While global travel demand has recovered very nicely post-pandemic, there are some exceptions. China is one of those, and here’s the perfect example of just how bad the situation is.
In this post:
British Airways cuts London to Beijing route
As of late October 2024, British Airways will be canceling its service between London (LHR) and Beijing (PKX). The oneworld airline is technically suspending this service through the end of the schedule, though I’d basically consider that to be the same as a cancelation for these purposes, since I imagine it just means the airline will reconsider the route in the future.
British Airways only resumed service to Beijing in the middle of 2023, given for how long China’s borders remained closed after the pandemic, plus the lengthy quarantine required.
For what it’s worth, the route currently operates 4x weekly using a Boeing 777, with the following schedule:
BA89 London to Beijing departing 3:05PM arriving 9:35AM (+1 day)
BA88 Beijing to London departing 11:20AM arriving 5:40PM
The 5,106-mile flight is blocked at 11hr30min eastbound and 13hr20min westbound. The flight takes more time than it used to, given the airspace restrictions regarding flying over Russia.
It’s amazing how China travel demand has plummeted
With British Airways canceling its Beijing service, the carrier’s only other service to Mainland China is a once daily flight to Shanghai (PVG). Not only is British Airways canceling its Beijing flight, but the airline is further reducing Hong Kong (HKG) service for the upcoming winter season, as British Airways will only offer once daily flights in the market.
British Airways has historically flown 2x daily to Hong Kong, including with some frequencies being operated by Airbus A380s, so the drop in capacity is significant.
Looking at service between the UK and China, Virgin Atlantic also recently announced it would end Shanghai flights, representing the end of the SkyTeam carrier’s service to the Far East.
Obviously demand isn’t just down between the UK and China, but rather this is consistent between a variety of countries and China. US airlines are also only operating a small percentage of their pre-pandemic service to China.
But still, it’s kind of shocking to look at the scope of service reductions, when you consider that we’re talking about a country with 1.4 billion people, so it’s an absolutely massive country. The fact that British Airways can’t even sustain 4x weekly flights to China’s capital, with a population of over 20 million people, shows just how bad things have become.
Bottom line
As of late October 2024, British Airways will be ending its service between London and Beijing. The flight is currently operated 4x weekly, and the flight will be suspended for at least a year.
This upcoming winter, British Airways will have a daily flight to each of Hong Kong and Shanghai, and that’s the extent of the carrier’s service to Greater China.
What do you make of British Airways cutting Beijing flights?
Well done. This is the decoupling what people has long been hoping for!
So many international companies are leaving China. The economy is in a slump. The once booming middle class can't afford to travel and western companies are afraid their employees can get arrested under their vague espionage laws. Most financial institutions are now leaving Hong Kong for Singapore to avoid banking regulations set up the US and EU.
other more in depth journalist rather than click bate chasers have identified the real reason: the EU carriers have to avoid russian airspace, making the trip longer and with timings what they are, in pracitce adding quite some time & extra waiting crew; chinese airlines don't have that cosntraint; with prices on the majority of the seats being prety low, BA and oher EU carriers can't be competitive; too bad that a site like OMAAT...
other more in depth journalist rather than click bate chasers have identified the real reason: the EU carriers have to avoid russian airspace, making the trip longer and with timings what they are, in pracitce adding quite some time & extra waiting crew; chinese airlines don't have that cosntraint; with prices on the majority of the seats being prety low, BA and oher EU carriers can't be competitive; too bad that a site like OMAAT that stood for real journalism has chosen not to really analise this, but just repprt a nonsensical content for clickbate and adds
Would not the number of flights reflect the interests of the citizens in both countries in the other country? May not be as "one way" as it may sound.
A lot of good comments here, and taken in their entirety they offer many reasons why BA is forced to make these reductions. Not to mention that Hong Kong (formerly a British colony, later a mostly autonomous state) has now been forced into the PRC for all intents and purposes. True, entry and exit procedures are looser than those of the PRC, but the same overbearing tactic of the Xi regime are present. Who wants...
A lot of good comments here, and taken in their entirety they offer many reasons why BA is forced to make these reductions. Not to mention that Hong Kong (formerly a British colony, later a mostly autonomous state) has now been forced into the PRC for all intents and purposes. True, entry and exit procedures are looser than those of the PRC, but the same overbearing tactic of the Xi regime are present. Who wants to go there as a tourist, knowing what the locals are going through there? Who wants to do business in a place that went from being one of the freest on Earth to being yet another enclave of a repressive regime? You can argue the answers, but the market has already made their judgment and HK isn't a fraction of the draw that it once was. It's been ruined, which is sad.
