Earlier I wrote about how German airline Condor will be cutting half a dozen transatlantic routes in the summer of 2025. We’re now getting more of a sense of why that is, and it’s very bad news for airline competition in German.
In this post:
The complicated Condor & Lufthansa relationship
There’s a lot of history between Germany’s two largest airlines, Lufthansa and Condor. When Condor was founded back in 1955, Lufthansa was actually a shareholder in the company, and the airlines cooperated closely. Lufthansa basically viewed Condor as its leisure partner.
Over time that changed, and in the early 2000s, Lufthansa sold its Condor shares to Thomas Cook. When Thomas Cook went out of business, Condor ultimately became independent.
It has been a really exciting several years for Condor, as the airline has evolved in an incredible way. For example, Condor has replaced its outdated Boeing 767-300ERs with Airbus A330-900neos, offering an impressive passenger experience. Furthermore, the airline has increasingly started competing more directly with Lufthansa in long haul markets, flying between Frankfurt (FRA) and major cities in North America, ranging from Los Angeles (LAX), to Miami (MIA), to New York (JFK).
Here’s the thing, though — Condor is kind of reliant on Lufthansa. Frankfurt isn’t actually a huge market independently (especially for a leisure airline!), but rather the reason it’s such a big aviation hub is because of the size of Lufthansa’s presence there.
Up until now, Lufthansa has provided feeder traffic for Condor, at specially negotiated prices. Condor largely fills its planes with passengers connecting to and from Lufthansa flights. In other words, if you’re flying from Rome to Seattle, Condor will sell you a ticket with the Rome to Frankfurt segment on Lufthansa, and the Frankfurt to Seattle segment on Condor.
So, why would Lufthansa agree to provide feeder traffic for Condor, its biggest competitor in the country? Well, because it has legally been required to do so. The government has required Lufthansa to provide this reasonably priced connectivity to Condor in order to ensure competition in Germany.
For years, Lufthansa has been trying to get out of this arrangement, and the airline may have finally succeeded. 
Lufthansa wins court battle to end Condor agreement
For years, Lufthansa has been in court trying to get the right to discontinue its feeder relationship with Condor, and it looks like the airline has finally succeeded, as reported by aero.de. Germany’s Federal Court of Justice (BGH) has ruled in favor of Lufthansa, and against Condor and anti-trust authorities.
This means that Condor is no longer entitled to preferential pricing on Lufthansa feeder flights. Now, the two airlines are reportedly still in some sort of negotiations, and as of now, Condor is continuing to sell Lufthansa’s feeder flights. However, the airline is planning for a future without those flights.
Only time will tell how this plays out. While it’s possible that Lufthansa will continue to have some sort of an interline agreement with Condor, I have to imagine the rates won’t be attractive at all. After all, why would Lufthansa want to help its competitor offer cheap itineraries that undercut Lufthansa’s own pricing? The way Condor fills planes is with its low pricing.
I can’t really opine on the legal basis for this ruling, since it’s beyond my area of expertise, and for that matter, we’ve seen conflicting rulings from judges. One thing I can say with certainty is that Lufthansa has a very dominant position in Germany, and that’s not good for consumers. Furthermore, competitors just haven’t had much luck in Germany, whether it’s global German carriers like airberlin, or European regional ultra low cost carriers, like Ryanair.
How does Condor move forward from here?
It’s my understanding that a large percentage of Condor’s long haul passengers connect to or from Lufthansa flights. If Lufthansa were able to fully cut ties with Condor, it would be absolutely devastating for the airline. Yes, Condor is actually starting to operate more feeder flights, presumably in its biggest markets.
For example, the airline will fly from Frankfurt to places like Berlin (BER), Milan (MXP), Prague (PRG), Rome (FCO), and Zurich (ZRH). But even that won’t fully make up for the amount of connectivity lost.
Condor is cutting six transatlantic routes specifically because of this court ruling. So obviously these were also the markets that were most dependent on connecting traffic from Lufthansa.
Condor is a really well run airline nowadays, and ultimately I trust the current management team will find a way to evolve. But this is still potentially a pretty rough and sudden change in business plans.
Obviously transatlantic leisure demand is huge, but Americans usually want to visit Greece, Italy, and Spain, and not Germany. 😉 And interestingly for long haul flights, Condor seems to be much more popular with a US point of sale than a European point of sale.
I still think Condor would benefit from continuing to expand its partnerships. For example, Condor’s growth in Seattle has been impressive, thanks to the partnership with Alaska. For that matter, Condor sure would be a great fit for oneworld, but I can’t imagine the existing European oneworld carriers would be down for it.
