LOT Polish Airlines Outlines Huge Expansion Plans

With LOT losing its codeshare status with United, NS24 would be the PERFECT opportunity for AA to launch its 2020 service to Krakow. It could stop LOT from building their lounge, solidify AA dominance on the route while LOT still flies outdated 787s, and reasonably turn into a year round service.

Alas, AA/US Scareways management has no b@lls and no desire to compete.

Elections are next weekend, so time for grand announcements.

How is any flight from Europe to PUS supposed to make money? Am I missing something here?

Exactly my thought. Nothing is strategic when the election (especially the parliamentary one) is looming in Poland. To give you an idea, last month PGE, the largest power-producing company in Poland unveiled new grand strategy. The strategy, outlined for the next 20+ years, did not survive even a week due to the upset caused among miners.
I would say that the story about the seats posted earlier today is likely and this is more of a campaign fuel. If the current government party wins then maybe, just maybe, this has some chance of actually being carried out, at least to some extent. This would make some sense, at least on the surface, as the hallmark project of this government is the Central Communications Port (CPK) – basically a hub transportation hub in the middle of the country. And it’s not like all of the capacity that it would provide would be filled by the likes of Air France/KLM, Lufthansa or British Airways.

I've flown with LOT on intra-Europe routes. It was good enough service and I would like to see them expand. However, these plans seems unlikely to materialize.

What would happen to miles & more if LOT changed alliances?

Ben, what are the other 4 of top 5 introductions you’d make. Would love to see some option pieces on what you think of the industry!

There’s a parliamentary election in Poland on Oct 15, so such vague promises for a state-controlled airline are no more than empty promises.

LOT just cancelled 2 787s, so this whole growth plan makes no sense. At the same time they have that new huge airport that aims to be a hub in Poland.

So a 15-25 order of 787 coming soon?

Can't get to Asia or America on 737MAX yet.

Scott Kirby has repeatedly told us that United's repeated large orders are necessary because delivery slots are scarce so LOT might not succeed at acquiring anything.
But then there have been a number of very large airplane orders by other airlines after every UA order so maybe Scott Kirby is, shall we say, stopped up.

Air France/KLM won SAS because SAS specifically said they were excluded from the AC/UA/LH Group transatlantic joint venture and therefore uncompetitive. LOT might not have what it takes to be part of any JV and might be planning to go it alone but if they aren't even given the option of being a part of the Star JV, they should shop around.

and for LH Group, having Star carriers defect on multiple sides of Germany could quickly alter the strength of the TATL market. TAP Air Portugal is still in flux.

oneworld needs help in continental Europe. Period. Spain is simply not a great connecting hub. Whether SAS also talked to oneworld or not might not ever be publicly known but being an island as a small airline in the middle of a big continent as part of an alliance where there are no strong players might not a very good solution for LOT.

Fully agree they should join Oneworld. Being LH’s unwanted child gives no perspective.

As a Korean, it is very welcome that Busan is included in the list of candidates for new routes. I hope that actual service takes place.

You trying to be a comedian now?

LOT might not succeed at acquiring anything.
So, the conversation goes like this?
LOT: We want some planes.
Boeing: Nope, no planes for you.
LOT: Not even 737?
Boeing: Nope, no planes for you.
LOT: Or the 787?
Boeing: Nope, no planes for you.

I'm sure LOT can acquire planes, maybe not in 2024, but Boeing is definitely selling them planes.

Then, What the fluff Tim?
Air France/KLM won SAS because they bid on a Chapter 11 company. Had nothing to do with JV nor Lufthansa ever made a bid. If Tim Dunn made a very generous bid (and actually have money to do it) I'm sure SAS will join SkyTimAlliance if you say so.

And what is so bad about Spain being a not great connecting hub?
You're not even trying to bullfluff this?

Because the A350 does not exist?

They actually have a non-stop from Seoul to of all places Wroclaw. I'll be in Poland for a week next month but not flying LOT.

Boeing was likely persona non grata. Major falling out due to Boeing not being contractually obligated to provide compensation for the MAX grounding.

LOT first petitioned Boeing to provide the compensation and when unsuccessful, sued. That also was unsuccessful.

To stick it to Boeing, LOT walked away from a pair of fully built 787-9s because delivery delays gave them an out. In retrospect, a decision they now likely regret.

As for expansion, WAW is too small to reach that goal. They must be banking on the solidarity transport hub becoming a reality.

a whole lot went over your head.
1. see the post from SCHH above .
2. pull out a map of Europe and it might be clear why the largest JV hubs are all in northern Europe and why Spain is at a geographic disadvantage
3. look at a ranking of countries in Europe by GDP and it should be even more clear why Spain is at a disadvantage to the UK, Germany and France in the amount of transatlantic air service. AMS has a much TATL service as it does because of geography; and alot of Dutch don't like the idea that their country is used for as much connecting traffic as it supports. Moving that show to MAD makes no sense.
4. add a sprinkle of satire about what I said about Scott Kirby

Agree, given LO hub's location (and with Malev gone 😉 ), would be nice to see them in oneworld. Wondering how much of their operation is based on feeding LH though.

A lot of this looks like pre-election BS (a hotly contested parliamentary election is one week away). They just turned down two 787 which are now rotting in the Mojave desert. Major litigation with Boeing. Who knows if the central hub airport ever materializes.

