It sure has been quite the 24 hours when it comes to JetBlue and its potential partnerships. We’ve known that JetBlue has been looking for a domestic airline partner, and yesterday, and it seemed like either American or United would be the best fit.
Yesterday, American revealed it was no longer in discussions with JetBlue about a possible partnership, leading many of us to believe that a United partnership (or something) was incoming. Well, that’s basically now confirmed.
In this post:
What we know about planned JetBlue & United partnership
During JetBlue’s Q1 2025 earnings call today, President Marty St. George was asked about domestic airline partnerships, and he suggested that JetBlue was very close to announcing such a deal, and it would include frequent flyer reciprocity. Specifically, he said the following:
“I need to make sure I reserve my comments based on what we have said publicly. And what we have said is we are looking at and we’re talking to multiple airlines about domestic partnerships. I think we’re getting very close to making announcement, expect to make the announcement this quarter. And as far as the benefits that we expect to offer to our customers, now the most important thing is number one, a significantly higher network opportunity for earn and burn of TrueBlue points, which we think greatly improves utility of TrueBlue.”
“Today, if you are a customer in the Northeast and you love JetBlue for leisure, but, you know, twice a year, you have to go to Omaha or Boise, these are places that you can’t earn through Blue points on now. And when this partnership goes forward, you will be able to. And the second thing is I’m really excited for just the overall broadening of the network opportunities, you know, not just connectivity, but also just sort of better opportunities for our customers to fly more places with more frequency.”
Reuters is now reporting that JetBlue and United are actively negotiating a partnership, according to several industry sources. For now, the partnership is expected to be about providing greater connectivity to customers, and allowing them to earn and redeem frequent flyer points across the two carriers.
For now, the two companies apparently aren’t planning on partnering more closely than that, so there won’t be coordinating of schedules or pricing. Based on what we know about the partnership being proposed, this shouldn’t face any sort of regulatory challenges. It’s also worth emphasizing that it’s not finalized yet, so things could still change.
I’m a little confused about the merit of this arrangement
The way I view it, a partnership like this will have very little impact on the bottom line of either carrier. I’d say that United has more to gain than JetBlue, though.
Looking at it from United’s perspective, I guess this prevents JetBlue from partnering with another US airline, so that helps United’s competitive position.
United is part of the Star Alliance transatlantic joint venture, and perhaps there’s some opportunity for more connectivity in Boston (BOS) and New York (JFK) between JetBlue and United’s partners (Austrian, Lufthansa, SWISS, etc.). I’m not sure how exactly the joint venture is structured, as it doesn’t seem like that would lead to much revenue for United.
Sure, maybe being able to earn and redeem points on JetBlue makes United MileagePlus a bit more appealing, though I don’t think that would be any sort of a game changer. Quite to the contrary, I’d view the loyalty aspect of this as a zero sum game, since it’s not like the carriers are particularly complementary otherwise.
Furthermore, United doesn’t actually want its MileagePlus members flying JetBlue instead of United, since it’s not like there would be a revenue sharing agreement. The carriers’ networks just don’t cross paths in many places in a way that’s useful for travelers.
Perhaps this is even more puzzling from JetBlue’s perspective, because keep in mind that JetBlue seemingly turned down American in favor of United. American’s partnership with JetBlue was great for consumers, and made sense commercially, as it allowed JetBlue to provide feed for American’s long haul flights in New York and beyond, a win-win arrangement.
From a loyalty perspective, I’m also not convinced that this would hugely benefit JetBlue. If anything, it’s more likely that someone who flies JetBlue every once in a while would be engaged in United MileagePlus, if they could credit their JetBlue flights there.
So I’m sort of scratching my head. I’m sure there’s a good reason for this partnership being pursued, and I bet we’ll find out soon. I just don’t see the vision yet.
The only thing I can come up with is that this is intended to be a first step toward closer long term collaboration between the two airlines, where we do start to see an attempt at coordinating flights, or even more than that. But that would also potentially face regulatory concerns.
Bottom line
It’s basically confirmed that JetBlue and United are currently negotiating a partnership, and that something will be announced in the coming weeks. The plan is reportedly to make this largely about frequent flyer reciprocity, so that members of both programs can earn and redeem points across both airlines.
