Commercial aviation is incredibly safe, and there are often long periods of time where we don’t see any fatal accidents. Unfortunately yesterday wasn’t one of those days, as an Azerbaijan Airlines jet bound for Russia diverted to Kazakhstan, where it crashed, killing dozens.
While it has only been around 36 hours since the tragedy, a lot of details are emerging, with Reuters now reporting that the jet was downed by a Russian air defense system.
In this post:
Azerbaijan Airlines E190 crashes after weather diversion
This incident happened on Wednesday, December 25, 2024, and involves Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243, scheduled to fly from Baku, Azerbaijan (GYD), to Grozny, Russia (GRV). The 301-mile flight was operated by an 11-year-old Embraer E190 with the registration code 4K-AZ65, and there were 67 people aboard, including 62 passengers and five crew members.
The early part of the flight from Baku to Grozny was routine, and the plane made it to near Grozny in under an hour, which is the typical flight time. However, the jet wasn’t able to land there (I’ve heard reports that it was due to fog, but that’s not 100% confirmed), so needed to fly elsewhere.
Initially the plan was to divert to Makhachkala, Russia (MCX), around 100 miles to the east. However, that airport was closed due to drone strikes in the area, so the jet then diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan (SCO), located over 270 miles from Grozny, across the Caspian Sea. Interestingly that’s basically the same distance from Grozny as the origin of Baku.
The plane attempted a landing on runway 11 at the airport, but while on approach, it impacted the ground near the runway, broke into pieces, and caught fire. That impact happened a bit over 2hr30min after first departing Baku. In a statement, the airline describes this as an “emergency landing” a few kilometers from the airport.
The aircraft was subject to GPS jamming, so some of the data about the aircraft’s movement aren’t entirely clear, which is why the map above looks the way it does.
In video footage, the plane can be seen entering a steep descent toward Aktau and even banking to the right. That’s definitely not normally how you’d fly an approach, so clearly something was very wrong at this point.
Of the 67 people onboard, 29 people have survived, so that means there were 38 casualties. My thoughts are with those onboard and their families. To the survivors, may they make a quick and full recovery, and to those who are deceased, may they rest in peace.
Azerbaijan Airlines has a fleet of roughly 30 jets, and has a great safety record in the past couple of decades. The carrier’s last fatal crash was in 2005, when an Antonov An-140 crashed shortly after takeoff from Baku, while enroute to Aktau (the same airport as here). All 23 people onboard died.
The jet was shot down by Russia, maybe accidentally
What could have caused this horrible accident?
Just shortly after the accident, Russia’s aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, claimed that the plane had collided with birds, and was diverted to Aktau due to an emergency onboard. However, that hasn’t in any way been substantiated by other authorities. That statement can’t help but make you wonder, though…
Within hours of the crash, a likely explanation started to unfold. The wreckage of the jet shows structural impacts that are indicative of shrapnel damage. There’s even video footage from inside the cabin (which I won’t post) showing this damage. For that matter, survivors on the plane report hearing something that sounded like an explosion before the pilots lost control of the aircraft, and the accident happened.
Why would anyone try to take down an Azerbaijan Airlines plane? Well, it may not have even been intentional. There was a Ukrainian drone attack in the region earlier in the day, and Russia was trying to shoot down those drones. The military in the region remained on high alert, and may have somehow mistaken this jet for a drone.
This seems to now be more or less confirmed. Preliminary reports suggest the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system. Not surprisingly, a Kremlin spokesperson has stated that “it is wrong to build hypotheses before the conclusions of the investigation.” But they also had no issues suggesting a bird strike was the cause of this within minutes of it happening.
Below is a video from an experienced pilot, providing an analysis of all of this.
It’s kind of incredible how safe aviation is, and how when something does go wrong, it’s often either due to human or geopolitical factors.
Bottom line
An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E190 crashed in Kazakhstan, in what can only be described as a horrifying accident. The aircraft was supposed to operate a short flight from Baku to Grozny, but due to bad weather, had to divert. The airport it was supposed to divert to was closed due to drone activity, and then the plane diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan.
While the aircraft was on approach to Aktau, it entered a steep descent and banked, crashing into the ground. While some passengers survived, a majority lost their lives.
