Well, this could get pretty interesting pretty quickly…
Continue reading: JetBlue Wants A Merger: United, Alaska, And Southwest, Are Frontrunners
Share your questions, experiences, and thoughts below.
Curious what's going to happen with 25 years of Mosaic 1 status earned through last year's promotion if there's a merger...
Does American have the financial power to pull it off? And how much more work is left in the Alaska/Hawaiian merger?
Maybe someone can explain the math to me of how airlines are making money on coach fares. For those of you so upset that fares might increase.
@ Jacob -- Respectfully, most airlines in the US are losing money, and their cost per air seat mile is higher than their revenue per air seat mile. So it's hard to argue that airfare is unreasonably expensive.
@ dn10 -- With American, it's hard to say, especially given what a fragile time it is.
With Alaska and Hawaiian, I think it's not so much the amount of work left, but instead, acquiring money losing airlines and trying to make them profitable isn't necessarily easy work. Alaska's stock hasn't been performing that great post-merger (even beyond the current crisis), so one wonders if Alaska is as enthusiastic about acquiring another money losing airline. That's especially true when you consider what a well run and profitable operation Alaska was when fully independent, and sticking to its core strengths.
None of the carriers need the whole package of JetBlue.
What is needed is just certain segments of their market strengths, like what has been needed out of all other recent mergers or potential proposed tie ups outside maybe of the Hawaiian Alaska merger.
Anything that results in the death of Noo Yawk's Hometown Airline, I'm in favor of. Until then, remember that Mint is Shint.
Letting UA/B6 merge in places like BOS and FLL while being required to cede a lot of slots to AA at JFK and LGA could be the regulatory compromise.
There are no regulators under this regime. The fox controls the hen house. We can vote in 222 days to change that. Might be wise.
George Nathan Romey… our resident Concierge Key economist… why don’t you do the honors, sir.
You’re probably about to lose it. Classic anti-consumer bait-and-switch. USA! USA! USA!
When I was initiated forty years ago, I did enjoy it. Our Hometown Airline is going to win this and destroy B6 forever.
Keep Mint, better food and beverage, free WiFi, and IFE on most aircraft, and that’ll be a win.
What’ll actually happen is they’ll turn JetBlue into United, and I’ll cry.
I would say that B6 can play hard to get.....play AS and UA off each other. I think UA will ultimately be egotistical and pay way too much for B6 just to keep Alaska off the eastcoast.
I said back then and now....B6 and AS would be the best merger to provide a truly 5th national carrier to compete with the others....this opportunity is now.
They are busy with HA....but most of that is relatively finished with the passenger cutover next month. So perhaps keep thier merger staff busy by saying...ok...your done HA....now do B6.....
I think with the ambitions of AS with thier 787s and already a 321 hawaiian fleet....sorry Alaska...you just may need to not be proudly all boeing to stay relevent and thrive nationally.....
And AA will get thier codeshare back through oneworld alliance....via AS.....
Why the shade at AA? Weren’t they positioning well for this until regulators shut it down in 2023?
@ Sel, D. -- For the past decade, American has been a rudderless ship, and the airline is now paying the price for that. I don't think that's at all shade, it's just reality, and financial results reflect that.
I will accept this, reluctantly, so long as B6 starts serving stroopwaffles… deal??
AA/B6 would obviously create the most value by giving NY a third full-service airline choice
Jetblue's east coast network would be tempting to Alaska, but they're still busy digesting HA. They may join the takeover battle, but I think it'll be just to hurt United by making them pay too much, not to actually acquire the airline.
Why is it the that US based airlines are always in some sort of trouble and need to talk about mergers? You never hear these things coming from Europe.
@Ed you have clearly not been paying attention. Over the last decades most every European airline has come under IAG, Lufthansa or Air France-KLM. Some of the remaining few independent airlines are also looking to merge (TAP coming to mind quickly).
