cpp not 1.7) but I keep playing/winning the game
BA are useless and overpriced, but there's still decent value to be found through Avios on IB.
Well you might find them overpriced but they're certainly not useless. They probably release the most space of any airline. And if you fly them ex-LHR the cost is much lower because they reduce some of their surcharges to account for the APD.
To wit: you want to fly from London to New York next June. You can fly in J for 88k avios, which you could do for 62k with the current transfer bonus, plus $499. And there's availability on virtually every flight, every day.
United wants 200k if you don't have their credit card, and 72k if they do. Plus $428. So the marginal cost of BA is only $71. I'll pay $71 to have space for the whole family every day of the week.
That's cherry picking - I checked a random day in October and, together with their JV partner, they have an incredible 13 direct flights to New York (by comparison, they only have 3 to Frankfurt- when LH have 7 LHR rotations- and 8 to AMS which is only 40 minutes away).
As anyone who's ever tried to use a BA companion voucher to travel to S. Africa, Thailand, Australia etc will tell you, their award availability is pretty dire unless one calls at midnight when the schedule opens...and in any event, they're a mediocre airline based at a dreadful airport (and even within that, T5 isn't anywhere near as pleasant as T2).
Iberia, on the other hand, have been making real progress, particularly in terms of their premium products, and their awards are also priced more competitively.
Re British Airways rewards... I've been watching potential redemptions for flights between Italy & the US west coast during Nov and Dec. I have a bunch of BA Avios, but every routing I see also showing up via Aadvantage or Alaska Atmos points (on BA metal) will require over 2x the number of Avios for business class. Why is BA releasing award space to partners for redemptions for far fewer points?
Example: LAX/LHR/FCO business class, same exact BA flights
57,500 Aadvantage
85,000 Atmos
121,000 Avios
@gstork BA, like most OW airlines, are wanting to charge you extra for the local connection. I believe that AS and AA have zonal pricing so you're not spending an extra 25k miles or whatever for the 90 minutes to/from LHR.
You left out the best part... the UK surcharges. (How many hundreds of dollars/pounds do you owe in addition to those points?)
Points are becoming the new Zimbabwe runaway inflation.....
Huge hassle finding awards, available dates, positioning, making an extra stop, taking airlines you wouldn't otherwise. Getting outsized values of >3 cpm are pretty much over; I'm getting to the point where I'd rather take a 1.4-1.7 cpm flat value.
Well, I hope you got lots of SkyMiles and a Delta credit card because that's pretty much their formula!
Gene, you still doing the ole Amex-Delta foursome? 2x Reserve, 2x Platinum, business/person, for the 10K MQD fast-track to Gold each year? Lots of AFs, but at least you’re SE+ without flying an inch.
Agree with ChrisDD on < $3k redemptions (at least TATL), which almost excludes AFKLM after after today's devaluation. This prompts a question of transferable points value for Capital One and American Express. Are there any "mainstream" transfers that give good value?
To the people who say you can’t find good value anymore. Just today I booked iAd-mad 36k saver Econ plus a 400 premium plus upg. That’s a 1350 dollar ow ticket for 35k miles plus 400. Or 3cpp easy.
Business class iad to Europe is not hard on ual for 80k miles plus minimal taxes. Easily 2-2.5cpp.
You just need to do the work and be a bit flexible
That's actually a pretty bad deal considering that last week I booked IAD-MAD for 59k and $120, and with the 30% avios transfer bonus it actually cost about 45k points
There's still plenty of value to be had but you just need to scrutinise every transaction on its own merits.
Example 1: Iberia may want a four-figure sum for an one way ticket to MVD or whatever in Y, but you can find yourself in business class spending a handful of Avios and €600 through cash and miles.
Example 2: The prices of many/most revenue tickets within sub-Saharan Africa are borderline insane, I've gotten redemptions with a theoretical value corresponding to fewer than 12 miles to the dollar (8+ cpm).
Example 3: I've just made a redemption with SAS using 15k points for a short haul one-way Y ticket being sold for £350 (that's August in Europe for you!).
