United Boosts Boeing 787-10 Order, Converts 787-9: An Obvious Upgauge

United Boosts Boeing 787-10 Order, Converts 787-9: An Obvious Upgauge

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Quite frankly, I’m really confused how this is only happening now, as this seems like the obvious choice…

United Airlines focuses on larger Dreamliner variant

United Airlines currently has an all-Boeing wide body fleet, including 767s, 777s, and 787s. The 767s and 777s will be retired eventually — 767s will likely leave the fleet before the 777s, which will definitely be around for a decade plus. But when it comes to fleet renewal, the airline is entirely reliant on 787s.

United flies all three variants of the 787 Dreamliner, and currently has 80 of them. As it stands, the Star Alliance carrier has 12 787-8s, 47 787-9s, and 21 787-10s. United has 141 787s on order, and up until now, they’ve all been for the 787-9 variant.

United has 140+ Boeing 787s on order

I’ve found that to be really odd — while the 787-9 is the best of those planes for ultra long haul economics, the 787-10 has amazing unit costs, and can cover United’s entire network to Europe and South America, and even many parts of North Asia.

That brings us to the latest update, as reported by The Air Current. United has just converted 56 of its 787-9 orders into 787-10s, and those deliveries are supposed to start as of 2028. With that update:

  • United now has 85 787-9s on order, which means the airline will eventually have 132 of these in its fleet, including the 47 existing planes
  • United now has 56 787-10s on order, which means the airline will eventually have 77 of these in its fleet, including the 21 existing planes

Will there be more to United’s long haul fleet renewal?

The 787-9 is an incredible aircraft for United’s ultra long haul network, as the airline operates (by far) the most ultra long haul flights of any US carrier. So there’s no denying that United needs a sizable fleet of those planes. However, there’s simply no reason to not focus on the 787-10 for the rest of the network, including for Europe and South America.

The incremental operating costs of the 787-10 over the 787-9 are minimal, while the capacity boost is significant. Even if United doesn’t necessarily want planes to be much higher capacity in terms of passenger count, these planes can just be configured in a premium layout, with a lot of business class and premium economy seats, since that’s all the rage nowadays (like United is doing with its new 787-9s, which have just 222 seats).

Bigger planes are good for more premium seats!

I wouldn’t be surprised if these 787-10s eventually replace the 767s that United currently flies to European destinations like Frankfurt (FRA) and London (LHR), since they seem good for those kinds of missions.

I think the big mystery remains whether United has other plans for its long haul fleet renewal, beyond the 787. In other words, will United order the Boeing 777X or Airbus A350 at some point?

  • The Boeing 777X seems unlikely, as it’s just “too much plane” for a US airline, at least based on their current strategies of having so many hubs
  • The Airbus A350 wouldn’t be surprising at some point, especially a plane like the Airbus A350-1000, given its great economics and range
Could United also look at the Airbus A350?

Bottom line

United Airlines has just converted 56 Boeing Dreamliner orders from the 787-9 to the 787-10. The airline had 141 787-9s on order, with (up until now) no plans to acquire 787-10s beyond the current 21 that are in the fleet. It makes perfect sense for United to focus more on the 787-10, given its extra capacity and great per-seat economics.

The 787-10 doesn’t have the range of the 787-9, but it’s sufficient for Europe, South America, and North Asia, which covers much of United’s network.

What do you make of United’s Dreamliner order update?

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  1. iamhere Guest

    What about not having as many different types of planes because of repairs and spare part costs

  2. Tim Dunn Diamond

    sources inside UA indicate the company is moving forward w/ retiring the Pratt powered 777-200s, starting w/ the 200As, some of which are the first 777s delivered.
    By starting to retire some of the older aircraft, UA can harvest engine parts to support the Pratt powered 777-200ER fleet over the next 3-5 years.

    UA's domestic narrowbody strategy is likely to shrink.

    This order to more 787-10s conversion has to be seen within UA's...

    sources inside UA indicate the company is moving forward w/ retiring the Pratt powered 777-200s, starting w/ the 200As, some of which are the first 777s delivered.
    By starting to retire some of the older aircraft, UA can harvest engine parts to support the Pratt powered 777-200ER fleet over the next 3-5 years.

    UA's domestic narrowbody strategy is likely to shrink.

    This order to more 787-10s conversion has to be seen within UA's recognition it has to replace capacity more than grow its fleet or network, a strategy change which I have said for years would be coming.

    1. rebel Diamond

      You also criticized UA for not retiring aircraft especially the older WBs as opposed to DL so if true you must think this is good thing for UA's business, right? We all know how much you love those seats in 772A's FC, and now UA's fleet age will fall.

    2. Tim Dunn Diamond

      I'm not sure how you reconcile the two realities that you want to argue with.

      I criticized UA for not retiring aircraft as it was go, go, go on growth. Aircraft and engines have life limits. UA has been pushing beyond the limits on Pratt powered 777s for years.

      So, I am quite happy to see UA beginning to retire some of their older aircraft which will start w/ some of the 777s and then...

      I'm not sure how you reconcile the two realities that you want to argue with.

      I criticized UA for not retiring aircraft as it was go, go, go on growth. Aircraft and engines have life limits. UA has been pushing beyond the limits on Pratt powered 777s for years.

      So, I am quite happy to see UA beginning to retire some of their older aircraft which will start w/ some of the 777s and then have to include the 767s.

      The "downside" is for you people that always believed that all of these massive UA 787 deliveries will be used for growth. 2/3 or more of UA's 787s remaining to be delivered will need to be used for replacement of older aircraft which means their international growth rate is not likely to be higher than DL's.

    3. rebel Diamond

      LTD, "So, I am quite happy to see UA beginning to retire some of their older aircraft which will start w/ some of the 777s and then have to include the 767s."

      Excellent LTD.

      LTD, "2/3 or more of UA's 787s remaining to be delivered will need to be used for replacement of older aircraft which means their international growth rate is not likely to be higher than DL's."

      And we were doing so well...

      LTD, "So, I am quite happy to see UA beginning to retire some of their older aircraft which will start w/ some of the 777s and then have to include the 767s."

      Excellent LTD.

      LTD, "2/3 or more of UA's 787s remaining to be delivered will need to be used for replacement of older aircraft which means their international growth rate is not likely to be higher than DL's."

      And we were doing so well there for a second. UA has 231 wide body aircraft with 184 on order of which about 100 will be delivered before DL's first 78X while DL has 177 widebodies with 56 on order with only 26 coming in the next five years.

      Sorry, your dog don't hunt.

    4. Tim Dunn Diamond

      You, as usual, take a couple data points and then take them out of context and distort and ignore what you don't like

      DL has 50 widebodies on option and they will certainly exercise those options. AA and DL both have figured out it is not necessary to place massive orders in order to get decent delivery positions; in fact, Kirby's argument was that UA had to place such a large order for 787s so...

      You, as usual, take a couple data points and then take them out of context and distort and ignore what you don't like

      DL has 50 widebodies on option and they will certainly exercise those options. AA and DL both have figured out it is not necessary to place massive orders in order to get decent delivery positions; in fact, Kirby's argument was that UA had to place such a large order for 787s so other airlines could not get delivery positions and yet AA's most recent 787 order will start deliveries before UA's deliveries are back on track w/ Boeing

      second, you have no idea how far out UA's orderbook goes but it is well beyond the early 2030s which simply means that UA will have to replace all of its 777-200/ERs and 767s before their current 787 orderbook runs out.

      third, you and your mini friend love to say that capacity is measured in ASMs and yet DL's 35Ks and 787s will generate 50% or more ASMs per plane than the 767s that they are replacing.

      and, finally, you still can't grasp that UA is trying to run a business that they claim will financially match DL; of course, you turn that into beating DL and ignore the fact that UA will miss DL's earnings for 2025 by 20% and they won't match, let alone exceed them, in 2026.
      UA absolutely tanked its revenue performance worldwide in the 3rd quarter. They got the message loud and clear that they cannot throw capacity into the market and increase earnings because it hasn't worked and won't work.
      UA will be slowing its growth and they will use high percentages of its aircraft deliveries for fleet replacement.

      I am so looking forward to seeing UA's fleet plan for 2026

    5. rebel Diamond

      I love it. Before this order you repeatedly said orders don't matter, but now orders with deliveries starting in five years are important and you say even options are too.

      LTD, "DL has 50 widebodies on option and they will certainly exercise those options.
      UA has 50 787s on option and they will certainly exercise those options.

      LTD, " in fact, Kirby's argument was that UA had to place such a large order...

      I love it. Before this order you repeatedly said orders don't matter, but now orders with deliveries starting in five years are important and you say even options are too.

      LTD, "DL has 50 widebodies on option and they will certainly exercise those options.
      UA has 50 787s on option and they will certainly exercise those options.

      LTD, " in fact, Kirby's argument was that UA had to place such a large order for 787s so other airlines could not get delivery positions and yet AA's most recent 787 order will start deliveries before UA's deliveries are back on track w/ Boeing."

