Earlier, I covered how United States Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that we could start to see airspace in the United States close as of next week, as a result of the government shutdown. That raised questions as to whether that was a prediction or a threat. Well, there’s now an update, and it’ll start to impact many passengers before the end of the week.
In this post:
Airlines will be forced to cancel flights due to ATC staffing
It has just been announced that flight capacity in the nation’s top 40 high-traffic markets will be reduced by 10% as of Friday, November 7, 2025, assuming the government shutdown continues. The Transportation Secretary claims this is “data based,” though exact details as to how the cuts will be implemented remains to be seen.
It’s not clear how exactly the top 40 market is being defined (are we talking airspace, airports, routes, or what?), but a 10% reduction in overall flight capacity in the United States would translate to roughly 5,000 flights per day, give or take, and could impact hundreds of thousands of air travelers per day.
Officially, the logic here is that this is because air traffic controllers aren’t getting paychecks right now, so there’s an increase in fatigue and sick calls. That being said, one wonders what data is being used to determine the optimum number of flights to cancel, since for the most part, flights are still operating pretty smoothly. Furthermore, air traffic controllers not showing up to work is pretty hard to predict.
If this shutdown drags on much longer and we see air traffic controllers call in sick on a very widespread basis, then a 10% flight reduction won’t do squat. So I guess the idea is to do something, though this strikes me as rather random.
The political implications here are going to be fascinating
There’s no denying that mass flight cancellations will frustrate the public, and in terms of optics and things people agree on (in other words, not food assistance programs), may be the most widespread impact of the shutdown to date. It’s not just those people booked on 10% of flights who will be impacted, but this will of course make it much more difficult to book flights, since flights will be booked out, they’ll be more expensive, etc.
Our air traffic ecosystem is really the thing that has the ability to end the shutdown, given the importance of it to so many people. So it’s going to be worth watching how this plays out politically. Of course in virtually all official communications, the Trump administration is referring to this as the “Democrat Shutdown,” as that’s the narrative they want to portray.
The issue is, that’s not necessarily how the public sees it, and for that matter, it’s not even seemingly how the Trump administration views it:
- The polling I’ve seen all shows that more people blame the Republican party than the Democratic party for the shutdown (again, that’s the polling I’ve seen, and I’m just reporting that — if people see reputable polling that says otherwise, please share it)
- Following yesterday’s elections (a victory for Democrats), Trump blamed the loss of Republicans partly on the government shutdown; that suggests that he acknowledges that the shutdown continuing is worse for Republicans than for Democrats
My point is to say that these flight reductions will create immense political pressure. It sure seems like the Trump administration hopes that Democrats just cave when the public becomes angrier, but that seems highly unlikely.
We’re all entitled to our opinions, and have our own takes, so I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind on how they should feel about who is responsible for the shutdown. I’m simply sharing what polling shows, and what Trump himself acknowledges, and the implications that could have on how this plays out. After all, none of us want our aviation system to be a mess for any longer than it has to be.
Bottom line
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy claims that the FAA will force 10% flight reductions in the nation’s 40 biggest markets, whatever exactly that means. The reason being given is reduced air traffic control staffing due to the shutdown.
Obviously the Trump administration feels pressure to end the shutdown ASAP, and significant flight reductions will increase public pressure on the shutdown ending. That being said, more people seem to view Republicans as being at fault rather than Democrats, so I don’t necessarily see how this is supposed to play out, unless Trump starts to compromise.
How do you see this flight reduction situation playing out?
Everyone whining about dems holding government and Americans hostage probably don’t know, that they are simply following what the world’s 2nd smartest man told them to do, in Sept’24 - Yeah, man. Why shouldn’t we be trying to force this government shutdown fight to get something out of it that’s good for the American people? Like, why have a government, if it’s not a functioning government?
That’s a lot of words… to say… it’s the Republican’s fault.
It’s all a sham to get Donald’s name back in the news. He truly can’t stand it when he is not the center of attention.