Bottom line
Lufthansa has won a court battle, allowing the airline to end its special relationship with Condor. Condor has been reliant on Lufthansa for feeder traffic within Europe. Lufthansa hasn’t been happy with this arrangement for years, but it was required to ensure competition in the country.
With Lufthansa no longer having to provide this connectivity, Condor is going to have to seriously rework its route network, since Frankfurt isn’t that big of a market. So maybe Condor can significantly ramp up its regional network from Frankfurt, or maybe the airline will increasingly operate in other point-to-point markets. Only time will tell.
What do you make of this major development in German aviation?
Condor should work with other airlines aswell with Lufthansa. Condor shouldn't be dependent on Lufthansa only.
It would make sense for Condor to partner more closely with Alaska and find another European partner for feeder traffic, even if they have to move hub airports. My reasoning behind this is that they have had some success with TATL routes out of Seattle and if they continue to use Lufthansa to feed traffic the price will reflect Lufthansa "published" or "rack" rates which will go up because of this ruling. If they can...
It would make sense for Condor to partner more closely with Alaska and find another European partner for feeder traffic, even if they have to move hub airports. My reasoning behind this is that they have had some success with TATL routes out of Seattle and if they continue to use Lufthansa to feed traffic the price will reflect Lufthansa "published" or "rack" rates which will go up because of this ruling. If they can find another partner for some feeder or connecting traffic then they might be able to compete on price in what would ultimately be good for German customers. A close partnership with Alaska would likely have to remain outside of OneWorld but could serve to feed future connecting traffic to Hawaii for Euro-vacationers. It could fail but it has the potential for a real sweet spot.
I flew on Condor's A330NEO last year to SFO. It was actually a great flight. It was my first flight with them and I was quite impressed. Both the hard and soft service were on par with the majors.
I can suggest ways and means to organize
Ok, so I'll be the bad guy here... I have (and you should as well) come to the realization that the airline business is a natural oligopoly, due to the enormous economies of scale required to run a reliable and financially sustainable operation.
Without the LH association, Condor is simply too small and unsustainable as an investment and going concern, and would be best off at this point as an acquisition object.
Hello fellow network planners!;) haha
Moving aside from the TATL market, what about Asia routes for these aircraft. Aren't they very popular for Germans?... HELLO Thailand, etc etc (or even one-stop to Oz/NZ for the leisure market).
And not mention other EU gateways, first up ATH (seasonal, of course), etc
Happy Holidays!
Condor already does serve BKK for exactly that reason, it being a leisure destination.
To be honest a lot of their NA cuts made sense. Places like YEG, YHZ, BWI, SAT, MSP, PHX don’t exactly scream leisure market for Europeans. Focusing on the Alaska feed is what they need, which is why hubs like ANC were kept (and Alaska is a popular tourist destination during summer).
I think they could add a few more Asia...
Condor already does serve BKK for exactly that reason, it being a leisure destination.
To be honest a lot of their NA cuts made sense. Places like YEG, YHZ, BWI, SAT, MSP, PHX don’t exactly scream leisure market for Europeans. Focusing on the Alaska feed is what they need, which is why hubs like ANC were kept (and Alaska is a popular tourist destination during summer).
I think they could add a few more Asia destinations certainly. CNX, HAN, DPS, etc. are all quite popular.
It's posts like this when the OMAAT amateur network planners in the comments go all out.
If only Condor listened to them, they'd be much better off, regardless of their situation.
Given the exodus of passengers to the LCCs, I suspect that Condor's connecting passengers help to some extent to keep Lufthansa's intra-Europe network alive. LH needs these routes for their business fliers but they also need the leisure passengers to fill the back of the plane.
I wonder how difficult it would be for Condor to jump to different cities that would not only be cheaper to operate from but places that would also attract p2p traffic. Munich strikes me as a good choice but what about somewhere off the beaten path like Vienna or Budapest? Imagine the stopover opportunities.
Düsseldorf would be the only half-sensible choice.
At least summer time, I feel like maybe a Condor JetBlue codeshare could make sense on flights into/out of NYC and Boston.
Big oof for Condor. At this point I feel like they need to just break out of their reliance on Lufthansa and enter into some partnerships of their own.
My first thought for quite some time (and I've already seen others suggest it here), would be Oneworld and their IAG / AA JV. Condor partners with Alaskan Airlines already, and considering Oneworld's big continental European hole, Condor would actually have some room to stand as...
Big oof for Condor. At this point I feel like they need to just break out of their reliance on Lufthansa and enter into some partnerships of their own.