      Because AA ordered those 787s in 2018, UA in 2022 and DL in 2026. And again, wide body aircraft orders/options: AA: 19/0, DL: 56/50, UA 184/50. I think even you can figure it out, but you continue to play dumb.

      LTD, "UA is trying to run a business that they claim will financially match DL"

      They are running the business to make historic gains in market share while other airlines are well back in the line for aircraft while paying down debt and making nearly industry-leading profits. Once they gain share and growth slows top profits will be paramount.

    6. Tim Dunn Diamond

      you manipulate and distort and then say I lie?

      Your last paragraph is all we need to discuss because you fundamentally don't even understand what your bosses are doing.

      They are NOT running United solely for market share growth. They are running UAL in order to generate returns for their owners, the stockholders.

      UAL execs have consistently pushed the growth strategy as hard as they can without tanking revenue performance but the 3rd quarter proved...

      you manipulate and distort and then say I lie?

      Your last paragraph is all we need to discuss because you fundamentally don't even understand what your bosses are doing.

      They are NOT running United solely for market share growth. They are running UAL in order to generate returns for their owners, the stockholders.

      UAL execs have consistently pushed the growth strategy as hard as they can without tanking revenue performance but the 3rd quarter proved they went over the deep end on growth - and their RASM performance was the worst in the industry.

      DAL still had the 2nd highest amount of absolute growth but posted far better revenue metrics - and Wall Street noticed. UAL is worth less now relative to DAL than it was 6 months ago. Wall Street hates market share and massive capacity growth that harms a company or the industry financially.

      Your self-image is clearly and so completely wrapped up in UAL being #1 in everything you can think of but UAL's high growth strategy is not generating the best results.

      There will not be the growth that you want, UAL has to replace old aircraft it chose not to replace when AA and DL were getting rid of older aircraft, and UA will be better off financially by slowing down growth.

      You can argue all you want but that is where UAL is going.

    7. rebel Diamond

      You have literally been wrong on metric after metric. You use arguments that you mocked five minutes prior. The only consensus on this and other sites is you are a nuisance and are wrong more than a broken clock.

      But in one regard you are indeed exceptional. You are most impressive is your use of every known fallacy in your pathetic arguments.

      Here is a list of the fallacies of which you are...

      You have literally been wrong on metric after metric. You use arguments that you mocked five minutes prior. The only consensus on this and other sites is you are a nuisance and are wrong more than a broken clock.

      But in one regard you are indeed exceptional. You are most impressive is your use of every known fallacy in your pathetic arguments.

      Here is a list of the fallacies of which you are without peer in online Delta cheerleading.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

    8. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Your identity is wrapped up in UA being on top of everything - including things that their execs have said is not their goal.

      UAL's growth is slowing; over the Pacific, it is very likely that DL's growth will CONTINUE to outpace UA's even as DL's profits grow because of more efficient and capable aircraft.

      Accept life as it really exists and not as you want it to be.

    9. rebel Diamond

      You're great at projection too.

  3. Mary Guest

    They need to upgrade to a more premium A350.

    The 787s are mid-body airplanes and are too narrow for passenger comfort on long-hauls, especially on Asia routes (16+ hours to Singapore in winter).

    1. 1990 Guest

      Shoutout to those 18+ nonstops on SQ21-24!

    2. AeroB13a Diamond

      1990, as much as I like flying SQ and as much as I like the A350 ride, SQ21-24 would not appeal to me. Furthermore, if I had to endure the flight in J, with she who must be obeyed in the captain’s chair, I might well loose the will to live …. :-)

  4. This comes to mind Guest

    What happens when the 777s go? There may be time to ponder that. But, for a longer route, their 772ERs can do it with 276 pax and the 773ERs with 350. The 789 has 222/257 pax. I'm guessing the have routes that need a 777 or 789 because of the distance. The 78X gives UA 318 seats, but can't do the >11,700km routes. Either go to a 777X or get ~330 pax on the A350,...

    What happens when the 777s go? There may be time to ponder that. But, for a longer route, their 772ERs can do it with 276 pax and the 773ERs with 350. The 789 has 222/257 pax. I'm guessing the have routes that need a 777 or 789 because of the distance. The 78X gives UA 318 seats, but can't do the >11,700km routes. Either go to a 777X or get ~330 pax on the A350, with a range that beats out, by far, any current UA jet. Seems simple you gain another model while losing the older one.

  5. Nino69 Guest

    Hello Ben, how about you and your moderator give old Timmy D a time out. It’s is exhausting to all of us reading his nonsense & drivel anytime you post a something he can extol the virtues of DL or his caustic political views which is obvious from his comments on the MSP ICE story from yesterday.

    I know you won’t reply to this or even reply but, I’m done reading the cesspool this...

    Hello Ben, how about you and your moderator give old Timmy D a time out. It’s is exhausting to all of us reading his nonsense & drivel anytime you post a something he can extol the virtues of DL or his caustic political views which is obvious from his comments on the MSP ICE story from yesterday.

    I know you won’t reply to this or even reply but, I’m done reading the cesspool this blog has become, the state of we are in in this country that has permeated this blog as well. I’m one voice but it’s time to take a stand on this nonsense.

    1. Tim Dunn Diamond

      there are civil and informative conversations going on.

      Just because they go over your head doesn't mean there aren't people that benefit from them.

      Motion denied.

      Read Ben's articles if you don't like the comment section. Just stop before he asks "what do you think" ...which he usually does and which indicates comments are part of the reason he writes. Ben can engage in civil discussion and reading... how about you try it?

    2. Nino69 Guest

      F-OFF OFF YOU A$$HOLE, YOU HAVE ZERO REDEEMING QUALITIES WHO LIVES THEIR LIFE AS A HAPLESS INTERNET TROLL

    3. AeroB13a Diamond

      Nino69, shouting obscenities at others clearly indicates that you are an individual of very little brain. You possess absolutely no self control and evidently endeavour to be everything which you accuse others to be.
      Bad form old bean, yes?

    4. 1990 Guest

      I’d like to vote in-favor of not censoring anyone; let Tim say what he wants. The answer to speech that you disagree with is… MORE speech. Keep it going. More is more. Happy weekend, fellas!

    5. AeroB13a Diamond

      1990, you are absolutely right for once. :-)
      If the foul mouthed imbeciles stopped posting their childish and illiterate comments, then my poor brain cell would suffer through lack of exercise. One does enjoy a good retort to the revolting proletariat.

    6. This comes to mind Guest

      You know Tim puts his name on each post. When he and another get into a back and forth that doesn't interest me, I find it easy to JUST NOT READ THEM. Might I suggest that approach to you?

    7. AeroB13a Diamond

      Nino69, you post …. “I’m done reading the cesspool this blog has become”, then in your next post you post …. “F-OFF OFF YOU A$$HOLE, YOU HAVE ZERO REDEEMING QUALITIES WHO LIVES THEIR LIFE AS A HAPLESS INTERNET TROLL”

      Can you not comprehend Nino69, that it is the foul individuals like you who bring absolutely nothing to this blog. You contribute nothing and clearly when you do post it is unmitigated disgusting hogwash. Do climb...

      Nino69, you post …. “I’m done reading the cesspool this blog has become”, then in your next post you post …. “F-OFF OFF YOU A$$HOLE, YOU HAVE ZERO REDEEMING QUALITIES WHO LIVES THEIR LIFE AS A HAPLESS INTERNET TROLL”

      Can you not comprehend Nino69, that it is the foul individuals like you who bring absolutely nothing to this blog. You contribute nothing and clearly when you do post it is unmitigated disgusting hogwash. Do climb back into your hovel and carry out your keyboard warrior act elsewhere, yes?

    8. Nino69 Guest

      To All,

      Apologies only for my rude outburst so, let be a bit more eloquent.

      Recent developments on the blog have prompted significant concern by me and I’m sure others. Notably, Tim Dunn appears to have taken control of the blog with actions that seem focused on undermining active debate and open dialogue only to promote DL and consider all other airlines inferior.

      Active debate and open discussion are essential to the health of...

      To All,

      Apologies only for my rude outburst so, let be a bit more eloquent.

      Recent developments on the blog have prompted significant concern by me and I’m sure others. Notably, Tim Dunn appears to have taken control of the blog with actions that seem focused on undermining active debate and open dialogue only to promote DL and consider all other airlines inferior.

      Active debate and open discussion are essential to the health of any online community. When the moderation or management of a platform shifts toward celebrating these exchanges, it can have a chilling effect on participation, the sharing of diverse perspectives, and the overall quality of discourse. The perception that Tim Dunn’s primary intention is to undermine dialogue is deeply troubling to those who value open communication.

      Blogs thrive on the free flow of ideas, constructive criticism, and respectful debate. When a single individual exerts disproportionate control, especially with the aim of stifling conversation, it risks alienating contributors and diminishing the blog’s credibility as a forum for meaningful engagement.

      Here are a few things Ben and the moderators could do for the of us:

      • Encourage transparent moderation policies to ensure all voices can be heard.

