American Airlines has just announced a huge aircraft order, entirely for narrow body and regional jets. This includes orders with three aircraft manufacturers, so let’s cover all the details (separately, American announced plans to add first class seats to some aircraft).
In this post:
Details of American Airlines’ aircraft order
American Airlines has placed aircraft orders with Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer — it’s rare you see an order with that many manufacturers announced at once. This includes a total of 260 firm orders, plus options for 193 additional aircraft.
What stands out most here is that American is clearly focused on flying larger narrow body aircraft. This is a trend we’re seeing in general among the legacy carriers, given the small incremental operating costs over smaller variants. With this extra capacity, airlines can offer more premium cabin capacity, and can also compete more aggressively with ultra low cost carriers.
Since 2014, American has taken delivery of more than 600 mainline and regional aircraft. With this order, American has 440 aircraft on order, extending its aircraft order book into the 2030s. Here’s how American CEO Robert Isom describes this order:
“Over the past decade, we have invested heavily to modernize and simplify our fleet, which is the largest and youngest among U.S. network carriers. These orders will continue to fuel our fleet with newer, more efficient aircraft so we can continue to deliver the best network and record-setting operational reliability for our customers.”
Before we discuss the details, let me mention that American isn’t being very transparent about the delivery timeline for these new jets. Below you can see the delivery outlook for American’s upcoming orders, though it’s not totally clear which of these planes are tied to the new orders, rather than existing orders.
American orders 85 more Airbus A321neos
American has just placed a firm order for an additional 85 Airbus A321neos. This is the largest and most fuel efficient version of the A320 family of aircraft. For context on how this order fits into American’s fleet, American had previously ordered 80 Airbus A321neos, 70 of which have already been delivered. With this order, American will more than double its A321neo fleet.
Keep in mind that American has 200+ Airbus A321ceos, which are the previous generation of these aircraft. Clearly this order is partly intended to replace those aircraft over time.
American orders 115 Boeing 737 MAX 10s
American has placed a firm order for 115 Boeing 737 MAX 10s. This is the largest and most fuel efficient version of the Boeing 737 family of aircraft. The catch is that this jet isn’t yet certified, and it’s anyone’s guess when it will be, given the increased scrutiny that Boeing is facing from regulators.
Prior to this announcement, American had 130 Boeing 737 MAX 8s on order, with nearly half of those already being in American’s fleet, and the remaining being outstanding orders. However, this 737 MAX 10 order includes converting 30 737 MAX 8 orders into 737 MAX 10 orders.
So while 115 737 MAX 10s have been ordered, only 85 of those represent incremental orders. American now has 100 737 MAX 8s on order. American also has a fleet of over 300 737-800s, so I imagine that over time those will be replaced by these newly ordered aircraft. This clearly reflects that American wants higher capacity narrow body jets with better unit costs.
In addition to the firm order, American also has options for an additional 75 Boeing 737 MAX 10s.
American orders 90 Embraer E175s
American has also placed an order for its regional subsidiary, American Eagle. Specifically, we’ll see 90 more Embraer E175s join the fleet. This is part of American’s goal of continuing to introduce larger regional aircraft.
American expects to retire all 50-seat regional aircraft by the end of the decade, which… isn’t actually that soon. This two class regional jets will feature high speed Wi-Fi, in-seat power, and more. The Embraer E175 is the largest aircraft that American Eagle flies, due to the scope clause that mainline pilots have.
Bottom line
American Airlines has placed a larger aircraft order for narrow body and regional jets. I don’t think there’s anything here that’s shocking, as this is a logical fleet growth plan for years to come. American is definitely focused on larger narrow body aircraft with this order, which is a trend we’ve seen with legacy airlines in recent years in general.
What do you make of American’s aircraft order?
The vast majority of A319 & A320 came from USAir and average 20 and 22 yrs old respectively. Therefore, the Airbus purchase is more of a replacement. Should the economy plateau or go soft, these would be your primary candidates for retirements. Also, NEO airframes would count towards any carbon offset goals.
The B737 fleet average is 14 yrs old excluding any MAX in the fleet. Any additional MAX is a compliment to the...