My first thought for quite some time (and I've already seen others suggest it here), would be Oneworld and their IAG / AA JV. Condor partners with Alaskan Airlines already, and considering Oneworld's big continental European hole, Condor would actually have some room to stand as a player in its own right and provide its own connectivity for AA / IAG. Plus, Condor's majority owner, Attestor, is also a fellow British firm (looking at you BA).
Add to that the name recognition Condor would gain from this partnership, and all of a sudden they may look like a strong competitor instead of being reliant of Lufthansa
How does that feed condor's longhaul flights at Frankfurt? Please explain. Condor doesn't have the dozens of narrow bodies or the physical infrastructure at Frankfurt to build the feed on its own, so how does forming relationships with airlines that don't have a hub at Frankfurt help that?
Also, it's Alaska Airlines. Not Alaskan.
It helps because the OW airlines all fly into FRA
Genuinely curious, but what is with airlines' obsessions with Frankfurt? I know it's a big business city so it makes sense for Lufthansa to base there, in addition to the airport having the infrastructure to support their massive operation. For the leisure-oriented Condor as well as foreign airlines, it seems like targeting the actual population centers, e.g. Rhine-Ruhr, Hamburg, and Berlin would eliminate a lot of the need for short-haul connections. And I know that...
Genuinely curious, but what is with airlines' obsessions with Frankfurt? I know it's a big business city so it makes sense for Lufthansa to base there, in addition to the airport having the infrastructure to support their massive operation. For the leisure-oriented Condor as well as foreign airlines, it seems like targeting the actual population centers, e.g. Rhine-Ruhr, Hamburg, and Berlin would eliminate a lot of the need for short-haul connections. And I know that the Rhine-Main region isn't exactly small in population, but it's always stuck out to me how concentrated air traffic is there and how all the other regions in Germany (sans-Munich) seem to be quite underserved relative to their size.
Infrastructure is the reason. As an airport, BER holds back the ability to grow significantly. Meanwhile FRA/MUC, may not be the world’s most beloved airports, they have the proper capacity/ops to handle the amount of aircraft to operate a connecting hub. It’s nontrivial to move a bunch of aircraft over from one hub to another.
@yoloswag420 Interesting that you say that. Berlin just opened a new airport a few years ago. Did planners resign themselves to the fact that they won't ever be Munich or Frankfurt and tone-down the scale of the airports infrastructure or is just that so far no one has wanted to take on the first-mover disadvantage and ramp up operations in BER? Condor going forward is only going to have a long-haul fleet of 21 aircraft....
@yoloswag420 Interesting that you say that. Berlin just opened a new airport a few years ago. Did planners resign themselves to the fact that they won't ever be Munich or Frankfurt and tone-down the scale of the airports infrastructure or is just that so far no one has wanted to take on the first-mover disadvantage and ramp up operations in BER? Condor going forward is only going to have a long-haul fleet of 21 aircraft. Spread across multiple population centers in Germany I can't imagine that would put too much of a strain on airport resources anywhere.
well, BER is too small because of a complete lack of a visionary strategy in german infrastructure planning—and it’s ugly on top of that. connecting to the center of berlin with public transport would actually be pretty pleasant if only the airport trains would be longer, cleaner, more frequent at peak hours, and of course more direct services to the centre
in short, welcome to germany.
Growth away from the LH hubs would provide a key differentiator. Hamburg would be an excellent choice if they have the capacity. Berlin would be great for connecting to Central Europe.
Growth away from FRA/MUC? There are that many paxs wanting to travel from LAX or NYC, etc, to Hamburg?
If there's growth, it'll be from outside of Germany.
I do hope Condor can shift and continue to compete with Lufthansa. This summer a colleagues and I flew to Frankfurt for work, she took LH’s ancient 343, I took DE’s new 339. Other than her lounge access, I’m pretty sure my flight was more comfortable over all and cost way less.
This would not have happened if they were more premium and flew A350-1000s
I know you’re memeing, but Condor is unironically one of the largest operators of the A330neo, third I believe. And Delta is the largest. So they are quite similar in that regard.
The A330neos are quite lovely to fly because of how modern they are. I enjoy Condor more than LH for that reason. And Delta’s A330neo product is quite nice and one of the better overall hard products for North American carriers.
It all went to hell after the Crowdstrike Happening
Condor should -- at the very least -- quickly broker a deal with Deutsche Bahn to link high speed rail tickets with its service from Frankfurt. That would at least preserve some feeder traffic to and from other parts of Germany. It would also match the service already provided by Lufthansa.
