Austin is an interesting market for airlines. Southwest has the largest presence at the airport, but it’s also a place where the “big three” US carriers have tried their luck at expansion, despite limited gate space.
A few years ago, we saw American make a big push there, only to retreat. For well over a year now, Delta has been expanding significantly in Austin. The airline has just announced its latest route additions there, and I’m curious to see how this plays out in the long run.
In this post:
Delta adds new routes & flights from Austin
In the coming months, Delta will be adding three new routes out of Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (AUS). The airline will fly to Columbus (CMH), Denver (DEN), and Kansas City (MCI), in addition to increasing frequencies to Indianapolis (IND) and San Francisco (SFO).
With this latest expansion, Delta will serve nearly 30 destinations from the airport, “reinforcing its role as Austin’s leading global carrier” (in other words, not Southwest).
Beyond these latest additions, Delta flies to Austin from all of its hubs — Atlanta (ATL), Boston (BOS), Detroit (DTW), Los Angeles (LAX), Minneapolis (MSP), New York (JFK), Salt Lake City (SLC), and Seattle (SEA).
Delta also serves Austin year-round from Cincinnati (CVG), Indianapolis (IND), Jacksonville (JAX), Las Vegas (LAS), McAllen (MFE), Memphis (MEM), Midland/Odessa (MAF), Nashville (BNA), New Orleans (MSY), Orlando (MCO), Panama City (ECP), Raleigh-Durham (RDU), San Francisco (SFO), and Tampa (TPA). Then there are seasonal routes from Cancun (CUN), Palm Springs (PSP), and San Jose del Cabo (SJD).
What’s also interesting is that we’re increasingly seeing Delta position Austin as a key access point to facilitate connections to its entire network. Going back a year, Delta exclusively approached Austin as a point-to-point market.
Will Delta’s Austin expansion succeed?
The airline industry is a funny business. Airlines expand into markets for all kinds of reasons, even if the service isn’t necessarily directly profitable:
- Sometimes airlines expand for competitive reasons, to keep other airlines out of a market, and view it as part of a larger network strategy
- Sometimes airlines are also willing to lose money in a market for an extended period of time, thinking that once they reach a critical mass of service, it will become profitable
- Sometimes airlines expand largely as a loyalty program play, where they believe having a dominant position in a market will pay off in terms of credit card and other loyalty revenue
For a couple of years, American massively tried to expand its presence in Austin, operating flights to over three dozen airports. Then the airline totally undid that growth, and now Austin is a market where American almost exclusively just flies to other hubs. American had reportedly been losing money on that expansion all along.
So, how will this play out for Delta? First of all, it’s worth acknowledging that Delta has more of a strategic benefit to growing in Austin, since the airline doesn’t otherwise have a hub in the region, unlike American in Dallas (DFW), and United in Houston (IAH), both of which are under 200 miles away. The geography makes a lot of sense for Delta.
I could see merit to Delta growing in Austin in the long run, though the challenge is that the airport doesn’t currently have much space to grow, and is highly congested. So it’ll never become a mega hub, like what American and United have in Texas.
So I’m not sure what to think about how this will play out. My guess is that Delta will continue slowly but surely expanding in Austin, and that it could be a market the airline is increasingly focused on, just due to the geography.
But whether or not the market becomes profitable for the airline remains to be seen. Delta is willing to stick things out for a long time, as long as the airline views it as part of a larger strategy. And I do think that Delta views this as an important strategic interest.
That being said, Delta is also most successful in its fortress hubs, and rarely performs that well (relatively) in markets where it doesn’t have a first place position. In Austin, Delta is second to Southwest by a long shot, and I can’t think of any other Delta focus city where it trails Southwest by such a margin.
Bottom line
Delta is continuing to expand in Austin, with three new routes, which will mean the carrier serves nearly 30 destinations from the airport. It’s interesting to see Delta’s continued expansion in Austin, following American’s retreat.
Admittedly Delta has more strategic benefit from Austin, given it doesn’t otherwise have a hub in Texas, unlike American and United. Whether Delta can profitably go up against Southwest remains to be seen, though…
What do you make of Delta’s Austin expansion?
Delta is making AUS a flight attendant base so…..
Tim, Ishrion just posted that DL will cancel the AUS-MAF flight in November.
Is this still DL’s future powerhouse Texas hub that will go up against UA and AA in IAH and DFW? They’ll need short haul to feed the longer flights, otherwise they’ll just be creating the same connection options available via their other hubs, all for lower fares and yields.
A southwest route where delta lost? Color me shocked
you really think that two flights/day to a small Texas city makes or breaks what DL does in AUS? seriously?
DL hasn't added LBB or AMA which are larger and have far more significance - on top of a half dozen other cities in both east and west Texas, LA, NM.
You do realize that WN doesn't even fly AUS-MAF every day, don't you?
and DL has no intention of building a hub comparable to IAH or DFW anyway.
“ You do realize that WN doesn't even fly AUS-MAF every day, don't you?”
Makes it even more tragic for delta, huh?
Can’t even beat Southwest on a non daily route?
That’s the second intra-Texas route they’ve dropped from AUS.
If the goal is to serve Texas and fill the gap in the region, those regional flights are important.
Otherwise they’re just flying connections from CMH to SAN who already have options via existing hubs, while doing it for lower fares and yields.
honestly, Mark, out of what, 30 cities DL now serves from AUS and they are adding them faster than they are dropping.
the world doesn't exist to support the status quo and DL figured that out 48 years ago - which is why they have grown from the 6th largest US airline to the largest airline in the world by revenue
Ok, but we’ve already covered UA makes more airline revenue than DL.
And if we’re going back 48 years, UA went from not flying to Asia or Europe to being the largest airline in both regions.
That’s what mergers and acquisitions do.
