Our aviation system is under serious stress at the moment. The record-long government shutdown is causing an increase in the number of sick calls among air traffic controllers, and our system has very little slack in the first place.
The FAA is also requiring airlines to cancel a certain percentage of flights, and that’s intended to help with operational reliability and staffing shortages. So, how is that all working out?
In this post:
Flight delays & cancelations keep increasing
At the moment, we’re starting to see a real dip in operational reliability among US airlines. Just to look at some of the data for flight cancellations and delays, here’s how the four biggest US carriers did on Friday, November 7, 2025:
- American canceled 5% of flights, delayed 20% of flights
- Delta canceled 4% of flights, delayed 17% of flights
- Southwest canceled 3% of flights, delayed 30% of flights
- United canceled 4% of flights, delayed 27% of flights
Meanwhile here’s how they did on Saturday, November 8, 2025:
- American canceled 7% of flights, delayed 32% of flights
- Delta canceled 10% of flights, delayed 32% of flights
- Southwest canceled 4% of flights, delayed 26% of flights
- United canceled 6% of flights, delayed 31% of flights
As you can see, between flight delays and cancellations, it’s very hard to fly reliably. Also keep in mind that Saturday is the day that often has a little more slack in the schedule, so the fact that things got materially worse going from Friday to Saturday isn’t good news.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the FAA’s operations plan advisory, and seeing all the airports that are impacted by staffing triggers, etc. The impacts will go way beyond that, though, given the domino effect of irregular operations, and how hard it can be for airlines to recover when there’s widespread unreliability.
I wouldn’t want to be flying in the coming days
It sure seems to me like things will get worse before they get better, so I can’t imagine that the coming days will be looking any better than they do now (and likely even worse). This all raises two points.
First of all, on some level it sure feels like air traffic controllers essentially have the blessing of the Transportation Secretary to not show up at work next week. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had “hinted” that our airspace may close next week, which is a prediction we’ve never seen a Transportation Secretary make. That almost seems like a “wink wink, nudge nudge” to controllers to not show up to work.
Second, while we know that airline operational reliability is what has the ability to end the shutdown in theory (it’s what ended the 2019 shutdown), we’re at such a standstill politically that it’s hard to figure out which side would even compromise.
Virtually everyone agrees the shutdown should end, but there’s zero ability to compromise to actually make that happen. It seems like the Trump administration is hoping that widespread operational issues will cause the Democrats to cave, but it doesn’t seem likely that things will play out that way, without some compromise.
On Friday, Democrats made a proposal to reopen the government with a “clean” continuing resolution, plus a one-year extension of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Healthcare is a sticking point for Democrats, though Republicans aren’t down for negotiating on that front, it seems. So that’s where we’re at…
Bottom line
We’re currently seeing a material uptick in flight delays and cancellations in the United States, especially as we’ve gone from Friday to Saturday. With the uptick in staffing triggers, I imagine that Sunday and Monday will be really rough as well.
Challenges with our aviation system ended the last government shutdown, though politically, this one might not be quite as easy to end. If you’re flying in the coming days, good luck, and pack your patience!
How do you see this situation playing out in the coming days?
Keep in mind there is strong winter weather working its way across the country so that alone is creating problems
Where's the punch line Tim?
We're expecting you to say something like Delta planes are more profitable with the cold temperatures.
Or 767 is the most consistent premium plane across the Atlantic during shutdown.
Try harder, Tim. Btw, TATL is going great. 570mph at 36,000. Haulin’ donkies up here.
Maybe tell your buddies at DAL to tell the Republicans to finally earn Democrats votes for a bi-partisan budget and reopen today.
Except life on earth is not lived at 35k feet. And those tailwinds are a clue the atmosphere below might not be stable
Northern tier airports including YYZ are seeing delays today
They can still find good routes and altitudes to mitigate. I’m headed west, today, and it’s been just fine. Ironically, eastbound a few days ago was more of an ordeal; something to do with French airspace issues. At least their governments are all still open…
Real issue is in Pacific; that typhoon about to hit Philippines is scary stuff.
HOLD YOUR GROUND!
NO HEALTHCARE FOR ILLEGALS!!!
Yes dave, and at the same time NO HEALTHCARE FOR CITIZENS EITHER!!!
AND SOON THERE WILL BE NO MEDICAID OR MEDICARE.
BUT BY ALL MEANS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE GROUND!!!
Yes Justin and at the same time doctors can't travel to save sick people or people dies from mid air collision.
AND SOON THE WILL BE NO HEALTH TO CARE FOR EITHER!!!
BUT BY ALL MEANS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE GROUND!!!
P.S. You really believe politicians from either sides actually care about your healthcare?
Oh, I was saying ‘hold your ground’ FOR healthcare FOR Americans. How ironic!
Do you mean Native Americans or Colonial Americans. How ironic!
Eskimo, if you were asking me, I think healthcare is a human right, so all Americans, and I’d go so far to say, all humans, globally, but that’s not just a USA-issue. Canada’s doing a better job providing essential care to all its people. No system is perfect, but we have a lot of work to do to serve our people better. I doubt you even meant your comment in good faith, but for the others, I at least want to address the issue.
Controllers don't need a wink or a nudge to not show up for work. They ain't getting paid!!!
There's a thing called pride in what you do
I agree, but most don't. Pride also doesn't pay bills if you have no emergency savings. Which again, most don't.
