Aircalin, the international airline of the South Pacific French territory of New Caledonia, has placed a fascinating aircraft order. However. I’m not sure I can fully make sense of the logic.
In this post:
Aircalin picking up two Airbus A350-900s
Aircalin has just disclosed an order for two Airbus A350-900 aircraft (meaning the order was placed at some point in the past, but Airbus didn’t reveal the customer). The airline plans to configure the planes with more than 320 seats each, spread across three cabins (business, premium economy, and economy). The delivery timeline hasn’t yet been revealed, beyond being in the “coming years.”
For context, Aircalin’s fleet consists of just four modern aircraft, including two Airbus A330-900neos and two Airbus A320neos. Aircalin’s A330-900neos have 291 seats, so the plan is for the A350-900s to offer a 15% increase in capacity.
As it’s described, this is intended to enable Aircalin to support fleet adaptation, and the carrier’s long haul network expansion. Historically, Aircalin has operated its wide body aircraft primarily between Noumea (NOU) and Japan, including Osaka (KIX) and Tokyo Narita (NRT). However, New Caledonia has seen a sharp drop in tourism due to civil unrest.
As a result, the airline has canceled its flights to Japan, and has instead launched a route to Paris (CDG) via Bangkok (BKK). The assumption is that while tourism demand is down, there’s more demand right now between the South Pacific French territory and Metropolitan France.
Here’s how Aircalin CEO Georges Selefen describes this development:
“As a continuation of our long-standing partnership with Airbus, we have selected the A350-900 to join our fleet in the coming years. These aircraft are essential for operating our recently inaugurated Nouméa-Paris via Bangkok route. They will open the doors to very long-haul flights and enable Aircalin to pursue its development strategy.”
I don’t really understand Aircalin’s aircraft order
The Airbus A350 is an absolutely phenomenal plane, don’t get me wrong. It’s a pleasure to fly, and has great economics. But I’m also not sure I understand Aircalin’s strategic goals here. The company’s CEO states that these A350s are “essential” for operating the route to Paris via Bangkok. Why, though? The individual sectors are well within range for the A330neo, so I don’t see the need here.
Now, for several years, Aircalin executives have been saying how the airline wants to launch nonstop flights between Noumea and Paris, and how it wants to acquire A350s or 787s to do that. There’s only one small issue — I don’t see how that’s going to be within range for the aircraft. The two cities are 10,366 miles apart.
For context, the world’s longest flight, between Singapore and New York, covers a distance of 9,537 miles. So this is nearly 1,000 miles longer, not to mention that Aircalin isn’t ordering a special “ULR” version, and also isn’t planning a super premium configuration, which keeps the weight of the plane down.
Something’s not adding up here. I mean, I assume Aircalin has a strategy and isn’t just blindly spending hundreds of millions of dollars without looking up the range of the aircraft. But based on everything that has been disclosed so far, I’m not following along.
Never mind that the economics of an ultra long haul flight entirely reliant on leisure demand are questionable, which is a whole different story.
Bottom line
Aircalin has placed an order for two Airbus A350-900s. This is a super cool order, which will more than double the carrier’s long haul capacity. However, it remains to be seen what exactly the airline has planned for these jets. Aircalin is launching a new route to Paris via Bangkok with an A330-900neo.
I’m not sure what incremental benefit the A350-900 provides, especially since a nonstop flight between Noumea and Paris just doesn’t seem feasible.
What do you make of Aircalin’s Airbus A350 order, and what do you think the airline has planned?
The great circle distance between Noumea (NOU) and Paris (CDG) is 9008 nautical miles.
For long distance flying you typically add about 3.5% to that to allow for the distance penalty that following published airway routes incurs.
The latest A350-900 is now certified to a higher weight than the A350-900 ULR version was at that time.
There still are a few hurdles to clear (e.g. overflying Russian airspace) but with Airbus and RR...
The great circle distance between Noumea (NOU) and Paris (CDG) is 9008 nautical miles.
For long distance flying you typically add about 3.5% to that to allow for the distance penalty that following published airway routes incurs.