"honestly, Mark, out of what, 30 cities DL now serves from AUS and they are adding them faster than they are dropping."
Tim
let's get this out there
Will Delta say their Austin focus city/hub is profitable publicly before 2035?
Put yourself on notice and step up
now, Mark, we have covered that you cherrypick whatever you can to tout how well UA does but UA does operate a loyalty program and credit card; they just don't make as much money as DL.
DL breaks out its refinery operations because no other airline operates one. THAT is the basis for comparison between AA, DL and UA and every other US airline whether you like what it says or not.
as for mergers...
now, Mark, we have covered that you cherrypick whatever you can to tout how well UA does but UA does operate a loyalty program and credit card; they just don't make as much money as DL.
DL breaks out its refinery operations because no other airline operates one. THAT is the basis for comparison between AA, DL and UA and every other US airline whether you like what it says or not.
as for mergers and acquisitions, DL has done them too. DL just managed to built a higher revenue and higher profit airline in the process.
and UA has done far more to grow its TPAC and TATL networks on its own above and beyond the mergers.
Max,
DL doesn't report its profitability by hub and neither does any other airline regardless of what statements they might make.
Delta ALWAYS says when a hub is profitable. and you know that, Tim.
don't be a loser
Embraer 175s. I would rather fly Southwest (the Arby's of airlines).
DL has gone from the 6th largest US airline in 1978 when the US airline industry was deregulated to the largest airline in the world by revenue. It's also worth noting that AA and UA both opposed deregulation while DL supported it. the last 48 years show why DL has taken full advantage of deregulation to grow not just in the south where it was strong long before 1978 but also in highly competitive markets...
DL has gone from the 6th largest US airline in 1978 when the US airline industry was deregulated to the largest airline in the world by revenue. It's also worth noting that AA and UA both opposed deregulation while DL supported it. the last 48 years show why DL has taken full advantage of deregulation to grow not just in the south where it was strong long before 1978 but also in highly competitive markets including NYC and LAX where it is the largest airline today, pushing AA and UA out of the top spots in both of those markets.
DL has managed to build 2 new hubs in the past 10 years and AUS appears set to be its next. AA and UA have started precisely how many new hubs?
WN is clearly in DL's crosshairs as DL adds to its strength in the middle of the country but DL is clearly ratcheting up the competition with UA with new routes directly competitive with UA in its route announcements over the last two months.
DL didn't do that by staying in its lane.
THAT is why I respect and cheer for DL.
and why so many people don't want to hear my cheer them on.
You can respect an establishment without worshipping it. What you do is blind adulation. Also your NYC metric is wack and includes regionals, and in LA, Delta has an under 40% share. I’m happy that they push other airlines to be better and have been successful, but as we have seen with WN, nothing lasts forever.
Tim, DL’s airline revenue is less than UA’s. UA is also more profitable from airline operations. DL is more profitable overall due to credit card revenue, a gap UA will surely close, especially with creation of Kinnective media to enhance their customer reach.
DL has added hubs since they have had several large gaps in several of the strongest economic areas of the country. Their one northeast hub was a split operation in NYC,...
Tim, DL’s airline revenue is less than UA’s. UA is also more profitable from airline operations. DL is more profitable overall due to credit card revenue, a gap UA will surely close, especially with creation of Kinnective media to enhance their customer reach.
DL has added hubs since they have had several large gaps in several of the strongest economic areas of the country. Their one northeast hub was a split operation in NYC, one of which is constrained by a perimeter rule. Nobody will win LAX, and DL, with only 20% share, is nowhere close to being dominant at the airport. After closing the DFW hub, there was no strong presence in one of the strongest state economies in the country.
So they added SEA, with data showing it’s an underperforming hub up against an increasingly strong AS. Already DL is reacting to AS moves through some of the European route additions. Adding HKG from LAX instead of SEA, where they would have been the only airline flying the route, speaks to limits of that hub.
They added BOS, also one of the smaller hubs in the region, paling in comparison to UA’s EWR hub, the strongest northeast hub of any airline.
Now they’re adding an RJ-heavy focus city in AUS, where they’re a distant number two to WN and adding routes like DEN with two RJs, up against all mainline schedules on UA, WN, and F9.
UA has hubs in some of the strongest O&D economic powerhouses of the country. They are continuing to strengthen their already strong hubs, gaining market share in all of them.
In NYC, they have to operate approximately 15% more flights to carry a similar number of passengers and a fraction of the cargo. That speaks to the reliance on RJs and the inefficiencies of a split airport hub.
Ben has also posted a story on top revenue routes, highlighting that DL brings in less revenue on transcons and only has three NYC routes in their top ten while UA has six NYC routes in their top ten. Not to mention that UA’s top 6-10 rank above DL’s number six route.
Assuming similar NYC costs (ignoring the fact that DL’s costs are likely higher due to higher CASM use of RJs and an inefficient split hub, UA’s NYC operation is more profitable than DL’s operation there.
So yes, DL has fortress hubs that bolster the weaker hubs they’ve added more recently. They’re a less profitable airline operation that is bolstered by credit card revenue. They also have political power in ATL that manages to squash meaningful competition in another potential airport.
All that said, they’re a good airline. Not as profitable at the airline operations as UA, and not as well-rounded an international and domestic network, but they’re trying to branch out from their fortress hubs, as well as their underperforming ones, so credit where credit is due.
Mark,
you truly think that major carriers don't control the revenue of their revenue carriers?
No airline has more than 25% but DL is the largest at LAX and that clearly bothers you.
Mark,
there is precisely ZERO revenue data that has been released since UA's operational meltdown and the massive EWR capacity cuts.
all of the rest of your blabbering can be summed up in one sentence: UA earns $1 billion less...