And yes, as another commenter here noted, I have also seen all of the 2nd and 3rd tier YouTubers suddenly posting vlogs from the PRC talking about how awesome it is to visit. And it's interesting how they all seemed to pop up on YT around the same time. Quite the coincidence. Yes, I'd love to see China someday - but there's no way I'd go now. Their political situation, constant surveillance, bullying of neighbors, and human rights abuses make it impossible to visit.
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John.C Guest
August 9, 2024, 10:04 am
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stogieguy7 Diamond
August 9, 2024, 12:51 pm
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James Guest
August 9, 2024, 6:59 pm
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2 more repliesWhat a pathetic comment. Full of rubbish. In what way this route suspension to do with the fabricated HK/human rights problem? The weak demand on this route is simply means fewer Britain can offered to travel and fewer Chinese want to visit the broken and unsafe British island. It is what it is.
Wow, I have to hand it to the PRC....naming their bots "John" now.
Have you considered that YouTubers all started popping up at the same time because there was a huge influx of tourists when the borders reopened, having been closed for over 2.5 years? Then China began offering 15 days visa free, initially to 6 countries, currently to 15 countries. I really don’t see any coincidence♂️
Detailed reporting from Reuters on this subject:
Foreign airlines lose interest in China as domestic carriers expand abroad - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/foreign-airlines-lose-interest-china-domestic-carriers-expand-abroad-2024-08-09/
Who writes this rubbish? What are their sources? These recent cancellations by British airlines aren’t to do with a lack of demand, they’re to do with too much competition, and much more affordable competition at that. With the Russian airspace restrictions, it is costing British airlines more to operate their China flights, which reflects in their ticket prices. Given the choice would you pay more for a flight that takes more time? Of course not....
Who writes this rubbish? What are their sources? These recent cancellations by British airlines aren’t to do with a lack of demand, they’re to do with too much competition, and much more affordable competition at that. With the Russian airspace restrictions, it is costing British airlines more to operate their China flights, which reflects in their ticket prices. Given the choice would you pay more for a flight that takes more time? Of course not. Even JAL is losing customers to China Eastern; their connections between Shanghai and Japan are so extensive that they can offer flights between Japan and Europe, with a short connection in Shanghai, that take almost the same time but cost considerably less than their Japanese competitors. I have the statistics from the CAAC in front of me for May and PEK-LHR is the third busiest route from China to the UK, behind only HKG and PVG to LHR. PKX-LHR carries the 5th highest number of passengers. Over 57,000 passengers combined flew these two routes in May, an increase of 4249 passengers from April. 14 airports, across 13 cities, in China have direct connections with either Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester or Edinburgh, and this continues to grow, including with the recent inauguration of Juneyao Airline’s PVG-MAN flight. The demand is there, the west just can’t compete with China, as always.
"an increase of 4249 passengers from April."
LOL, what were the numbers in April 2019. That'd paint a FAR greater picture of demand relative to allocation, than month to month post-covid comparisons.
I think this reflects more the decreasing links between the West and China. As someone based in Asia there are only more and more flights and easier travel links (visa waiver etc) between China and other Asian countries now. I guess it is a re-alignment of strategic interests
I think there is a difference between a lack of demand and if airlines can be profitable from it. The demand certainly remainds but airlines especially ones that need to avoid Russian airspace have trouble making profits. As others said there are still flights between China and European cities.
While I agree that China is mostly looking for business and investments, they are also looking for tourists and boosting relations with other countries. Look...
I think there is a difference between a lack of demand and if airlines can be profitable from it. The demand certainly remainds but airlines especially ones that need to avoid Russian airspace have trouble making profits. As others said there are still flights between China and European cities.
While I agree that China is mostly looking for business and investments, they are also looking for tourists and boosting relations with other countries. Look at the number of countries that have a visa free period with China for example (mostly two weeks, some have a month).
Further, some of the other comments are not accurate. For example, local mobile providers do accept linking international credit cards or about topics relating to "exit visas." People go in and out on tourist or business visas all the time, for example.
China has definitely turned inward in the last few years. Plans like the "Dual-circulation strategy" largely orient away from international trade and people flows, and this might be the end result.
Goooood…. Let them disappear behind their event horizon so we’re free of their propaganda.
You know what else in the universe truly excels at “turning inwards” and “internal dual circulation” ?
Black holes.
So funny reading comments of people thinking China wants tourists.
They want business and investments.
They have more tourists than their attractions can handle already.
Obviously this is from the Chinese economy.
If business is good, they would increase frequency despite the Russian airspace.
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beeenthere Guest
August 8, 2024, 11:47 pm
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globetrotter Guest
August 9, 2024, 12:47 am
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1 more replyyes but it is not. The way they treat tourists is not unlike how they treat business people. Plus business people often need to live in china. They are surveilled, their homes are searched when they are away. Their activities are controlled in all sorts of ways. Not good for business and that is not helpful to the economy. There are lots of places to do business now, people have a lot of choices, and that is better for everyone.