Russian authorities immediately started claiming that this emergency was due to a bird strike. However, investigators have revealed that all signs point toward a Russian air defense system having shot down the jet, mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone.
What do you make of this Azerbaijan Airlines crash?
US flag needs to be flying over Moscow, Beijing, Dublin. simple as that
Good that the brave pilots attempted to land in another country. Can you imagine if they crashed in Russia , or at sea. The Russians will simply cover-it up..and blame the pilots. End of.
Before I go on, let me say that I live in the States, and have no affiliation or inclination toward either Ukraine or Russia, two peoples who have been at each other's throats for centuries.
But I think Russia has been treated awfully bad for an awfully long time, and I'm glad to see that not all commenters here have fallen for the anti-Russia slanting from the elites and from the established media.
That all...
Before I go on, let me say that I live in the States, and have no affiliation or inclination toward either Ukraine or Russia, two peoples who have been at each other's throats for centuries.
But I think Russia has been treated awfully bad for an awfully long time, and I'm glad to see that not all commenters here have fallen for the anti-Russia slanting from the elites and from the established media.
That all said, Russia should probably have closed the civilian airspace over Chechnya due to their defense campaign against Ukrainian drones at the time. Kudos to the captain of the Azerbaijani flight who flew the aircraft for as long as they did. And while most pax fortunately survived, RIP to those who did not.
Sorry Russia has been treated so badly for invading a sovereign nation, kidnapping children and refusing to return them, causing millions to flee their homes and murdering thousands. If you are Russian and don’t support the government, you may accidentally fall off a balcony.
In your second paragraph you are telling is that you actually support the Russian government.
If shooting modern civilian airliners were an Olympic sport from say, oh I don't know...maybe 1983 onwards (completely random date), only one nation would be in serious contention.
The record single most casualty event to date is still in 1988.
They literally got a medal for that.
Consolidated clips ;
https://youtu.be/Vj4gwT_OZG8?si=eVOmYc4UR_LG9GMh
I said this on another travel blog the moment I read of it. Was pretty obvious to me.
Of course it was the Russians. They shoot down (or blow up) civil aircraft all the time, and think nothing of it. Just another day at the never-ending lie-factory for them. Nobody should be surprised by this - Russia isn't a country, it's just a mafia with nuclear weapons. Russia is a nation of liars, cheats, thieves, scumbags and mafia thugs, nothing more. They are the source of most of the world's troubles. It'll be...
Of course it was the Russians. They shoot down (or blow up) civil aircraft all the time, and think nothing of it. Just another day at the never-ending lie-factory for them. Nobody should be surprised by this - Russia isn't a country, it's just a mafia with nuclear weapons. Russia is a nation of liars, cheats, thieves, scumbags and mafia thugs, nothing more. They are the source of most of the world's troubles. It'll be a great day when all Russian cities are reduced to smoking craters. Can't wait for that day to come.
At least Russia didn't give anyone a medal for shooting down an airliner.
@Eskimo, nice try. They literally did that today.
It seems there is a lot of damage on the horizontal stabilizers, elevators, and the tail fin with what seems to be shrapnel damage. I remember from the JAL 123 crash investigation that for the 747, all of the hydraulic lines flew through the tail which were damaged when the bulkhead failed and sent debris throughout the plane. The shrapnel-like damage on this E190 seems to be significant enough where I assume it likely hit...
It seems there is a lot of damage on the horizontal stabilizers, elevators, and the tail fin with what seems to be shrapnel damage. I remember from the JAL 123 crash investigation that for the 747, all of the hydraulic lines flew through the tail which were damaged when the bulkhead failed and sent debris throughout the plane. The shrapnel-like damage on this E190 seems to be significant enough where I assume it likely hit some of the hydraulic lines. The question for me is to what extent the aircraft was still controllable, and how many hydraulic lines were still functional after the impact of the anti-aircraft fire. The fact that the plane made it to its destination and crashed just short of it suggests to me that the pilots may have had some control. Either that, or the plane was basically uncontrollable and yet the pilots still managed to get it to Aktau, which would be incredible piloting (which they did regardless it seems)!
I just saw a video on ABC news of the plane slightly before impact (before the clip of the plane making impact), and to me it looked like the E190 was in a phugoid motion, where it pitches up and climbs slightly, and then pitches down and descends. That is typically indicative of a plane which isn't getting much input from the cockpit controls, which to me shows the pilots had limited control over the plane. At least that's my two cents.
