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What will happen to aircraft manufacturers?
With Qantas suspending all aircrafts deliveries indefinitely I am sure others will follow if not most. If (as I assume) the production will reduce dramatically or come to a halt, what can happen to Boeing and Airbus? Could they be at risk of bankruptcy? Would a government bail (if) be enough eventually?
Hah, I was actually thinking about this the other day. Not sure about what would happen to Boeing should things get worse, but it’s almost certain that there will be some sort of government intervention on Airbus should they approach bankruptcy; given that 1) [URL=’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/air-france-airbus-lining-up-for-government-backed-bailouts’]they have already requested a loan[/URL] from the French government while there seems to be the intention to do the same with the German government and 2) European governments of the countries with Airbus factories (namely the UK, Spain, France and Germany) have always been fairly active with Airbus in the past.
The way I see it, this couldn’t have happened at a worse time for Airbus… they seemed to have the upper hand on Boeing (especially on narrow-bodies), but with demand at an all time lowest and aircraft deferrals, at first sight it seems like they’re both in a similarly complicated situation. That being said, I don’t think it will be over for either of them, especially with aircraft like the A321LR in production and operation as well as the -XLR variant on the horizon. Narrow-bodies capable of flying some long-haul routes will be even more important than before. IMO if Boeing can manage to get the 737MAX or a redeveloped 757 back in the air within the next couple of years, they should be alright.
[QUOTE=”Ben Holz, post: 69781, member: 1601″]Hah, I was actually thinking about this the other day…[/QUOTE]
Ben, I think it goes worse than that. Not only most airlines will stop new deliveries, but Delta will retire all its B777 and will keep the older B767, for the reason that the older planes are already paid. This adds to the stop of new deliveries. It will take more than a year or two to see airlines shopping for new planes. So what will happen in the meanwhile? That’s my question. Even if the governments will bail them out. We are talking about years not months. How long will they be able to last with a bail out? Or how much will it take to keep them afloat for such a long time? Will countries agree to do that?