However, I have to imagine that there will be more to this partnership, or that there’s at least a bigger goal in the long run. After all, based on what we know so far, this doesn’t fulfill United CEO Scott Kirby’s dream of the airline returning to JFK. It also doesn’t seem better for JetBlue than a partnership with American.
What do you make of JetBlue and United pursuing a partnership?
I think the rationale for these kind of agreements/mergers is pretty straight forward - even if it doesn't add to the bottom line of the larger company doing the purchasing/pulling the strings (UA), it takes the smaller purchased carrier (B6) off the market. And in turn, stifles any of the larger carriers main competitors (eg AA, DL, AS) expanding by getting their hands on JetBlue.
United has wanted a way back into JFK for some years now. This may be an attempt at that.
It's quite possible that United and JetBlue are forming a partnership simply to form a partnership. Why does there have to be an ulterior motive or a hidden agenda?
United and JetBlue are both for-profit enterprises in a capitalist society.
That's how the world works. And I am completely at ease with it. For example, I know I'm not George Clooney. I'm not even Brad Karp. So, when a woman dates me, even though she will not say it...
United and JetBlue are both for-profit enterprises in a capitalist society.
That's how the world works. And I am completely at ease with it. For example, I know I'm not George Clooney. I'm not even Brad Karp. So, when a woman dates me, even though she will not say it outright, I know a motivating factor is my socioeconomic status--my position in society as an equity partner at a top grossing law firm. That compensates for my appearance, which--I shall emphasize--while it won't make the front cover of GQ, is plenty adequate in consort with my charm and charisma which are instrumental to my success as a law firm partner.
This guy must lead a very sad life. No one in that situation mentions it so often to internet strangers on a blog where it’s not even relevant.
Literally everyone predicted this everyone in the comment stop pretending you are some sort of persecuted soothsayer
Where does United want to fly from JFK? LAX, SFO, maybe ORD, IAH? Does it also want a LHR flight? 11 landing slots? Or let JetBlue fly ORD and IAH so United has 7 landing slots?
They only need LAX and SFO. All their other hubs go to LGA, which is better than JFK.
It's all dependent on the details, and UA/B6 know that of course. They could bracket NYC between JFK and EWR. UA would likely return to JFK for transcontinental and select markets with B6 slots. That, along with loyalty reciprocation, could provide some feed for B6 not so great TATL routes, which are minimal enough not to affect UAs EWR operation. B6s Florida operation will also help UA.
DL is strong enough at JFK and LGA...
It's all dependent on the details, and UA/B6 know that of course. They could bracket NYC between JFK and EWR. UA would likely return to JFK for transcontinental and select markets with B6 slots. That, along with loyalty reciprocation, could provide some feed for B6 not so great TATL routes, which are minimal enough not to affect UAs EWR operation. B6s Florida operation will also help UA.
DL is strong enough at JFK and LGA that they'll be fine.
The one that will lose is AA. Getting the oneworld alliance mostly consolidated at T8 helps, but they don't have a robust feeder network. Maybe oneworld is just all about O/D from NYC? Of all markets, along with LAX, I guess that could work?
You seem to conveniently forget that JetBlue was getting the short end of the stick with the NEA. According to the lawsuit filed by the DOJ, JetBlue ended up owing more money to American Airlines than vice versa. So yeah, JetBlue got LGA slots but at what cost? They owes American money and were playing to be their regional airline. That is not a good business move for JetBlue. And I’m glad Auntie Jojo undid that NEA mistake.
This seems pretty simple to me Ben: There are a lot of fliers in BOS, JFK/LGA, and FLL that would maybe like to be loyal to JB but don't because it can't get them to a lot of destinations. Now it can via UA hubs. That levels the playing field for JB vs. DL (BOS, JFK/LGA) and AA (MIA). UA gets to tap a lot of passengers in those same places that otherwise wouldn't even...