I get the "AS gets east coast hubs" thing, but I'm struggling to see how this works for them. Airlines with bicoastal but no midcontinent hubs struggle to maintain the relevance other airlines have. AS could pick off B6 but how do they get me from IND to MSY without having to fly on AA metal or flying to a coastal hub? In an era where credit card partner deals are constituting the majority of profits for airlines right now, I don't see his wouldn't distract AS more than it's worth in terms of the operational distraction. And, what on earth would AS want with a mini-hub in FLL with AA's hub 30 miles down the road.
Network-wise I agree outside of the FLL/MIA issue that would get broken up. But I don’t think AA can afford B6.
I know this is aviation social media and reality is a casualty of some people's fantasies but let's get just a tad back to earth:
1. It is very notable that JBLU realizes that, after just 25 years, it can't compete even given that it was gifted its original set of JFK slots w/ the promise of it bringing a new era to travel.
2.. This is a report of who JBLU THINKS might make a merger partner, not who might actually be interested. As long as JBLU is still a publicly traded company (which it is), it has to entertain all offers.
3. JBLU is deeply in debt; none of the airlines mentioned as potential candidates have the capacity to take on JBLU's $7.3 billion in net debt on revenue that is little more than that. JBLU would like someone to buy it but that doesn't mean the economics of buying JBLU are not going to work for any carrier.
4. As much as some people would love to see JBLU carved up between multiple carriers, the DOJ simply does not operate that way esp. in a limited access market like NYC.
5. The common denominator for all of JBLU's markets is Delta which has succeeded in less than 25 years to marginalize JBLU in every one of JBLU's markets. Not a single possible acquirer of JBLU has demonstrated that it can win in a competitive contest with Delta in a DL strength market- NONE.
6. UA, of all candidates, is highly problematic from a competitive standpoint. The very same people that argue about UA's size in NYC try to argue that LGA and JFK are different markets than EWR. Nobody with half a brain is moved and neither will be the DOJ or any of a number of states that could file to block a merger.
7. The most likely scenario is that JBLU just dies on the vine and its assets are made available to other carriers in pieces rather than selling the company in a block to any competitor.
The biggest beneficiary is likely to be the carrier that helped put JBLU in the position where it is now - Delta.
Just check back in a few years to see where it ends up.
For NYC-area, AA already is 3rd (even though some folks really like to trash them on here); B6 is basically 4th. WN basically gave up (other than LGA); Spirit is really struggling.
BOS is my home airport. I’ve been hoping someone would take over JetBlue. It would be nice to have an airline in Boston that could compete with Delta.
Why does every post of yours turn into why Delta is great and everyone else sucks?
Delta has been handed a monopoly in New York, which the government needs to check.
Delta’s LGA/JFK dominance is NOT good for the industry.
Seriously Ed?
The European market is the most monopolistic aviation industry in the World!
Have you heard of IAG/Lufthansa Group?!
This is one of the dumbest comments I have seen out of someone not named Tim Dunn!
I’m not worried about rising air fares. The price of air travel hasn’t kept up with inflation.
If you think that is acceptable, you don’t deserve to fly.
America is obsessed with $99 fares to Florida.
no, Delta hasn't been handed a monopoly in NYC or BOS.
When AA was arguing for slots to be eliminated at LGA and JFK, DL added flights ON ITS OWN; B6 picked up that it could add flights as DL was doing when slot controls were lifted but DL simply moved faster.
And it is laughable that people think that DL has a monopoly when it has a lower share of traffic at LGA and JFK than UA has at EWR or AA has at DCA.
and let's keep in mind that LGA and DCA are perimeter restricted.
As for BOS, B6 took its foot off the gas post covid and DL has used every gate it could get its hands on.
DL wasn't given anything. It simply stayed focused on growing.
Competition is good for everyone - which is why AS and WN are the only airlines that would add more competition to the NE.
Problem is that none of the airlines mentioned have demonstrated that they can win in a contest with DL - that is just a fact.
and as much as some people want to believe otherwise, the history of failing US airlines is that they go through some form of restructuring - and that will be the case here. B6 simply has too much debt for anyone to buy them in whole. and you don't start lopping off assets if you think the company has some sort of future.
and the history is that the airlines that competed with failing airlines continue to get stronger.