The vast majority of A319 & A320 came from USAir and average 20 and 22 yrs old respectively. Therefore, the Airbus purchase is more of a replacement. Should the economy plateau or go soft, these would be your primary candidates for retirements. Also, NEO airframes would count towards any carbon offset goals.
The B737 fleet average is 14 yrs old excluding any MAX in the fleet. Any additional MAX is a compliment to the current fleet plus AA can also count these towards its carbon goals.
Inside AA Eagle (Envoy), the E170 average is 18 yrs old and the E175 average 6 yrs. The new E175 can squeeze in a few more PAX without exceeding scope clauses. Also, if these force out any CRJ or ERJ regional jets from other airlines under the AA Eagle umbrella, I'm all for it.
The above purchase doesn't sound too ground breaking, more like culling the fleet of older airframes.
This is strictly speculation on my part, but I'm guessing there's going to be a substantial order for A220s in American's future. The Legacy US A319s and A320s are quite old, and will need a direct replacement at some point. Even the world's only PERFECT airline has mainline aircraft smaller than the 737-800/MAX8. The order may include the long rumored A220-500 which I read that American expressed some interest in. American has roughly 180 older...
This is strictly speculation on my part, but I'm guessing there's going to be a substantial order for A220s in American's future. The Legacy US A319s and A320s are quite old, and will need a direct replacement at some point. Even the world's only PERFECT airline has mainline aircraft smaller than the 737-800/MAX8. The order may include the long rumored A220-500 which I read that American expressed some interest in. American has roughly 180 older A319/320s now (although about 30 of those are relatively newer American orders made before the bankruptcy filing). But those can be replaced last. American has no need for the A220-100 as its number of allowed 76-seat RJs isn't tied to the number of 100 seat aircraft. Just speculation.
To clarify, the refurbishment of the older A319s and A320s buys time to keep new aircraft cap-ex under control. and smooth out the aircraft replacement process.
actually, the A220-300 is quite popular with multiple airlines... moreso than the A220-100 which Delta used to launch the A220 for US airlines.
Lots of airlines want a proposed A220-500 because it will have economics that will beat the 737-MAX8 and A320NEO and maybe beat the A321NEO on a per seat basis.
But Airbus has to decide to build it and needs the production capacity to dramatically increase A220 output which is pretty...
actually, the A220-300 is quite popular with multiple airlines... moreso than the A220-100 which Delta used to launch the A220 for US airlines.
Lots of airlines want a proposed A220-500 because it will have economics that will beat the 737-MAX8 and A320NEO and maybe beat the A321NEO on a per seat basis.
But Airbus has to decide to build it and needs the production capacity to dramatically increase A220 output which is pretty low right now. And Pratt and Whitney needs to resolve the Geared Turbofan issues which might take a couple years.
I wouldn't hold my breath just yet but the chances are very high that the A220-500 will come in time.
And lots of airlines will order it when it is available
American has its challenges, no doubt, but this is the sort of strategy, as an investor, that you like to see particularly when contrasted with the floundering from other US3 competitors
say what?
AAL just added orders to take it beyond 2026 which it did not have but other carriers have had.
AAL's profit margin is the lowest of the big 3.
Perhaps you can let us know what about DL or UA is floundering?
Tim,
Isn't it preferable to have the legacy carriers profitable (even if some aren't as profitable as others) instead of filing for Chapter 11 protection every few years?
that's not in doubt. the point was the comment that other big 3 airlines - which has to mean DL and UA - are struggling.
The evidence seems to be the other way around and AA is doing better than the low cost sector. Its margin was no worse or better than WN's in 2023 which is pretty hard to believe but far better than B6, NK etc
I'm hoping these E175's are the new E2 variant
They will not be. The E2 is not compliant with the regional scope clause at any US airline. They're too heavy.
Lots of extra capacity coming online. Have to wonder what happens if there's a deep recession? Side note, yes I know likely the Fed will just print ungodly amounts of money to hand out and people will make more on unemployment than they did before they were laid off.
With AA struggling, at least in comparison with the other legacy carriers, what is their plan to avoid major financial problems?
AA actually has been paying down it's debt faster than originally thought/planned. Plus UA is now the new "debt kween" with it's massive wide body orders. If an even medium sized recession hits, domestic travel will be largely fine, it's the big international travel routes that will bit hit the hardest. AA wasn't set up to succeed these last few years with TATL travel booming, but they also won't be set up for failure either. They are playing it really, really safe.
if it was anyone other than you, I would like your comment.