      • Foster an environment where respectful debate is welcomed, not focused on one individual.

      • Consider implementing checks and balances in blog management to prevent unilateral control.

      •Solicit feedback from community members to understand their concerns and restore trust.

      Although, had I written the above initially, those with scolding responses would have read right over it. So, have a long think on your responses to my unprofessional comments versus someone responding with thought and I’ll see if anyone responds to this.

      Thanks

  6. ChrisNewYork Guest

    The -10 is such a great airplane. I initially thought the range limits were pretty severe but it is true the use case is GREAT for most of the routes envisioned. I'm a regular user of the BA -10 and the long cabin has so many exciting opportunities for product differentiation. And yes, amazing costs for for such a big airplane

  7. LOA Gold

    Good to see the 787-10 having its moment. With the increased performance -10s starting to roll out, I wonder if airlines are just trying to lock in their slots for the aircraft. Would not surprise me if more orders start coming in for the model.

    1. Tim Dunn Diamond

      AS and DL have both ordered 787-10s since the first of the year; other airlines will certainly order more, esp. Asian carriers where the 787-10's high capacity and great economics make the plane very suitable for intra-Asia flying.

  8. AeroB13a Diamond

    The bottom line is folks …. as Boeing has failed time and time again to deliver upon their order book, will Ben’s son ever see UA (or anyone else), receive any or all of their Boeing orders?

    1. rebel Diamond

      Boeing is doing very well now. Ortberg has righted the ship and the BA stock price shows that and it's still a buy IMO.

    2. AeroB13a Diamond

      Actually rebel, a few moments ago it was still down don’t you know?

    3. rebel Diamond

      No Kidding? A momentary dip? Sell, sell! You might want to take a look at the trend. Are you related to LTD by any chance? ;)

    4. Tim Dunn Diamond

      for once, rebel is right.

      BA (Boeing) is up 46% over the last year while Airbus (EADSY in the US) is up 58% +

      I just wrote an article and rated both as BUYS while also saying that Airbus is more likely to reap the benefits of improvements in the supply chain than Boeing which is still working off its backlogs and delays which means they are still paying out customer compensation.

      Boeing is fixing...

      for once, rebel is right.

      BA (Boeing) is up 46% over the last year while Airbus (EADSY in the US) is up 58% +

      I just wrote an article and rated both as BUYS while also saying that Airbus is more likely to reap the benefits of improvements in the supply chain than Boeing which is still working off its backlogs and delays which means they are still paying out customer compensation.

      Boeing is fixing its problems, will likely get the MAX 7 and 10 and possibly the 777X certified in 2026 or early 2027 which will tremendously help its cashflow. Boeing is currently losing almost one dollar for every two dollars in commercial aircraft revenue.

      none of which changes that Airbus and Boeing both are building very good products but they are different enough that there have to be pretty unique reasons for any airline to buy overlapping products.

      I would strongly bet that United buys Rolls Royce engines on its next order of 787s and walks away from the A350 order.

    5. rebel Diamond

      LTD, “ Admit you were wrong and that this is a good time to get Boeing back in your portfolio.”

      I agree with you for once. I think you meant this AeroB13a. I actually own some BA.

    6. UncleRonnie Diamond

      @Tim - you’re in the stock trading game?

    7. Pilot93434 Guest

      I agree that UA will probably walk from the 350s, but disagree that they’d go RR. Why introduce a new engine type, especially with the history of the RR Trent on the 787? The GEnx is the most reliable and popular engine choice. Even BA ditched RR for their -10s

    8. AeroB13a Diamond

      rebel, those with sense or in the know, sold their Boeing holdings quite some time ago. Some of us did retain other U.S. stocks which have far out performed Boeing for us

    9. Tim Dunn Diamond

      rebel,
      Boeing has handedly beat US market indexes over the past year.

      Yes, there are a few companies that have outperformed BA but not many.

      Nividia hasn't. Apple hasn't. not even Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly with their GLP 1 runaway sales drugs has.

      Google (Alphabet) has so, yeah, you could have beaten averages but Boeing was and likely still is a good portfolio choice.

      and let's be clear that Boeing, like United, fell...

      rebel,
      Boeing has handedly beat US market indexes over the past year.

      Yes, there are a few companies that have outperformed BA but not many.

      Nividia hasn't. Apple hasn't. not even Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly with their GLP 1 runaway sales drugs has.

      Google (Alphabet) has so, yeah, you could have beaten averages but Boeing was and likely still is a good portfolio choice.

      and let's be clear that Boeing, like United, fell badly over a period of years and is improving but they aren't going to immediately return to what they were before or overtake their better-run competitor, Airbus, which isn't having to dig out of a massive hole of its own causing.

      Admit you were wrong and that this is a good time to get Boeing back in your portfolio.

      and is you succeed financially (or those that will own BA stock), airlines will benefit from more and more new airplanes including UA's ability to replace its aging 767 and 777 fleets, including the Pratt 777s for which there simply aren't enough parts to support operation of the fleet for a whole lot longer.

    10. GullAirACK New Member

      United has most certainly overtaken any former version of themselves in every possible way. Performance, leadership and stock price to start. They could peak anytime but the trajectory is still arcing higher. I’d say Delta’s run is more at risk of stabilising… which is still a good thing at the current top. AA has no where to go but up… but will take years to rejoin the pack unless the others stumble badly.

    11. Tim Dunn Diamond

      nobody has ever denied that UA has made dramatic improvements.

      but they simply are not anywhere close to overtaking DL in financial or customer service metrics based on data which is not only available from UA itself but other sources.

      Based on the accurate company estimates below, UA will not overtake DL in earnings in 2026; there simply is no company-provided guidance beyond 2026 or from analysts that is remotely believable.

      and the earnings...

      nobody has ever denied that UA has made dramatic improvements.

      but they simply are not anywhere close to overtaking DL in financial or customer service metrics based on data which is not only available from UA itself but other sources.

      Based on the accurate company estimates below, UA will not overtake DL in earnings in 2026; there simply is no company-provided guidance beyond 2026 or from analysts that is remotely believable.

      and the earnings gap even by the estimates below is still over $1 billion which is almost 20%. 20% is still far from "just about there"

      There is nothing wrong with cheering on a company but there is something very wrong with manipulating data and inserting your own bias to say something that actual, verifiable data does not say

  9. rebel Diamond

    This is a non-story.

    UA always had the flexibility within their 150 787 orders to switch between variants for deliveries outside of 18 months or so. And I doubt UA ordered 150 aircraft without ordering engines. They likely have an option to switch given certain parameters, but why would they not stick with GENx engines unless RR offers some unbelievable deal that also resolves the A359 engine dispute.

    The real story here is how...

    This is a non-story.

    UA always had the flexibility within their 150 787 orders to switch between variants for deliveries outside of 18 months or so. And I doubt UA ordered 150 aircraft without ordering engines. They likely have an option to switch given certain parameters, but why would they not stick with GENx engines unless RR offers some unbelievable deal that also resolves the A359 engine dispute.

    The real story here is how UA and Kirby nailed it making massive orders for 150 787s and over 500 narrow body aircraft during Covid at advantageous terms that puts them in the front of a huge order backlog (5 years). Advantage United.

    1. Tim Dunn Diamond

      so are you saying that Jon Ostrower doesn't know what he is talking about?

      He is far more credible than the other Jon.

      Jon O says that UA has the opportunity to choose engine orders on the 787s due for delivery beyond 2028.

      UA could very well order Rolls Royce engines as Rolls tries to get back into the 787 engine game, a business it has badly blundered as a result of the very poor...

      so are you saying that Jon Ostrower doesn't know what he is talking about?

      He is far more credible than the other Jon.

      Jon O says that UA has the opportunity to choose engine orders on the 787s due for delivery beyond 2028.

      UA could very well order Rolls Royce engines as Rolls tries to get back into the 787 engine game, a business it has badly blundered as a result of the very poor T1000 rollout.
      UA could also extinguish the A350 order.

      and, no, Kirby didn't gain any advantage over any other competitor in massive orders for 787s or MAXs. He cashed in a bunch of customer compensation for previously delayed 787s and MAXs.

      and UA is simply not going to be able to grow at the pace you want and perhaps UA execs hoped because they have no choice but to start retiring their Pratt powered 777 fleet because there simply are not enough parts to support that engine. UA is yet one more engine failure - of which there have been multiple over the years - away from losing use of the entire fleet, as happened after the UA DEN engine failure.

      UA's advantage WAS in the years post covid because it chose not to retire older aircraft. They now have the liability of a much older widebody fleet than AA or DL; airplanes simply don't last forever and maintenance gets even more expensive with age and, as is the case with the Pratt 4000 engines and the IAE engines on the 319/320CEOs, there simply aren't parts to support them.

      Let's see what UA does but I will strongly bet that they will start drawing down their 50 strong PW 777 fleet in the next few years which will slow their growth and then they will have to retire their 767-300s also because of age followed by their 764s. UA will have far less growth capacity than you think.