In general, I agree with Ben. SkyTeam and Star control Central Europe. LHR is the biggest European fortress hub regardless, but MAD seems more regional. I think LOT would be a nice fit for oneworld...oneworld airlines seem to be really lifting their game (except you, IB), and it seems like LOT is doing the same.

However, some of those proposed routes make zero sense. Busan, Colombo, and some of the others?? And the mix of aircraft looks like they'll continue to be more regional/mid-haul.

Thanks for the clarification Tim. Some fluff still made it through but that's an improvement.

1.1 You know that @SCHH says "Boeing" (not LOT) was likely persona non grata.
1.2 LOT might not succeed at acquiring anything.
So, the conversation goes like this?
LOT: We want some planes.
Airbus: Nope, no planes for you.
LOT: Not even A350?
Airbus: Nope, no planes for you.
LOT: Or the A321?
Airbus: Nope, no planes for you.

I'm sure LOT can acquire planes, maybe not in 2024, but Airbus is definitely selling them planes. (Boeing too, but you're just going to argue)

2. I don't think Germany or LH thinks they have a geographic disadvantage over northern Europe. (see SAS). Unless you think the earth is flat.

3. GDP? But when AMS breaks your GDP theory, you fluff about geography. Is GDP even relevant or not. I see Italy too. Or it's the northern geography because Ireland, Iceland, Norway is missing?

4. Finally the comedic non fluff from Tim Dunn.

They have a few interesting routes such as New York to Rzeszow.

Not sure I’d say Almaty and Tashkent are in the Middle East, but it would be nice to have another option for getting to those cities.

Ben, as others have pointed out, everything that comes out of Poland these days should be viewed through the lens of the upcoming parliamentary election, which puts the current ruling parties at risk.
This has prompted the government pull out all the stops in state-owned enterprises to paint a picture of a bright future for Poland. This included a sudden gas price drop in some regions, grandiose project announcements, military helicopter flyovers at campaign rallies and a myriad of other populist BS.

Love the NA expansionm plans and hope it comes to fruition. Also agree OneWorld is a better fit.

At least LOT under PiS will grow and wants to grow and that is great to know .
It all starts with intentions and pre election is the best period to see it .
Haters voting for PO would have LOT sold to Lufthansa dirt cheap as previous government purposely devalued LOT so it would be easier to sell and for less ....Criminal action that was never prosecuted.

sounds to me like a lot of editorial alteration of the conversation on YOUR end.
We don't even know if LOT has any

made any plans to change its procurement of Boeing planes but they clearly need more planes to execute their expansion plans if they come to fruition.
based on the above, LOT has every reason to look elsewhere.
We have no information on what production slots LOT might be asking for at Airbus but you can believe that Airbus would love to flip a Boeing-loyal customer and they can find the relatively few production slots.

I never said LH is at a geographic disadvantage in northern Europe. I did say that losing two former Star airlines and potentially another (TAP) to one or more other alliances has significant strategic implications for LH and Star and, indirectly AC and UA.

It is clear that major US-EU hubs are driven by geography and the size of the local market which dictates the amount of flights that can support the local market.
Given that you can't get the basic facts of the first two points right, I'll leave it to other readers to ponder the role of Spain vs. other hubs for US-EU connections. The simple fact is that Spain plays a very small part in US-EU connections

Is that for a particular Korean-owned factory?
The same reason as Seoul-Prague?

Yup, we're filling up the cannisters while the gas prices are 20% below what they have been until just now.

As a neighboring German I'm saying thanks to the Polish tax payers for subsidizing my fuel!

Interesting article and thought on them joining one world. Unfortunately there frequent flyer program is tied to Lufthansa. I've often wondered why Lufthansa hasn't made a bid to acquire them.

Cool. But the language here is even more vague than Lufthansa’s new business class.

I wish that LOT would join OneWorld!

Is LOT being sold soon? I thought they were in a similar position at TAP Portugal and being sold off!

You don't realize that LOT stopped selling United tickets. Also, on a lot of routes connecting in the USA, LOT is now selling connections on American Airlines despite them being in different alliances. Before this, LOT has had been selling connecting tickets to London through British Airways, or maybe it was the other way around. But basically LOT is already halfway to being in OneWorld.

There is a lot of Korean investment in and around Wroclaw - LG Electronics and LG Energy Solution being the biggest, but plenty others too

You are wrong - the fuel prices were lowered all over Poland 😉 other than that - you are correct.

They are probably looking at Busan because Seoul works out well for them and the economic links between Poland and Korea are strong and getting stronger. There are no European carriers in BUS so this could be a nice niche market for LO. On the other hand LH couldn't make BUS work so this would be even more of a challange for LO. Also - the current bilaterals don't even allow to fly to ICN daily, so BUS is a bit of a stretch.

Sri Lanka is a touristic destination and might work for them, especially as a winter seasonal destination to balance less demand on TATL. LO knows the market as the have been flying charters to CMB.

not much, LO is no OU

Curiously,LOT did start out as One world,or at least in partnership with AA.Just before the pandemic was poised to purchase Condor.The timeline is typically Polish,slow and steady
Not long ago the poor man of the soviet bloc,in less than 20 years Poland has achieved the 6th biggest EU economy.

LOT could merge with Alitalia/ITA and Milan could finally become a hub as it deserves. They should move back to SkyTeam.