You need to read more reliable news to broaden your horizon. All 500
fortune companies cowed to Chinese demands in order to set up shops in China. They were willing to give up some "secret sauce" of their trades
to meet Chinese requirements. No capitalist business boycotts a market of over one billion consumers with adequate income to buy their products.
I'd strongly discourage any westerner from traveling to China. You need an exit visa to leave and the government will, not infrequently, deny exit visas and detain Americans, Brits and others from countries that they want to make a point with. They're not Russia - most people are eventually released, but it's not a fun end to a vacation or a business trip.
I suspect that this one of the reasons BA can't sustain...
I'd strongly discourage any westerner from traveling to China. You need an exit visa to leave and the government will, not infrequently, deny exit visas and detain Americans, Brits and others from countries that they want to make a point with. They're not Russia - most people are eventually released, but it's not a fun end to a vacation or a business trip.
I suspect that this one of the reasons BA can't sustain flights. The other - mentioned by another commenter - is that the entire Chinese ecosystem has become increasingly inaccessible to non-Chinese, especially those who don't read the language. No cash, no western apps, no access to local apps. I was there 25 years ago and it was fairly easy for foreigners, even those who don't speak Chinese, to get around. Not anymore. Most people would need a local host or to join a tour group. China really doesn't care if you visit.
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Eskimo Guest
August 8, 2024, 7:41 pm
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ImmortalSynn Guest
August 8, 2024, 10:21 pm
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globetrotter Guest
August 9, 2024, 12:41 am
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A Chinese Guest
August 9, 2024, 2:47 am
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3 more repliesExit visa for westerners, really?
Are you stuck in time?
"You need an exit visa to leave and the government will, not infrequently, deny exit visas and detain Americans, Brits and others from countries that they want to make a point with."
Exaggerate much?
Many countries have an exist visa process, that's not new. It doesn't require anything other than showing up at the airport and getting in line.
And no it is not "not infrequent" for them to deny such to casual travelers....
"You need an exit visa to leave and the government will, not infrequently, deny exit visas and detain Americans, Brits and others from countries that they want to make a point with."
Exaggerate much?
Many countries have an exist visa process, that's not new. It doesn't require anything other than showing up at the airport and getting in line.
And no it is not "not infrequent" for them to deny such to casual travelers. That part's complete B.S., stated as a Westerner who's traveled to China multiple times per year since the 1980s, including this year.
Exit visa is normally issued to people who work and live in the host country. , Kuwait and Saudi Arabia used to require entry and exit visas as they did not allow visitors in the country. It is not a tourist visa that most people in the west are familiar with when you know it is valid for a certain number of months.
You mean exit immigration? Isn’t it everywhere. CBP can detain people at Int’l boarding gate, and that’s their exit immigration.
My father loves watching what I consider to be fox news of China. If you watch this station you'll notice that 50% of the news is crime in the USA but there is not a single story of crime in any location in China. They are obsessed with the usa. My mother on the other hand notices this. She tells me she doesn't trust that channel because she has never saw any reports that are...
My father loves watching what I consider to be fox news of China. If you watch this station you'll notice that 50% of the news is crime in the USA but there is not a single story of crime in any location in China. They are obsessed with the usa. My mother on the other hand notices this. She tells me she doesn't trust that channel because she has never saw any reports that are Chinese negative. Well, I recently noticed something odd about this channel. In the last few months there is a large number of "street interviews" of non asians in China who are either a tourist or living there telling people how great it is to visit there and to live there. However, not a single one out of the dozens I saw were Americans. I can tell from the heavy accents. So I know atm they are desperate for tourism.
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Dex Guest
August 8, 2024, 6:34 pm
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Bob the Simp Guest
August 9, 2024, 11:22 am
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Eskimo Guest
August 10, 2024, 4:36 am
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2 more repliesI've noticed in the last 3 or 4 months, many second and third tier YouTube travel vloggers going to China. They go for a week or two and they ooh and aah about the cities they visit.
Lack of Americans is due to the country not being part of free visa. Simple as that. If you read up on travel to China, they have offered visa free for a good number of Western countries. Understandably, USA is not part of it. Simple as that.
@Bob the Simp
And did you know that for China it's about reciprocity. So guess which country doesn't want to waive the visa.
"It’s amazing how China travel demand has plummeted". I am not sure this is accurate, Ben. Flights between Europe and China have surpassed pre-COVID levels, largely thanks to Chinese airlines increasing their services. I would imagine most of these routes have reasonably high loads and yields, as not all Chinese airlines serving them are state-owned (and thus wouldn't "burn" money on unprofitable services). As I see it, the key factor is that European (and other)...