    2. rebel Diamond

      Ostrower is merely quoting the UA spokesperson. The rest of your post is more of your tired tirade. Your MRO nonsense proves you simply aren't credible.

    3. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Yes, he is quoting the UA salesperson which you didn't bother to read or consult before calling me a liar.

      It is actually quite normal for airlines to not have to make decisions on engines until closer to delivery.

      Rolls Royce is still a possibility for UA 787s - and because the 787 can have engine manufactrers changed after production - it is very possible that UA could not only order Rolls engines on future...

      Yes, he is quoting the UA salesperson which you didn't bother to read or consult before calling me a liar.

      It is actually quite normal for airlines to not have to make decisions on engines until closer to delivery.

      Rolls Royce is still a possibility for UA 787s - and because the 787 can have engine manufactrers changed after production - it is very possible that UA could not only order Rolls engines on future 787s and even change engine types on existing 787s.

      But you clearly didn't know any of that so you launched into a tirade calling me a liar when UA's spox specifically said that the engine order is up for grabs.

      I speak the truth and in your desperate and repeated attempts to make me look bad, you simply prove how ignorant you are of what is going on.

    4. rebel Diamond

      Show me the DL MRO plan of which the CFO is unaware that will turn a sub-$1B, hi-teens margin business into a $5B, 20% margin business "in a couple of years" and I'll be glad to apologize, but you won't because it is obviously a lie that you made up and got caught. And with that complete lack of financial common sense, you writing an article about BA is laughable.

      From DAL's 1/13/26 SEC filing...

      Show me the DL MRO plan of which the CFO is unaware that will turn a sub-$1B, hi-teens margin business into a $5B, 20% margin business "in a couple of years" and I'll be glad to apologize, but you won't because it is obviously a lie that you made up and got caught. And with that complete lack of financial common sense, you writing an article about BA is laughable.

      From DAL's 1/13/26 SEC filing on its MRO.

      https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/doc_earnings/2025/q4/supplemental-info/4Q25-Supplemental-Info.pdf

      Millions... 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025
      MRO Rev $663 .$153 $240 $232 .$201 $826
      MRO Exp $610 ..$140 $228 $212 ..$170 $751

      From DAL's 1/13/26 earnings call

      Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst, Evercore ISI
      Q. Congratulations again. And then, just to switch gears on MRO, maybe, Dan, you're providing increased transparency. Can you speak a little bit about the outlook for that segment? Revenue growth margin expansion, and if there are any capital commitments embedded in the CapEx outlook for this year? Thank you for taking the questions.
      ..........................................................................................................................................
      Daniel C. Janki, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Delta Air Lines

      A. Sure, Duane. Thank you. Quite optimistic about the MRO business. I think they had a really good, 2025. Great commercial wins, building the backlog. I think this is a business that we're excited to see across the $1 billion mark, and one that we continue to hold out and see it as a $2 billion. Then getting to $2 billion, then getting to $3 billion of top line that it can continue to grow.

      This is a business that, where it's positioned, it's high-single digit margins today. It should be mid-teens and one that we've – we have fed it capital. But it's one of those things that you just have to consistently stay after as it relates to both shop capacity, but also repair capability. And how you think about it, it’s something that Delta team is building off a really strong maintenance capability, and that we can extend the third party.

      So, we're quite excited about it. We do think it is one of those elements that truly is unique to Delta and related to our differentiation and durability, and that's why we want to make sure that we provide you that – our investors with that transparency over time.

    5. Tim Dunn Diamond

      You are so desperate to prove me wrong and yet you can't be bothered to read DAL's investor conference presentations since covid.

      DAL has specifically said MRO will be a $5 billion in revenue/$1 billion in profits business.

      Janki is only talking about the next 3 years - but UA isn't even expected to match DL's earnings in 2026 and likely not 2027 but you are fixated on trying to prove that DL's $1 billiion...

      You are so desperate to prove me wrong and yet you can't be bothered to read DAL's investor conference presentations since covid.

      DAL has specifically said MRO will be a $5 billion in revenue/$1 billion in profits business.

      Janki is only talking about the next 3 years - but UA isn't even expected to match DL's earnings in 2026 and likely not 2027 but you are fixated on trying to prove that DL's $1 billiion in profits will never happen?

      Just grow up. You look like the fool that you are because you don't know what you are talking about and can't stand that someone else does.

      UA needs $2.7 billion in profits in the 4th quarter to match DL's profits in 2025. It won't happen.
      Then let's chat after UA settles with its FAs and mechanics. The gap will get wider, not smaller.

      UA just fired a couple loyalty program/credit card execs because this huge increase in revenue that you and UA execs thought was coming is not coming at least not any time soon.

      You cling to fairy tales in your own head because you can't accept that UA is solidly #2 - and much closer to the mid-point between AA and DL earnings than anywhere close to overtaking DL.

      YOU are your own worst enemy - but you at least you have enough other people that you run with who are equally as warped in their thinking.

    6. rebel Diamond

      LTD, "DAL has specifically said MRO will be a $5 billion in revenue/$1 billion in profits business."

      By all means provide the link, and the who, what, where, when?

      You previously said they said it on the 1/13/26 DAL earnings call so I listened to it and searched the transcript. Nope. You were obviously lying and got caught.

    7. Tim Dunn Diamond

      I don't post links.

      If you are so certain I am wrong. You should be capable of doing the research. The 5 year target wasn't on the earnings call. It was in an investor presentation in the past.

      Pro tip: ditch your incessant need to prove me wrong and we could actually get along.
      But you also need to admit that I will speak the truth including that UA is nowhere close based...

      I don't post links.

      If you are so certain I am wrong. You should be capable of doing the research. The 5 year target wasn't on the earnings call. It was in an investor presentation in the past.

      Pro tip: ditch your incessant need to prove me wrong and we could actually get along.
      But you also need to admit that I will speak the truth including that UA is nowhere close based on actual facts - and not your hopes and dreams - to overtake DL financially.

      Accept and state that UA has done a great job of turning itself around but it is solidly #2 among US airline financials - and closer to mid-point between AA and DL than on the verge of overtaking DL.

    8. Paul Guest

      Tim, I notice you contestantly put out “facts” without data to back them up. When questioned, you either don’t respond at all. deflect, or, most surprisingly, say it falls on other people, not you, to provide the data. It’s a strange way to do things.

      I also keep seeing you talk about TPAC profits per seat mile? That is not a measure. You need to talk about yield. DL’s TPAC yields have been falling...

      Tim, I notice you contestantly put out “facts” without data to back them up. When questioned, you either don’t respond at all. deflect, or, most surprisingly, say it falls on other people, not you, to provide the data. It’s a strange way to do things.

      I also keep seeing you talk about TPAC profits per seat mile? That is not a measure. You need to talk about yield. DL’s TPAC yields have been falling as they try, unsuccessfully, to put a dent in UA’s insurmountable lead.

    9. MaxPower Diamond

      So tim
      You were wrong about it being mentioned on the earnings call — called out as wrong for it
      Now you claim it’s from the investor day — but refuse to give a link, much less a slide number?

      Never stop being you… lol
      You might actually get some respect one day if you stopped making things up or used data
      It’s a good thing for you seeking alpha doesn’t require anything of their writers — real name or any financial analyst rating ;)

    10. rebel Diamond

      LTD, “5 year target”

      5 year target? You said, “in a couple of years”. Oh the tangled webs we weave when at first we venture to deceive.

      LTD, “ I don't post links.”

      How convenient. What is really comical is that you think real airline execs would make or communicate such an outrageous financial target for such a mature business. It is clear that your ignorance of airlines and business is boundless.

    11. Tim Dunn Diamond

      and yet you came on here guns ablazing saying that you can't extrapolate the 6 quarters worth of data you saw into $1 billion in profits so you were convinced I was not telling the truth.

      DL has indeed said it.

      and it still doesn't matter how long it takes DL to get to $1 billion in profits because UA is still more than $1 billion in profits behind DL comparing the businesses in which...

      and yet you came on here guns ablazing saying that you can't extrapolate the 6 quarters worth of data you saw into $1 billion in profits so you were convinced I was not telling the truth.

      DL has indeed said it.

      and it still doesn't matter how long it takes DL to get to $1 billion in profits because UA is still more than $1 billion in profits behind DL comparing the businesses in which they DO compete today.

      That $1 billion in profits and $5 billion in extra revenue isn't going to just show up in year 5.

      I'm glad I have given you a new data point to read as you face the reality that your prognostication of UA's profits matching DL's turn out to be far from reality.
      Hey calculus buddy,
      your slopes aren't sloping like you thought they would.

    12. rebel Diamond

      LTD knows, but the Delta CFO is unaware high mature business can fly. Too funny.

  10. 1990 Guest

    All-Boeing wide-body fleet, yet an A350 “looms”? Is that just speculation, or literal order? I mean, glad to see them go with a321neos, but wasn’t aware of anything else. Would love to see it, and a220s, too, ideally.

    1. rebel Diamond

      UA has an order for 45 A359s of which they have repeatedly postponed deliveries that are now schedule for 2030 at the earliest. They can also change those to A35Xs. In fact the order has switched back and forth between those variants.