As with most hobbies, and even professions, critical thinking is important while knowledge and experience make things quicker and easier.
The apology for Flying blue terrible changes continue...
Can we get airlines to do more SAS-style 1,000,000 giveaways but with status? I’d do the Jeb Brooks 24 hour US airline hub run or attempt to fly around the world hitting key alliance hubs back to back without repeating airlines (eg. OneWorld would require Dallas, Seattle, Sao Paolo(?), Tokyo, Sydney, Doha/Amman, Casablanca/Rabat, and London/Madrid; Star Alliance is pick a UA or AC hub, Frankfurt/Munich/Zurich, Johannesburg, Auckland, Tokyo, and Panama City; SkyTeam is Atlanta, Mexico City, Lima/Buenos Aires, Paris/Amsterdam, Nairobi, and Seoul) if it meant getting top tier alliance or airline status for a year.
Interesting idea though there are zero oneworld hubs to be found to the South of MIA unless you leave the Americas altogether!
I think that UA, DL and TK have some kind of status challenges available, though, a bit like everyone else nowadays, they seem to prioritise their own metal over alliance partnerships.
I just booked two business class seats on LOT from Warsaw to Toronto for a total of 150,000 Aeroplan points. I also booked a Vienna-Montreal business class ticket on Austrian for 85,000 points. The key though- and this may not be true for many people - is knowing six months ahead of time what flights you want.
Airlines want revenue from banks. They get more revenue from co-brand cards than from selling miles to banks. But both are important sources of revenue. So FB and others all need to thread a bit of a needle - they need to keep dangling some attractive redemptions to keep folks playing the game while pushing folks towards co-brand card acquisition and spending.
That's what FB has done here. They launched a co-brand card to get you on their status wheel. Hit a SUB and you're silver and on your first anniversary if you spend $25k on the card you're 20XP away from Gold. And then the following year spend another $25k and get 160XP of the 300XP needed for Platinum. (Unless of course you thread your own needle, get the card first, then status match to gold, and then hit the SUB and do the $25k spend so you'll get 260XP of the 300XP needed for FB Plat in year 1... not unattractive and FB obviously knows people are trying to do this- I'll be floored if they do not bring the status match back in the next month or two in time for year end "juicing revenue fun")
The real question is whether they've made the Silver / Gold benefits attractive enough to get on the ladder in the first place. Sure feels like the two things this community cares about (free changes/cancellations and more saver fares) are reserved for Platinum. And that's going to potentially disincentivize people from engaging with the program in the first place, especially folks from the US who know that Skyteam Elite Plus is not that great of an alliance status.
In my opinion, what they need to do is offer a little bit more of a sweetener once you get to Gold. Maybe if you are Gold and you have the credit card you get 2 free changes / cancellations a year. Something like that.
The revenue and loyalty departments can fight all they want, but at the end of the day, the ones that work together will end up delivering the most value for their companies.
With FB, specifically, I was under the impression that the whole reason to really go for Platinum was to be able to actually redeem points for La Premiere. Otherwise, why? Like, it’s not worth all that effort just so award tickets avoid a change fee.
As for the macro airline/points/banks situation, unless there are consumer protections like an EU261, in the US, airlines basically face little to no penalties for marketing, selling, collecting interest free loans from paying consumers (whether it be bank points or actual cash), then, on-the-day-of, they can cancel for any reason (profit margin wasn’t good enough, staffing issue, actually the weather, etc.) So, maybe, like, we in the US should finally pass an equivalent law, so, that, you know, actual duty of care and financial compensation for such games. (Kinda my whole thing. Glad you got more MCE coming, at least.)
I think the more valuable benefit of FB Platinum is increased award space being offered at the saver level. Not that I'd be opposed to an LP redemption of course.
If you're looking for a new one, how about this - why does the FDIC insurance scheme not cover points? Are points not essentially value that you have deposited at a bank?
What is the problem?
3 words~ CREDIT CARD POINTS!
QED.