"It’s amazing how China travel demand has plummeted". I am not sure this is accurate, Ben. Flights between Europe and China have surpassed pre-COVID levels, largely thanks to Chinese airlines increasing their services. I would imagine most of these routes have reasonably high loads and yields, as not all Chinese airlines serving them are state-owned (and thus wouldn't "burn" money on unprofitable services). As I see it, the key factor is that European (and other) airlines can't overfly Russia and simply have better opportunities for their planes than flying longer (aka more expensive) routes to China/Asia.
"But still, it’s kind of shocking to look at the scope of service reductions, when you consider that we’re talking about a country with 1.4 billion people, so it’s an absolutely massive country."
That's part of the issue, right there. China's population is almost certainly NOT 1.4 billion and is likely far lower. The Chinese government is well known for inflating economic numbers and other statistics to show strength while concealing or revising numbers to...
"But still, it’s kind of shocking to look at the scope of service reductions, when you consider that we’re talking about a country with 1.4 billion people, so it’s an absolutely massive country."
That's part of the issue, right there. China's population is almost certainly NOT 1.4 billion and is likely far lower. The Chinese government is well known for inflating economic numbers and other statistics to show strength while concealing or revising numbers to hide weakness. When these exaggerations are compounded over many years, the distortions become significant.
Case in point, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in China is less than 100,000 while the true number is likely (at least) 10 times higher. Consider also that China started its draconian one-child policy in 1980, yet the country's reported population grew steadily from 982 million in 1980 to 1.4 billion in 2020. Does anyone really believe that?
Per the analysis of a Chinese-expat YouTuber living in the U.S., China's current population is likely close to (or even less than) 1 billion. One billion is still a large population, of course, but considering the country's large real-estate debt bubble and stagnant economy due to a worsening political and trade situation, most Chinese have less discretionary cash for travel compared to recent years. And on the flip side, most Western-aligned countries are sending fewer tourists to China.
@EC: The issue that you raised is not talked much about. China is increasingly charting its own path away from western influences in finances and politics. It learned a huge lesson from western embargo on Russia, Iran and other hostile countries to the west. When the US aggressively abuses its dominances to achieve its agendas and policies, it will see its effectiveness lessened in near future. The BRIC countries are slowly moving away from the...
@EC: The issue that you raised is not talked much about. China is increasingly charting its own path away from western influences in finances and politics. It learned a huge lesson from western embargo on Russia, Iran and other hostile countries to the west. When the US aggressively abuses its dominances to achieve its agendas and policies, it will see its effectiveness lessened in near future. The BRIC countries are slowly moving away from the USD dominance and its banking system. Its goals have attracted interests from US allies, such as UAE and Saudi Arabia, two petroleum powerhouses that peg oil barrel cost to USD. The US overplays its power without understanding Chinese culture and leadership. While the US is spending trillions of dollars in military conquests since Bush Jr., China has been quietly expanding its financial tentacles and exerting its financial tentacles in Asian, African and South American countries rich in natural resources. China has the power to send our economy into the great recession or depression at its will. But it will not make economic and military decisions on impulse. China has 15 year plan. US government has two or four year plan, based on election cycles. US corporations? Quarterly earning profits.
Air France cannot use Russian air space while still flies to Beijing, and so does Lufthansa. Air France's partner China Eastern is even not HQ'ed in Beijing and mostly kicked out of Capital Airport, while AF is still running the CDG-PEK route, so my take is geopolitics is not the only reason.
Instead, UK's loose policy on subsidy Chinese airlines to fly low LF and dirt cheap subsidy flights from tier 2 cities to...
Air France cannot use Russian air space while still flies to Beijing, and so does Lufthansa. Air France's partner China Eastern is even not HQ'ed in Beijing and mostly kicked out of Capital Airport, while AF is still running the CDG-PEK route, so my take is geopolitics is not the only reason.
Instead, UK's loose policy on subsidy Chinese airlines to fly low LF and dirt cheap subsidy flights from tier 2 cities to London is the main reason. I can hardly imagine how any non Tier 1 city routes to London make money, but that's how Chinese airlines work.
I enjoyed this article far more than many of the other recent ones. Articles should have a "helpful" button like the comments.
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Tim Dunn Diamond
August 8, 2024, 2:15 pm
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BenjaminGuttery Diamond
August 8, 2024, 3:34 pm
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AD Diamond
August 8, 2024, 5:39 pm
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2 more repliesBen can and does write good, unbiased content when he wants
BABAHAHAHAH! Unbiased? Gimme a break Timmy. Ben is always unbiased and is very clear when he makes a joke or comment that would sway something either way. Your just mad because he is honest about Delta, the good, the bad, and clearly factual.
Talk about a backhanded compliment from @Tim Dunn. Maybe he should go full on southern and tell Ben "you're so pretty." (Translation: he's stupid) and "bless his heart." (also stupid). I could go on... but really. Rude, much?
