To be honest, this is probably the least of our problems at this point, but we finally have some concrete data as to the decrease we’re seeing in foreign visitors to the United States. I have to imagine this is only the tip of the iceberg.
In this post:
US sees roughly 20% drop in foreign visitors in late March
We’ve obviously heard a lot of stories about decreased foreign travel demand to the United States, for a variety of reasons. However, that information has largely been anecdotal, or has been based on forecasts rather than actual travel data, since there’s a gap between when people book tickets and when they actually travel.
Along those lines, US Customs and Border Protection publishes the number of passengers traveling through US immigration checkpoints. Axios did an excellent analysis on how those trends have evolved for the 10 busiest airports in the United States.
March 2025 is where we’ve really started to see a change in arriving passenger numbers. According to this research, which compares year-over-year numbers:
- In late March 2025, the US saw a decrease of over 20% in terms of foreigners passing through US immigration checkpoints at the busiest airports; by March 28, that number got slightly better, with a decrease of “only” 18.4%
- Conversely, we saw a significant increase in Americans traveling abroad, with late March seeing an increase of nearly 14%
It goes without saying that this is a massive change, especially when you compare the increase in Americans traveling abroad with the decrease in foreigners traveling to the United States (which, all of that is terrible for the US tourism industry in general, as foreigners don’t spend their money here, and Americans spend their money abroad).
It’s also worth acknowledging that Easter is in late April this year, while it was in early April last year, and to some extent, that could impact demand. However, the direction of demand seems to me like it’s indicative of a larger shift. We haven’t seen this significant of a negative year-over-year change in demand since the start of the pandemic.
Furthermore, I’d expect the gap to continue to grow, simply because many people book their tickets months in advance. After all, there are a lot of people who may not feel great about traveling to the United States, but they already had non-refundable travel booked, so they completed their trip. We’ll mark this as “developing” for now, and will revisit in the coming weeks.
Interestingly, executives at major global carriers have largely reported that they haven’t seen a huge drop in long haul bookings. I imagine that largely reflects that Americans have filled the gap left by foreigners. However, I suspect that’s about to change as well…
Just how much trouble are US airlines in?
Okay, admittedly that question applies to the entire economy right now, and it’s anyone’s guess how the coming days and weeks play out. Obviously all the markets are taking a beating right now, but airlines are among the hardest hit.
It’s pretty remarkable to see United’s stock be worth half as much as its all-time high, right around when Trump took office, a bit over two months ago. It’s not like most other airlines are doing much better, though…
Anyway, the pressure that airlines are currently facing are immense. We’re now seeing evidence of a strong decrease in demand for travel to the United States among foreigners. However, if things continue the way they are, the next challenge will be a decrease in demand among Americans.
To avoid getting too political, I’m not attempting to debate the long term merits of the concept of tariffs, and/or of building a more independent economy. However, as Trump himself acknowledges, there’s going to be some short term suffering. That’s what I’m focusing on, because as we’ve learned over the years, airlines can’t last very long during downturns without some sort of bailouts.
When it comes to economic suffering, airlines are typically first in line:
- The stock market getting absolutely battered isn’t good for the premium leisure demand that airlines rely on, which largely consists of people who may pull back their spending, having less money to play with
- Prices going up in the short term due to tariffs will put more financial pressure on average families, and increase costs, leaving less money for discretionary travel
- With less of a focus on global trade, we’re going to see a reduction in international business travel
It seems like airlines are going to get hit from all sides here. While we’ll see how this evolves in the near future, for airlines, it sure feels like the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, just over five years ago. For the sake of everyone, I hope this normalizes soon, because with the direction things are headed, it’s not going to be pretty…
Bottom line
We now have data that shows a sharp decrease in foreign visitors to the United States in recent weeks. That hasn’t necessarily been that huge of a deal for airlines, since we’ve seen an increase in Americans traveling abroad (it’s a different story for the US tourism industry at large).
However, when you combine that with stocks taking a massive beating and tariffs shortly raising the costs of everyday goods, that’s unarguably going to have an impact on travel demand among Americans, and that’s very bad news for airlines.
I hope something significant changes in the coming days or weeks, or else airlines are about to face a whole new round of challenges…
What do you make of the demand patterns we’re seeing, and what it means for airlines?
I feel like this post should be deleted on OMAT. Clearly people cant leave political comments out of the comment section. Sad really.