Mark,
you truly think that major carriers don't control the revenue of their revenue carriers?
No airline has more than 25% but DL is the largest at LAX and that clearly bothers you.
Mark,
there is precisely ZERO revenue data that has been released since UA's operational meltdown and the massive EWR capacity cuts.
all of the rest of your blabbering can be summed up in one sentence: UA earns $1 billion less per quarter in domestic revenue than DL and AA does in the domestic market.
I said years ago that if the international market is as profitable as UA acts like it is - after UA lost money in the Pacific in the late 2010s as the largest carrier - DL would start international routes.
DL's gunning for UA is not a mistake. It is just the beginning salvo in a battle not just to determine if UA's lofty domestic growth plans will succeed (DL is actually adding more domestic capacity than UA) but also who will carry the torch internationally.
DL knows full well that UA can't possibly intake the hundreds of aircraft it has on order, pay its people DL comparable wages, and generate anywhere close to profits to DL's profits.
DL has played the long game long before the poop dried in Kirby's diaper.
UA desperately thinks it is God's gift to the airline industry and yet DL has outsmarted Kirby and the rest of airline industry for 48 years.
pound away. I just put another cup of popcorn into the popper. This is getting fun. Really fun
Tim, DL’s size in LAX doesn’t bother me at all. I wanted to correct your perception that DL dominates LAX with 20% market share there. UA is a few points behind DL there, but larger internationally and with the crown jewel of west coast hubs up in SFO. DL doesn’t have that so that they have to try to do what they can in LAX and SEA.
I never said the majors don’t control...
Tim, DL’s size in LAX doesn’t bother me at all. I wanted to correct your perception that DL dominates LAX with 20% market share there. UA is a few points behind DL there, but larger internationally and with the crown jewel of west coast hubs up in SFO. DL doesn’t have that so that they have to try to do what they can in LAX and SEA.
I never said the majors don’t control revenue of their regionals. You’re confusing me with someone else.
And regarding EWR, most of UA’s capacity reductions were done months in advance due to the runway construction. More was done when FAA had the meltdown, but none of those high revenue markets were drawn down.
Most importantly, the FAA meltdown caused UA short-term pain but long-term they got exactly what they wanted. The capacity limits DL has enjoyed for decades in JFK and LGA. All of the high-revenue markets are still intact while operating out of a more reliable airport.
And no, we haven’t seen 2025 revenue figures yet, but EWR had operational issues through 2024 and UA’s number ten revenue route, LGA-ORD, made more than DL’s top 6-10 revenue routes. The only DL NYC routes that made more revenue than UA’s LGA-ORD route (a route not even out of UA’s powerhouse EWR hub) were DL’s routes from JFK-SFO/LAX and LGA-ATL.
UA had five additional EWR routes that significantly outperformed most of DL’s top revenue routes system wide.
How much do you think that changed this year? UA has already said EWR numbers are back to normal with good reliability. DL still has a huge number of RJ routes up against UA mainline.
And UA is approaching 300 737 MAXes and A321NEOs already in its fleet, allowing them to successfully upgauge across the system and significantly increase revenue, all while increasing profits into DL’s league and actually outperforming them in Q1.
That’s why DL is gunning for UA. UA is firing on all cylinders, makes more airline revenue, outperforms DL financially in NYC, and has hundreds more planes being delivered soon.
That’s why DL is adding two RJ flights from AUS-DEN and three LAX-ORD flights against UA’s eleven. DL has to chase the higher revenue in UA’s hubs to make sure they don’t fall too far behind.
Mark,
it is amazing how hard you work to defend fractions of a share advantage at EWR and can't stand to admit that DL has a 20% size advantage over AA and UA at LAX.
and, no, UA did not cancel most of the capacity that had share losses it had at EWR months in advance. The media was full of UA flights cancelled at the last minute because the airport simply could not...
Mark,
it is amazing how hard you work to defend fractions of a share advantage at EWR and can't stand to admit that DL has a 20% size advantage over AA and UA at LAX.
and, no, UA did not cancel most of the capacity that had share losses it had at EWR months in advance. The media was full of UA flights cancelled at the last minute because the airport simply could not handle it.
you can and will argue about how great UA's top routes perform - but they don't and make up for the fact that DL serves far more domestically from NYC than UA does and THAT is what makes the difference. as much as you want to pretend that UA's service to AGP, Nuuk, and a few Portuguese islands matter more than MCI and MKE, there is virtually no corporate revenue to those leisure destinations compared w/ a couple dozen medium sized US cities where DL has a distinct revenue advantage.
Even in the examples you use, DL isn't trying to carry all the traffic but have enough of a presence to carry the traffic that matters esp. since you can't defend how small UA's presence in markets like ATL where UA doesn't hold a candle to DL or in Florida where UA isn't even in the top 5.
If you didn't try so hard to spin reality to ignore facts that everyone else except you understands, you might be credible but you prove that you are the most biased and illogical UA defender even w/ the data you clearly have.
UA's domestic presence is considerably smaller than AA and DL's.
passenger revenue both in the US and overseas is just part of the same formula that UA chose to accept but UA has not developed near as well as DL because UA didn't realize until a couple years ago that credit card contracts have little interest in foreign point of sale traffic.
Well, Timbo, now I really gotta ask — why you ain’t spending the night with your “wife,” sugar? You been flirtin’ and screwin’ around with Delta like it’s a hot young thing on the side, cheerin’ it louder than you cheer for her, and I’m bettin’ she’s startin’ to notice. Baby, a spreadsheet don’t keep you warm at night, and bless your heart, neither do you.
Sugar, at this point I’d say you love Delta more than your “wife,” your knees, and probably even your mama’s sweet tea. And that, Timbo, is sayin’ something.
lemme guess.