Hahaha that was pretty funny Tim, I’ll give you that.
The biggest part of this is that American joins Delta and United in ordering the MAX 10, signaling with Southwest the importance of keeping Boeing moving with the two unapproved versions of the MAX.
While UAL is restless, AAL and DAL appear to be committed to the MAX 10 and willing to wait for it while shuffling their other orders including with Airbus and in-service aircraft to bridge the gap until the MAX 10...
The biggest part of this is that American joins Delta and United in ordering the MAX 10, signaling with Southwest the importance of keeping Boeing moving with the two unapproved versions of the MAX.
While UAL is restless, AAL and DAL appear to be committed to the MAX 10 and willing to wait for it while shuffling their other orders including with Airbus and in-service aircraft to bridge the gap until the MAX 10 comes.
The MAX 7 and 10 are essential parts of the Boeing product line and it is good for all of the big 4 to have skin in the game to hold Boeing accountable to get those jets built and approved and for the government to not cripple the industry by unnecessarily delaying approval of the other 2 versions.
I am willing to bet AA got a screaming good deal on the MAXs. A big order like this shows confidence in the product and helps Boeing convince other potential buyers
DXR, very true. And I sincerely hope AA got a mega deal too. Boeing owes them for their loyalty.
AA probably cashed in some of their customer compensation from Boeing for delays on 787s and MAX 8s.
It saids also that A319 and A320 are going to get an interior retrofit in 2025 so no retirement yet.
You can see American’s order book prior to this order on its 10k which is only a few weeks old
Basically the A321 and B737 orders beyond 2026 or converted along with the Ejets which start delivering earlier
Interesting decision. United seems like they're not happy with what's been happening to 737 MAXs recently, while American and Delta seem confident with it... I guess it's worth noting that American is also replacing their normal size (like B738s and A320s) airliners with bigger variants (like B39Ms/B3XMs and A21Ns), which have become somewhat popular since introduction of 737 MAXs and A320neo series.
Based on what I've seen recently... it seems like the first class...
Interesting decision. United seems like they're not happy with what's been happening to 737 MAXs recently, while American and Delta seem confident with it... I guess it's worth noting that American is also replacing their normal size (like B738s and A320s) airliners with bigger variants (like B39Ms/B3XMs and A21Ns), which have become somewhat popular since introduction of 737 MAXs and A320neo series.
Based on what I've seen recently... it seems like the first class capacity on US domestic flights aren't really enough sometimes. So I guess it's a good move to order bigger narrow-body variants.
Not sure if it's "confidence," so much as not really having another realistic choice in the near-term.
I just read an article last night about many American billionaires have just sold their stocks worth a combined value of $10B. The list includes Zackerberg, Bezos, the Waltons, Jamie Dimon who sold his stocks the first time in his 18 year reign. How can AA justify the huge orders of planes and the employment contract with its pilots and upcoming FAs? Bankruptcy in the horizon? The 1% wealthiest are cashing out their stocks for the imminent economic storm next year.
Wasn't the economic storm supposed to hit this year according to you doomsayers? Well, I guess a broken clock is right twice per day.
The order speaks to growth in the domestic and LAC areas. I am surprised it didn't order any wide bodies, though.
Was the article on a news site with any reputational value? It's tax season and the more straightforward answer is that they've got taxes to pay, not that the market is going to crash...
I mean buy low, sell high is kind of the point.
They're already having a hard time getting their widebody orders delivered and with this order seems they're really just doubling down on domestic flights to/from DFW and CLT (shorter flights = more credit card announcements).
and probably replacing clapped out A319/A320 from America West, which is fine by me
Do they have any long-haul plane plans? AA international network is still by far the worst of the US Big 3 and I hope they're able to add more destinations overtime.
@ dn10 -- What's an international network? ;-) American is the world's largest domestic airline.
Yes. All widebodies will be converted to J at best. New 7777 and 787 have long been on order. On haul-haul routes that are currently seasonal (because there's not enough demand for year-round widebody service), XLRs will be deployed in off-season to make those destinations year-round. XLRs will also replace the T-Bird on transcon. All of the foregoing is old news.