Commercial aviation is incredibly safe, and there are often long periods of time where we don’t see any fatal accidents. Unfortunately yesterday wasn’t one of those days, as an Azerbaijan Airlines jet bound for Russia diverted to Kazakhstan, where it crashed, killing dozens.
While it has only been around 36 hours since the tragedy, a lot of details are emerging, with Reuters now reporting that the jet was downed by a Russian air defense system.
Azerbaijan Airlines E190 crashes after weather diversion
This incident happened on Wednesday, December 25, 2024, and involves Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243, scheduled to fly from Baku, Azerbaijan (GYD), to Grozny, Russia (GRV). The 301-mile flight was operated by an 11-year-old Embraer E190 with the registration code 4K-AZ65, and there were 67 people aboard, including 62 passengers and five crew members.
The early part of the flight from Baku to Grozny was routine, and the plane made it to near Grozny in under an hour, which is the typical flight time. However, the jet wasn’t able to land there (I’ve heard reports that it was due to fog, but that’s not 100% confirmed), so needed to fly elsewhere.
Initially the plan was to divert to Makhachkala, Russia (MCX), around 100 miles to the east. However, that airport was closed due to drone strikes in the area, so the jet then diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan (SCO), located over 270 miles from Grozny, across the Caspian Sea. Interestingly that’s basically the same distance from Grozny as the origin of Baku.
The plane attempted a landing on runway 11 at the airport, but while on approach, it impacted the ground near the runway, broke into pieces, and caught fire. That impact happened a bit over 2hr30min after first departing Baku. In a statement, the airline describes this as an “emergency landing” a few kilometers from the airport.
The aircraft was subject to GPS jamming, so some of the data about the aircraft’s movement aren’t entirely clear, which is why the map above looks the way it does.
In video footage, the plane can be seen entering a steep descent toward Aktau and even banking to the right. That’s definitely not normally how you’d fly an approach, so clearly something was very wrong at this point.
Of the 67 people onboard, 29 people have survived, so that means there were 38 casualties. My thoughts are with those onboard and their families. To the survivors, may they make a quick and full recovery, and to those who are deceased, may they rest in peace.
Azerbaijan Airlines has a fleet of roughly 30 jets, and has a great safety record in the past couple of decades. The carrier’s last fatal crash was in 2005, when an Antonov An-140 crashed shortly after takeoff from Baku, while enroute to Aktau (the same airport as here). All 23 people onboard died.
The jet was shot down by Russia, maybe accidentally
What could have caused this horrible accident?
Just shortly after the accident, Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, claimed that the plane had collided with birds, and was diverted to Aktau due to an emergency onboard. However, that hasn’t in any way been substantiated by other authorities. That statement can’t help but make you wonder, though…
Within hours of the crash, a likely explanation started to unfold. The wreckage of the jet shows structural impacts that are indicative of shrapnel damage. There’s even video footage from inside the cabin (which I won’t post) showing this damage. For that matter, survivors on the plane report hearing something that sounded like an explosion before the pilots lost control of the aircraft, and the accident happened.
Why would anyone try to take down an Azerbaijan Airlines plane? Well, it may not have even been intentional. There was a Ukrainian drone attack in the region earlier in the day, and Russia was trying to shoot down those drones. The military in the region remained on high alert, and may have somehow mistaken this jet for a drone.
This seems to now be more or less confirmed. Preliminary reports suggest the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system. Not surprisingly, a Kremlin spokesperson has stated that “it is wrong to build hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation.” But they also had no issues suggesting a bird strike was the cause of this within minutes of it happening.
Below is a video from an experienced pilot, providing an analysis of all of this.
It’s kind of incredible how safe aviation is, and how when something does go wrong, it’s often either due to human or geopolitical factors.
Bottom line
An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E190 crashed in Kazakhstan, in what can only be described as a horrifying accident. The aircraft was supposed to operate a short flight from Baku to Grozny, but due to bad weather, had to divert. The airport it was supposed to divert to was closed due to drone activity, and then the plane diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan.
While the aircraft was on approach to Aktau, it entered a steep descent and banked, crashing into the ground. While some passengers survived, a majority lost their lives.
Russian authorities immediately started claiming that this emergency was due to a bird strike. However, investigators have revealed that all signs point toward a Russian air defense system having shot down the jet, mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone.
What do you make of this Azerbaijan Airlines crash?
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