What’s this about Epstein??
This is being caused by the democrats and their hostage taking.
LOL!!!!!!!!!11!!!!!
Keep livin’ that incel life, very low IQ individual AndyS!
I'm a lifelong Democrat and I'm looking for a hostage to take. You mind stepping up, Andy? I've got some interesting things that I'd like to try on you.
They say, don’t ‘yuck’ someone else’s ‘yum’ *sizzle*
Trump is supposed to be such an expert “deal maker”, but seems as effective as a 2024 Biden in this shutdown.
Can only negotiate with people who want to cut a deal. Schumer is trying to pander to his progressive base to stop a primary from AOC. The dems were offered a vote on the ACA Covid subsidies and turned it down.
No, they weren't offered a vote unconditionally. They were offered a vote if they gave in on the CR, and only after the CR. Repugnant promises are written in the wind.
If memory serves, Democrats lost in a sweeping referendum in November 2024, ceding control of the Executive branch as well as the House and Senate. Democrats are not in a position to legislate, as Americans broadly rejected their platform. They are now attempting to petulantly hold the American public hostage to force through policy that was voted against in a democratic election. If they wanted to direct policy in 2025, they should have put up...
If memory serves, Democrats lost in a sweeping referendum in November 2024, ceding control of the Executive branch as well as the House and Senate. Democrats are not in a position to legislate, as Americans broadly rejected their platform. They are now attempting to petulantly hold the American public hostage to force through policy that was voted against in a democratic election. If they wanted to direct policy in 2025, they should have put up better candidates and a less radical platform. Lord knows it was a winnable election.
I hope there is ZERO BACKPAY to all those who DID NOT REPORT to work each and every day. No reason for people to get paid doing squat. Every financial adviser I have met in my life tells the same story: you should have at least enough cash to sustain the next 6-months if you were to be fired. We are at month one. Controllers are not minimum wage jobs unlike TSA. Zero reason for that to happen at this stage.
Huge ‘blame the victim’ vibes… yikes.
Minos,
you really do sound like you lead the most boring life I've ever heard of...
This is welcome news , as there are already too many flights .
No, it’s not ‘welcome’ news; and it’s not just flights affected; it’s peoples’ livelihoods; it’s their healthcare on the line.
Republicans should negotiate with Democrats to reopen the government immediately.
1990 meet alert. The troll that promotes propaganda for a buck anywhere. That called Jose Andres a greasy Mexican. Homophobic, xenophobic and an ugly racist. They must be scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Maryland, yeah, I’ve noticed. The d-listers are out in full-force… oof.
The Dems were offered a vote on the ACA subsidies and turned it down.
Nice talking point but no dice. A vote guarantees nothing.
If they wanted guarantees, they should have put forth a platform Americans wanted to vote for in 2024. Democrats LOST control of the Executive, House, and Senate. They do NOT direct policy as a result. Tough cookies.
Quote from Ben - “this may be the most widespread impact of the shutdown to date”.
Errrr, there are 42 million people on SNAP who are missing their food stamps this month. I think the impact on them is bigger and more widespread than the cancellation of just approximately 5000 flights?
Maybe those 42 million people on SNAP should start working like a good hardwroking American?
Eric, many do, some can’t; lest you ever need any assistance of any kind, you should want a robust social safety net for everyone. A country is judged, not by how it treats its wealthy, but by how it treats its least fortunate.
Especially the very elderly, the disabled, and the sick.
Eric, loosen up that MAGA hat.
It's obviously on your head too tight.
Republican President, Republican Senate, Republican Supreme Court.
Republicans control all three branches of government; they are the ones holding the country hostage, just so the ultra-rich can get tax cuts, while the rest of us suffer, starve, and can’t fly. If Republicans want Democrats support for a bi-partisan budget, they should negotiate and compromise with them in good-faith.
As Donald Trump himself has said before:
“A shutdown falls on the President’s lack of leadership....
Republican President, Republican Senate, Republican Supreme Court.
