We’ve seen many trends in the airline industry coming out of the pandemic, from the increased demand for premium products, to the seemingly insatiable demand for Americans to travel to Europe every summer (or even multiple times!).
A few months ago I posed the question of the whether the level of transatlantic summer demand is permanent or a fad, and there’s some interesting data, on that front…
In this post:
Summer travel demand between the US & Europe is softening
Cirium, the airline analytics company, has just released some data about how airline bookings between the United States and Europe have softened for the summer of 2026 compared to the summer of 2025. Specifically, this data compares:
- July 2026 bookings made between October 7, 2025, and January 31, 2026
- July 2025 bookings made between October 7, 2024, and January 31, 2025
What’s noteworthy is that demand seems to be meaningfully softening in both directions of travel. From the United States to Europe, demand has decreased 7.27%, while from Europe to the United States, demand has decreased 14.22%. It’s fascinating to see how the numbers compare by market.
From the United States to Europe:
- Amsterdam demand is down 7%
- Athens demand is down 13%
- Barcelona demand is up 5%
- Dublin demand is down 13%
- Frankfurt demand is down 29%
- London demand is down 3%
- Madrid demand is down 5%
- Milan demand is down 13%
- Munich demand is down 13%
- Paris demand is down 7%
- Rome demand is down 2%
From Europe to the United States:
- Amsterdam demand is down 23%
- Athens demand is down 19%
- Barcelona demand is down 26%
- Dublin demand is down 15%
- Frankfurt demand is down 36%
- London demand is up 1%
- Madrid demand is down 16%
- Milan demand is down 8%
- Munich demand is down 19%
- Paris demand is down 21%
- Rome demand is down 5%
Cirium adds the following caveats:
This data comes from various third-party sources, primarily Online Travel Agencies and the GDS (Global Distribution System) that airlines and travel agents use. It does not provide booking data information from the airlines directly, and some airlines do not sell through GDS/Online Travel Agencies. Only the airlines know with any certainty what their bookings look like. Accordingly, this data is purely directional — an indicator — rather than hard bookings data. Cirium will not provide airline-specific bookings data. So, it’s a sample of a sample. The sample size is statistically significant.
What could explain this decrease in transatlantic demand?
Since the start of the pandemic, we’ve seen year-after-year increases in summer demand across the Atlantic, and at some point it really felt like there was no limit to how much demand there was for traveling across the Atlantic in summer.
So what’s going on here? Have we finally reached the point where demand has peaked, and it’s now starting to decrease? Or is there another possible explanation?
While demand is down most for those originating in Europe, I don’t think that’s too surprising, given politics. I think what’s most surprising is the extent to which demand originating in the United States is down. So what could explain that? As I view it, there are six possible explanations (or more than likely, it’s a combination of factors):
- Traveling to Europe has become even more expensive with the strength of the EUR vs. USD, and that doesn’t even factor in how much more expensive hotels have become
- Affordability continues to be a big issue for Americans, so maybe we’re getting to the point where many people just can’t afford to plan these kinds of trips anymore
- Perhaps this ties in to the affordability issue, but this softening of demand is based on bookings five months out, so are people just not booking as far in advance?
- Summer travel demand is moving earlier in the season, and the peak of summer is increasingly shifting to June, so that could play a factor; however, July has continued to remain strong, and it’s mainly August that has suffered
- The World Cup will be taking place in the United States in June and July 2026, so are some people choosing not to travel, so they can be here for that?
- For those who really only started traveling to Europe after the start of the pandemic (which largely contributed to this trend), do they just feel like they’re now at the point where they’ve “been there, done that,” and don’t need to go anymore?
For now we’ll mark this as “developing.” Cirium plans to share more updates in the coming months, so I’m curious to see how this evolves.
I suspect there are a combination of factors at play here. My guess is that demand will pick up a bit as the actual travel date approaches, though I do think we may have now reached the point where demand between the continents in summer has peaked.