My favorite observation is how MAGA rails against identity politics when their entire movement, with its red caps, cult-like rallies, and fanatical devotion to the Dear Leader is just as much an expression of identity politics as anything that's come from the FrootLoop social-justice Left. Y'all need to read Eric Hoffer's "The True Believer". It's the same old pattern, over and over and over again.
America isolating itself from the rest of the world like a despotic dictatorship is glorious.
Keep up with your self destruction America. After the pain you have inflicted on the world, such as in sycophantically supporting corrupt genocidal countries such as Israel, you get what you vote for.
Wishing you nothing but misery as the world gets on without your toxicity and fascism. Have fun with Orange Putin and Elonia.
Wow BZ. What a toxic comment. America is wrong, and so are you. You're coming across just as cruel as Trump.
I'm American and I agree with him. There's a significant number of people in this country that aren't going to learn until they touch the hot stove, and it's piping hot now. Elections have consequences and I'm excited for all of them to experience that.
I am an American and while I despair at the bigotry, hate and stupidity of my fellow Americans, I do not want to see my country destroyed.
@Evil for Evil
He's not wrong. America is a pariah and an evil empire. Hatred and anger deserved. The rest of the world will move on and form new alliances as the U.S. becomes a failed nation.
I don't agree with wishing harm on the United States, but it's difficult to see America's burgeoning isolationism as anything other than self harm. The world has changed dramatically since the 1940s, yet Trump and his inner circle seem completely oblivious.
Does this mean I can finally use my eVouchers to upgrade to F on LH
Imagine a Native American departing from a reservation. In waiting, just off the reservation, are ICE agents. They arrest the individual, demand proof of citizenship, and threaten deportation to . . . India. Hours later, a family member brings proof and the person is released. ICE knew she was Native American. Make American Generally Aryan
Ok
America's tourism nosedive isn't just about empty hotel rooms - it's the canary in our diplomatic coal mine. With foreigners avoiding us by the millions and neighbors like Canada giving us the cold shoulder (visits down 24% at the border), we're watching real-time erosion of the soft power that once made us magnetic. Sure, some folks here are saying "good riddance," but they're missing how this 20% drop hits everything from small-town diners to our...
America's tourism nosedive isn't just about empty hotel rooms - it's the canary in our diplomatic coal mine. With foreigners avoiding us by the millions and neighbors like Canada giving us the cold shoulder (visits down 24% at the border), we're watching real-time erosion of the soft power that once made us magnetic. Sure, some folks here are saying "good riddance," but they're missing how this 20% drop hits everything from small-town diners to our standing on the world stage. When people stop wanting to visit you, they've usually stopped listening to you too - and that's a problem no tariff can fix.
I'm surprised it's not a 50% drop. I can't imagine being a foreign resident wanting to visit the US right now.
My husband is a white, Republican-voting US citizen and even he doesn't want to go back there right now. In fact he's trying to convince his brother and SiL to emigrate and take their assets with them.
@pete.
Right, after people like your husband voted to put these totally incompetent twats in power. Voted a convicted felon, a senile, functionally illiterate buffoon into power.
People like your husband.... sighhh. SMDH... I just can't with you people...
Unless you're a member of the electoral college your vote for president is entirely irrelevant. Besides which, a lot of Americans would have voted for Satan himself rather than Kamala Harris. It was like America was given the choice between either Lloyd or Harry from "Dumb and Dumber".
@Pete that's Lloyd and Harry?
I thought it was AOC and MTG.
I feel like some Americans don't realise the genuine fear involved. People are being deported to prisons in countries they are not from without trials. People are being accused of being terrorists for taking part in lawful protests. Even people with green cards and other lawful residence permits are being held and/or deported because they have views that don't match the current administration.
Is it likely that it will happen to any specific individual?...
I feel like some Americans don't realise the genuine fear involved. People are being deported to prisons in countries they are not from without trials. People are being accused of being terrorists for taking part in lawful protests. Even people with green cards and other lawful residence permits are being held and/or deported because they have views that don't match the current administration.
Is it likely that it will happen to any specific individual? No. But it is the total arbitrary nature and lack of legal protections that frightens people. Hundreds of thousands of people visit North Korea in a year with no incident. However, many people are afraid to visit because you don't want to risk becoming the arbitrary victim. Same with other countries that some people are afraid to visit like Iran, Russia or even China. Millions of people visit without incident, but some people are still put off because they know that they have limited legal protections in these countries. As the current administration does not view itself to be bound by legal restraints when it comes to foreigners, it is hardly surprising that foreigners are uncomfortable taking the chance to visit.