For real Alonzo! If I couldn’t pay my employees I may ask them to come in if they are able, but no wink wink nod nod is needed!
To make this worse, the ORANGE LORD and his minions have been saying that the federal workers who are working without pay might not get back pay. MAGA indeed.
Alonzo, in the past, you have taken positions supporting the administration, so I don’t even know what you’re really trying to say here.
The reality is that Trumo and Republicans failed these ATC controllers; they weaponized government and are holding their livelihoods hostage; they’re harming all Americans, too.
This a long overdue break . There is a tendency to add more flights to an overworked system . The purpose was growth for private airlines , while taxpayers footed the infrastructure bills . Even if only 50% of flights are cancelled , it will be merely a good start . There were far fewer flights during covid , and everything was OK .
Also, less air pollution.
No. Privatization is not the answer. This isn’t some climate change issue either. Don’t buy into Alert’s distractions.
Yes system is overworked.
More prone to human errors than ever.
Automation is like 30 years overdue.
Time to get rid of all of human error once and for all.
Why are some of you blaming the republican party?
Ultimately, the blame squarely lies with the idiots who voted to elect this administration. The adage remains ever true: We elect the leaders we deserve.
Perhaps this will result in airlines operating more efficiently. My last business trip for the year in October from DCA-LAX on AA, its A319 went tech and then cancelled. I was rerouted and the second leg of my reroute had a...
Why are some of you blaming the republican party?
Ultimately, the blame squarely lies with the idiots who voted to elect this administration. The adage remains ever true: We elect the leaders we deserve.
Perhaps this will result in airlines operating more efficiently. My last business trip for the year in October from DCA-LAX on AA, its A319 went tech and then cancelled. I was rerouted and the second leg of my reroute had a 2.5 hours delay. I reached my destination 7 hours after originally planned. None of this had anything to do with ATC.
I’ve been blaming Republicans; all of them; voters; the party; elected officials. Because it’s their fault. Period.
Blame your own party - you were the ones who created the "Affordable" Health Care plan and it's been anything but affordable.
Fix the problem you created, instead of just taking your ball and going home.
Period.
Exactly. The GOP is doing exactly what they said they would in 2024. They promised blood and retribution. Who knew is would come from the taxpayers? Oh....everyone knew? Everyone warned the voters? And they did it anyway? Because the voters are, in fact, idiots? Yes. Yes they are.
@1990 @Arnold.
There was an estimated 15 million eligible democratic voters who voted during the Biden/Chump cycle who did not vote this time. There were some independents who voted for Chump.
The blame is not all republicans fault. There is enough of it to go around.
justindev, well, unless those cowards are blind and dumb, they’ll have to re-learn these lessons the hard way, and Tuesday was a good sign, not just in blue states and cities, but also in GA, MS, and elsewhere. It’ll take time and effort, but we’re going to overcome Trump and the Republican’s who enabled him, soon enough. Don’t get distracted or self-divide on culture-war nonsense either (that’s all they got anymore.)
Very sorry it happened to you , yet perhaps next time better to leave from Dulles , and perhaps on UA , no ?
@Alert,
Regrettably I can't fly UA. For business travel, I must fly the preferred airline designated by the company. It's AA.
I like the shutdown we should keep it like this. As a Libertarian it’s great, we just need the government to sell of airports and privatize and then it is back to normal and even better then before.
Nope. This break it, ‘privatize’ it, ultimately, steal it, is a Republican trojan horse.
Max ... Exactly so .
Alert, every time you try to bring this up, I’m gonna warn people, because it really is a trojan horse. You can keep dishing out your thinly-veiled propaganda, but it’s not gonna work. The American people are not better served by giving away more key infrastructure to billionaires. It’s a bad idea.
For what it's worth, it does seem the very early morning flights at 5 or 6 am seem to have been on time from a few sample major airports I checked
But, somehow the Administration "found" $20 billion to lend to Argentina. What happened to America First? What happened to "no foreign aid"?
Worse. It was $40 billion. Traitors!
Republicans own this. They can end the shutdown today, but chose not to just so they can give billionaires tax cuts, and take away food and healthcare from Americans. Remember this when you vote. Midterms are 358 days away.
And Trump himself says ‘when there’s a shutdown it means the President is weak!’
Thank you RWNJs in the Republic party for yet another stupid, useless, petty fiasco, because you still don’t realize that you are supposed to represent the American people, not rule over the American people.
Don’t worry; we’re gonna vote them all outta office, and hold all the grifters accountable. ‘Hope is alive.’
@Ben, in this case, are airlines expected to offer compensation if one is involuntarily bumped to a flight days later?
Nope. This is why we need an EU-261 equivalent. We need actual air passenger rights legislation. Not perfect but it would help.
Delays due to ATC are not eligible for EU261 compensation but they are eligible for duty of care from the airlines which means they have to pay for food, beverages and hotel accommodation when flights are delayed, even if due to ATC.
Then, let’s pass an even better version that would. Note how I said ‘air passenger rights legislation’ and I meant it. Passengers should not be footing the bill for the airlines or the FAA playing politics either.
EU261 would not cover this.
It is not directly the result of anything done or not done by them.
Then pass something better than EU261. And stop voting for a-holes that screw over the American people. Republicans have never been in-favor of consumer or worker protections; they just want tax cuts for billionaires and de-regulation. Wake up.