This seems pretty simple to me Ben: There are a lot of fliers in BOS, JFK/LGA, and FLL that would maybe like to be loyal to JB but don't because it can't get them to a lot of destinations. Now it can via UA hubs. That levels the playing field for JB vs. DL (BOS, JFK/LGA) and AA (MIA). UA gets to tap a lot of passengers in those same places that otherwise wouldn't even consider UA, especially for international trips. In east NYC you might even get fliers who use JB for regular trips out of LGA or JFK, but are willing to cross over to EWR for a big international trip from time to time.
As far as JFK, UA may or may not lease slots from JB, but it doesn’t really matter. UA loses the loyalty of some West Coast fliers (and corporate contracts) because they can’t get them to Long Island nonstop, but now those fliers can just use JB (and Mint) for those flights.
Well played UA. But, the JFK angle is vastly overblown. It's the belief of extremely online incels who think they know the NYC market. Ben, I know you're not an incel and your online activity (i.e. blog posts) generate net revenue, so it's surprising to see you harp up the JFK angle.
Because UA has EWR, they don't need JFK. Period. Full stop. I will start with very simple facts. I pulled these numbers...
Well played UA. But, the JFK angle is vastly overblown. It's the belief of extremely online incels who think they know the NYC market. Ben, I know you're not an incel and your online activity (i.e. blog posts) generate net revenue, so it's surprising to see you harp up the JFK angle.
Because UA has EWR, they don't need JFK. Period. Full stop. I will start with very simple facts. I pulled these numbers from Google Maps just now.
1 Manhattan West to EWR: 21 minutes
1 Manhattan West to JFK: 35 minutes
Tribeca to EWR: 19 minutes
Tribeca to JFK: 35 minutes
Upper West Side to EWR: 34 minutes
Upper West Side to JFK: 35 minutes
Let me contextualize these locations for those unfamiliar with NYC. Virtually all high-income people work near, or literally in, Hudson Yards/Manhattan West. This neighborhood has the highest commercial rent in all of Manhattan meaning only the most prestigious and profitable firms can afford to lease offices there. Virtually all wealthy people live in Tribeca (or the adjacent West Village) if they don't have kids and the Upper West Side if they do. Note that in all cases EWR is a closer in airport.
The customers who would fly UA out of JFK instead of EWR, ceteris paribus, are poorer and lower class.
Yeah, virtually all investment banks and a vast majority of law firms are still in Midtown East…
But I get it, it’s only because the likes of JPM or law firms with higher PEP than Skadden (like Davis Polk) cannot afford to be in Hudson Yards.
Investment banking is a stepping stone to private equity which redefines what it means to be high income. Jamie Dimon makes $40 million a year while the co-CEOs of KKR, which is in Hudson Yards, make over $500m. Each. That's right, over half a billion dollars a year.
Law firm profit per equity partner is a metric that can be gamed by, for example, cheaping out on office rent. In all seriousness Davis Polk is...
Investment banking is a stepping stone to private equity which redefines what it means to be high income. Jamie Dimon makes $40 million a year while the co-CEOs of KKR, which is in Hudson Yards, make over $500m. Each. That's right, over half a billion dollars a year.
Law firm profit per equity partner is a metric that can be gamed by, for example, cheaping out on office rent. In all seriousness Davis Polk is an excellent firm, and Midtown East near Grand Central is a logical place to have an office, but--trust me on this--Skadden is better. Do I have any data? Well what kind of lawyer would I be if I didn't. The Vault rankings, which are based on surveys of associates, put Skadden comfortably above Davis Polk.
As an aside let's query Google Maps again
Davis Polk offices to EWR: 35 min
Davis Polk offices to JFK: 32 min
However, note three things. One, there's a closure on a New Jersey highway right this moment which means the current travel time is higher than normal. Two, those numbers do not reflect any choice of terminal. For JFK, if you specify Terminal 4, where Delta is, then the current travel time is quoted at 36 minutes.
Anyway, Skadden has never been the most profitable firm, but--now I know I'm not the first person to claim this--it's not all about the money. Is there anything you can do in life with $7 million a year that you cannot also do at $6 million? The people you work with outweigh any consideration at those margins. Skadden doesn't just have the most amazing lawyers. Skadden has the most amazing people.
Seek help.
I don’t think the JFK play is about point to point domestic travel. It’s about connecting to the rest of the world where the star alliance partners fly.