Republicans control all three branches of government; they are the ones holding the country hostage, just so the ultra-rich can get tax cuts, while the rest of us suffer, starve, and can’t fly. If Republicans want Democrats support for a bi-partisan budget, they should negotiate and compromise with them in good-faith.
As Donald Trump himself has said before:
“A shutdown falls on the President’s lack of leadership. He can’t even control his own party and get people together in a room. A shutdown means the president is weak.”
“If you say who gets fired, it always has to be the top. Problems start from the top and they have to get solved from the top…”
“The fact is that the President… is not leading and not getting people into a room.”
Hold the line, friends. Keep fighting the good fight.
Democrats are holding everyone hostage.
Please inform yourself. Control is not possible in the senate where a supermajority (aka filibuster proof majority) is needed to end the stalemate. As in 60 votes in favor of opening the government. There is a majority in favor (55) including 3 democrats. All the opposition votes except for one are democrats. So they need 5 more democrats to get to 60 votes. There have been at least 14 votes so far that failed to open the government.
@Ernesto
The Senate GOP does not have to have 60 votes to remove the filibuster. The filibuster is a rule change, and they've already removed it for other legislation and appointments this year to push Trump's agenda. Focusing on the filibuster is a red herring. Trump and the GOP from the outset refused to negotiate, assuming that the shutdown would be seen as the Dems fault. They were wrong, and no amount of damage...
@Ernesto
The Senate GOP does not have to have 60 votes to remove the filibuster. The filibuster is a rule change, and they've already removed it for other legislation and appointments this year to push Trump's agenda. Focusing on the filibuster is a red herring. Trump and the GOP from the outset refused to negotiate, assuming that the shutdown would be seen as the Dems fault. They were wrong, and no amount of damage control on your part is going to change that. Mostly because your dear leader can't freaking help but put the lie to every talking point you come up with.
Ernesto. Inform yourself: Republicans need to negotiate with Democrats. Period.
My tax cuts were codified in the BBB. You are way out of your depth here. You should watch some school house rock episodes that teach you how the senate works.
Hi Pilot93434. Alrighty then, big-earner. You’re set for life, I guess. Congrats, big dog. Ignore all this noise, then. Enjoy your mega-yacht. Would’ve been nice if you looked out for your fellow man, but, we get it, you got yours… remember to lift up that ladder behind you!
@Pilot93434 - I agree with 1990. The belief that other people not starving or receiving healthcare comes at the cost of your success is a very, very special line of selfish thinking.
The republicans have a majority in the Senate and voted to pass the CR. It is the Dems 60 vote filibuster iz stopping it. Just look at the 15 attempts to pass a clean CR.
Brian W, have you considered that your party (the Republicans) need to earn votes (from Democrats) by negotiating, compromising, and actually proposing a bi-partisan budget together? Because, so far, your team doesn’t seem to want the government open with all your my-way-or-the-highway nonsense…
Your way or the highway? Republicans have put forth a COMPLETELY clean CR, with absolutely no new policy attached to it. It is Democrats who lost complete control of our government in 2024, due to candidates and a policy platform that was wildly unpopular, who are now holding Americans hostage over a “my way or the highway” bad faith ploy. Try winning elections if you want to dictate policy.
which party controls all three branches of the government that can't keep itself open?
I got you! It's the Republicans' fault.
Please inform yourself. Control is not possible in the senate where a supermajority (aka filibuster proof majority) is needed to end the stalemate. As in 60 votes in favor of opening the government. There is a majority in favor (55) including 3 democrats. All the opposition votes except for one are democrats. So they need 5 more democrats to get to 60 votes. There have been at least 14 votes so far that failed to open the government
Ernesto, you’re still wrong, no matter how much you copy-and-paste your disinformation. Republicans need to negotiate with Democrats to reopen the government. That’s it. Not hard. Go tell them.
You show you don't understand how the senate works and how budgets are passed.
Andy, you've proven time and time again that you're part of the poorly educated that Mango Mussolini loves.