Let's remember that at one time ATL was a divided market and DL simply outlasted EA, FL, and WN. that will play out in NYC and BOS no matter how much salivating will take place by others
and let's keep in mind that B6 might realize that allowing UA into JFK makes no competitive sense or someone else might do a deal which can pass regulatory muster - and UA could end up w/ nothing at JFK once again.
If a suitor (outright buyer or merger partner) doesn't emerge, I wonder if JetBlue would have to take the PanAm route to the graveyard by selling off pieces and routes until it finally dies.
Aww, fluffy Timmy brags about DL outlasting WN FL in ATL.
So AA outlasted DL in DFW?
I remember back when Alaska acquired Virgin America and JetBlue was upset that they didn't take over Virgin. JetBlue is an acquisition target. I wonder if things would have been different if JetBlue took over Virgin.
Tim, I don’t agree with a lot of your points but the easiest to refute is your argument that “ common denominator for all of JBLU's markets is Delta” - JetBlue’s hub at Fort Lauderdale only has serious competition from AA (at MIA) and Southwest - not from Delta in Southern Florida.
Im not privy to the rules and regulations. But could a non US airline step in and buy JetBlue?seems like that would be a valuable merger.
Has to be 51% American owned - it’s why Branson couldn’t fully own Virgin America.
Respectfully, Ben, is that accurate? I’m not saying that airfare is unreasonably priced—it’s plummeted when adjusted for inflation. But in 2025, DL, UA, WN, AS (including HA), SY, and even AA finished the year with positive net income. The net losers were F9, B6, G4, and NK. So I don’t think we can say most airlines are losing money. Maybe in Q1 only or after Iran War costs start affecting CASM.
@ EasyMoney -- A large percentage of those profits some from loyalty programs, since that's the name of the game for airlines nowadays. When you compare passenger revenue per available seat mile to cost per available seat mile, it looks very different.
Aside from it being ironic, it wouldn't be that bad of an idea.
Almost no route overlap and significant fleet commonality would make it appealing to the operation and the Feds.
Breeze doesn't exactly have the cash but when you have $7B+ in debt you can't expect much.
The main issue I see with AS+B6 is they would still lack any strength in the middle of the country; similar to US+HP.
Steven,
the difference is that, other than the slot swap, DL grew NYC organically including by using times when the FAA removed slot controls at LGA and JFK post covid. DL did not and has not tried to acquire anything of significance in NYC post slot swap.
and DL still does not have more than 50% of slots, passengers or flights at any NYC airport - but still is the largest federal slot holder in the country.
DL fairly rapidly built BOS after covid when B6 toyed w/ other fascinations - and did it without a merger or acquisition.
And, I didn't say that DL is the largest carrier in S. Florida but it is the largest legacy carrier at PBI and FLL and 2nd at MIA
There is very little in US antitrust law or practice that can stop a company from legally growing organically. There is a whole lot that can stop a company from acquiring another company after they have already grown as large as they are.
There is very little appetite for allowing the top 3 in any industry to grow further by acquisition, esp. in a direct consumer facing industry.
It is pure fantasy to even believe that any airline can or will acquire B6 w/o a trip through chapter 11 although that is exactly what B6 wants.
It is even more fanciful to think that UA would ever be allowed to acquire even 50% of B6 even after a chapter 11 reorganization.
and there is a very strong possibility that B6 will decide that it makes no sense to give UA any access to JFK because UA will compete at JFK in some of B6' best markets.
JetBlue has managed in 25 years to fail to figure out how to run a viable business in a very competitive business in very competitive markets which is about the shortest time from launch to failure for a top 10 US airline. They want to salvage as much as they can via a direct acquisition but the chances are high they will have to make a trip through bankruptcy - and the outcome beyond that is far from clear.
and if fuel remains high for most of 2026, let alone into 2027, every other airline will be weaker and far less focused on acquiring anyone else.