Naturalized citizens, who express the wrong opinion, are being arrested under the unsupported premise of incorrect information on their naturalization paperwork 30+ years after the fact. Make America Generally Aryan.
Two days ago the Australian media reported on a man who was refused entry at JFK on his way to join a cruise in Florida. He'd qualified for an ESTA and it had been granted, yet the officer at JFK thought it was unusual that he'd flown via Hong Kong with Cathay Pacific (the premium economy fare was on sale), and denied him entry on that basis. Yes, that was the official reason - they didn't like the way he got there.
Trump is a plague, everything he touches turns to trump
Amen to that!
How can you compare Covid to this? When Covid started how to contain the spread and all that a lot was unknown and how to get it under control. We all know the reason behind this and how it could be stopped but hey that’s what people voted in. The only good thing is he’s past the life expectancy for a man and can’t be voted in again due to rules and his age of course
Also past the life expectancy of a man who eats McDonalds every day
Put up a chart of American Airlines stock. It's about 5 bucks from being a penny stock.
People panic and forget to take their Xanax and their gummies. Could airlines absolutely crash and burn? Certainly. But times have been pretty good for them these past few years and I'm sure they can weather the storm.
We certainly haven't seen fares come down. So if demand is down, when will fares follow? Most domestic...
Put up a chart of American Airlines stock. It's about 5 bucks from being a penny stock.
People panic and forget to take their Xanax and their gummies. Could airlines absolutely crash and burn? Certainly. But times have been pretty good for them these past few years and I'm sure they can weather the storm.
We certainly haven't seen fares come down. So if demand is down, when will fares follow? Most domestic flights I've been on in the past 90 days have been full. When is that going to change? Travel isn't just leisure, it sometimes necessary ;)
"Could airlines absolutely crash and burn?"
Sounds like a bad pun.
U.K. to USA from what I’am hearing will remain strong for the summer and the U.K. is being seen as a more “friendly” destination in Europe at the moment for inbound US visitors. What a sad state of affairs.
The US has a trade *surplus* with the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, and Spain, just to name a few. Yet tariffs have been imposed. Sad indeed.
Good. America is full.
Full of what?
stupid voters
Do we not want tourist dollars? What a ridiculous statement.
Full of Sh*t
Good. Hoping Florida and other red states get hit the hardest.
Florida ironically is one of the states that will get hit the hardest. Europeans love Florida.
So called "liberal states" like NY, CA, WA, IL, etc. have strong business ties and will continue to have sustained demand that is far less elastic than the leisure demand of Florida.
Us Floridians could care less if the trash Europeans stop coming. Canadians too, they might be the worst.
Oh Art Vandy, are you this charitable about everyone? What makes Europeans "trash," Art? Is it that:
1. European mothers die in childbirth at one-third the rate of American mothers (8 vs. 23.8 deaths per 100,000 live births).
2. European countries imprison 5-10 times fewer people than America does (EU average: ~80 per 100,000 vs. US: 505 per 100,000).
3. European mothers receive guaranteed paid maternity leave (14-52 weeks), while nearly 1 in...
Oh Art Vandy, are you this charitable about everyone? What makes Europeans "trash," Art? Is it that:
1. European mothers die in childbirth at one-third the rate of American mothers (8 vs. 23.8 deaths per 100,000 live births).
2. European countries imprison 5-10 times fewer people than America does (EU average: ~80 per 100,000 vs. US: 505 per 100,000).
3. European mothers receive guaranteed paid maternity leave (14-52 weeks), while nearly 1 in 4 American mothers must return to work within two weeks of giving birth.
4. European students graduate with minimal debt from their affordable or free universities, while American graduates carry an average burden of $37,000 in student loans.
5. Europeans face dramatically lower gun death rates (0.2-3 per 100,000), while Americans die from firearms at a rate of 12.21 per 100,000 (totaling over 40,000 deaths annually).
As Americans, we should seek to be the best, not just proclaim we are in spite of the data. Greatness lies in outcomes, not braggadocio and denial.
There's nothing great about your comment, or in embracing a smug, self-defeating, nihilistic, jingoistic and willfully ignorant point of view like MAGA.