    2. 1990 Guest

      Thank you, rebel. Good to have those orders in their back pocket.

  11. Ivan Guest

    I don't see UA ordering anytime soon the A350's their 777-300 ER fleet still young.

    1. 1990 Guest

      Yeah, if Boeing could ever actually get 777X into service, I’d’ve expected UA to order those, if they need capacity.

    2. rebel Diamond

      They already have an order for A359s.

  12. Tim Dunn Diamond

    glad you covered this, Ben.

    First, UA is clearly realizing that gauge is more important than range for the vast majority of its network. The 787-10 even with its current lower takeoff weights does fly the Pacific for UA.
    the irony is that UA is upgauging on the upper end of its widebodies while also dying to take delivery of A321XLRs. Given that the XLR has poor takeoff performance, there is no route operationally...

    glad you covered this, Ben.

    First, UA is clearly realizing that gauge is more important than range for the vast majority of its network. The 787-10 even with its current lower takeoff weights does fly the Pacific for UA.
    the irony is that UA is upgauging on the upper end of its widebodies while also dying to take delivery of A321XLRs. Given that the XLR has poor takeoff performance, there is no route operationally that an XLR can do but a widebody cannot. All a competitor has to do is plop a widebody on an XLR route and UA - or AA - which will also use low capacity "premium configured" XLRs will be finished on that route.

    second, UA specifically noted that it is considering Rolls Royce or GE engines on the latest set of orders. UA has already said that Airbus will let them out of the A350 order by converting to other Airbus products such as the A320NEO family. But Rolls only makes widebody engines so UA has to either pay the penalty to Rolls or buy engines from them. The Trent 1000 on the 787 has had a whole lot of problems but Rolls has invested alot to get that engine working again; it is just a no bleed version of what is on the 330NEO.
    Rolls will deal to win the business and will be happy to write off the A350 order in the process. Winning a key customer for the Trent 1000 is far more valuable than having UA stand in line for a decade for A350s.
    There is a very good chance the A350 is no longer an option at UA and they will have Rolls engines on some of their 787s. And the 787 was built to be able to change engine types on in-service aircraft, unlike any other commercial aircraft.

    third, UA realizes that it will play second fiddle to DL and its A350s on ultra long haul flights including over the Pacific and to S. Asia. UA has to keep taking seats off of its 787s - even with higher takeoff weights - in order to approach - let alone match - the range of the A350. There is a very low marginal benefit to add the A350 just to chase that extra 100 seats on 17+ hour flights that UA can't carry compared to the cost of a new fleet type.
    UA jumped on the 787 and it makes the most sense for UA to maximize the 787 family more than to chase the A350.

    In contrast, DL chose the A350 first and it has chosen to become the most capable and efficient long and ultra long haul aircraft. DL is ordering the 787 with GE engines as much to gain the GEnx overhaul deal which will add billions in profit and $1 billion plus in profits via Delta Tech Ops.
    As DL has demonstrated w/ other fleets, complexity works to DL's advantage because of its ability to make money fixing other airlines' engines. DL is the only US airline and one of only a couple of MROs worldwide that has the exclusive authorization to overhaul every in-service new generation western built commercial aircraft engine - which means UA and a whole lot of other US airlines will be directly or indirectly sending their engines and profits to DL

    1. Harold Guest

      lmao i was literally typing "I cant wait for Tim to tell us how the A350 is amazing when DL has it but shitty when UA gets it" but i deleted because I thought nah he won't go that far.

      you are truly beyond parody officially

    2. Eduardo_br Diamond

      In don’t understand why you’re surprised. He can’t help himself. It’s beyond medical intervention by now.

    3. 1990 Guest

      Tim, I’m still surprised Delta came back to Boeing for the 787 orders, even with all the issues over there (was it political pressure, tariffs, after all?); like, a35K should’ve covered nearly all the long-haul, wide-body needs for it (or any) legacy carrier offering intercontinental commercial air travel in the next few decades.

    4. Tim Dunn Diamond

      the 787 was always designed to be a great aircraft. It, like a lot of Boeing products was just poorly executed for about 20 years.
      Boeing is delivering good quality 787s now and is increasing production.

      and, as I have stated, DL's biggest reason for getting the 787 is to get the GE engine contract. The GEnx is already the most sold widebody engine in history and will only grow. DL could have...

      the 787 was always designed to be a great aircraft. It, like a lot of Boeing products was just poorly executed for about 20 years.
      Boeing is delivering good quality 787s now and is increasing production.

      and, as I have stated, DL's biggest reason for getting the 787 is to get the GE engine contract. The GEnx is already the most sold widebody engine in history and will only grow. DL could have passed on the MAX but the LEAP engine on the MAX and as an option on the 320NEO family is the most sold new generation narrowbody engine. The same is true for the GEnx.

      DL's first generation of aircraft engines got them engine maintenance rights on all new generation Rolls Royce widebody engines as well as the Pratt Geared Turbofan.
      This cycle of aircraft orders gives DL MRO rights on GE's engines which are the best selling overall including on both widebody and narrowbody aircraft.

      DL's overhaul revenue will soar as it takes even more share of the overhaul revenue on new generation engines.

      The 787-10 is an incredible CASM machine and more than capable for what DL (and UA and AA) needs for the Atlantic and S. America). Unlike AA and UA which will send their engines to GE or an authorized repair facility - of which DL is the only airline facility in the Americas, that revenue and profits will go into DL's pockets.

    5. Jeremy Guest

      There’s a whole lot of conjecture here like:

      1) DL is going to expand its MRO business to $1B in profits today (that is the goal but they have never done this yet) - will they get enough order volume from into carriers and competitors given the HCOL in the U.S.? I have doubts

      Ironically enough for all of TD’s talk about DL expansion, all the 787 order shows is that:

      UA (and even AA)...

      There’s a whole lot of conjecture here like:

      1) DL is going to expand its MRO business to $1B in profits today (that is the goal but they have never done this yet) - will they get enough order volume from into carriers and competitors given the HCOL in the U.S.? I have doubts

      Ironically enough for all of TD’s talk about DL expansion, all the 787 order shows is that:

      UA (and even AA) intl growth is going to significantly outpace DL until 2030

      DL only has 4 A350-900 (2026) and 20 A350-1000s (starting in 2027) that will be delivered by 2030. The B787-10s will not start arriving until 2031.

      However, DL is also retiring its 29-year old B767-300 fleet by 2030 (37 planes). That alone accounts for just as many seats (~8k) and more frequencies than DL is adding on wide bodies until 2030.

      Further, by the time it’s 2031 and DL starts getting B787-10s, DL’s B767-400 fleet (20 planes) will be an average of 30 years old. Those retirements will also start very soon.

      In comparison, United has a ton of retirements with its over 50 B767-300s, B767-400’s, and B777-200’s, but it also is receiving 30 B787-9s in this order by 2027 and another 50 B787-9/10s by 2031 as part of a top off. That’s in addition to 50 A321XLRs that will predominantly be used for expansion.

      Even AA will not retire any planes and is adding 50 XLRs (2 have arrived; ~15-20 will be used for domestic so ~30 for intl) and another 19 B789-Ps by 2030. JonNYC is rumoring another AA wide body order.

      DL has a dearth of wide body deliveries between 2029-2031, and given fewer planes, there will be a net loss in frequencies. There will be no gaining in long-haul market share vs UA and AA.

      That is nothing to say about profitability though Wall Street expects both UA and AA to have larger earnings improvements in 2026 than DL, but it is ironic and funny to see given how confident you’ve been that DL is going to bridge the intl gap. It’s actually going to grow with AA catching up to DL until 2031 - DL will add a few sexy ultra long-haul routes, but there will be a ton of cuts in the background like in 2026 such as JFK-LGW, JFK-BRU, JFK-GVA, 3-4 frequencies each on JFK-FCO, JFK-BCN, ATL-EDI and ATL-FCO, etc.

    6. Tim Dunn Diamond

      jeremy.
      as usual, you and others of the UA fan club reject the facts that you don't want to believe are true and make up your own if the actual facts don't fit your narrative.

      DL has said that the MRO engine business will deliver $5 billion in revenue and $1 billion in profits. that estimate is now further to the right due to supply chain issues but it will happen.

      UA is one...

      jeremy.
      as usual, you and others of the UA fan club reject the facts that you don't want to believe are true and make up your own if the actual facts don't fit your narrative.

      DL has said that the MRO engine business will deliver $5 billion in revenue and $1 billion in profits. that estimate is now further to the right due to supply chain issues but it will happen.

      UA is one Pratt 777 disaster away from being without 50+ widebodies. I'd love to see them tempt fate but I think their management is smart enough to start retiring those planes which means UA's growth will be cut.

      UA still trails DL in 2025 by $2.7 billion going into 4th quarter and full year earnings. It is an even bigger hill to climb for AA.
      You and rebel love to talk about rates of change until someone accurately points out to you that UA has been saying for a decade that they were going to catch up to DL - and yet they simply have not.