Western tourists would be crazy to go to China right now, due to risk of arbitrary detention, so that's gotta be a big factor.
I suspect that not being able to use Russian airspace is the main factor here. Chinese airlines seem to be doing well on their routes to Beijing. Just look at the shedules from LHR to PEK. Plenty of flights and good prices
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Nosa Guest
August 8, 2024, 11:22 am
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A Chinese Guest
August 8, 2024, 4:24 pm
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ConcordeBoy Diamond
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August 8, 2024, 11:46 am
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August 8, 2024, 4:54 pm
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ImmortalSynn Guest
August 9, 2024, 1:48 am
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Pete Guest
August 8, 2024, 4:58 pm
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6 more repliesTrue. And if there is PEK option, who wants to go to PKX?
@Nosa
BA voluntarily moved to PKX back in 2019 after PKX opened, as its Chinese partner CZ moved. AA and DL also moved due to the same reason (DL's Chinese partner is MU, tho), but they have not return to Beijing yet. My take is with public transport, PKX may be better than PEK as PEK's airport train can only do 96kph / 60mph while PKX's train go 160kph / 100mph and have in-town...
@Nosa
BA voluntarily moved to PKX back in 2019 after PKX opened, as its Chinese partner CZ moved. AA and DL also moved due to the same reason (DL's Chinese partner is MU, tho), but they have not return to Beijing yet. My take is with public transport, PKX may be better than PEK as PEK's airport train can only do 96kph / 60mph while PKX's train go 160kph / 100mph and have in-town check in.
That being said, CZ is a subpar airline comparing to CA and MU today. Partly because its CEO Xulun Ma (or Accountant Ma, or Hungry Ma for loading pax -2 portions' catering betting someone choosing not to eat onboard), and partly because CZ's HQ Guangzhou is not on par with Beijing and Shanghai speaking of GDP and number of company HQs.
DL never flew to Daxing.
They were scheduled to move there in March 2020, but cancelled their service due to Covid in February.
and yet the same Russia airspace dynamic exists for US and western Europe to India flights; it takes an hour or more longer for US and western European airlines to fly to India because Indian airlines do not honor Russia airspace restrictions = and flights are being added to India by European airlines.
the 787 and 777 which AA and UA fly can basically only fly from NYC to Delhi with Russian airspace restrictions...
and yet the same Russia airspace dynamic exists for US and western Europe to India flights; it takes an hour or more longer for US and western European airlines to fly to India because Indian airlines do not honor Russia airspace restrictions = and flights are being added to India by European airlines.
the 787 and 777 which AA and UA fly can basically only fly from NYC to Delhi with Russian airspace restrictions so there is no growth by US airlines - UA is actually smaller to India than it was.
DL hasn't jumped back into India but the A350 has more range and can easily fly routes from the US to BOM which the 787 or 777 can't fly.
AI's international capacity is a lot smaller than any of the big Chinese airlines. much less all of them combined. So there's still a market for EUR-IND direct flights. LON-BJS is supplied by CA and CX, I think something like 4x daily?
"DL hasn't jumped back into India but the A350 has more range and can easily fly routes from the US to BOM which the 787 or 777 can't fly."
You always post that as if it were some kind of boast, but Delta is still the only of the global USA airlines to not return to India, despite having the most capable planes.
That showcases their weakness market. Not exactly something to brag about.
Are the flights full, or are they rattling around over Russia with 40 pax onboard just to keep up appearances?
Wow during its hayday to HKG. BA used to operate 3 daily flights (2x747, 1x777) and VS had 3 daily flights with one onwards to SYD. how the mighty have fallen!
A sample size of one, but the other issue is that now, post-pandemic, and with shifting politics, China lacks much interest in Western tourists. I have travelled there for work, and almost everything payment related was complicated and prone to failure for a foreigner. Most restaurants use ordering systems through WeChat (brilliant for locals), an app which you can't get access to if you're not signed off by a local user in good standing, and...
A sample size of one, but the other issue is that now, post-pandemic, and with shifting politics, China lacks much interest in Western tourists. I have travelled there for work, and almost everything payment related was complicated and prone to failure for a foreigner. Most restaurants use ordering systems through WeChat (brilliant for locals), an app which you can't get access to if you're not signed off by a local user in good standing, and WeChat won't support most Western credit and debit cards. Most interfaces in WeChat are also untranslated, so something as simple as ordering a taxi can be very difficult. AliPay works - mostly - but fails inexplicably at points leaving you limited options. Cash can work too, but China is increasingly cashless and locals are usually deeply suspicious of cash given to them by tourists (suspecting it to be counterfeit). You can't access local map applications on your phone, and Google Maps is badly out-of-date / non-functional, so even just navigating is really quite difficult.
The difference is stark compared to my experience in 2018. China doesn't need Western tourists, and doesn't want to make it easy for them.