Bottom line
Data from Cirium suggests that summer transatlantic bookings are down rather meaningfully year-over-year. The biggest drop is from Europe to the United States, though the decrease from the United States to Europe is substantial as well.
It’s hard to draw too many conclusions as of now, since we’re talking about bookings five months out. That being said, I think this shouldn’t be ignored, and is something to keep an eye on. Has transatlantic summer demand finally peaked? Is this kind of travel just becoming more unaffordable for more people? Or does it just reflect shifting trends, of the summer travel season across the Atlantic being longer than in the past?
What do you make of this data about transatlantic summer demand softening?
Flew ZRH to MIA last Thursday. Business was 60% load and Economy was less than 40%. I have been flying this route for 20 years in January around the same time and never seen the plane so empty. Immigration at MIA was a ghost town. Non US citizens cleared before I went thru Global Entry LOL
Based just on the US-Europe routes that I watch prices for, this is real. Prices have pretty consistently dropped to pre-COVID levels during the last 4 or 5 months.
As others have said, you're overlooking the Trump administration's tole in this. The administration has weakened the US and global economies, damaged relations and goodwill between the US and Europe, and unleashed a violent secret police force who care little for the law, standard operating procedures, or public safety.
While the US has been very antagonistic of a number of its allies, Trump has made it clear that the US is not going to be paying for Europe's defense; even the EU leadership has agreed that they should be paying for their own defense as well as deal w/ major issues like the Arctic that matter to the EU and US.
Being a bull in a china shop doesn't mean he hasn't made...
While the US has been very antagonistic of a number of its allies, Trump has made it clear that the US is not going to be paying for Europe's defense; even the EU leadership has agreed that they should be paying for their own defense as well as deal w/ major issues like the Arctic that matter to the EU and US.
Being a bull in a china shop doesn't mean he hasn't made some good points and has succeeded in shifting mindsets that have been accepted for generations.
When you or anyone is so consumed with TDS, you are incapable of looking at the pros and cons - leaving real analysis to others.
And yet the actions of the man in Pennsylvania Avenue is forcing long term friends and allies to pursue uncomfortable relations with China and other countries in order to preserve some kind of financial fall back for the long term, in the short we have to say nice things and flatter but mark my words friends won’t forget or be caught out again when a country bullies it closest neighbours and allies.
It’s not “TDS” for Europeans to be worried about being denied entry - or even detained - at the border, for them to be concerned about being caught up in a violent ICE incident or for them to think twice about going to the US because the President of that nation threatened to invade a European territory.
Of course Trump can advocate for more Europe defence spending. But many Europeans are genuinely concerned if...
It’s not “TDS” for Europeans to be worried about being denied entry - or even detained - at the border, for them to be concerned about being caught up in a violent ICE incident or for them to think twice about going to the US because the President of that nation threatened to invade a European territory.
Of course Trump can advocate for more Europe defence spending. But many Europeans are genuinely concerned if the US would now help in a crisis. Or even be the instigator of a crisis.
People have limited funds and time to go on holiday. Maybe the news out of the US is just enough to make them opt for another destination. Again, not “TDS”.
Maybe, but not at the top/luxury end. Summer bookings for Europe are already pouring in and availability at the top hotels is already becoming thin.
Surprise. People dont want to go to the US after watching the News. ICE, Trump, ect.. are not really making it welcoming.
Like most Cirium data other than schedules data, this is a sample which even they admit has limited accuracy or validity.
Not to say that demand isn't soft (in fact, talking to some airlines the demand on some routes is even softer than indicated by Cirium), but I wouldn't draw any conclusions from data sets they supply publicly - whether that is OTP, demand or any other metric they come up with.
These changes need to be normalized against currency movement because currency movements ALWAYS impact international leisure travel. The USD and Euro were essentially at parity 3 years ago but the historic relationship between the USD and Euro is returning.