I have done this on my own since I fly DE out of FRA. As I usually spend a summer month in Southern Bavaria, train to FRA is the most logical, cheapest, and most scenic, and takes around the same time as taking the 40 minute ride to MUC, and waste time checking in and security and all that. First Class train with seat reservation, and senior ticket is around 50 bucks.
DB is a freaking disaster. We had so many problems with them the last two trips (and so does everyone else) that we actually ended up renting a car instead of fighting the nearly infinite delays and cancellations that seem to occur these days.
Could you imagine the hysterically incompetent leadership of LH replaced by Condor? They should pull a Boeing, get acquired, and take over LH. Everyone is happy.
Agreed that, for the consumer, Condor would be perfect for OW. My uneducated guess, since the airline is well run, is they have contingency plans for this since it's been in court & the writing was on the wall. Perhaps wet leasing narrow bodies in the short term.
The suggestion that suppliers forming oligopolistic cartels is 'perfect for the consumer' sounds a bit far-fetched!
I do agree that the optimal solution for Condor is likely to join OneWorld and the JV with AA/IAG even though it may not be very likely as it would fill a hole in OW's network and give Condor feed on both ends.
That solution comes close to airberlin. Regarding the route network and expansion there are undoubtedly some parallels.
Hope that Condor can sustain its business and don‘t become the second airberlin.
They obviously need to be working on partnerships with airlines that sit outside the JVs. The likes of Skyexpress, Air Serbia, and Air Europa would likely be more than happy to offer them feeder deals, but they might also be able to get some traffic from TP, LO, RO and so on.
I agree, for the time being, they should likely try to broker some deals with airlines that serve FRA, and do not belong to LH.
Air Europa, Aegean, Finnair, TAP, LOT, Croatian. Maybe even some of the AF/KLM or IAG carriers (LON, DUB, Scandinavia). What is left afterwards (ZRH, VIE, BER, HAM, Italy). they could try to cover with their own S/H fleet.
Comparable to VS... long-haul with no feed. You can get away with that sort of model if you're La Compagnie and only operate 4 flights a day between two major cities, but an airline of consequential size, that ain't gonna work.
Given that LOT has been given the short-shrift in the *A TA JV, that might make for an opportunistic partnerships...
Not comparable at all. London is a gigantic market that attracts hordes of American tourists and business people, and generates a lot of demand for trips to the states as well. Frankfurt? Not even close. Not the same thing at all. And you'd be surprised, but BA does provide VS a surprising amount of feed at LHR. And VS has their own onward connectivity to India, South Africa, and Dubai as well.
...and VS' network is closely linked to DL's which provides an enormous amount of feed in the US as well as feeds traffic to VS' destinations beyond LHR.
DE would love to have a US partner.... maybe they will come in play with the JVs. I am sure AA/BA and AF/DL/KL would love to have a German partner
Considering LHG is partnering with Air Baltic and their good connectivity to central Europe from MUC or VIE, it sounds strategic for OW and Skyteam to have a Eastern Europe/western-central Asia gateway.
LH has an Alpine fortress with MUC, FRA, MXP, and VIE or a Blue Dorsal wall from BRU to FCO. Anything significantly east of that will be very low yields. BER still has potential for gentrification and future yields. DUS or CGN have...
Considering LHG is partnering with Air Baltic and their good connectivity to central Europe from MUC or VIE, it sounds strategic for OW and Skyteam to have a Eastern Europe/western-central Asia gateway.
LH has an Alpine fortress with MUC, FRA, MXP, and VIE or a Blue Dorsal wall from BRU to FCO. Anything significantly east of that will be very low yields. BER still has potential for gentrification and future yields. DUS or CGN have probably more immediate O/D traffic and are part of the Blue Banana. DUS especially could leverage : central location in Ruhr, already served by Condor, partnership with railway partner to offer effective NW Germany feeding without requiring short haul planes, already served by Delta: could focus on Euro destinations not served by AF/KL/SK/VS essentially competing with AT on connecting TATL markets.
Fit feels more natural with Sky Team but I could see how Condor's acquisition would be more essential to One World considering their weak position in central eastern Europe and deep Qatari pockets.
Presents an interesting opportunity for a merger with an airline with different needs and some regional coverage - Air Baltic, TAP…
Condor needs to take the case to the EU where LH has less influence.
and then they need to diversify between the German market. As a member of the EU, they can fly anywhere. As you note, the local German market is larger in other parts of Germany but even more so in other parts of Europe esp. during the summer.
Wishing them well in their restructuring.
Lufthansa and the German government are quite intertwined, and that’s is not helping any competition. Finally they do no longer provide the members of parliament with free *A Gold status (Senator), but LH is being pampered as a national champion.