Art Vandy sounds like a Cuban. He better hide...
not nice Ryan-- the dnc the party of anger and hatred///
Not about hatred or anger at all, just wanting folks to get what they voted for. They wanted this now they get it. Win-win.
Look at the graph. The decrease in foreign visitors is matched by an increase in American travelers. So maybe the Americans are grabbing the award seats. If so, AMERICA FIRST! (Disclaimer: America First is not MAGA)
Trump is not too good in handling the press. In contrast, Biden knew how to make them love him, even hiding his dementia for as long as possible. (Trump is starting to have a tad of dementia but not severe)
You're kidding right? Every week in 2024 we got articles from WSJ and other ostensibly "liberal" outlets dissecting every stutter or mispoken word Biden said for signs of dementia, but they all gave Trump a free pass on his maniacal ramblings. In fact, they did him a favor and sanewashed it all to make it sound like he had real policy platforms, instead of just showing him for the senile crank he is.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/six-key-people-hid-signs-224657612.html
Wikipedia also banned people if they mentioned about Biden's dementia.
Tariffs will also hurt cargo demand.
So it's not like airlines can make up for lower load factors by focusing more on cargo either.
It's called government scaring the sheep, just like COVID. This could be COVID II.
If you want to come to the US as a tourist to visit the sites, have a nice American meal etc. no CBP officer is going to throw you in a gulag as you're standing in line at JFK customs. Now if you have a dodgy past and/or plan to do things like participate in a protest then yes you should...
It's called government scaring the sheep, just like COVID. This could be COVID II.
If you want to come to the US as a tourist to visit the sites, have a nice American meal etc. no CBP officer is going to throw you in a gulag as you're standing in line at JFK customs. Now if you have a dodgy past and/or plan to do things like participate in a protest then yes you should expect some troubles. I've traveled the world as a tourist with never an intention in getting involved in local affairs. As a result I've always been graciously let in, or at least a non interested grunt from a customs officer.
That hasn't changed. It's just too many people get addicted to fear factor.
Assuming you are a white man who portrays well. Of course everything is wonderful for you. But if not a white male you would likely think differently. Very differently.
Tip of the iceberg. Americans aren't generally great at understanding foreigners' views of their great country so let me help: the world is freaked out. Scary stories of humourless border agents, deportations, and the sense that the meanness from the White House is a feature, not a bug, will depress this "20%" figure further.
Here's what's missing from this story: sales year-over-year, measured by total number of US-bound PNRs, or total sales in dollars, compared...
Tip of the iceberg. Americans aren't generally great at understanding foreigners' views of their great country so let me help: the world is freaked out. Scary stories of humourless border agents, deportations, and the sense that the meanness from the White House is a feature, not a bug, will depress this "20%" figure further.
Here's what's missing from this story: sales year-over-year, measured by total number of US-bound PNRs, or total sales in dollars, compared to other times. I want to know about new purchses of tickets to visit USA, in 2025 Q1, compared to lots of other time periods. I believe those stats are more useful, and expect they would be more dramatic then these government figures about entry by people who booked months ago.
Trump was elected months ago.
Yes, @Eskimo, time flies when increased activity and out-of-the-ordinary or new ideas that challenge the domestic and global status quo abound and require intellectual, economic, political and personal/emotional accomodation and reflection, rather than proceeding on autopilot and knee-jerk assumptions of guaranteed homeostasis for the rest of our lives.
Waiting for Gary Leff’s rebuttal…nothing to see here!!!
He's a RWNJ in Libertarian clothes.
These numbers are absolutely believable and they will get worse. There will be chapter 11 filings before the end of the year.
You really hate UA don't you.
I feel like just a week or two ago you were defending Trump and saying this would never happen. Now you’re predicting Chapter 11.
I was countering 70% reduction and demand which was what was claimed.
These numbers are believable
in American simply will not have the wealth to travel. A lot of people will stick to their summer plans, but after that, it is hard to know what will happen.
And no, I have nothing against united other than that they bet the farm on massive international expansion, which has never been sustained for any US carrier
I'm gonna make a prediction and say that Spirit's days are numbered on the low end now.
Isn't US originating traffic the most lucrative anyways though? Or am I missing something.
SE Asian countries can purchase J fares often at half or even less of what US originating traffic yields. If there is an increase in US originating traffic that will certainly offset the decline.