You're yet another UA luvin fraud that can't stand that the truth is coming out in response to the nonsense posted by your "colleagues"
Yeah, she is right here next to me.
Oh, Timbo, sugar, that’s cute — real cute. You say she’s “right there next to you,” but bless, I gotta squint real hard to see her through all that Delta devotion. Tell me, honey, does she come with a boarding pass, or is she more of a seatmate in your imagination?
I take care of you.
My AI takes care of you.
Quit letting your jealousy show.
None of which changes that DL is about ready to let all you know what loose on you know who that thinks they are the cat's meow.
These are the postings of an insane person. Or poorly mapped AI.
Oh, sugar, nobody’s handing you care, least of all me. And the idea of some drunk fool near midnight in Georgia thinking he can ‘take care’ of me? Honey, bless your delusional little heart—sit your drunk behind down and let the adults handle real life.
Keep dreaming, sugar.
Sweetheart, it seems you’ve had a lot more… hands-on experience in certain places than others. Don’t act like you know how to ‘handle’ me.
well, look at you. Got that Sonic shake and sat up all night long next to the public library just to get the internet signal.
another low-life fraud like you isn't hard to handle esp. since you add nothing to the discussion.
Do you even know where Texas is, darling?
Tim, bless your Wi-Fi lovin’ little heart — talk all you want, sugar, but even a busted up Spirit Airlines seat has more dignity than you just showed tryin’ to clap back at me.
dignity is showing up to discuss the topic, not putting on same fake charade to divert more attention.
you reap what you sow
Why are you using MY screen name, "Julie"?
I was Julie here before either of you. Go away.
Don't forget. DFW used to be a Dallas hub. Delta still, I believe, has DFW crew. They have a Sky Club. It's possible to book connections through DFW on Delta.com. There are a lot of Delta elites at DFW despite it being an American hub.
Who is flying Austin-Columbus or Austin-Indianapolis more than once a day?
Oh honey, Delta ‘elites’ at DFW? The only thing elite about flyin’ Delta in Texas is the skill it takes to survive the layovers. Ain’t nobody in this state clutchin’ their pearls over a Sky Club when American’s runnin’ the show and Southwest’s haulin’ the rest. Bless your heart if you think Texans are out here beggin’ Delta for two trips a day to Columbus — folks would rather hitch a ride in the back of a Buc-ee’s truck than ‘stay loyal’ to that nonsense.
Here we go again with the incessant world's only PERFECT airline implications.
just facts to counter those who can't stand that DL is once again growing in major competitive markets and targeting strength markets for other big 4 carriers and not the weak and frail ultra low cost sector
Nothing more pathetic than slavishly and incessantly supporting a CORPORATION. And one that fired you to boot. FFS you are pathetic.
UA-NYC,
that is as laughable as it is ignorant.
Who would get fired from a company and then "slavishly and incessantly" support it? Makes no sense.
Grits,
baby, did I miss it or did I ever answer if you have ever left the county where you were born?
How many hours per week do you spend at the public library to use the internet?
Oh Tim honey, bless your heart — I’ve left my county so many times Delta’s old MD-88s probably have my perfume baked into the vinyl seats. Unlike you, I don’t need a library card to get Wi-Fi, sugar, I pay my own bill. And let’s not pretend loyalty is some mystery: you’ve been carrying Delta’s water longer than Scarlett carried a candle for Ashley, even after they’d toss you quicker than peanuts in coach. Georgia...
Oh Tim honey, bless your heart — I’ve left my county so many times Delta’s old MD-88s probably have my perfume baked into the vinyl seats. Unlike you, I don’t need a library card to get Wi-Fi, sugar, I pay my own bill. And let’s not pretend loyalty is some mystery: you’ve been carrying Delta’s water longer than Scarlett carried a candle for Ashley, even after they’d toss you quicker than peanuts in coach. Georgia peach to Georgia peach, darlin’ — we both know you’re just mad that my sass has more reach than your mile-long manifestos.
Now see, DesertGhost gets it — Tim Dunn out here preachin’ Delta gospel like he’s fixin’ to get a cut of the Sky Club snack mix. Baby, Texans aren’t buyin’ it. Austin ain’t Atlanta and no amount of hub fairytales is gonna make folks trade in their AA miles or their Southwest drink coupons just to fly Delta to Columbus, Ohio. Tim, you’re singin’ hymns in an empty church, and it sounds about as sad...
Now see, DesertGhost gets it — Tim Dunn out here preachin’ Delta gospel like he’s fixin’ to get a cut of the Sky Club snack mix. Baby, Texans aren’t buyin’ it. Austin ain’t Atlanta and no amount of hub fairytales is gonna make folks trade in their AA miles or their Southwest drink coupons just to fly Delta to Columbus, Ohio. Tim, you’re singin’ hymns in an empty church, and it sounds about as sad as karaoke night at a Waffle House at 3 a.m. — bless your drunk lil’ heart.
DL loves to waste money while they have it. SEA and BOS they are losing their shirt and Austin is another example that will fail. Face it ATL, MSP, DTW and JFK (likely more break even) are their only winners. SLC isn't great for the west and LAX is okay for now through the Olympics but honestly once AA term 4 and 5 open up, AA will be back on top out there. Austin will be gone within 2 years or DL will make it another failed money losing hub.
As somebody who has been in Austin for nearly a decade, it certainly feels like the city "peaked" some time in early 2024. That's not to say that Austin won't remain relevant, or maybe even punch above its weight, because it's certainly wealthy for a city of it's size, but I think the massive growth projections are just off-base.
Personally, much of my network here has moved back to the coasts (or Mexico City)....
As somebody who has been in Austin for nearly a decade, it certainly feels like the city "peaked" some time in early 2024. That's not to say that Austin won't remain relevant, or maybe even punch above its weight, because it's certainly wealthy for a city of it's size, but I think the massive growth projections are just off-base.