Scenario -- $175 oil bankrupts AA and B6, Doug Parker returns to AA, AA and B6 merge as part of bankruptcy restructuring. Another airline destroyed by America West management.
If oil is $175+/barrel for a prolonged period, bankruptcy will come for many businesses and individuals, not just airlines, and regardless of who’s in-charge.
You sad one-trick pony. This one-liner gate-keeping nonsense is nearly all you ever say. Folks can have opinions without being experts. Get over yourself. “Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
well said, 1990
more significantly, multiple airlines would end up in bankruptcy reorganization - likely chapter 11 reorganization rather than chapter 7 liquidation - but capacity will leave the system and a lot of capacity that is being flown now won't last at sustained high fuel costs -which means there is little to no incentive for another airline to buy even parts of a failing airline - most of whose capacity doesn't make money even at their current costs.
and at some point, the question is whether the government steps in but, unlike w/ covid, there are airlines that can survive even if they have to take on additional debt. and the same is true for other transportation companies. This would not be the same thing as large scale demand destruction as happened in covid or 9/11.
DL and WN have the best balance sheets in the industry and whether Kirby wants to admit it or not, DL has the greatest overlap w/ the weakest players - NK and B6 - so is most likely to pick up whatever demand lies above B6 or DL's costs. No one else is going to be able to move fast enough to capture than demand.
Said it before but Alaska won't even submit a bid for B6. Suncountry literally invited them for direct acquisition and they weren't interested - which I feel would have made much more sense for AS than B6.
I agree that AA probably would gain the most but UA hasn't been shy about making it clear they want it
So a JetBlue - Spirit merger was too anticompetitive but a JetBlue - United merger could be on the table...make it make sense.
man... i know DL is complaining about their SEA numbers now, but if this goes through with AS... yike
I'll keep saying, on a recent trip my SFO-BOS B6 Mint leg had better food and service than my TPAC KIX-SFO United Polaris leg.
I would be upset as well if Mint was reduced in any way. The throne seat was great as well.
you do realize this will flip what is happening with AS in SEA so that AS is the "foreigner" in DL's strength markets?
And, in case you missed it, DL's margins have consistently been much higher than AS' and, because of DL's size, DL's actual profits are much higher than AS'
AS is run by people smart enough to know that they can't win against DL - the two actually coexist quite well as much as some people want to believe it is lopsided in one direction or another.
There isn't a CEO at any other US airline that doesn't realize how much trouble DL could give them by stepping on DL's toes.
People love to talk about DL's "monopoly hubs" without admitting that DL has very patiently but consistently grown those hubs even while growing its share in large coastal markets.
You can dream as much as you want otherwise but the most likely scenario is that B6' demise will be drawn and DL will simply be stronger in NYC and BOS and maybe FLL in 3 to 5 years.
the notion that someone is going to swoop in and save B6 is devoid from actual history of the US airline industry w/ no evidence to believe anything has changed.
As a former JetBlue employee, this is sad but inevitable given the high-cost of the bases, operational challenges and inefficient internal financial controls(money was always loose when it came to marketing and side hustles like Paisely).
Southwest is pushing for international expansion options internally since they’re reaching a growth plateau in US and are on a streak to “premiumify” the 50+ year airline so they’ll be willing to bite the bullet on mixed fleet(have to for international anyway). I do think there’ll be a likely bidding war between UA and Southwest. UA will have more regulatory challenges than Southwest.
Alaska is still getting used to having its name be relevant and make sense internationally or across non-west coast of US since their Hawaiian purchase - they fired nearly 50% of Hawaiian employees who had valuable wide-body expertise and are going to be a real pickle if they can’t get margins right and execute operationally on the international routes.
In summary: UA and DL have lots of targets on their back due to their successful moats, AA is in a deep hole, ALK is discovering itself, WN is on a margin-growth mission to shed LCC status and ULCCs are busy hanging on to dear life.