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ll5777779 Member
August 8, 2024, 11:10 am
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Luke Guest
August 8, 2024, 12:38 pm
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beeenthere Guest
August 8, 2024, 11:45 pm
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Chad Guest
August 8, 2024, 4:12 pm
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3 more repliespretty much agree with this except for the last bit on not needing tourists - given china's over reliance on (largely money losing / low yield) construction and infrastructure and how that's screwed over its economy, it might do well to lean more into tourism to diversify away from the debt traps that are empty condo buildings and unused high speed rail
Guess the best workaround for most of these issues is to only travel through a organized tour.
And there is the rub. I speak Chinese and have traveled all over the country and love the people, but everything is so restricted now. Even before I left one time I got in trouble for leaving my hotel. I'd rather not be surveilled and treated like an untrustworthy idiot. Plus they have made a real effort to tear down any older things of interest and replace them to make them look like just anyplace...
And there is the rub. I speak Chinese and have traveled all over the country and love the people, but everything is so restricted now. Even before I left one time I got in trouble for leaving my hotel. I'd rather not be surveilled and treated like an untrustworthy idiot. Plus they have made a real effort to tear down any older things of interest and replace them to make them look like just anyplace instead of uniquely Chinese. Also my friends can't talk about anything safely. I'm very sad for the Chinese people. Thanks anyway. They make it hard for you to buy stuff because they only want you to buy it is certain places. Once upon a time it was "foreign money" now it is this.
That makes sense. China has a long history of being insular and also distrusting of foreigners. Most of their money comes from making stuff to be sent overseas, not for entertaining tourists.
Maybe Chinese carriers providing competition as they fly over Russia influences this decision as well? These flights end up being considerably shorter and (in most cases) cheaper.
The way the USA bans flights to the USA (but not necessarily all flights on carriers that fly to the USA) might not be such a bad idea?
What a lot of you are forgetting is that China is a hare's breath away from a major economic recession right now. If its teetering real-estate over-developments finally collapse, it may likely push the entire Chinese economy into a severe recession which would make the 1929 Great Depression look like a Sunday picnic.
The Chairman's Economic review of a few weeks ago show just how dire things are. Whilst 'close to home' destinations are...
What a lot of you are forgetting is that China is a hare's breath away from a major economic recession right now. If its teetering real-estate over-developments finally collapse, it may likely push the entire Chinese economy into a severe recession which would make the 1929 Great Depression look like a Sunday picnic.
The Chairman's Economic review of a few weeks ago show just how dire things are. Whilst 'close to home' destinations are slowly ramping up to places like Australia and New Zealand, there simply isn't the mainland China feed to risk travelling overseas. Don't forget that pre-pandemic, CX was flying 7 daily flights from HKG to the UK. Not these days,
Yes, the over-fly rights are a bit of an issue for Western carriers (EU) but even if they weren't, there simply isn't the demand from Mainland China to fill their own airlines, let alone the pre-Covid levels provided by BA, Finnair, Qantas, Air New Zealand and the Lufthansa's of our world. One only has to look at China's economic growth metric to see that there's big trouble in little China. Don't believe me, go ask the luxury purveyors of LVMH in China. Their Chinese rivers of gold have turned into a dribble, lately. Steel, aluminium and rare earth materials? China was globally hoarding these 15-18 months ago. Not so much, these days ..
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Airfarer Diamond
August 8, 2024, 10:20 am
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david Guest
August 8, 2024, 4:35 pm
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USUKHKflyer Member
August 8, 2024, 10:26 am
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2 more repliesHair's breadth. The width of a hair.
An RCH.
CX still flies 5x to LHR and 1x to MAN. It's a couple flights down and not flying to LGW, but not that different.
I agree that China's economy is in big trouble. However, I wonder if the BA suspension is mostly driven by other factors, e.g., can't use Russian airspace, lack of connectivity beyond PKX, etc.
Absolutely nothing surprising if you knew anything about global geopolitics and the complete transition from China as a producer to the world to a producer for themselves. While China is still an important player in global markets, many companies (including mine) have transitioned manufacturing of key products to other Se and S Asian countries and North America. Their combination of authoritarian policies, no IP or legal protections and increasingly higher and now uncompetitive costs have...
Absolutely nothing surprising if you knew anything about global geopolitics and the complete transition from China as a producer to the world to a producer for themselves. While China is still an important player in global markets, many companies (including mine) have transitioned manufacturing of key products to other Se and S Asian countries and North America. Their combination of authoritarian policies, no IP or legal protections and increasingly higher and now uncompetitive costs have brought us here.
Some of it is definitely the political situation, people around me and in general from what I've seen in western media have been more afraid to go to china whether because of their incredibly harsh reaction to covid, reports of siding with Russia and Iran etc.