      As for growth, DL managed to add the 2nd most capacity in the 3rd quarter behind only UA. The difference is that DL didn't trash its revenue performance in every global region and lose money flying to Latin America, as it has now done every year post covid.

      the sooner you and rebel and the rest of you UA cubicle dwellers learn to accept reality as it exists - not what you want - and realize what matters in the airline industry which is not incessant growth, the faster this place will get real boring real fast.

    7. Jeremy Guest

      LOL you can't even use the correct earnings figures for DL - you're using the figure that accounts for ~$1.2B in investment gains to buoy DL's numbers. There is no $2.7B earnings gap like-for-like between DL and UA.

      Also nothing to mention on the basic math that DL is going to lag AA and UA's intl growth until 2030?

      Wall Street's EPS projections as of today:

      UA: $10.49 (2025) & $13.07 (2026)
      DL: $7.19...

      LOL you can't even use the correct earnings figures for DL - you're using the figure that accounts for ~$1.2B in investment gains to buoy DL's numbers. There is no $2.7B earnings gap like-for-like between DL and UA.

      Also nothing to mention on the basic math that DL is going to lag AA and UA's intl growth until 2030?

      Wall Street's EPS projections as of today:

      UA: $10.49 (2025) & $13.07 (2026)
      DL: $7.19 (2025) & $8.20 (2026)
      AS: $2.14 (2025) & $5.57 (2026)
      AA: $0.56 (2025) & $1.96 (2026)
      WN: $0.98 (2025) & $3.22 (2026)

      Adjusted for the current # of shares:

      DL (~653M shares): ~$4.70B -> ~$5.35B (+$0.65B)
      UA (~324M shares): ~$3.40B -> ~$4.25B (+$0.85B)
      WN (~517M shares): ~$0.55B -> $1.65B (+$1.10B)
      AA (~660M shares): ~$0.35B -> ~$1.30B (+$0.95B)
      AS (~116M shares): ~$0.25B -> $0.65B (+$0.40B)

      DL continues to be #1, but the gap continues to shrink.

    8. Jeremy Guest

      Not to mention way to have a short memory - DL trashed its own yields on Pacific by over 5% overall in FY25 trying to up-gauge and add capacity. UA was the only one that added significant capacity to LATAM and saw significant yield deterioration as a result - DL held its yields and capacity flat in the region. In TATL, DL saw yield improvement in Q1 and Q4, but yields were hit in Q2...

      Not to mention way to have a short memory - DL trashed its own yields on Pacific by over 5% overall in FY25 trying to up-gauge and add capacity. UA was the only one that added significant capacity to LATAM and saw significant yield deterioration as a result - DL held its yields and capacity flat in the region. In TATL, DL saw yield improvement in Q1 and Q4, but yields were hit in Q2 and especially Q3

      So, no this idea that DL is smartly restraining capacity for yields doesn't hold - where DL is trying to grow capacity significantly (Pacific), they are seeing big yield hits which also goes against what you've claimed that DL will easily and successfully grow the Pacific:

      Q1 2025 yield YoY change:
      LATAM: flat
      Pacific: -7%

      Q2 2025 yield YoY change:
      LATAM: flat
      TATL: -2%
      Pacific: -6%

      Q3 2025 yield YoY change:
      LATAM: +1%
      TATL: -5%
      Pacific: -6%

      Q4 2025 yield YoY change:
      TATL: +2%
      LATAM: flat
      Pacific: -1%

    9. DTWNYC Guest

      @Tim. "third, UA realizes that it will play second fiddle to DL and its A350s on ultra long haul flights including over the Pacific and to S. Asia. UA has to keep taking seats off of its 787s - even with higher takeoff weights - in order to approach - let alone match - the range of the A350."

      And yet, UA is flying ULH flights with the current fleet today, whereas DL is still...

      @Tim. "third, UA realizes that it will play second fiddle to DL and its A350s on ultra long haul flights including over the Pacific and to S. Asia. UA has to keep taking seats off of its 787s - even with higher takeoff weights - in order to approach - let alone match - the range of the A350."

      And yet, UA is flying ULH flights with the current fleet today, whereas DL is still in the dugout. Not sure how the A350 is going to make UA second fiddle when UA already dominates the Pacific and can operate all major business centers nonstop from LAX/SFO, with the fleet they have on property today (allowing for exceptions from the East Coast given the Russia overly exceptions).

      " All a competitor has to do is plop a widebody on an XLR route and UA - or AA - which will also use low capacity "premium configured" XLRs will be finished on that route."

      Airlines have been flying narrow body airplanes TATL for nearly 30 years (not including the 707/DC-8s of yesteryear). There hasn't been one example that I can think of that an airline was driven off a route because they flew a 757 and the competition flew a widebody. The XLRs are to be used for secondary and tertiary markets, and supplemental frequencies to larger hub markets. UA is not going to suddenly replace the 767s to LHR with XLRs. Plus it's already happening today with IB/EI/SK/TP/BO/AA/AC/UA.

    10. rebel Diamond

      DTWNYC, "And yet, UA is flying ULH flights with the current fleet today, whereas DL is still in the dugout. Not sure how the A350 is going to make UA second fiddle when UA already dominates the Pacific"

      And the DL A35Xs have been delayed repeatedly. They might get one by the end of 2027 if they don't screw up the interior certifications like they did on their A321NEOs.

      UA ULH routes
      Block......Route
      ...

      DTWNYC, "And yet, UA is flying ULH flights with the current fleet today, whereas DL is still in the dugout. Not sure how the A350 is going to make UA second fiddle when UA already dominates the Pacific"

      And the DL A35Xs have been delayed repeatedly. They might get one by the end of 2027 if they don't screw up the interior certifications like they did on their A321NEOs.

      UA ULH routes
      Block......Route
      17h 40m SFO-SIN 2x/day
      17h 35m IAH-SYD
      17h 10m DEL-EWR
      16h 20m JNB-EWR
      16h 10m CPT-IAD
      16h 05m LAX-HKG 2x/day
      15h 55m SFO-ADL
      15h 55m LAX-MEL
      15h 55m SFO-MEL
      15h 40m SFO-HKG 2x/day

    11. Tim Dunn Diamond

      and yet, you still can't grasp that the number of routes that are 15 hours or longer has nothing to do with the discussion.

      The amount of payload those aircraft can carry at those lengths does matter.

      The A350 in both versions is more capable of carrying more payload further. That is just a fact.

      UA is pulling seats off of its 787s and blocking seats on existing flights to get that range.

      and...

      and yet, you still can't grasp that the number of routes that are 15 hours or longer has nothing to do with the discussion.

      The amount of payload those aircraft can carry at those lengths does matter.

      The A350 in both versions is more capable of carrying more payload further. That is just a fact.

      UA is pulling seats off of its 787s and blocking seats on existing flights to get that range.

      and the A350-1000 even in DL"s low density rumored configuration will seat 75-100 more passengers than UA's low density 787 configurations.

      UA went with the 787 and they will pay the price in the ability to carry the same payload that DL can carry on either version of the latest 350s on the longest flight.
      but because you incessantly need to argue, you are incapable of admitting what everyone else knows which is that the A350 is a more capable ultra long range aircraft.

      jeremy,
      thanks for proving EXACTLY my point. UA is NOT closing the profit gap with DL in 2025, your own copied guidance says they won't in 2026 and there is no guidance for 2027 or beyond from any US airline.

      And UA's guidance does not include increased labor costs for an FA and mechanic settlement which UA execs say is coming.

      You make up the facts you want, reject the facts you don't like and then wonder why you and your ilk are so easy to pick off.

      Talk about your preference for UA's wine menu but stay away from facts because it is obvious you are incapable of accurately handling them which is why I have such a field day taking you apart.

      and you realize that DL's profits including on its smaller international network far exceed UA's?
      DL has the cash to add what it wants on top of what is clearly working better than UA - but you all have proven while hiding under your cubicles that you can't admit that UA really is second fiddle to DL in the metrics that really matter and you love to talk about.

    12. rebel Diamond

      If UA needed the A35X they wouldn't have delayed their order repeatedly. You are grasping at straws and wishfully thinking to say the least.

    13. Paul Guest

      UA is “pulling seats” off the 787s, economy seats while adding huge amounts of Polaris and premium economy seats.

      The revenue they pull in on these new configurations will be huge and the premium offerings will be so much more than what DL has.

    14. Tim Dunn Diamond

      rebel,
      UA had no way of knowing what the A350 would become. It was only post-covid that Airbus said it would turn the A350-1000 into a 20 hour airplane. DL doesn't want a 20 hour airplane like QF but DL wants a 300 seat 18 hour aircraft (in the air, not block) and the 35K will do it.

      UA bet on the 787 which is a great plane but it is simply not...

      rebel,
      UA had no way of knowing what the A350 would become. It was only post-covid that Airbus said it would turn the A350-1000 into a 20 hour airplane. DL doesn't want a 20 hour airplane like QF but DL wants a 300 seat 18 hour aircraft (in the air, not block) and the 35K will do it.