May the deceased rest in peace, and may those injured make a full recovery. I pray for all those involved in this tragedy and their loved ones.
Watch the video Ben provided by the pilot going through the entire scenario. They were never stable. Over the Caspian Sea they were struggling to control the aircraft constantly.
There is now a passenger perspective clip circulating from inside the cabin prior to the crash, seems calm and level;
https://news.sky.com/story/russian-air-defence-system-downed-azerbaijan-airlines-plane-in-deadly-crash-reuters-13279931
There have been quite a number of airliners shot down over the years:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_incidents
Probably Russia, but recall the US has supplied thousands of Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Giving a few to jihadis and getting them into Russia would not be surprising (cf Crocus City and several prominent assassinations).
Oh piss off.
When #upstater's reasonable reality check encounters your bias you tell him/her to 'piss off'! Mmmmm. Do you have information nobody else has to be definite about cause?
Let's not forget when our warship shot down an airliner inside their own airspace.
We even gave the captain a medal.
Yeah, but that was Iran. They deserve anything we throw at them for 1979.
You are sick. Iranian lives are nothing for you. These are all human beings.
Ha, spotted the Russian apologist vermin!
A poorly trained Russian military with shoddy systems and idiots at the helm have now downed two commercial aircraft in a few years (not to mention KAL in the 80's). Anyone who uses an airline that goes over Russian airspace is, at this point, taking huge risks. I simply will not fly any of the ME 3, or other airlines that are allowed, on routings that routinely use this airspace.
As Anthony said below,...
A poorly trained Russian military with shoddy systems and idiots at the helm have now downed two commercial aircraft in a few years (not to mention KAL in the 80's). Anyone who uses an airline that goes over Russian airspace is, at this point, taking huge risks. I simply will not fly any of the ME 3, or other airlines that are allowed, on routings that routinely use this airspace.
As Anthony said below, it's also just a matter of time before one of these aircraft flying over Russia is forced to divert with American, British or EU passport holders on board. Russia will then have a few more people they can detain for questioning and fake trials to later use for prisoner swaps.
What a disaster to themselves and to the world that country has become.
I always thought aircraft were identified on missle defence radar as “Friend or Foe”, this enabled the operators to engage or ignore targets, that’s what I read many years ago anyway but things may have changed with the use of drones etc.
Lucky, I’m a huge fan but if you choose to write about an event that took place in a war zone, you should probably try harder to avoid repeating Russian disinformation about fog, birds and whatever other nonsense they will come up with. This is your 3rd edition of this article and it’s still full of inaccuracies. This requires more precision than Etihad reducing partner availability.
On a related note, El Al just suspended...
Lucky, I’m a huge fan but if you choose to write about an event that took place in a war zone, you should probably try harder to avoid repeating Russian disinformation about fog, birds and whatever other nonsense they will come up with. This is your 3rd edition of this article and it’s still full of inaccuracies. This requires more precision than Etihad reducing partner availability.
On a related note, El Al just suspended all flights to Moscow for a week to reevaluate safety.
The real news here (in addition to Russia damaging a civilian airliner and then forcing it to fly across the sea in an apparent hope that it crashes there and no trace will remain) is that many airlines are ignoring the safety concerns and continue flying to airports that regularly have to close due to drone and/or missile attacks by Ukraine.
To avoid any ambiguity, Ukraine has every right to hit the targets it attempts to hit. It’s the airlines that are in the wrong here.
Even after the end of the Russia/Ukraine war, it will be a long time before I would be comfortable flying on a US (or other “western”) airline over Russian territory… Even a diversion to a Russian airport would be too risky
Those Embraers are built like tanks. i’m amazed they were able to fly so long after taking hits like that. RIP to the deceased
It is really safer for us flying commoner seating in the back close to smelly restroom when it comes to surviving aircraft crash. I feel sorry for those who ask for upgrade with extra legroom infront on this particular flight.
I refuse to be told it was shot down by Russia according to Ukrainian authorities just moments after the crash. It was likely Ukrainian terrorists .
Ukrainian terrorists able to shoot at a plane flying between Azerbaijan and Russia? How do you even believe this rubbish?!
It’s trigger happy Russian troops (likely the TikTok brigade being as it was Chechnya).