The same reason why so many Americans have been able to vacation in Europe is also the reason why Japan went over the could of a couple of years from being a source of US...
These changes need to be normalized against currency movement because currency movements ALWAYS impact international leisure travel. The USD and Euro were essentially at parity 3 years ago but the historic relationship between the USD and Euro is returning.
The same reason why so many Americans have been able to vacation in Europe is also the reason why Japan went over the could of a couple of years from being a source of US inbound tourism to a financially attractive destination for American tourists
Currency is not just about travel. It also includes manufacturing and the cost/benefit to import and export. It also involves the attractiveness of national debt.
and there is a "we've already done that" factor that will result in a reduction of American tourism to Europe. The stock market has been very strong and many Americans are spending and will spend enormous amounts of their wealth including retirement savings for travel; other places will become more "in vogue"
DL led the industry after last summer saying it will keep US-Europe capacity flat but spread it out over a longer period of time. Southern Europe is overrun and hot in the summer and some will continue to go but it is pleasant in spring and fall.
and let's also not forget that airfares to Europe rose because of the near complete collapse of widebody low cost carriers. lower cost carriers that use narrowbodies have replaced some of that capacity but are much more hub and spoke in their strategies.
Travel demand evolves and has for years; well-run companies will figure out how to adapt and succeed. Consumers will always do what is in their best interest and companies will offer products and services if it makes economic sense to do so
"consumers will always do what is in their best interest" lol you and me both know that is nowhere near true. Delta wouldnt have succeeded as much as they have if they hadnt been able to get droves of people to abandon reason to pay a cost premium for the fake promise of "loyalty" and "status"
You arrogantly look down at others and can't admit that people are capable of making their own decisions and do so with different priorities than you.
DL's premium comes from not flooding the market with capacity - as UA has done - but also in managing capacity to not offer as many flights in off-peak periods. add in DL's joint venture network with hubs in 3 of Europe's 4 largest airports and DL's strength...
You arrogantly look down at others and can't admit that people are capable of making their own decisions and do so with different priorities than you.
DL's premium comes from not flooding the market with capacity - as UA has done - but also in managing capacity to not offer as many flights in off-peak periods. add in DL's joint venture network with hubs in 3 of Europe's 4 largest airports and DL's strength in southern Europe which goes all the way back to the Pan Am asset acquisition and DL has outperformed nearly every other airline across the Atlantic for decades.
you can kick and scream all you want but actual facts highlight how wrong you are.
Thanks for sharing the preliminary data.
A couple of days ago I bought a summertime Europe - West Coast Y round trip for $600. Basic. I don’t recall seeing something that cheap for summer in a long long time.
I also read European newspapers, ie not fox propaganda. It’s pretty clear to me too why they’re not visiting the US more. They see our federal government for what it is.
You are ignorering the obvious: Trump and the creeping US fascism.
We europeans have read the history books - you guys should try and do the same. Hope to be back in the US once you have had your Nuremberg-trials.
My two cents: Just like Tulum was a major fad that has largely died off, so is Europe. Given every european city is the same (ok I know not really but play along - river down the middle, some iconic bridge over said river, some newer bridge over said river all the locals detest, some cathedral, some hipster streets perfect for selfies, some park to buy cocaine) - once you have a few cities in...
My two cents: Just like Tulum was a major fad that has largely died off, so is Europe. Given every european city is the same (ok I know not really but play along - river down the middle, some iconic bridge over said river, some newer bridge over said river all the locals detest, some cathedral, some hipster streets perfect for selfies, some park to buy cocaine) - once you have a few cities in your Instagram feed adding more doesn't really help you much.
Maybe people have gone into so much debt on past Europe trips that it isn't sustainable anymore too - but I think it is just more these short-lived fads that have overtaken social media left and right.
Definitely a sense the US is not somewhere to visit at the moment that being said Virgin Atlantic have announced more seats to Orlando this summer from Manchester. Still busy in the premium cabins from what I’ve witnessed but the back of the bus is usually sparse.
