LOT Polish Airlines is cutting its only remaining long haul route from Budapest, representing the carrier’s last fifth freedom route.
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LOT Polish Airlines cuts Budapest to Seoul Incheon route
While LOT Polish Airlines is based in (you guessed it!) Poland, several years ago the carrier began an interesting project, whereby it launched long haul flights from Hungary. Hungary hasn’t had a national carrier since Malév Hungarian Airlines ceased operations in 2012, and obviously the Star Alliance airline saw some potential there.
Back in 2018, LOT launched routes from Budapest (BUD) to Chicago (ORD), Newark (EWR), and New York (JFK), intended to tap into demand in those markets, which was otherwise unserved. Then in 2019, the airline also launched a route from there to Seoul Incheon (ICN).
While the United States routes have been cut in the meantime, the Seoul Incheon flight has operated… until now. The airline has now revealed plans to cancel this 2x weekly service as of March 26, 2025. While LOT is describing this as a temporary suspension, the flight has been completely removed from the schedule, so I wouldn’t count on it coming back.
With this cut, it also means that LOT will no longer fly long haul from Budapest. The carrier is instead using the plane to increase frequencies to Seoul Incheon out of Warsaw (WAW), as that route will increase from 4x weekly to 6x weekly.
In fairness, the route between Budapest and Seoul Incheon has also been served by Korean Air since late 2022, and the airline operates the service 4x weekly, so LOT has had quite some competition there.
European Union airlines don’t use Open Skies much
In 2008, the European Union adapted an Open Skies policy, initially with the United States. At the time, this was pretty revolutionary, and many believed it would permanently change aviation. It meant that European Union airlines could operate long haul flights from any European Union country to any other Open Skies country, totally liberalizing air traffic restrictions.
At first we saw airlines take advantage of that. Air France launched a nonstop flight between Los Angeles and London. British Airways launched OpenSkies, a subsidiary that flew between Newark and Paris. But unfortunately none of those concepts really survived for long.
At this point, you have Aer Lingus operating transatlantic flights out of Manchester (though the UK isn’t part of the EU), and you also have a bunch of non-European airlines operating fifth freedom flights from Europe. This includes Singapore Airlines’ Frankfurt to New York flight, Emirates’ Athens to Newark and Milan to New York flight, etc.
The actual concept of a full-on, competitive landscape across countries has really only materialized in short haul markets, where ultra low cost carriers have been able to fly pretty freely.
I can’t say I’m surprised this hasn’t worked so well in long haul markets. It’s not easy for airlines to make money, and there’s strength in having big hubs with a lot of connecting traffic. At the same time, you’d think there would be some cost arbitrage opportunities, given the vastly different labor costs across European Union countries.
Bottom line
LOT Polish Airlines is canceling its Budapest to Seoul Incheon route as of late March 2025, which is the carrier’s last remaining long haul route not out of Poland. At one point, LOT operated four long haul routes out of Hungary, taking advantage of the European Union’s Open Skies policy. The airline has now decided to instead focus on its Warsaw hub, so this service will be a thing of the past.
What do you make of LOT cutting long haul flights from Budapest?
I wouldn't call this a fifth freedom route given it's an ex-EU route operated by an EU carrier. By that logic, almost entire Ryanair network is fifth freedom :)
It's a pity that it's getting cancelled but I can understand why. Ex-BUD fares are generally super low (my closest airport is VIE but I fly longhaul from BUD all the time as it usually cuts the price by 500-700€), and there was no connecting network...
I wouldn't call this a fifth freedom route given it's an ex-EU route operated by an EU carrier. By that logic, almost entire Ryanair network is fifth freedom :)
It's a pity that it's getting cancelled but I can understand why. Ex-BUD fares are generally super low (my closest airport is VIE but I fly longhaul from BUD all the time as it usually cuts the price by 500-700€), and there was no connecting network out of BUD. It made sense within the previously planned BUD hub plans (it's sad that covid killed them, that would be a gamechanger) but there's not enough demand to sustain it as a point to point route.
Norse and ex-Norwegian long haul should be mentioned here. Airline based in Scandinavia but operating LAX-ATH and other routes between southern Europe and US. Perfect example of liberalization of long haul flights.
BUD-ICN even survived COVID, and even operated during COVID times. And was the last remaining flight of LOT's BUD HUB Build-Up.
LOT had plans to have 35 daily departures out of BUD for 2020. Only JFK and ICN survived. Then JFK was cut, after operating on and off between 2020 and 2022. But JFK operated 7x per week in 2019, and some days there were 2 LOT BUD-JFK flights! In 2018, LOT operated BUD-JFK 4x...
BUD-ICN even survived COVID, and even operated during COVID times. And was the last remaining flight of LOT's BUD HUB Build-Up.
LOT had plans to have 35 daily departures out of BUD for 2020. Only JFK and ICN survived. Then JFK was cut, after operating on and off between 2020 and 2022. But JFK operated 7x per week in 2019, and some days there were 2 LOT BUD-JFK flights! In 2018, LOT operated BUD-JFK 4x per week and BUD-ORD 3x per week.
And LOT's ultimate plans for BUD were to make BUD into a HUB nearly the size of WAW. LOT pre-COVID also had plans to make PRG a hub too. They even tried to buy Condor during COVID, but German government blocked it if i remember correctly.
Do we know why LOT gave up on those plans? Now that the pandemic is over, demand is high and WAW hub still full to brim, I'd expect them to get back to it. Central Europe desperately needs a competition for the LHG monopoly and larger LOT would be a great way to achieve that. I believe LOT still has growth plans to become a major airline and that can't be achieved with a single hub model (even if CPK becomes a reality).
At multiple points between 2019 and 2025, LOT did operate BUD-ICN even as much as 5x per week, but never more than that. The increases to the peak frequencies were typically during summer, and moreso before Korean arrived, and less common once Korean began competing more and increasing their frequencies as well. So there were a few instances that there was 10x BUD-ICN a week between the 2 carriers.
We're just hoping now that...
At multiple points between 2019 and 2025, LOT did operate BUD-ICN even as much as 5x per week, but never more than that. The increases to the peak frequencies were typically during summer, and moreso before Korean arrived, and less common once Korean began competing more and increasing their frequencies as well. So there were a few instances that there was 10x BUD-ICN a week between the 2 carriers.
We're just hoping now that Koreana steps up to the plate and increases their frequencies on BUD. But also hoping LOT returns to BUD again. Either with ICN, JFK, ORD, BUD HUB, or even try some new ones out of BUD, like: BKK, Phuket, SGN, HAN, NRT/HND. All unserved heavy nonstop demand routes.
FYI - the SQ nonstop flight from FRA to JFK was in existence LONG before the start of Open skies in 2008
LO still flies LCY-VNO; the route is subsidized by the Lithuanian government. There have been rumors that it would be cut from time to time, but it hangs on.
They also flew to JFK, and a MIA and LAX route was about to be announced but then Covid started.
Also LOT operated some short haul flights from BUD as well, to LCY, BRU, BEG and OTP, offering connections to the long haul network. They were also gone once Covid started.
Your heading says they cut Warsaw to Seoul. But it's Budapest they cut right?
@ JT -- Whoops, indeed, thanks! Fixed.