Qantas has cancelled their service to Shanghai from Sydney as well from October due to unfavorable loads
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2 more repliesAsk the two Canadians who were arrested in China for doing nothing, because an actual Chinese criminal was arrested in Canada. If you travel to China, that could be anyone if some Chinese criminal happens to be arrested in your home country.
Actual Chinese criminal.. that's just as laughable as China saying the Canadians they detained were criminals. Canada is a pathetic lackey of the USA with incompetent Trudeau.
https://apnews.com/article/canada-china-detained-settlement-michael-spavor-huawei-18a12cf0d834ad0b4843557723d8131e
What a shame.
Ben is right on this one that the political situation between the west and China has decimated demand. Pre-Covid, China was subsidizing its citizens and airlines to visit the world - but the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.
It would be interesting to know the load factor BA was carrying to PEK but Cranky noted that UA's LF on SFO-PEK last winter was one of the lowest on its Pacific system.
This...
Ben is right on this one that the political situation between the west and China has decimated demand. Pre-Covid, China was subsidizing its citizens and airlines to visit the world - but the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.
It would be interesting to know the load factor BA was carrying to PEK but Cranky noted that UA's LF on SFO-PEK last winter was one of the lowest on its Pacific system.
This also validates that Virgin Atlantic, which doesn't have the feed at LHR, wasn't alone in seeing weakness to PVG.
Russian airspace closures don't help but airlines are making S. Korea and Japan work with circuitous routings and western carrier are even adding flights to India even though Indian carriers do not follow the Russia airspace embargoes and can fly a route 90 minutes to 2 hours faster
The irony is that S. Korea and Taiwan are seeing surges in travel as the economy and as Singapore increasing takes the larger financial center role that has been held by HKG.
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Throwawayname Guest
August 8, 2024, 8:46 am
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6 more repliesVirgin's easternmost destination is India, and I suspect they only fly there because they can pick up connecting traffic from/to the USA. PVG was their only Far Eastern route- the decision to cut it seems much more likely to be related to their overall strategy than to anything to do with their assessment of the local market.
VS is still scheduled to start ICN, last time I checked, but the Virgin Atlantic model always will struggle to fill traffic compared to BA.
and, yes, they do carry a lot of traffic from the US to India via LHR between their own flights and those of DL.
ICN is only being done as a concession for the KE/OZ merger and probably getting subsidised by Korean Air. VS have no real interest in flying anywhere outside North America (DXB, CPT, MLE and the Caribbean destinations rely on Virgin Holidays packages as opposed to ticket sales)- they even pulled the GRU route twice.
I will believe it when I see it. To be frank, after the debacle of their on-off-on again-off again LHR-GRU launch I don't have high hopes.
I imagine China is still subsidizing airlines to visit the world to some extent. Unclear that routes like PEK-MAD-HAV/GRU, PEK-BUD and yes, 2x daily PEK-LHR are financially successful on their own as much as required/paid for by the Chinese government
@quorumcall
HAV is a “communist comrade” route while GRU is for BRICS. They are all supported by the central government. Or in Chinese, we call it “political routes”.
Subsidized routes to the UK and US are different. For Tier 1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai and sometimes though rarely some Tier 2 cities like Chengdu, it’s making money. For others, they are supported by the provinces or cities to “boost internationality of the...
@quorumcall
HAV is a “communist comrade” route while GRU is for BRICS. They are all supported by the central government. Or in Chinese, we call it “political routes”.
Subsidized routes to the UK and US are different. For Tier 1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai and sometimes though rarely some Tier 2 cities like Chengdu, it’s making money. For others, they are supported by the provinces or cities to “boost internationality of the city” or letting local officials look good. All “subsidized routes” we are talking about are in this range.
Tim, while I agree with Ben’s general assertion that this route cancellation is a shocking statement on the drop in demand for China travel, and the general change in geopolitical tone, it’s not fair to compare Tokyo or Seoul routes to PEK.
Japanese and South Korean carriers are also banned from Russian airspace, so the flight time is essentially identical on any European carrier vs local Japanese and South Korean carriers. This is obv not...
Tim, while I agree with Ben’s general assertion that this route cancellation is a shocking statement on the drop in demand for China travel, and the general change in geopolitical tone, it’s not fair to compare Tokyo or Seoul routes to PEK.
Japanese and South Korean carriers are also banned from Russian airspace, so the flight time is essentially identical on any European carrier vs local Japanese and South Korean carriers. This is obv not the case with China, and Beijing from a geographic perspective suffered one of the most punishing detours for European carriers.
Just route the pax through Doha.
They have a joint venture with Qatar Airways, and as they should, they'll rely on this more.
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6 more repliesThat's the thing, there's no point offering connections via London and getting pax to/from Scandinavia, Italy, Romania etc to backtrack when they work so closely with an airline that can offer a better service while also likely benefitting from a more attractive cost base. BA and VS can only really be competitive on US and Canadian routes which enjoy high yields as well as good aircraft utilisation (except maybe the Pacific coast routes).