One merger eliminates a LCC while the other doesn’t. Plus change in administration
They can only own up to 49%, and Lufthansa is probably the only foreign airline where it could make sense, and they already had a 20% investment that they bought in 2007 and sold in 2015.
BA/IAG and AFKLM already have partners at JFK so don’t really need JB as a partner.
You forget about KLM, Swissair, Austrian and SAS from 1990-2010, and the entire lifespans of Alitalia and TAP.
Europe now has a much more bifurcated market of continental LCCs and global multibrand airline groups.
AS buying b6 would be antithetcial to their strategy of entrenchment. I don't see it unless they get a bargain like they did with Hawaiian. The virgin merger was a colossal waste of money where they have shed all of the assets they purchased for no perceptible gain. They don't want to compete in markets so why would this be any different?
UA would be buying slots, but that's what they want.
First, this is just a think tank putting this together. While I don't doubt that B6 is looking to do something, and UA is certainly keeping in touch, it's all just speculation at this point. Think of the think tank like if Tim Dunn was actually paid to post all he does everywhere. Semafor was started by an ex-BuzzFeed exec, so take things with a grain of salt. I don't think they are saying anything else that no else has already thought of as being possible. UA and B6? Duh. Southwest? Interesting in the market segment perspective, but probably a non-starter. Alaska? Sure, I know they are in a merger, but when there's a will, there's a way. AA? Why not. Delta? Besides what our resident cheerleader would say, anything is on the table.
In that vein, I'll put my hat in to the ring, calling it now. B6 merges with AA, but it's a reverse merger to get Isom and the board at AA out of the picture.
1990, you are such a bore. What would happen to the 350k points if they go out of business? What happened to, for example, the loyalty program of the former Alitalia, with strict EU regulations, and even being partially government owned (or fully, who knows for sure in Italy)? What about airlines that LH purchased over the years in the EU?
I disagree a bit with Ben. United already has Airbus equipment. A United merger would give UA a FLL hub and a presence in Florida which currently is weak for UA. Not all Florida pax are leisure either. It would also give UA a JFK presence as well as more service out of BOS.
Also I can see Alaska here as well. A quality airline acquiring another quality airline would be a great thing for travelers on both coasts and Florida as well. I think AS could handle the merger.
The most likely outcome IMHO is a carve out to various companies to get it by DOJ. Sort of like United got PA's Pacific, LHR and South America Routes. DL got Europe and FRA Hub and the Shuttle. AA initially got TW LHR Hub and then then bought the rest of the airline in a deal which closed just before 9/11.
JFK - United is most likely to fight hard to get a decent number of slots as we know Kirby has frequently stated he wants UA to be there. American could probably take some and Delta as well. Since UA has no presence they have a strong case. Maybe AS but it sounds like they are still digesting Hawaiian.
LGA would be be a toss up - AA/DL. AA and UA are in the the same terminal at LGA as jetBlue so operationally that makes sense.
BOS - Probably mainly going to AA or DL.
Florida - Possibly UA might be interested in some additional routes. Maybe SW? Frontier and Spirit don't seem to to be be in a great financial place but I am not an airline analyst.
I would be surprised if anyone would be able to secure approval for a full buyout, or if anyone would want to, but the only candidates who could probably stomach this are UA or DL.
Why 2 all-Boeing airlines mentioned, and you think Alaska is fine getting airbus, but the bigger one, Southwest, will have logistics problems?? Do you know what you wrote?
Southwest can gain NYC market significantly if they acquire JetBlue, and they are big enough to absorb JetBlue. The best candidate is Southwest, not Alaska.
Oh my God. United is big enough. Alaska is big enough. Let SW or a smaller airline merge with Jetblue.
JetBlue I think is a superior airline in terms of hard and soft product so it will downgrade if merged. I agree that the best way is to divide it among major airlines in a strategic manner.
Agree with you 100%. Just wrote with a tip to my AG the other day. The DOJ may not protect us, but state Attorney General still can