Which Credit Card Should You Use At Hotels? Here's The Math...

If you have any status with AA and any credit card with AA, the AAdvantage Hotels portal can be a great deal. With the Citi AAdvantage Executive Card you earn 10x points (1x base/LP and 9x bonus) on the $ amount spent. Then each hotel offers its own set of additional miles, which are elevated offerings based on if you have any status or any credit card with AA. Sometimes portal pricing is way too inflated and I'll book direct (not just an issue with AA's portal of course). Sometimes it's basically equivalent (or within, say, $10-20) and you can get a significant amount of additional AA base miles/LP. Plus you may get a 20% or 30% LP bonus if you have earned 60k or 100k LPs with AA in the last 6 months.

Here's an example from an upcoming stay I have (rounded the #s) in a major European capital at a luxury hotel not associated with a major chain.

Rate is ~$500 for flexible rate/breakfast included (was same price as if booking direct) + 10,000 base miles.

So I get 5,000 miles from the AA Executive Card ($500x10) plus 10,000 extra base miles from the booking. I'm currently in the 20% LP bonus so I'll get 12,000 LPs (120% of the 10,000 base miles from the booking) plus an additional 500 LPs from the credit card spend (at $1/base mile/LP). All in that's 15,000 miles plus 12,500 LPs on a $500 booking.

That's 30 miles per $, plus LPs. And they are AA miles which, yes, are not as flexible as MR or UR but are still valued by this site at 1.5 cpp or $225 in value. For purposes of this example, can value the LPs at $0 (although obviously valuable if chasing status).

Let's say I booked the same through the Chase portal and got 8x points - that's 4,000 UR points or $68 in value. Or the Citi portal and got 10x points - that's 5,000 TY points or $85 in value. Doesn't come close, and that's without even considering AA status.

Is every deal "this good"? Nope. And if you value staying with major chains (I do not) or perks with major chains (have status through credit cards, I don't value the perks at all), then AA Hotels may not be for you. But if you are a casual traveler staying ~15-20 nights a year in places where you want to stay and are not loyal to a major chain, the AA Hotels program can offer some incredible value.

Other options:
Citi Custom Cash 5x. Based on the above valuation of 1.7 cents/point, this would be 8.5% return. The 5x earn is up to $500 per billing cycle, but front desk usually allows you to split payments. Also foreign transaction fees.
Venture X and Citi Premier both offer 10x for hotels booked through their portal. Both have similar programs to FHR, though IME not as many options. With VX you can combine with the $300 annual credit. And Citi Premier has an annual benefit of $100 off of $500 spent on a hotel through the portal.

What drives your high valuation of ultimate rewards? I would say Hyatt is one of the most valuable transfer partners and both the chase sapphire reserve and Hyatt cards earn 4x

My main quibble with your analysis is on the economics of using Hilton cobranded Aspire card at Hilton hotels. A Hilton point generally isn't worth 0.5 cents by a not-insignificant amount, so I'd say, other than at Hyatt hotels, none of the cobranded hotel cards is worth using, unless you need to accumulate hotel status points to reach your status level with the hotel chain.

Good a post overall, but I really would like a second "easy use" valuation for the transferrable points currencies for all points valuation articles. For those of us who don't plan to use our points to fly international business class with a secondary or middle eastern airline, transferrable points aren't worth nearly what OMAAT and other points sites claim they are. Maybe a "jump through hoops international business class" valuation and an "easy redeem valuation" like simply using the points for their highest valuation with the issuer or transferring them for easy use like to hotel brands.

Chase has a couple of Marriott cards, including the Marriott Bonvoy® Boundless Credit Card and the Marriott Bonvoy® Premier
Plus Business Credit Card. Should they not be evaluated somewhere in the mix?

In order for the comparison to be comprehensive, you would also have to evaluate the various free night certificates that come with the hotel cards, and the annual fees of the cards.

Both of those cards earn the same six Marriott points per dollar (before elite status bonuses) on Marriott stays as the Amex cards do.

Some of the hotel rates require a specific card to be used (e.g. Amex Business Card Rate). I think this needs to be updated in line with the new Chase redemption. Both Preferred and Reserve will mostly have the same value except for a limited list of redemption options. Furthermore, I do not agree with your percentages of value. I think it depends what you do with the points / how you redeem. I also think if you frequent a particular hotel group there are other benefits of having their credit card that make it valuable so the extra points you earn from the transaction contribute as one of the benefits.

I totally agree with this and use the AAdvantagehotels.com portal and pay with the AA Citi exec card every chance I get. Using this method returns are typically 20-30x miles per dollar spent on the hotel, plus the loyalty points earned of course. There is simply nothing else giving even close to as good as a return on hotel spend when you are getting back nearly 50% of the hotel price kicked back as AA miles.

Tough for me to justify the Choice Hotel cards when the WF autograph cards transfer to Choice at a 1:2 ratio. So that 4x on the autograph journey could be 8x choice points (or 3x to 6x on the no AF version) while still having the other transfer partners available