Aer Lingus is also stopping long-haul flights from Manchester, one of which is a MAN-MCO daily service on an A330. Virgin is likely adding capacity because of that.
Indeed and BA announced a seasonal LHR-MCO over the summer in addition to its LGW flights.
I think politics and hotel rates are the big factor. And for visitors coming to USA - high crime in big cities. Hotel rates seemed to have doubled in a year. What used to be $200 to $300 a night is now $400 to $600 a night. I am now paying $400 per night for Courtyard's in the USA (original style building). Full service Marriott's are now $500+ at international destinations.
"GREAT" news for "Pork Chop" Dinky Timothea "Dirty Deuce" Dunce! Less passengers flying will give Delta time to try and catch up on wifi installations across the fleet! United and American have beat them totally! Sad!
Possibly. I think from the US much of this is economic driven. The number of Americans heavily in debt and never ending job layoffs.
@George Romney I thought your guy had brought us to levels of economic prosperity never seen before. He's telling us the economy is fine, so it must be so. His tariffs were perfect. His raising of insurance premium on low-income Americans was perfect. His trade wars have made us more prosperous. Canada and Greenland love us and want to be part of the US. Reducing credit card interests rates to 10% for one year will fix everything.
So...?
@Parker You do realize the lying about the economy goes back at least to Bush, if not before. If you get your news from cable or network, which you seem to do, you're getting propaganda and lies. Actually, getting rid of high interest debt would help consumers and it might force lenders to make better lending decisions. Giving a 25 year old a credit card with a $5K line of credit?
Another banger from Goalpost Movin' George
I have another explanation that seems to be missing, and arguibly the most realistic reason for EU-US demand significaly down:
The European boycott of the US and US products. It started last year and intensified in the last few monts.
Simple and straightforward.
As a European , who’s traveled to the US the last few years in a row for holidays to visit friends , I’m not going this year because of Trump and everything going on over there.
Europeans don’t want to come to the US (even for World Cup). Americans don’t feel welcome in Europe. One common cause.
The common cause is a Democrat in the White House. Trump was registered as a Democrat and donated to Democrats, even Hillary Clinton. He is a spy and a plant for the Democrats except he doesn't want more estate tax for selfish reasons. His goal is to destroy the Republican Party.
"His goal is to destroy the Republican Party."
He's a generation late for that. Newt Gingrich made swift work of selling out the Conservative Movement while he was SotH.
What about more people are booking DIRECT with airlines and LESS with Travel agencies?
Are you stupid or just trying to be funny? Hopefully the latter. Booking direct vs. with a travel agent makes no difference for Cirium data.
You are ignoring the Trump factor.
IDK on that. Vast majority of people don't care about politics and even fewer care about Trump to the point of altering their plans.
In March 2025 it was published that 70% of Swedes and 50% of Danish were refraining from buying American products as a form of political protest (polls made by national broadcasters). Fast forward to 2026 and amplify it across Europe.
Really?
You say that, but to be clear myself and plenty of my peers who have and would often travel over the Atlantic won't be going given your political situation and down right bat shit crazy foreign policy.
It might not be a huge impact, but it does exist, so dont fool yourself.
So is America great again?
12% decline in value of dollar
Yup.
And that make the numbers worse. While it's more expensive for US travellers to go abroad (good reason for the decrease in outbound traffic), it's cheaper for inbound travellers to visit the US - yet they are still staying away. Guess that's part of making America great again. LOL(?). Maybe America's exports will see a boost in demand. Oops, never mind, America doesn't produce anything, China does.
Yes but even with a significantly weaker dollar Europe is much better value compared to the US. I just stayed at a 5-star property in Europe for less than $300 USD. In the US, I often pay more than this for a tired Holiday Inn Express on the side of the highway in the middle of nowhere. A nice hotel in the US is usually $1,000 upwards. I don’t care about 12% weakening of the dollar from that perspective…