Personally, much of my network here has moved back to the coasts (or Mexico City). The tech hubs seem to be stagnant, the "low taxes" myth has been figured out, and frankly the garbage coming out of the State Capitol building isn't doing much to attract people here.
I love Austin, and I wish it could work as a hub, but I don't see how DL can really make it work. Look at the loads on MFE and MSY. They're terrible, just as they were for AA.
there are people that are convinced that Delta loses money w/ its entire Seattle hub and you are worried about a couple of 300 mile RJ flights?
If DL can figure out how to lose as much money on the routes the internet thinks it loses money on and still be the most profitable US airline, then DL needs to start airline CEO classes and sign up the rest of the industry as yet another source of ancillary revenue.
As an Austinite, I'm excited, but what we need is more transatlantic and some new transpacific connectivity. I'm tired of having to drive to Dallas or Houston any time I want a one-stop flight to India or a convenient flight to Australia/Singapore/anywhere else in the world.
Delta will likely take most of the main concourse when the new midfield concourse opens, allowing them plenty of room to expand.
This is definitely a high long...
As an Austinite, I'm excited, but what we need is more transatlantic and some new transpacific connectivity. I'm tired of having to drive to Dallas or Houston any time I want a one-stop flight to India or a convenient flight to Australia/Singapore/anywhere else in the world.
Delta will likely take most of the main concourse when the new midfield concourse opens, allowing them plenty of room to expand.
This is definitely a high long shot, but what would be most interesting is a joint Austin-San Antonio airport near San Marcos. That would have sufficient demand from both cities to conveniently serve as a global hub while AUS and SAT can be like LGA or DCA in operating as convenient city hubs.
the wildcard will be if the DL/KE joint venture starts adding flights to non-hub cities in the US similar to what DL has done from CDG and BA does from LHR.
ICN is by far the best if not the only hub in NE Asia that can support the development of secondary US cities with TPAC service. There are a number of cities that want in so DL/KE can be choosy but an ICN...
the wildcard will be if the DL/KE joint venture starts adding flights to non-hub cities in the US similar to what DL has done from CDG and BA does from LHR.
ICN is by far the best if not the only hub in NE Asia that can support the development of secondary US cities with TPAC service. There are a number of cities that want in so DL/KE can be choosy but an ICN flight is not out of the realm of possibility for AUS. a couple dozen flights east of AUS dramatically changes the calculus of international flights.
"ICN is by far the best if not the only hub in NE Asia that can support the development of secondary US cities with TPAC service."
That doesn't make much sense, seeing as both Tokyo and especially Taipei, have/are doing just that.
HND is the best airport for Tokyo and it has a no occupancy sign up. Flights to NRT aren't going to work = which UA proved by asking to move its IAH flight.
TPE won't work because the Taiwanese carriers don't have deep enough cooperation w/ US airlines to generate second tier cities.
again, ICN and the DL/KE JV is the best hope for secondary cities like AUS, BNA, IND, MCI and others to get a flight to Asia.
Oh yes, the tired old airport dream between SAT and AUS that nobody in either city wants and would force even more traffic on an already crowded I-35 to get there.
I'm curious as to when Delta will begin to fill in the gap with more Texas routes, like Lubbock, El Paso, Amarillo, Corpus Christi, etc.
I guess they feel that they need more critical mass for connections before making a play on those routes, which will probably carry less origin-destination traffic than Southwest (who's been in those intra-Texas market for decades) does.
This. I would imagine that a lot of Southwest’s traffic is regional. Delta won’t become the key player in Austin unless they better serve the local market.
WN itself is shifting away from short haul point to point traffic; it doesn't make money on that type of traffic any more. DL knows that; WN has said it.
DL isn't interested in short haul point to point traffic but it will build enough short haul flights within Texas and the southwest to carry as much of the local market as it needs to plus connect to longer haul domestic markets.
I'd love to see Delta serve Lubbock or Corpus Christi. I used to have to go there 2-3 times a year. I'd just drive from Dallas to Lubbock and from Houston to Corpus Christi. It was annoying.
AUS is overhyped. Their housing market is collapsing and tech is fleeing the area.
Who knows what will happen to the economy in the ten years to complete all the expansion. AUS is low yield city as well. Virgin Atlantic had to axe their AUS route.
This is temporary. It got to be too much of a fad and that bubble burst. But it's far from permanent. It's still a state capital, a research hub that houses a major university, and it's still in a lovely area of Texas. It will do fine in the long term. I remember when Miami was filled with condos in foreclosure and when you could buy a house in Temecula, CA for $80k. Now they're $1.2M. Austin still has potential to grow a lot.
what is with you using my screen name, "Julie"?
hell, if your name is Julie, great. But you usually just use this screen name to say random sh*t and troll normal users.
You seem to be the one saying random sh*t here? Get a grip.
"AUS is low yield city as well. Virgin Atlantic had to axe their AUS route."
Even though Austin's economy is slowing down, they are certainly not a "low yield city," particularly internationally.
Also, I wouldn't take much from Virgin's exit. They had to park multiple 787s due to Rolls-Royce issues (for the third time), and the instant they pulled out of Austin, British Airways came in and filled that capacity with a second flight.
I would take a lot more from Virgin's exit.
They could've axed any other route, if AUS was doing well and supported it. Clearly it was the easiest to drop.
If I have five planes and 6 destinations, the one you choose to not fly is the one that makes the least money.
"They could've axed any other route, if AUS was doing well and supported it. Clearly it was the easiest to drop."
Well duh, it was also their newest, so it's not surprising that it would be selected. You're making way too many anecdotal conclusions from that.