No thank you I don't want the chance to sit next to yayah sinwar.
Yahya*
I suspect he's got sufficient funding to fly privately.
Maybe, not the only reason to not connect through Qatar right now though. If you're gonna use a middle east connection just go through Dubai, more destinations available and less risky.
I usually fly Star Alliance anyway, and their options to Asia are much better. Connecting in the middle east is only really worth it when flying in Y and getting the opportunity to stretch out and possibly even do a little stopover and stay in an hotel for a night or two in order to recover.
Furthermore, they have an existing joint venture with CZ, who also fly LHR-PKX. Also, I don't think the JV with QR covers China
I mean, a flight that wasn't daily to a business destination was unlikely to last...
Minimal feed from either end too.
So BA has to rely nearly 100% on O&D pax, so there is only so much capacity that can be sustained.
I don't think it's due to a reduction in demand between Europe and Asia / China. More likely, the cancellation is due to the closure of the Russian airspace to European Airlines and a massive expansion of Chinese airlines, which are allowed to use the Russian airspace, into Europe. Carsten Spohr said that Chinese airlines have increased their capacity between Europe and China by three-digit percentage in 2024. This probably creates yield pressure on all...
I don't think it's due to a reduction in demand between Europe and Asia / China. More likely, the cancellation is due to the closure of the Russian airspace to European Airlines and a massive expansion of Chinese airlines, which are allowed to use the Russian airspace, into Europe. Carsten Spohr said that Chinese airlines have increased their capacity between Europe and China by three-digit percentage in 2024. This probably creates yield pressure on all European airlines on their routes to Asia.
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6 more replies@ GFL -- They've increased their capacity by 100%+ compared to the year before, maybe, but certainly not compared to pre-pandemic. Chinese airlines are still only operating a small percentage of their pre-pandemic long haul networks.
Yes, Chinese carriers have an advantage by being able to use Russian airspace, but they also lack connectivity in London. For this upcoming winter, Air China currently has plans to operate two daily flights in the market, while China...
@ GFL -- They've increased their capacity by 100%+ compared to the year before, maybe, but certainly not compared to pre-pandemic. Chinese airlines are still only operating a small percentage of their pre-pandemic long haul networks.
Yes, Chinese carriers have an advantage by being able to use Russian airspace, but they also lack connectivity in London. For this upcoming winter, Air China currently has plans to operate two daily flights in the market, while China Southern has plans to operate one daily flight.
Air China also has a daily flight between PEK and LGW, which I believe was added post pandemic.
I honestly don't know how their current capacity into Europe compares to their capacity pre-pandemic. I don't think that flights into LHR are representative due to the slot restrictions in LHR and LHR not being the most attractive airport to connect to China. Looking at other hubs like Frankfurt, I noticed that Chinese carriers have increased capacity even compared to pre-pandemic levels.
BA is back to 2x daily to Tokyo (with JV partner JL also flying another 2X daily) and is also about to relaunch BKK and KUL. It’s absolutely a China issue, not just a Russia airspace issue. Business and tourism links between the West and China are being severed everywhere.
Japanese airlines are also banned from Russian airspace. Therefore, they don't have the same advantage like the Chinese carriers do. Flights to BKK und KUL wouldn't have used the Russian airspace anyway. And only Western airlines are cutting flights to China. Chinese airlines are still increasing their capacity into Europe.
Flights from London to BKK and KUL would normally fly over both Russian and Ukrainian airspace (presumably you forgot MH17 happened?), although the detour is admittedly quite a bit less than to TYO or China.
As has been posted above, Chinese airlines are still increasing their capacity to Europe from virtually nothing to, what, 50% of what it was pre-COVID?
Chinese carriers are at 107% capacity compared to 2019 on China-Europe routes, while European carriers are at 46%. With NA routes still heavily restricted, Chinese carriers have huge numbers of widebodies to spare.
Yes they did in the 1970s, Cathay Pacific was not allowed into the route until the 1980s
I don't think BA ever flew 3x daily to HKG?
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5 more repliesBelieve they didn’t as well. Ben is right about A380 but at the time iirc it was 2x daily, maybe a little more but never 3x daily, with one flight operated by A380
BA did actually operate 3x daily until around the financial crash in 2010/11. It was 2x B744, and 1x B772 back then!
It was three daily for many years. At one point two A380 daily services and a 777.
@ Alvin | YTHK -- Sorry, I mixed something up, my mistake. Will fix the post now, thanks!
I remember them flying x3 LHR - HKG.
British Airways did in fact operate 3 daily flights between Heathrow and Hong Kong at one time. Flight numbers to HKG were BA025, BA027 and BA031.