Maybe so but it’s only been 48 hours. I like to wait for the investigation.
@D3kingg
Those "Ukrainian terrorists" you mention are mostly backed by Russia.
Even I'm not denying that.
Or maybe if you consider the Ukrainian armed force itself to be a terrorrist, then maybe "beggar" is a more fitting term.
Russian government always denies and fabricates everything. The fell off a balcony complex.
Look at the Salisbury poisonings. Of course they denied it even though there is conclusive evidence.
The fact that whoever successfully shot the plane down actually hit their intended target is the strongest argument that it was not Russia.
Define "Ukrainian terrorists". As far as I know, there aren't any. Is that like the "Ukrainian fascist government" that your friends in Moscow claim is in Kyiv?
The risk to global aviation is significant because this is in one of the few areas where western airlines can fly from Europe to Asia.
Although this flight was flying to Russia and was below cruising altitude, the borders are very close in that region.
They appear to have been hit on approach to Grozny (Chechnya), though we need to wait for that to be confirmed. The rest of the sequence of events are also pretty hazy at this point, but will all come out. That said, Grozny is well within Russian airspace with something like 30-40 miles separating it from the Azerbaijani border (which runs along the ridges of the Caucus Mountains). This doesn't seem to be much of...
They appear to have been hit on approach to Grozny (Chechnya), though we need to wait for that to be confirmed. The rest of the sequence of events are also pretty hazy at this point, but will all come out. That said, Grozny is well within Russian airspace with something like 30-40 miles separating it from the Azerbaijani border (which runs along the ridges of the Caucus Mountains). This doesn't seem to be much of a threat beyond Russia and whichever neighboring country it's victimizing this week.
you assume that everything works as planned when using weapons esp. in a war setting. It clearly doesn't. 30-40 miles isn't much of a buffer should things go wrong.
and the risk is that this area is a chokepoint and one of the few remaining routes between Europe and Asia for western airlines as a result of Russian, Afghanistan as well as Iranian civilian overflight prohibitions that some if not many countries follow.
Without discounting that this may be true, I wouldn’t use Visegrad for a source. They’re well known as a far-right propaganda account.
It was just a matter of time. Drones sharing airspace with passenger airplanes, air defenses shooting at those drones… what can possibly go wrong? All airlines flying to Russia or through Russian airspace west of the Urals are risking their passengers’ lives. As Ukraine increases drones production and use, the risk will grow.
Of course, it was Russia. They have proven to be so inept. Before they invaded Ukraine, they were thought to be well-trained and the second-best army in the world. Their incompetence shows them to barely be the second-best army in Ukraine.
Easy. Russians thought "oh flying thing! ya lets shoot it down!! Oh wait... that's not a drone that's a plane. AH, let's just shoot it down anyway!" Another question is why was this plane going to originally land where a drone strike had occurred?? Azerbaijian airlines should have stopped flights there
Not the first commercial plane that Russia takes down . Putin never pays for all the crimes he commits typical dictator
Netanyahu and Gallant also can escape for free! And Bush 2, Clinton, Obama, Biden plus Nixon, Johnson, JFK? Not only 'dictators' commit crimes. Thanks for admitting these guys are all war criminals.
Russia is a perpetual menace.
The funny thing is that when I was watching some video sites the netizens were blaming Boeing :(
Likely another inside job / false flag attack from Zionist extremists. Sad for all the families who lost loved ones due to senseless violent attacks such as this.
Seek help
for what? Azerbaijan to invade Russia?
It would appear that there was a depressurisation due to the oxygen masks being deployed - I think we can assume that there was something that’s hit the aircraft causing structural damage to the exterior of the aircraft
Only some masks were deployed. That wouldn't happen in actual depressurisation. The reason why they're "deployed" in the pics is simply them falling out during a hit or some sudden movement. That happens quite often, e.g. you can see similar pics from severe turbulence incidents.
"However, due to fog in the area, the jet wasn’t able to land there"
Odd, because the airport was never closed and conditions were acceptable for other planes. What is your source for this statement?
On YouTube, see the blancolirio channel, by an American commercial airline pilot, which references the channel of Denys Davidov, a former Ukrainian commercial pilot who now comments daily on the Ukrainian war. There is no question that the plane was shot down.