Immortal
VS always will be at a disadvantage to BA on routes from LHR that are not to DL hubs. VS operates most of its network other than to DL hubs on a point to point basis other than some connections to India.
BA and DL have been in something of a tit for tat in developing non-hub US cities which is part of why DL and its JV partners use AMS or...
Immortal
VS always will be at a disadvantage to BA on routes from LHR that are not to DL hubs. VS operates most of its network other than to DL hubs on a point to point basis other than some connections to India.
BA and DL have been in something of a tit for tat in developing non-hub US cities which is part of why DL and its JV partners use AMS or CDG - both larger hubs but smaller local markets - to start new cities in the US that don't have high amounts of local London demand.
>Their housing market is collapsing
Only if you're looking purely at housing prices. Austin is a success story showing that actually building housing, IE increasing supply, makes things more affordable for everyone. I have 0 sympathy for homeowners whose homes increased on average 100% in value over the past decade simply by owning the asset.
"I have 0 sympathy for homeowners whose homes increased on average 100% in value over the past decade simply by owning the asset."
100%. The mentality of "I'm going to build wealth through home ownership" mentality, has been a plague upon future generations.
home wealth is hard to access unless you take out more debt.
and while home values have increased in Texas, so have property taxes which are tied to the value of real estate.
The real wealth that so many middle class are accessing is due to stock appreciation.
none of which changes that Texas is still a strong and growing market and can support a medium sized legacy hub - which is what DL...
home wealth is hard to access unless you take out more debt.
and while home values have increased in Texas, so have property taxes which are tied to the value of real estate.
The real wealth that so many middle class are accessing is due to stock appreciation.
none of which changes that Texas is still a strong and growing market and can support a medium sized legacy hub - which is what DL wants; it is not going to be an ATL or IAH or even an ORD but could be comparable in size to BOS or SEA domestic with a couple international flights but nowhere near what DL has in international flights from either of those two hubs.
Well, I suppose AUS can make for a good mini-hub that fills in the gaping hole in DL's map that was made when they unceremoniously pulled out of DFW three decades ago. Really, it can make DL more viable in the Lone Star state; UA has Houston, AA has DFW, WN has basically the whole state and DL has been out in the cold. With AUS, they can at least get a consolation prize and...
Well, I suppose AUS can make for a good mini-hub that fills in the gaping hole in DL's map that was made when they unceremoniously pulled out of DFW three decades ago. Really, it can make DL more viable in the Lone Star state; UA has Houston, AA has DFW, WN has basically the whole state and DL has been out in the cold. With AUS, they can at least get a consolation prize and one that serves a fast growth region. My opinion is that DL is being very shrewd to approach AUS in the way it is. I can see it working out better for them than SEA, for example (which they do have to keep fighting for).
As for Bergstrom, if DL needs more space, I'm sure that they can expand as needed. It takes time, of course, but there is real estate unlike what some other airports are dealing with.
and yet DL is the 2nd largest carrier at DFW, DAL, HOU and AUS. They do quite well in other carrier hubs on top of their strength hubs. There are multiple routes from other carrier strength markets including to/from NYC and LAX where DL more than carries its weight
and this growth is undoubtedly related to the assignment of gates between now and when the new terminal opens in 5ish years. DL is not...
and yet DL is the 2nd largest carrier at DFW, DAL, HOU and AUS. They do quite well in other carrier hubs on top of their strength hubs. There are multiple routes from other carrier strength markets including to/from NYC and LAX where DL more than carries its weight
and this growth is undoubtedly related to the assignment of gates between now and when the new terminal opens in 5ish years. DL is not going to go from a single digit number of gates to double digit number of gates without being able to grow the market now. The question is how AUS carves up gate assignments between now and 2030ish
DL is #2 in these markets mainly on getting people to those markets. Kind of like how AA's NYC strategy has been to get people to New York while not worrying about getting New Yorkers to other places.
Last numbers I saw had F9 and NK slightly ahead of DL at DFW (NK is pulling back now), DL is #2 at DAL and HOU with 3% of the market share, and is #4 at...
DL is #2 in these markets mainly on getting people to those markets. Kind of like how AA's NYC strategy has been to get people to New York while not worrying about getting New Yorkers to other places.
Last numbers I saw had F9 and NK slightly ahead of DL at DFW (NK is pulling back now), DL is #2 at DAL and HOU with 3% of the market share, and is #4 at IAH behind NK and AA (again with NK pulling back). Regardless of the actual rank, the only major airport in TX where DL gets into double-digit market share is AUS. Anyone with <10% market share in the fastest growing state is not sitting in a position of strength.
Spin it like a top all you want, Tim, but if DL wants to be a player in Texas aviation it has to have a hub in the state and can't build AUS up fast enough. It's table stakes when trying to win in business in Texas. If you want to win in Texas you have to be in Texas.
DL still has a pretty strong amount of loyalty in N. Texas. and they carry far more revenue than NK or F9 do and DL isn't failing.
of course, DL needs a hub in Texas just as AA needs a hub on the west coast and UA needs a hub in the SE.
DL does far better in Texas than AA does on the west coast or UA does in the SE
True, and I bet that DL rues the day that their elders decided to walk away from their DFW hub. I recall flying through it and they had a nice setup there. Still, AUS is a nice leverage point for them in TX.