@ yoloswag420 -- Yes, generally fares are higher from the US than to the US. That being said, I can't imagine the growth in US travelers will be sustained, given the short term economic hardship that's coming.
For example, just look at how Delta lowered its forecast massively in early March. Even if Delta can fill planes, it can't do so with the yields it hopes for.
On top of that, a drop in foreign...
@ yoloswag420 -- Yes, generally fares are higher from the US than to the US. That being said, I can't imagine the growth in US travelers will be sustained, given the short term economic hardship that's coming.
For example, just look at how Delta lowered its forecast massively in early March. Even if Delta can fill planes, it can't do so with the yields it hopes for.
On top of that, a drop in foreign visitors has bigger implications for the US tourism industry at large, beyond just the airlines. US airlines probably prefer if you fly abroad (since fares are typically more), but of course that's not the case for US hotels, tourist attractions, etc.
Imagine a family member who is a European citizen and travels to Orlando to fulfill their kids' dream of going to Disney World. But, upon arrival, is denied entry into the United States because of a Facebook comment that was critical of the Administration. Nothing more. Dreams are dashed and the entire cost of the trip is lost. Some people hear this kind of story and say they don't want the risk. This is incredibly sad but not unexpected.
It's also completely fabricated.
"It's also completely fabricated."
Maine would disagree.
You sure...I mean ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE?
Because no person in their rational mind would risk coming to a destination where there is even the hint of a whisper that they or their family might be refused entry based on a years-old social media post, or an honest statement that they are not happy with the current head of the Executive branch.
And then what if, in addition to that slight, faint chance...
You sure...I mean ARE YOU ABSOLUTELY SURE?
Because no person in their rational mind would risk coming to a destination where there is even the hint of a whisper that they or their family might be refused entry based on a years-old social media post, or an honest statement that they are not happy with the current head of the Executive branch.
And then what if, in addition to that slight, faint chance there is ALSO a minimal but still plausible outcome where you or your family are not just refused entry, but also placed in an immigration prison for weeks or months until the _private corporation that runs it_ gets around to deporting you.
So, Art, you wanna bet you or your family's security that "it's...fabricated"? No way on this planet that I will recommend _anyone_ not an actual American citizen try to enter the US now. And I don't mean "green card," "long term permanent resident..." Nope. Unless you were born here stay away- for your own peace of mind and body.
You’re correct in a sense. For example, 113 Canadians were arrested and detained by ICE. Did not see one news article about any of those.
I imagine that when the numbers for 2025 are published they will show a massive increase in arrests.
Lèse-majeste. Making it a crime to insult the head of state.
In a few days that troglodyte c-t has alienated countries who had good relationships and is responsible for a global recession. I’ve seen stories of Americans who have small businesses they’ve taken years to build up who are going to fold because of what he’s done. Many import products from overseas as they can’t be produced in bulk locally. He doesn’t care...
Lèse-majeste. Making it a crime to insult the head of state.
In a few days that troglodyte c-t has alienated countries who had good relationships and is responsible for a global recession. I’ve seen stories of Americans who have small businesses they’ve taken years to build up who are going to fold because of what he’s done. Many import products from overseas as they can’t be produced in bulk locally. He doesn’t care about the average American. He promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Nothing.
President McKinley was assassinated in 1901 because of tariffs.
Indeed, though I suspect right now he and his family and friends are pouring money into the stock market ahead of him getting rid of most of these tariffs in 2 weeks time. The greatest insider trading scam in history.
Moral of the story? don’t post all your stupid thoughts on Facebook. Do it the old fashioned way - meet a like minded friend for coffee and pour it all out on them.
@TB
The First Amendment to our Constitution supposedly prevents the government from punishing people for their speech, but apparently Rs don't care about the Constitution when it's their own party in charge.
Do you honestly think there's a CBP officer scanning your Facebook posts as you present your passport? Get real. You'd have to do something really big to get on anybody's radar.
No shortage of people will read your post and think that's its true. COVID taught us that if something comes from the "expertise class" people will accept it lock, stock and barrel. Or a post on social media will often do.
LALF just posted an article about Scott Kirby praising the tariffs at some event at SFO. Admittedly, Kirby didn't "praise" them but walked the diplomatic line of agreeing with them superficially while referencing something that everyone can agree is good: more middle class jobs. Wonder if his tune will change when/if the demand for travel from both foreigners *and* Americans dips further.
