American & JetBlue Call Off Partnership Talks: What's Next?

Can someone explain what's going on with JetBlue and what exactly is their vision/strategy here?

How exactly did they collapse so hard in the past few years?

I would not like a UA/B6 tie-up as that is too monopolistic. And it's interesting that B6 has been partnering more with OW airlines like BA and JAL recently, there was even a recent fiasco where B6 was handing out JAL F awards like hotcakes

Probably just AA posturing to get better terms. It makes too much sense for it to not happen.

Terminal 6 at JFK will be coming online soon. And, it will have a direct connection to T5 which is JetBlue. Is JetBlue focused on teaming up with the foreign carriers that will occupy T6. JetBlue could provide domestic connects. Therefore, it’s in no hurry to run back into the arms of AA.

JetBlue is nearly dead. It needs help. If not American, then United or Alaska. Alaska is not going to bite so that leaves United. If JetBlue dies, it is Biden's fault. His people could have ok'ed it.

What it means is that AA's JFK/TATL strategy has failed. It needs to start using its JFK slots for more TATL traffic (instead of bone-headed PHL) and domestic routes. Just as Raja's revenue strategy failed, so has Znotins' network strategy.

That's because they're in merger talks. One poor airline trying to acquire another smh.

Trump has the ability to do something right now. He could pick up the phone right now. And, he's chosen not to.

They have 210 slot pairs (should be enough for 105 daily flights) yet fly ~80-100 flights daily at JFK. They can basically add a net new of 5-10 flights at JFK without any removals although there probably would be restrictions on what times those flights would be. Hopefully with the new B789Ps and A321XLRs there's more international TATL routes.

Waiting for your comments on the incident in AA950 on the 24th if you need details, email me

AA should expand more at JFK and LGA, perhaps by launching more long-haul flights from JFK. Perhaps SLC would be a good idea; it's the only hub that doesn't have flights to JFK.

Pretty much this. United has so little presence in BOS, JFK, FLL that the B6 network is very complimentary.

And T6 is mostly non-alliance and Star Alliance carriers. Really the big players there will be the Lufthansa group and Cathay.

They could stay non-alliance but build some decent interline agreements with some of the Star partners.

It felt like the Qatar, BA, and JAL ties (along with Hawaiian) were leaning to OW.

But they also added Icelandair and TAP recently, and Etihad last year. It feels more like they are just trying to go the old Alaska route of building a non-alliance interest in their loyalty program. The JAL tie is only for redemption. BA is only a limited partnership with no earn/burn possibilities.

I've wondered whether they would try to build a relationship with Condor, as that one has worked for Alaska.

I’ve always seen Merritt to a B6 and UA agreement of some sort if UA wants to go back into JFK. With B6 shrinking at JFK for more profitable routes I wonder if they would be interested in selling off some slots to UA and starting some sort of partnership? As said before, there’s some good merits to a potential partnership in terms of the network. I personally just hope that they don’t flat out buy B6 as I would hate to see them go. What I want is something that can help B6 become profitable again, and also give their flyers more options

Cultist

It's not the President's job to negotiate mergers. He is busy at the moment. Alaska seems to benefit with its OW/AA alliance. Surprised B6 doesn't see the same bennifits. I enjoyed the NEA when it existed.

This is partly because Alaska and American barely compete with each other. American has all but exited the PNW, and Alaska barely flies anywhere east. The only overlap really is LAX. JetBlue and American somehow needed to compete with each other while collaborating with each other in a market both desperately want. Seems ripe for conflict

Clock is ticking - if AA wants to truly be a major player in the northeast (NYC/BOS) they need to takeover B6.

If they do not do anything with B6 then they should give their LGA/JFK slot portfolio mix a hard look if growth is what they are after. You can’t grow LGA with its perimeter restrictions - JFK is where they can truly grow in the market.

Otherwise UA/DL/B6 will continue to erode AA’s market share in the northeast and by a lesser extent the mid-Atlantic market.

My hunch is that JetBlue is looking for an acquisition partner as it's being squeezed between ULCCs and legacy carriers. Now who and would it pass DOJ muster?

@Brian W
Busy playing golf and tweeting, the Convict in Chief doesn't actually work. Making fries at Mickey D's last October is the most work he's ever done in his life.

So if B6 dies, then it's Biden's fault? Another positive on his ledger, then.

Looking like UA will be the partner. AA didn't really help B6 at all and saying goodbye for good to them will be a benefit. UA is on the rise and they don't serve JFK and are not that strong in BOS/South Florida and so the partnership between the two would be mutually beneficial. It would also greatly improve FF options for B6's premium passengers in California. Working with some UA partners like the LH group--soon to be moving into JFK T-6 would again be mutually beneficial. This would be by far the best domestic mutually beneficial partnership and keep B6 as a stand alone carrier.

This doesn’t address the AA side of the equation, but for B6 I feel that an AS alignment would make a lot of business sense. (I get that AS in in the midst of their HA acquisition so has competing priorities though.) They have complementary route networks - focusing on West coast (AS/HA), Northeast (B6) and Florida (B6), AS can provide B6 feed for its transatlantic flights, B6 can provide AS feed for its APAC ambitions. Not sure what this would mean for AS/AA partnership though.

That's too bad. I really enjoyed the connectivity with the Northeast Alliance, and AA + B6 had a great combination of transcontinental flights with premium seating from LAX. Now that they've separated, AA isn't picking those routes back up, almost forcing a transition to other carriers. I feel like AA was the big loser in this separation.