So happy if this goes through, as a 1K I use United as my main carrier, but being able to earn on JetBlue really opens up a lot more options, especially since all my routes involve connections through a hub, when there are times I've had to fly Jetblue due to the nonstop option, or because they actually have a decent florida presence
Locking in B6 is a masterclass move by UA. Gotta imagine AA and DL are licking their wounds here given their weaknesses in the Northeast and Florida, respectively. Nicely played to UA management!
In what way are AA/DL weak in the Northeast and Florida?
AA has PHL/DCA (if you consider DC the Northeast) strongholds + a moderate presence at JFK/LGA/BOS, with the ability to ramp up at JFK if they so desired.
DL also has sizeable Florida operations like longhaul flights out of MCO and TPA. Even MIA gets specialty non-hub routes like HAV and DCA. DL is certainly much larger than UA in Florida.
If anything UA...
In what way are AA/DL weak in the Northeast and Florida?
AA has PHL/DCA (if you consider DC the Northeast) strongholds + a moderate presence at JFK/LGA/BOS, with the ability to ramp up at JFK if they so desired.
DL also has sizeable Florida operations like longhaul flights out of MCO and TPA. Even MIA gets specialty non-hub routes like HAV and DCA. DL is certainly much larger than UA in Florida.
If anything UA was the weakest of the three in the Northeast/Florida, which is exactly why they wanted this.
. . . even assuming arguendo that everything you wrote is true, your post only serves to underscore the point that locking in B6 is a masterclass move by UA and AA and DL are licking their wounds, so thanks for that I guess lol
I'm pointing out your pseudointellectual claim is based entirely on a flawed premise.
The reality is that UA was the weakest in those markets you alluded to, and precisely why they went for this partnership.
No one has any idea how this partnership will actually pan out, so no one is "licking their wounds". It's entirely possible that this all amounts to very little. Absolutely nothing you said was grounded in factual basis.
oh got it, so this is about defending the dignity of one of AA/DL. AA doesn't really have deranged stans, so you're just another DL lickspittle with a grievance. if i'd realized you're a mentee of the guy who's blocked i would have ignored from the start, so thanks for clearing that up haha
Is AA able to ramp up JFK if they wanted? I know they have the terminal space but didn’t know they had the take off / landing slots
Why in the world would they mention Omaha as if anyone cares about flying there and like it’s a high yield market? lol I’m guessing they tried to fool people into thinking it was Southwest.
As a very occasional JetBlue flyer, I would love to credit my flights to United. It would encourage me to fly JetBlue more. So perhaps there is an upside to JetBlue in that way.
Yeah it doesn't seem to make any sense at all. In spite of what the B6 CEO said, UA doesn't fly to Boise or Omaha from BOS, JFK, or FLL/MIA. The only overlap within the same catchment is EWR, which is not the same as JFK/LGA. I guess maybe more BOS/JFK feed into UA's TPAC flights for LAX/SFO?
The only upside I see as a flyer is more redemption options for Polaris w/ JetBlue points?...
Yeah it doesn't seem to make any sense at all. In spite of what the B6 CEO said, UA doesn't fly to Boise or Omaha from BOS, JFK, or FLL/MIA. The only overlap within the same catchment is EWR, which is not the same as JFK/LGA. I guess maybe more BOS/JFK feed into UA's TPAC flights for LAX/SFO?
The only upside I see as a flyer is more redemption options for Polaris w/ JetBlue points? Even then UA has been cracking down hard on partners and Aeroplan increased the UA redemptions quite significantly.
This is all about JFK.
@ 54austin -- Which is of course what I think, but I don't see how anything happens at JFK without some sort of an agreement that requires substantial regulatory approval.
Could be a simple codeshare and FFP agreement. Overtime B6 can start flights to UA hubs to feed some of their flights. B6 codeshares with TK, QR, EY, MS etc so it would be something similar. B6 can also start selling UA flights and get the codeshare commission.
Ha! I called this weeks ago and person after person responded how stupid and uninformed I was...
You (nor anyone else) most definitely didn't call it as long ago as -I- did and you cant imagine the kinda shit I took for it :D