@ DCAWABN -- Kirby is saying what he has to in order to stay on Trump's good side, and get approval to buy JetBlue. ;-)
And get the bailouts that are likely to follow
Exactly. Hence the "diplomatic" caveat. Which is exactly what a good businessman would do. I don't blame him, but it's still really transparent and tad eyeroll-inducing.
United is in deep Doodoo right now. A massive international route system, huge aircraft and terminal expansion, commitments, and underpaid employees. It was never a given of this huge growth of travel demand would last. Scott Kirby has mortgage the farm and United employees will pay dearly for it.
Oh, how dreary life must be when Tim's only pleasure is found in the misery of others. I daresay, if this wretched soul spent half as much time cultivating a sense of decency as they do composing barbed comments from the shadows of their keyboard, they might actually be tolerable at dinner parties—though I suspect that’s a mercy we’ll never be granted.
Still, it is rather pathetic, isn't it? Like a child pressing their nose...
Oh, how dreary life must be when Tim's only pleasure is found in the misery of others. I daresay, if this wretched soul spent half as much time cultivating a sense of decency as they do composing barbed comments from the shadows of their keyboard, they might actually be tolerable at dinner parties—though I suspect that’s a mercy we’ll never be granted.
Still, it is rather pathetic, isn't it? Like a child pressing their nose to the glass of a world they’ll never belong to, cackling at the warmth they cannot feel.
United is in trouble, but not from idiosyncratic risks. They face the same troubles that Delta, American, Southwest, JetBlue, etc. Domestic travel is going to get hit hard if we get a recession, which ironically would help United during contract negotiations. The bigger worry for airlines will be if OPEC decides to cut supply. Brent Oil is down over the last few days, and that will help airlines survive. FWIW, DAL is down 37% ytd,...
United is in trouble, but not from idiosyncratic risks. They face the same troubles that Delta, American, Southwest, JetBlue, etc. Domestic travel is going to get hit hard if we get a recession, which ironically would help United during contract negotiations. The bigger worry for airlines will be if OPEC decides to cut supply. Brent Oil is down over the last few days, and that will help airlines survive. FWIW, DAL is down 37% ytd, UAL 40%, LUV 23%, and AAL 45%. I do remember you saying you would short airline stocks back in December, so hopefully you did!
Dunn,
to be fair United's underpaid employees is an advantage in a period of crisis. They won't have to fire and rehire to lower wages.
Aircraft manufacturers have already explained they are ready to shift deliveries to accommodate tariffs. Let's see to which extent they can defer deliveries. Let's not forget United has been fairly patriotic in its aircraft orders and that might help them somewhat.
Oil prices have come down and should...
Dunn,
to be fair United's underpaid employees is an advantage in a period of crisis. They won't have to fire and rehire to lower wages.
Aircraft manufacturers have already explained they are ready to shift deliveries to accommodate tariffs. Let's see to which extent they can defer deliveries. Let's not forget United has been fairly patriotic in its aircraft orders and that might help them somewhat.
Oil prices have come down and should stay low for as long as reduced demand sticks which should help everyone but more those with older aircraft.
I think United is not short of options to ride the wave and snatch JetBlue in the process. The overextended network is not an asset, granted.
American's situation looks direr to me. I don't really see a place in the market for them except for the sake of keeping OW presence on US soil.
I think we'll see chapter 11s from American and LCCs and the US airline market will emerge pruned and consolidated.
I see Delta unchanged, United absorbing JetBlue. Not sure how consolidation will go on the LCC side. I see room only for 2 LCCs ultimately: a barebone one and one doing something a little more premium. I see Allegiant Spirit and Frontier ultimately consolidating in a A320-family-heavy ULCC and Southwest absorbing Breeze and its A220s and chipping at legacy carriers once they figure out how to play there.
That last paragraph ignores the current financial situation of all those airlines but the tank in stock market makes acquisitions cheap. Funds are going to have a field day.
@Tim Dunn. It seems like lower contracts are a good thing given what's coming. One can say that Delta gave big contracts too fast and a reckoning is about to happen.
As to UA Intl, they are becoming pretty good at being nimble. Seems like they are going for Asia Pacific a bit more now and can easily put the breaks on to Europe in fast order. There are a lot of 767's (like...
@Tim Dunn. It seems like lower contracts are a good thing given what's coming. One can say that Delta gave big contracts too fast and a reckoning is about to happen.