As for the others: UA is working it's way into a SE hub by way of JetBlue and FLL. AA, OTOH, is rudderless.
stogie,
If UA would like to take 20 flights worth of JFK slots and give up the rest of JFK, then, sure, it can have FLL and BOS but there is no planet on which UA will be allowed to acquire B6' entire NYC operation. Even as #2 in NYC, UA doesn't get to grow other than organically.
as for the DFW hub, DL was a distant #2 behind AA but then took...
stogie,
If UA would like to take 20 flights worth of JFK slots and give up the rest of JFK, then, sure, it can have FLL and BOS but there is no planet on which UA will be allowed to acquire B6' entire NYC operation. Even as #2 in NYC, UA doesn't get to grow other than organically.
as for the DFW hub, DL was a distant #2 behind AA but then took its DFW assets to vastly overtake AA in NYC so, no, I am certain that DL has absolutely no regrets about de-hubbing DFW.
and as Parker now correctly notes, WN is much easier for DL to deal w/ right now.
Yeah, everyone seems to have the one spot on the map where they have a gap. AUS makes a lot of sense for DL. WN is an easier target these days.
So are you counting JSX flights at Love? They have a lot more flights there than Delta.
Come to think of it American has more flights out of Hobby than Delta does.
you truly don't realize that DL's A320s carry twice as many passengers as AA's regional jets? on top of the A319s they also use
IF DL is building up Austin, I wonder if VS will return to Austin or perhaps AF/Kl to compete against BA's 2 daily flights. Seems to me that the lack of international European nonstop is a major hole in this build up strategy.
What are you talking about? KLM has flown nonstop to Austin for years now.
Thanks for the clarification. KLM must not have operated their flights on the weekend days that I searched for em.
of course AUS can work as a DL hub. It is a large enough city and is strategically located to serve as the hub in the south central part of the US that DL needs.
AA threw a bunch of capacity into AUS in violation of its pilot contract in order to try to block DL from growing AUS and it was AA that paid the price. As it often does, DL sat back and...
of course AUS can work as a DL hub. It is a large enough city and is strategically located to serve as the hub in the south central part of the US that DL needs.
AA threw a bunch of capacity into AUS in violation of its pilot contract in order to try to block DL from growing AUS and it was AA that paid the price. As it often does, DL sat back and watched until the embers of AA's fire cooled before acting.
WN is struggling to make its core network work; they don't have the resources to engage in a fight w/ DL. DL has a pretty strong track record of winning business from WN.
DL is the only carrier that has built 2 new hubs (BOS and SEA) over the past 10 years and has succeeded at both and its core network even while paying its employees industry leading wages.
And it is clear that DL has no fear of taking on UA by adding DEN service; this is the 3rd route in months where DL is taking on a major UA route. Kirby loves to talk about how UA and DL are in the same camp and the two will divide up the industry but DL clearly has no interest in being UA's bestie or letting regulators know that DL and UA are in any way collaborating on anything.
Of course, Delta can try to build AUS as a hub, just like any carrier can draw route maps with crayons and ambitions. But turning AUS into anything more than a niche focus city will take more than vibes, especially when: AA still dominates AUS in terms of schedule, loyalty footprint, and gates. DL doesn’t even crack a top-2 carrier share in AUS today. And news flash, United didn’t need to flail or dump capacity...
Of course, Delta can try to build AUS as a hub, just like any carrier can draw route maps with crayons and ambitions. But turning AUS into anything more than a niche focus city will take more than vibes, especially when: AA still dominates AUS in terms of schedule, loyalty footprint, and gates. DL doesn’t even crack a top-2 carrier share in AUS today. And news flash, United didn’t need to flail or dump capacity in AUS to "block Delta." Because we don't need to block a vanity project.
Let’s not pretend BOS and SEA are ironclad DL fortresses as well. SEA is a bloodbath with AS, and BOS is highly seasonal (EU) with plenty of competition from UA and B6, when it isn’t in shambles. Meanwhile, UA doesn’t need to build new hubs; we optimize the best-positioned ones in the country: ORD, DEN, IAH, EWR, SFO, and guess what? We’re doing just fine.
Guess what, that’s how competition works, Tim. Delta launching a couple DEN routes doesn’t put a dent in UA’s rock-solid fortress hub with more banks, more gates, and more connectivity than DL could hope to build there in this decade.
We’re just winning by being better.
I would think it comes down to whether Delta can get enough business/media-related traffic between AUS and its hubs, some of which (NYC/BOS to name two obvious ones) Southwest doesn't really serve/compete on. That's the one area Delta can probably do best with since leisure travel, low fares, and intra-Texas flying will likely always be Southwest's game.
Why are you attacking Tim before noon? :)
Darlin’, Delta in Austin is like a debutante at a rodeo — bless their ambition, but it’s just not gonna work.
Why? Because some internet rando says so?
Well, that's hardly a corroborative reason, now is it.
Because AUS is like RDU, which DL also spun up and has now pulled way back.
It's just too small, and surrounded by competing hubs.
Other airlines have tried (UA/AA), and failed, to make AUS something that it is not capable of being. Maybe it could be small a focus city with some point to point markets, but most of those are already served today by other carriers. DL is bringing nothing new to the table.
You draw wayyyyyyy too many anecdotal conclusions.
Delta isn't far off from its peak in Raleigh by seats, there's that. But far more to the point: Raleigh's fortunes (or alleged lack thereof) has nil to do with Austin's, so really not sure what on Earth you're trying to get at with that.
American took a bunch of high-C.A.S.M. regional jets, threw them into three dozen destinations at once, and tried to fill them with...
You draw wayyyyyyy too many anecdotal conclusions.
Delta isn't far off from its peak in Raleigh by seats, there's that. But far more to the point: Raleigh's fortunes (or alleged lack thereof) has nil to do with Austin's, so really not sure what on Earth you're trying to get at with that.
American took a bunch of high-C.A.S.M. regional jets, threw them into three dozen destinations at once, and tried to fill them with overflow traffic, low enough to not affect the yields of their adjacent super-hub. And you're wondering why they lost money? That's not exactly a reflection of Austin.
And when did United try to build up Austin as anything but a spoke?