      UA bet on the 787 which is a great plane but it is simply not anywhere close to capable of doing what the 350 can do.

      I'm not why you feel the need to argue so incessantly about it... it is exactly what happened with the 737 vs. A320NEO family.
      UA ordered the A320NEO family but it makes much less sense for them to order the A350.

      But if they do, it will just put money in DL's pocket because DL will overhaul a higher percentage of Rolls Royce Trent XWB engines than they will of GENxs

      Paul,
      and yet UA still doesn't generate the profits per seat mile across the Pacific that DL does which says that UA is not getting the revenue you think they are.

      The sooner you admit that UA is pulling seats not because there is great Polaris demand but because the 787 just doesn't have the range that UA wants and the A350 has, the sooner we can move on to the next subject.

    15. rebel Diamond

      I believe the range was set in June of 2017 and was well known to all the customers well before then, but nice try.

    16. Tim Dunn Diamond

      Qantas said it wanted a 20 hour widebody in 2017, selected Airbus in 2019 and Airbus has yet to deliver the project Sunrise A350-1000s which will contain the extra fuel capacity and increased MTOW.

      DL ordered the A350-1000 2 years ago as part of its 2023 full year earnings call because DL knew that the fuel and MTOW increases will be available on other 35Ks besides for QF.

      and if UA knew that the 35K...

      Qantas said it wanted a 20 hour widebody in 2017, selected Airbus in 2019 and Airbus has yet to deliver the project Sunrise A350-1000s which will contain the extra fuel capacity and increased MTOW.

      DL ordered the A350-1000 2 years ago as part of its 2023 full year earnings call because DL knew that the fuel and MTOW increases will be available on other 35Ks besides for QF.

      and if UA knew that the 35K would be the long range beast it is already and which will only increase, it is more damning of your defense of UA's repeated delays on taking its A350 order - which DL clearly acted on.

      UA has known what the 350 is capable of doing but hasn't cancelled the order because it has said it either has to order the A350 or pay a penalty to Rolls Royce which UA execs have said is not likely to make a difference in whether to take the 350 or not.

      AA and UA started with the 787 family which came out first, both had A350 orders which AA cancelled and UA still has on its books.
      DL started w/ A350s but knows the strength of both the A350 and the 787 and ordered the 787 model which is better economically than the 350 AND WHICH GOT DL the MRO contract for the GEnx which is already the most popular widebody engine and that will only increase.

      It is no surprise that DL wanted a piece of that GEnx overhaul business and its MRO revenues will only go up as it starts doing overhauls on GEnx engines.

      btw, you do realize that DL is already doing overhauls on other airline LEAP engines even though DL is not yet flying the MAX or the LEAP powered A321NEO?

      Why you argue so much about things which other people understand and accept is mind-boggling - but it keeps Ben's comment section active.

    17. rebel Diamond

      Your powers of projection are impressive.

    18. DTWNYC Guest

      @Tim,

      "and yet, you still can't grasp that the number of routes that are 15 hours or longer has nothing to do with the discussion."

      but, this is what you said above,

      "There is a very low marginal benefit to add the A350 just to chase that extra 100 seats on 17+ hour flights that UA can't carry compared to the cost of a new fleet type."

      So you are taking at...

      @Tim,

      "and yet, you still can't grasp that the number of routes that are 15 hours or longer has nothing to do with the discussion."

      but, this is what you said above,

      "There is a very low marginal benefit to add the A350 just to chase that extra 100 seats on 17+ hour flights that UA can't carry compared to the cost of a new fleet type."

      So you are taking at range.

      "The amount of payload those aircraft can carry at those lengths does matter."

      so now we're talking about payload. So here's the problem with you Tim, you move the goal posts. You are not clear what you are arguing, and when you are proven wrong, you regurgitate the same talking points about performance, and seat capacity, etc., and then postulate that DL will win over UA with the A350, which is totally unfounded and unprovable. And for the record, nobody has disputed that the A350 can carry more loads over a longer distance than a 787? But it's also heavier, and the point still remains, who cares? If UA can profitably operate a route with a 787, even with the occasional blocked seats, who's the loser/winner?

      "and the A350-1000 even in DL"s low density rumored configuration will seat 75-100 more passengers than UA's low density 787 configurations.

      UA went with the 787 and they will pay the price in the ability to carry the same payload that DL can carry on either version of the latest 350s on the longest flight."

      And DL might also suffer with having to deeply discount fares to fill those extra 75-100 seats you claim, thus diluting yields. Sometimes being heavier and bigger, doesn't add value. Just ask the 777X and the 748i.

      "The sooner you admit that UA is pulling seats not because there is great Polaris demand but because the 787 just doesn't have the range that UA wants and the A350 has, the sooner we can move on to the next subject."

      No, this is a red herring argument. You assume the blocking the occasional seat is somehow a tragedy. However, not hauling around a bunch of extra capacity with a much heavier airframe isn't? We have no idea what markets DL will put this aircraft. But if DL flies these to ICN, I bet you, UA's 787s with destroy DL CASM and profitability. If they fly them to SIN and HKG, the margins will shrink but at that point, UA has a nearly 20 year lead on DL with deep market penetration, business contracts, frequency, and a local sales force that will be difficult to top, assuming UA maintains operational reliability.

    19. Tim Dunn Diamond

      you are free to argue all you want, and I am sure you will.

      DL didn't buy the A350 for range. It had the 777LR. It retired the LR during covid because they could see that Airbus was adding more and more range to the A350 and the LR was simply not necessary.

      AA and UA went with the 787 which was never designed to be an ULH aircraft; Boeing had the 777LR and even...

      you are free to argue all you want, and I am sure you will.

      DL didn't buy the A350 for range. It had the 777LR. It retired the LR during covid because they could see that Airbus was adding more and more range to the A350 and the LR was simply not necessary.

      AA and UA went with the 787 which was never designed to be an ULH aircraft; Boeing had the 777LR and even the 777-300ER to do that.

      payload and range are related and you know it.

      You can load up any airframe w/ fuel but have such a low payload that it is not economically viable. Airbus and Boeing both proclaim the best range while also talking all their planes can carry and yet, surely, you realize both things are not true at the same time.

      Boeing has been able to stretch the range of the 787 and will do it with the new MTOW versions.
      But the A350 was always designed to be larger and more capable across the product range than the B787.
      That is why Boeing has now launched the 777X but Boeing isn't even saying it will have a plane that will match the A350-1000s range until the 777-8 comes out.

      There is a very small incremental benefit for UA to get a plane comparable in size to the A350-1000 at a range beyond what the 777-300ER can do now or for that extra range the 787-9 can do but with far fewer seats.

      No, UA's 787s will not destroy DL's A350s in CASM. If you actually thought instead of dreaming about DL losing to UA you would see why your argument is so wrong.

      UA might have spent a lot of time building their TPAC network after DL CHOSE TO no longer be the largest but the evidence overwhelmingly shows that DL is more profitable per seat mile than UA over the Pacific -but that is a completely different argument than UA vs. DL's fleet and whether UA will take the A350.

      The A350-1000 will simply be the largest and longest range widebody in the US carrier fleet and DL will have an advantage UNLESS UA chooses to order it - but I believe the benefit from it is not worth it for the relatively small benefit that UA can get compared to the rest of its Boeing widebody fleet.

      As hard as it is for you to admit, DL might have a better TPAC fleet strategy which will give it advantages that UA cannot or will choose not to try to match.

    20. DTWNYC Guest

      @Tim,

      "DL didn't buy the A350 for range"

      "The A350-1000 will simply be the largest and longest range widebody in the US carrier fleet and DL will have an advantage UNLESS UA chooses to order it"

      So which is it. DL didn't buy the plane or range or they did to gain some 'advantage'?

      But thanks for the word salad mansplaining explanation of drivel.

      And, thanks for not responding to any counter argument. As expected.

      Do you honestly think you have credibility?

    21. Tim Dunn Diamond

      thank you for proving that you would rather argue instead of read and THAT is why you don't understand what has happened.

      DL did NOT buy the A350 because it was the highest range aircraft; it didn't need the A350 for range. It wanted a new generation carbon fiber aircraft and the A350 was and still is that.
      DL had the 777LR for range but it was an expensive plane to operate and DL...

      thank you for proving that you would rather argue instead of read and THAT is why you don't understand what has happened.

      DL did NOT buy the A350 because it was the highest range aircraft; it didn't need the A350 for range. It wanted a new generation carbon fiber aircraft and the A350 was and still is that.
      DL had the 777LR for range but it was an expensive plane to operate and DL had a pretty small fleet of them.

      Airbus has steadily improved the performance and range of the A350, first the -900 which DL first ordered and then the -1000 which DL now is waiting to be delivered.

      The A350 was ALWAYS intended to be a larger aircraft than the 787; Airbus has come after Boeing with a new product - the A350 was developed after the 787 - and built a larger and more capable model.