As to UA Intl, they are becoming pretty good at being nimble. Seems like they are going for Asia Pacific a bit more now and can easily put the breaks on to Europe in fast order. There are a lot of 767's (like Delta) that can be quickly retired in a pullback. As well older 777's.
But you are in a tunnel. It's hard to see much from there. If you want to obsess on AA vulnerabilities that would make sense. They are. But you are fixated on UA because, you know full well, they are the viable competitor to DL.
In a dictatorship the first thing that goes is free speech.
Update to your Mexican tourists jailed story: Trump’s hostage team freed them and they’re now home.
"Trump’s hostage team freed them..."
LOL!!!!!!11!!!!
This is surprising, as the DOJ has been telling a judge in Maryland that people unlawfully deported to and imprisoned in another country cannot be retrieved by our government, as we are powerless over another country's sovereign legal and prison systems. It's almost as if the Trump Administration is flat out telling lies.
So much for the "TATL segment won't decline" reply I got just two days ago... The real question is where does this leave airlines relying on that segment. US airlines are screwed either way (no incoming business, and locals won't have money to travel), but to what extent will European airlines be able to redeploy their capacity elsewhere? The biggest problem is that many of them have relied on TATL as market where they don't...
So much for the "TATL segment won't decline" reply I got just two days ago... The real question is where does this leave airlines relying on that segment. US airlines are screwed either way (no incoming business, and locals won't have money to travel), but to what extent will European airlines be able to redeploy their capacity elsewhere? The biggest problem is that many of them have relied on TATL as market where they don't have to compete on quality because their competition is AA, UA and DL, which are not exactly premium airlines, so they could just cut costs and still get nice yield because the capacity was lacking compared to the demand. LHG and IAG can remove capacity from TATL and add Asian routes, but that won't work that well, since they can't really compete on the Asian market where people can choose much better airlines - and more they dump capacity there, the more they have to sacrifice the yield.
I was thinking European carriers may focus more on regional flights and/or increase frequency or capacity to former/current colonies. The many Europeans I know have cancelled plans or have stopped existing planning for trips to the US. Instead, they're looking more around Southern Europe (the Med, essentially) and South America for leisure destinations away from mainland Europe and the UK. This comes from European friends/neighbors where I live *in* a PIGS country. Will be interesting...
I was thinking European carriers may focus more on regional flights and/or increase frequency or capacity to former/current colonies. The many Europeans I know have cancelled plans or have stopped existing planning for trips to the US. Instead, they're looking more around Southern Europe (the Med, essentially) and South America for leisure destinations away from mainland Europe and the UK. This comes from European friends/neighbors where I live *in* a PIGS country. Will be interesting to see wide-bodies on formerly A321/739 flights much like Japan does domestically.
@ Samo -- European airlines are in huge trouble as well. They're heavily reliant on their transatlantic joint ventures for long haul flight profitability, and there's just not the sudden increased demand that allows a material shift of capacity. Of course they can tweak flights a bit and over time try to evolve their networks, but it will involve a lot of short term pain, no doubt.
Everyone who voted for Trump should visit us here in North Korea! You'll love it, we also have a fat loser dictator who attacks his critics, believes the world is screwing him over, loves big macs, demands perfect loyalty, and has to rent his wife.
Spoken like you've read about the country from Western propaganda.
Yes, Eskimo, US CBP are known for putting out propaganda, carefully disguised as actual data/facts
Simple question: How many people are trying to escape *to* North Korea and how many people are trying to escape *from* North Korea?
Simple answer:
"escape *to*"
In late March 2025, the US saw a decrease of over 20% in terms of foreigners passing through US immigration.
"escape *from*"
Conversely, we saw a significant increase in Americans traveling abroad, with late March seeing an increase of nearly 14%.
The rent his wife comment is just out of line. If you have your secret police watching their family you certainly don’t have to pay rent. Trump lets his 3rd wife spend as little time with him as possible - he’s certainly better in the category. The rest is spot on though
There is no such thing as "North Korea". It is the DPRK, Democratic People's Republic of Korea. It is the ENTIRE peninsula, including Seoul, Incheon, Busan, etc.
And the great leader is not a "fat loser".
Do not write bad things about the great leader because he has hackers that will try to retaliate. Don't laugh. Look at Sony Pictures, who made a comedy about North Korea and has massively hacked.