Club Carlson Conundrum: Award, Revenue, Or Mix?

By the way, my wife and I just took advantage of this offer over last weekend with separate accounts in which she received the targeted email and I didn't. We both received the extra 10000 points in our individual accounts.

Maury -- That's great to hear. I manage multiple Carlson accounts for family members. Mine was the only one targetted, but I registered them all for the 10,000 bonus anyway just in case. Glad to hear it might post!

Travis, interesting analysis. Do you have the link for EYS promo, in case its still on for registration?

Getting EYS on 2-for-1 rate is a huge YMMV. The 2-for-1 rates book as one paid, one free and they will likely count as one-night stay, ineligible for EYS.

Travis, I would go with option 1, unless you have so many Club Carlson points you really don't need more.

Here is my reasoning:

-Option 1: -$430; +139,610 points.
-Option 2: -$144; +72,888 points.
-Difference: -$286 + 66,722 points - an effective purchase price of 0.43 cents/point for the extra points you get with Option 1.

I value CC points at 0.5 cents each, and could easily value them higher, given the enormous value of "last night free" stays in Europe. (Looking at it another way, $10,000 in credit card spend gets you 2 nights in very nice European city hotels, which is unbeatable.) (Even if Club Carlson modifies or drops "last night free", getting a night for $10,000 in credit card spend is a very reasonable deal.)

Excellent analysis ... but should you factor in the 3% foreign transaction fee if you are paying with the Club Carlson VISA?

I use my Chase Sapphire Preferred to pay hotel bills overseas (2 points/$, a 3% return). If you don't have CSP, I would use Club Carlson Visa and pay the fee (10 points/$ = 5% return, less 3% fee, equals net 2% return).

I'm with you, Phil. I'd use my CSP also - 2X plus 7% dividend for 2015) - but if you use the CC Premier Rewards VISA, there is a 10X CC points bonus which I think is factored into the above analysis. I couldn't totally follow the math, though.

So, if the above analysis is done assuming the points bonus, then using any other card would reduce the CC points earned in the analysis.

I guess the question is ... whether or not the analysis factors in the 10X CC VISA bonus or not.

Is that as clear ... as mud? haha

I would use points straight-up. Straight-up MS spend with nothing special, no CB Portals, double dips, etc.. will generate 88,000 points for $150.50 including fees to liquidate. Throw in lower priced GCs, or CB portals and you could easily push your cost to near zero. This is one of the sweetest deals out there currently with the BOGO and a second card. Easy to string stays together. My wife and I have used this all over Europe, Asia and the Caribbean for amazing redemption and still have balances in the 7 figures.

Nice analysis!
Since the extra night on awards seems like something that can't last, how would your analysis change if you thought it was being eliminated in 2016? Or 2017?

I think this partially depends on your current point balance. If you have enough points for your 2015 and 2016 stays, then don't value the extra points at today's value; factor in the likely evaluation. Given our low inflation, cash is not being devalued anytime soon.

I didn't do the calculation assuming I would pay with the Club Carlson Visa because I don't like foreign exchange fees. I didn't assume any credit card earning actually.

So I would earn 20 points / dollar for the stay, and then a 35% bonus. I *could* use the Club Carlson Visa and earn an extra 10 points / dollar, but then I would incur foreign exchange fees.

[This comment has been edited for accuracy. This is what happens when I respond to comments after flying all day! Thanks everyone for peer reviewing my work. Really appreciate it.]

LuckyWinner --

If the EMEA 2 for 1 rate doesn't post as a 2-night stay.... well, that's not good! The FlyerTalk thread seems to indicate that nobody really knows. I'm not sure I want to be the guinea pig. Thanks for pointing this out.

Might just pay with points straight up and be done with it.

BeachFan --

If you think the BOGO award night is going to disappear, then you are bearish on Carlson points and should be paying with points. That move could whack half the value of these overnight.

I know there is a lot of pessimism out there, but I'm cautiously optimistic (or at least neutral) it'll stick around for a while. Carlson has been very aggressive the past few years in terms of building their brand and following. They're on the radar now, but still have to offer a compelling value proposition to compete, and this is definitely a differentiator.

But like I say, I have a lot of Carlson points as it is, so I probably shouldn't be looking to add more.

Travis - Rite Aid is running a Buy & Earn in February; earn five codes and get a free domestic ticket. Will you be covering that topic soon? Thanks.

Mangoceviche --

Are you serious? Wow. I've already got a 2-year supply of toilet paper after this promo -- I don't need anymore for a while! 😉

Interestingly, back in 2007 there was a flight promotion followed by a hotel promotion. I only talked about the flight version in the blog post because I remembered more about it, and because it was more lucrative. I guess TRCo really is following the same template. Oh right, this time they are doing them in reverse.... creative!

Thanks for the update.

Travis, you actually earn 20 points per dollar for the stay (plus a 35% Gold bonus brings it to 27 points/dollar), plus another 10 points/dollar if you pay with the Club Carlson VISA card.

UAPhil -- So basically I was right before I was wrong.... story of my life, or something like that!

And maybe I should stop trying to respond to comments after flying all day, LOL, cause I just make it worse.

So I've re-edited the post to say that I am not assuming any credit card earnings, and that I earn 20 points / dollar + 35% Gold bonus. I also edited my comment above to try to eliminate confusion.

I really appreciate the peer review from you and everyone else. Thanks!!!

Thank you for taking the time to make this analysis and sharing it for our benefit, Travis! As a result, I canceled a two-night award stay in February and made a reservation for a paid stay. If all works as described, I should come out 40,000 points ahead at a cost of about $90, as long as the 2-for-1 Club Carlson card factor doesn't mess up the EYS bonus.

Nightreader --

Please be aware of the uncertainty as to whether the 2-for-1 rate will post as a 2-night stay. Obviously the is less lucrative (possibly a lot less lucrative) if it doesn't.

I decided that I didn't want to risk it, particularly since I already have a lot of Carlson points anyway.

Hopefully the analysis technique is still useful, even if you revise the cost of the stay.