Drawing conclusions from similar circumstances is called deductive reasoning. You clearly disagree with my conclusion, but I stand by my statement. Relatively small market, small airport, competing geographic hubs, despite a relatively healthy growing economy. Pretty close to parallel in my opinion.
Also comparing the number of seats offered is a misleading metric. DL has shifted seats back to their core hubs, much less of a focus city. Therefore I should have said destinations...
Drawing conclusions from similar circumstances is called deductive reasoning. You clearly disagree with my conclusion, but I stand by my statement. Relatively small market, small airport, competing geographic hubs, despite a relatively healthy growing economy. Pretty close to parallel in my opinion.
Also comparing the number of seats offered is a misleading metric. DL has shifted seats back to their core hubs, much less of a focus city. Therefore I should have said destinations served. Prior to Covid, DL served 29 destinations from RDU nonstop. Today it is roughly 18. That's a retrenchment in my opinion.
As for UA at AUS. That was a mistake on my part. It was SAT from 2010-2013.
"Drawing conclusions from similar circumstances is called deductive reasoning"
Not when you miss key elements of data, it isn't.
"DL has shifted seats back to their core hubs, much less of a focus city."
What does that have to do anything? By Hauenstein's own definition, "focus city" means they want to capture the plurality of the corporate spend. Has nothing to do with where their nonstops go, or how many destinations they serve.
If...
"Drawing conclusions from similar circumstances is called deductive reasoning"
Not when you miss key elements of data, it isn't.
"DL has shifted seats back to their core hubs, much less of a focus city."
What does that have to do anything? By Hauenstein's own definition, "focus city" means they want to capture the plurality of the corporate spend. Has nothing to do with where their nonstops go, or how many destinations they serve.
If they're still hitting their spend targets (which I don't know, and you sure as hell don't either) while minimizing aircraft out of rotation between hubs, then that sucks for the origin passengers, but is also cost rationalization for the airline. But again, we don't know that.
What data?
What is inconsistent about them reducing flying to 11 markets, thus it's no longer a "focus" city and retrenching the assets back to their traditional hub flying? That's a pull back.
This has nothing to do with spend targets. It's whether or not DL increasing non core nonstop flying to secondary markets from AUS is going to work. I'm postulating it will not, and I used RDU as an example.
The rest of...
What data?
What is inconsistent about them reducing flying to 11 markets, thus it's no longer a "focus" city and retrenching the assets back to their traditional hub flying? That's a pull back.
This has nothing to do with spend targets. It's whether or not DL increasing non core nonstop flying to secondary markets from AUS is going to work. I'm postulating it will not, and I used RDU as an example.
The rest of your rebuttal is laughable, because if what happens in AUS is the same as what happened in RDU (as I predict), DL will reduce this secondary flying, retrench back to their traditional hub markets. Would you deem this experiment a success?
Baby, I am flat-out overwhelmed. One lil’ comment about Delta in Austin and suddenly the whole damn internet’s clawin’ like I showed up at the church potluck in a leopard-print thong with a box of Franzia under my arm. Lord, I didn’t know tappin’ a keyboard with my acrylic nails could set off a five-alarm fire. If this is what happens over Delta, just wait ‘til I start preachin’ about politics, boxed wine, and why...
Baby, I am flat-out overwhelmed. One lil’ comment about Delta in Austin and suddenly the whole damn internet’s clawin’ like I showed up at the church potluck in a leopard-print thong with a box of Franzia under my arm. Lord, I didn’t know tappin’ a keyboard with my acrylic nails could set off a five-alarm fire. If this is what happens over Delta, just wait ‘til I start preachin’ about politics, boxed wine, and why Busch Light tastes better in the can than it ever will in a glass.
ImmortalSynn, bless your heart — comin’ for me just proves you’re the very definition of what you accused me of: an internet rando with Wi-Fi and way too much free time.
"What is inconsistent about them reducing flying to 11 markets, thus it's no longer a "focus" city and retrenching the assets back to their traditional hub flying? That's a pull back."
Because (again) you seem to think "focus city" = "small hub," and they've straight up said that that's now how they view the concept.
"This has nothing to do with spend targets."
K, now you're straying into the delusional. THEY'VE DIRECTLY SAID THAT THAT'S...
"What is inconsistent about them reducing flying to 11 markets, thus it's no longer a "focus" city and retrenching the assets back to their traditional hub flying? That's a pull back."
Because (again) you seem to think "focus city" = "small hub," and they've straight up said that that's now how they view the concept.
"This has nothing to do with spend targets."
K, now you're straying into the delusional. THEY'VE DIRECTLY SAID THAT THAT'S WHAT IT'S (in this case Raleigh) ABOUT.
"The rest of your rebuttal is laughable, because if what happens in AUS is the same as what happened in RDU (as I predict)"
You can't possibly be so oblivious as to not see the (glaring) problem with this sentence, can you?
If they can (in cooperation with AM and LATAM, since DL doesn't like using its own metal when JV partners are available) create a north-south connecting hub, it would help them tremendously with a large chunk of the country - since for many, it isn't super logical to go to Latin America via Atlanta or LAX. Of course, competing with AA and UA (and WN to an extent) but nevertheless.
Yes, that's another area where maybe Delta could have some success- one-stop connections to various Latin America destinations that Southwest doesn't and likely never will serve.
Only issue with that is the AM JV has been rejected by the DOJ and DOT and will sunset in a couple months, and there isn't much South America demand from Austin for non-Mexico, but will be something to monitor long-term
All of South America is non-Mexico! :D
"since DL doesn't like using its own metal when JV partners are available"
False. Delta's agreement with labor stipulates metal reciprocity for joint venture partners, on both a network and per-departure basis. If a j-v partner adds anything to the specified regions, Delta has to add something with its own metal (above a certain gauge) as well.