      Even though DL did not buy the A350 for range, Airbus has delivered more and more of it and DL got rid of the LRs and also has taken delivery of the most capable -900s and ordered the -1000s because those two models are larger and more capable than the 777LRs.

      and both A350 models are BOTH larger and longer range than the 787-9 which Boeing did not intend to be their best large, long-range aircraft. They had the 777LR at one time but it did not sell well because of costs while the 787 has sold very well but is not as large at anywhere close to the range the LR had.
      Boeing has come out with the 777X but the -9 uses larger size to reduce costs because the 777X is heavier per seat because it still has a mostly metal fuselage even though it has a carbon fiber wing.
      The 777-9 doesn't have the range of either A350 model. the 777-8 will have the range but is well down the road.

      Yes, it is possible that UA could choose to go with the 777X - which does have some commonality with the 777s UA already has - but unless UA goes with either the 777-8 or the A350-1000, DL will have an advantage in range and capability that UA does not have.

      I am not a betting man but I would be more likely to bet that UA will take 777Xs including 777-8 which might not be available until the early 2030s rather than take the A350.
      and if the cost to get rid of the Airbus obligation from the A350 is to put Rolls Royce engines on some UA 787s, UA will do it if they believe -and Rolls Royce convinces them that the Trent 1000 is now a competent enough engine.

      credibility involves being able to accurately present facts and not your ability or inability to understand them.

    22. DTWNYC Guest

      @Tim,

      You're arguing against yourself. Lots of words, no substance.

      1) You are not presenting facts. You are presenting conjecture and opinion
      2) It's not an inability to understand what you're saying, it's what your saying is unprovable and argumentative.

      Nobody is debating the merits of the A350 over the 787 except you. They both have strengths and weaknesses. But you keep declaring that DL will win the Pacific because they have the...

      @Tim,

      You're arguing against yourself. Lots of words, no substance.

      1) You are not presenting facts. You are presenting conjecture and opinion
      2) It's not an inability to understand what you're saying, it's what your saying is unprovable and argumentative.

      Nobody is debating the merits of the A350 over the 787 except you. They both have strengths and weaknesses. But you keep declaring that DL will win the Pacific because they have the A350. But you have shown zero arguments as to why, except touting the A350s superior range and lifting capability. But you sure spent some time arguing the 77L over the 787/A350, which nobody brought up. You keep failing to ignore many other factors not related the actual airframe.

      It's like saying PR is superior to UA to MNL because PR flies A350s and UA flies 77W? Sounds ridiculous doesn't it?

    23. Tim Dunn Diamond

      DL will have an advantage over UA because of the A350; you can argue all you want that will not be true but it is already true by the fact that DL already generates higher profits per ASM than UA.

      You can say that is because of the airplane or you can just admit that DL does a better job of generating revenue and controlling costs.

      Your choice as to the reason you want to...

      DL will have an advantage over UA because of the A350; you can argue all you want that will not be true but it is already true by the fact that DL already generates higher profits per ASM than UA.

      You can say that is because of the airplane or you can just admit that DL does a better job of generating revenue and controlling costs.

      Your choice as to the reason you want to use - but arguing that DL doesn't have a profit advantage is simply factually not possible.

      and I have no idea what UA or PR makes on its MNL flights which is why I wouldn't make that statement.

      We do know what DL and UA make across the Pacific which is why it is very possible to accurately note the TPAC comparisons between DL and UA.

      It is not my job to make you believe the truth.
      You are simply the person that argues with me so I can present the truth to those that are interested in the truth.

    24. DTWNYC Guest

      "DL will have an advantage over UA because of the A350"

      For the umpteenth time, why?

      "you can argue all you want that will not be true but it is already true by the fact that DL already generates higher profits per ASM than UA."

      Maybe that's because UA has nearly double the average stage length of DL given they fly much longer segments. As you increase average stage length to ULH, typically RASM drops....

      "DL will have an advantage over UA because of the A350"

      For the umpteenth time, why?

      "you can argue all you want that will not be true but it is already true by the fact that DL already generates higher profits per ASM than UA."

      Maybe that's because UA has nearly double the average stage length of DL given they fly much longer segments. As you increase average stage length to ULH, typically RASM drops. Therefore, if DL starts flying ULH which might increase their average stage length, that would also be mean a compression of yield given ULH don't always command higher yield per ASM, coupled with higher operating costs given these are expensive planes to operate (especially a heavy A350). But given United's significantly larger Premium cabins and better hub structure to capture J traffic compared to DL, that might offset some of the RASM decline to DL's disadvantage

    25. Tim Dunn Diamond

      first, I strongly commend your civil but still passionate defense of your position. I can debate and discuss anything w/ anyone as long as they are civil - and we don't need to come to agreement to treat each other well. I commend you.

      DL ALREADY has a CASM advantage over UA across the Pacific - you can do the math from published DOT data. DL's CASM advantage RIGHT NOW is because DL flies a...

      first, I strongly commend your civil but still passionate defense of your position. I can debate and discuss anything w/ anyone as long as they are civil - and we don't need to come to agreement to treat each other well. I commend you.

      DL ALREADY has a CASM advantage over UA across the Pacific - you can do the math from published DOT data. DL's CASM advantage RIGHT NOW is because DL flies a higher percentage of new generation aircraft than UA across the Pacific; in fact, DL's TPAC fleet is almost entirely 359s. Newer aircraft burn less fuel and have less maintenance.

      UA simply does not have a stage length twice of DL's across the Pacific. DL flies far more of its TPAC capacity from the Eastern US than the west coast. UA does not fly that much more deeper into SE Asia that offsets DL's greater presence from Eastern Europe to E. Asia.

      your discussion about RASM is fine but you fail to note that CASM DOES NOT drop as fast as RASM on long to ULH flights. That is the reason why widebodies were invented in the first place. Larger airplanes have lower CASM than smaller aircraft and the CASM advantage is more necessary the longer the flight goes.

      And as much as you want to argue otherwise, UA is taking seats off of the 787-9 for its newest most premium configuration in order to fill the planes that are on the plane, something it cannot consistently do on its longest routes with the 265 seat versions.

      DL's A359s w/ 275 seats and UA's 789s w/ 265 seats have very similar CASM. The 359 is heavier and burns more fuel but 10 more passengers and more cargo capacity is enough to pay that extra cost.
      the 35K will seat somewhere around 315 passengers (DL hasn't confirmed the configuration) which will be about 90 more passengers than UA's 225 seat 789s.
      the CASM simply will be much higher for UA's 789s... pilot costs and fuel burn don't go down as you take seats off of the 265 seat configuration. And UA does not make up for it with higher RASM. Average fare data shows that DL gets slightly higher average fares on a stage length adjusted basis over the Pacific than UA at slightly lower costs.

      That will skew even more in DL's favor as the 35Ks are added - DL's largest plane over the Pacific since the 744s - and as UA adds more 225 seat 789s.

      the facts, not general guesses, do not support your position.

      Larger airplanes become more valuable the longer a route becomes.

      But answer simply the number of carriers that use airplanes with 225 or fewer seats on routes longer than 16 hours - other than on airlines that already have lower seats/aircraft such as the Japanese carriers.
      There is a good reason why airlines use larger aircraft on the longest flights and that is to get the CASM down faster than the decrease in RASM.

      thanks for the civil conversation but the bottom line is that UA will not be competitive flying 225 seat 787s on routes that other airlines including DL are using 300 plus seat aircraft - which the 787 cannot do

    26. 1990 Guest

      Tim, I admire your passion and focus here. Don’t mind Siri. The exercise is paying off!

    27. rebel Diamond

      That's a lot of words that are working under the false premises that demand for the two airlines' product will be the same in the Pacific and that the demand is similar for premium and standard offerings. Neither are true.

    28. Tim Dunn Diamond

      you are right.

      for the 3rd quarter, DL added more capacity and got better revenue metrics across the Pacific than UA.

      As DL grows into markets such as SIN and MNL and adds more ICN flights through the largest TPAC partnership, DL's revenue metrics will continue to outperform UA's.
      The best part is that DL's much more efficient A350s will be more cost effective than UA's current and planned TPAC fleet

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rebel Diamond

Ostrower is merely quoting the UA spokesperson. The rest of your post is more of your tired tirade. Your MRO nonsense proves you simply aren't credible.

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Harold Guest

lmao i was literally typing "I cant wait for Tim to tell us how the A350 is amazing when DL has it but shitty when UA gets it" but i deleted because I thought nah he won't go that far. you are truly beyond parody officially

6
rebel Diamond

This is a non-story. UA always had the flexibility within their 150 787 orders to switch between variants for deliveries outside of 18 months or so. And I doubt UA ordered 150 aircraft without ordering engines. They likely have an option to switch given certain parameters, but why would they not stick with GENx engines unless RR offers some unbelievable deal that also resolves the A359 engine dispute. The real story here is how UA and Kirby nailed it making massive orders for 150 787s and over 500 narrow body aircraft during Covid at advantageous terms that puts them in the front of a huge order backlog (5 years). Advantage United.

5
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