Banks and insurance companies will start ratcheting up pressure on them to reopen when they have to pay out a ton of travel insurance claims.
100%
I'm traveling tomorrow. I've had a travel insurance policy (purchased before this shutdown). Hope to not have to use it, but, if I do, I can't wait to see their attempt to deny claims... like, fellas, this is the type of thing you're supposed to cover (why else would we pay for the darn premiums!)
Oh, and we seriously generally need better consumer protections, too. Like, we need an EU-261 equivalent. Once the adults...
100%
I'm traveling tomorrow. I've had a travel insurance policy (purchased before this shutdown). Hope to not have to use it, but, if I do, I can't wait to see their attempt to deny claims... like, fellas, this is the type of thing you're supposed to cover (why else would we pay for the darn premiums!)
Oh, and we seriously generally need better consumer protections, too. Like, we need an EU-261 equivalent. Once the adults are back in-charge, we need reforms on all sorts of important things.
1990, Better read the fine print on that policy!
Hiya, upstater. I have, and hope you do, too. That’s why I do not recommend AIG; those scoundrels. Others have paid, thankfully, including prior shutdowns. As with anything, ‘it depends.’ Gotta fight.
@1990
how old are you? who buys travel insurance in the age of no fee cancels and travel credits?
"...and will be the most widespread impact of the shutdown to date." Perhaps it isn't this, but rather the tens of millions of people losing enough food assistance that will be the most widespread impact.
@ Jarrett -- You're of course 100% right, and I updated the wording on that. My point was to say that in terms of optics, it may have the most widespread impact (especially since a not-insignificant percentage of the population doesn't think food assistance programs should exist).
The reality is that whenever anything goes wrong with the airline industry, it makes the nightly news, so this will no doubt get disproportionate coverage.
This is not a good look for the Administration. The GOP has been trying to stop people from getting healthcare through the ACA since before it even launched. So, here we are 14 years later and the GOP would rather bring our country to a screeching halt rather than give people free or reduced-cost access to basic healthcare. They'd rather that our military who is fighting all fights the GOP has started go without pay...
This is not a good look for the Administration. The GOP has been trying to stop people from getting healthcare through the ACA since before it even launched. So, here we are 14 years later and the GOP would rather bring our country to a screeching halt rather than give people free or reduced-cost access to basic healthcare. They'd rather that our military who is fighting all fights the GOP has started go without pay than give people better access to healthcare and nutritious food. Meanwhile, Dear Leader has spent over $70 million US tax dollars on golf trips since returning to office.
And, somehow, some people of very deep religious convictions (like the preachers who wave automatic weapons during their sermons) seem to think this is all okay and aligned with the teaching of Jesus.
Well said, Parker.
As the commentator David Frum once said: "If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy."
It is the Democrats who did not win democratically, and are attempting to subvert the democratic will of the American people. Your many, many posts seem to take the viewpoint that Democrats are in power. News flash - the American people loudly rejected their agenda in 2024.
Its the democrats that are causing this because they are trying to have a minority lead.
What they are doing is sedition.
No, that’s hyperbolic at best, and downright malicious. Vile, AndyS, like usual.
Taking a redeye from LAX-JFK friday night and flying back Monday. Quite concerned. But if the flight is canceled outbound we will just bail.
Hope your flight still happens, Nate. We're rooting for you!
On the bright side it seems we will know before we have to go to airport.
Finally, climate leadership from the white house
Zing!
LMAO
Time to start negotiating like a democracy.
e pluribus unum
'Out of many, one'
Let's get it done!
We don't negotiate with hostage takers.
Republicans are the hostage takers; the American people are the hostages.
Lie all you want, here and elsewhere; we’ll keep saying the truth, every time.
Hmmm! Republican presidents are always lawless and hypocrites. Reagan negotiated with Ayatollah Khomeini to release American hostages and Trump negotiated with Hamas to release alive Israeli hostages -- two of the three greatest members of Axis of Evil.