The latest A350-900 is now certified to a higher weight than the A350-900 ULR version was at that time.
There still are a few hurdles to clear (e.g. overflying Russian airspace) but with Airbus and RR Trent XWB 84 performance improvement packages (PIPs) the airline might think they have a fighting chance.
As chances are far from certain, they may prefer for the time being not to talk about flying the route non-stop.
B
The reason for the unrest is a proposed change to allow some French residents to vote in New Cal elections, who were previously not allowed to because of fears they would out number / outvote the indigenous population.
I would think the last people who would be welcomed, would also be the same people who didn't want to go there, the French public.
It’s to transport the police to control the unrest situation. Loads of police fordes are being ferried up and down.
The ULR version may actually cover the whole distance between Paris and the colony (it covers up to 11.163 miles where the route would be 10.400 under optimal conditions), but I would assume that would also mean that some airspace restrictions are suddenly lifted, and I would expect that the configuration should be less dense to bring down the total weight. Either that, or they got some special UULR version with extra extra fuel tanks....
The ULR version may actually cover the whole distance between Paris and the colony (it covers up to 11.163 miles where the route would be 10.400 under optimal conditions), but I would assume that would also mean that some airspace restrictions are suddenly lifted, and I would expect that the configuration should be less dense to bring down the total weight. Either that, or they got some special UULR version with extra extra fuel tanks.
However, the 'confusing' management statement is just that: management talk. It's more interesting to look at the facts and the details of the order than to see what management reads from a PowerPoint presentation. I'm sure we'll find the details anywhere soon.
The most capable current A350-900s are more capable than the ULR was at the time it was built.
There might still be payload restrictions; even the ULRs that SQ operates cannot carry 300 passengers from NYC to SIN but the most capable 283 tonne maximum takeoff weight A350-900s can fly as far if not further than the ULRs.
Just because they didn't say they ordered the ULR version, doesn't mean they didn't. And at what point do they have to tell Airbus that's what they want? It's not like manufacture has already started. What they have is a place in line.
Might be a political ploy. New Caledonia had some major political unrest earlier this year.
The desire to add and increase use of the A359 is likely due to better performance from SE Asia to Europe and less about thinking they can fly nonstop from home to CDG.
The 339 in a heavy passenger configuration as Aircalin uses the aircraft is virtually certainly going to face payload restrictions from BKK to CDG at some times of the year because of the temps, length of the flight, and airspace restrictions.
"Historically, Aircalin has operated its wide body aircraft primarily between Noumea (NOU) and Japan, including Osaka (KIX) and Tokyo Narita (NRT)."
And Singapore.
Probably to add more capacity with 10-across like French Bee. Sure they could do 9-across with A330-900 to fit more pax, but CDG-BKK will become challenging if they need to avoid Iranian, Israeli, and Russian airspace at certain period of years.
Hopefully they add more routes. Could become a big Pacific carrier, like Fiji Airways of Air NZ. Could add more flights to Pacific Islands, Port Moresby, Aussie, or Wellington or Christchurch. Could resume Tokyo, add HK. Could fly to LA and offer low airfard between Aus and NZ to USA or Vancouver. Could fly to San Fran maths.
Those are normie routes, if Aircalin want to set themselves apart and want to enter/create new markets, they would look at flying VVI, HRE. They may even look at operating NOU-KEF seasonally (not sure it would work year-round).
Sure, Ben Holz! And a route to Nuuk in Greenland, of course!
That 10,366 miles would require overflying a bunch of closed [to French-flagged carriers] airspace... add 500-700 miles (and that's a best-case scenario) to avoid Russian, Iranian, and Ukrainian airspace. So more like 11,900-12,000 miles.
The listed range for the A350-900 is 9,600 miles.
So, yeah, the math ain't mathin'.
You'd think this airline would go the French Bee / Cebu Pacific model of high-capacity widebody aircraft given they are largely transporting people from mainland France to French territories who are either VFR, or leisure travelers, therefore not paying top dollar for premium products.