There’s no denying that the miles & points hobby has evolved a lot over the years. It has gone mainstream, and that’s both good and bad. Opportunities to earn points are better than ever before, while sweet spots and opportunities to redeem points efficiently just aren’t what they used to be.
Along those lines, here’s the latest unfortunate trend that I’m noticing. Of course it’s possible this isn’t permanent, and this is also just what I’m observing, but still…
In this post:
United’s premium saver award availability is in the gutter
Historically, United has been pretty good about making saver level Polaris business class award seats available on long haul flights. Some seats were made available in advance, though most frequently we’ve seen award space open up close to departure, when there were lots of unsold seats.
In my experience, United has pretty consistently opened saver level business class award availability anywhere from a day out to a month out, assuming there were a good number of seats still for sale.
However, something seems to have changed in recent weeks. Suddenly there’s virtually no saver Polaris business class award availability on long haul flights, even if booking last minute, and even if the cabin is wide open.
So if you’re looking to redeem the rewards currencies of programs like Air Canada Aeroplan or Avianca Lifemiles for United Polaris business class, good luck, because the space just isn’t there.
I’ve held off on writing about this until now, because sometimes airlines just have quirks that don’t last long, and some switch is “flipped” that reverses things. I try to be patient in those situations, because there’s no point in creating alarm over a minor hiccup. However, the more I dig into this, the more I think United has made a pretty major change to how it releases award availability.
My theory on how & why United award availability changed
This is purely speculation on my part, but let me explain what I think is going on. Obviously loyalty programs are huge businesses for airlines, particularly for carriers in the United States, where much of their profits are generated from the programs.
Back in the day, United released saver level award availability consistently, whether you were a member of MileagePlus, a member of a partner frequent flyer program, etc. However, it increasingly seems like United wants to keep award space for its own MileagePlus members, and not just any members.
Going back a couple of years, we saw United start to only make a subset of saver level award space available to members of partner frequent flyer programs. Then we’ve also seen some partner programs introduce dynamic pricing for United awards, and I have to imagine that’s something that was pushed by United.
So do United MileagePlus members have access to better award availability? Well, sort of. For most MileagePlus members, Polaris business class award availability is virtually non-existent. But here’s where it gets interesting…
United MileagePlus has special types of award and upgrade inventory for select members. For example, while “I” is the saver level business class award fare class, United also has “IN” inventory, which is extra saver business class award availability reserved for a subset of members. However, the airline has recently updated which members have access to this availability:
- Until early August 2025, “IN” inventory was reserved for Premier Platinum, Premier 1K, and Global Services members
- Since this change, “IN” inventory is now seemingly available to all Premier members plus all MileagePlus co-brand credit card members
So I think what’s going on here is that United is basically trying to limit Polaris business class award availability to those with a co-branded credit card and elite members, and restrict it from those booking through partner programs. For MileagePlus members, restricting award availability is now being used as a further tool to drive credit card sign-ups, and encourage earning status.
For example, take the below flight from Los Angeles (LAX) to Hong Kong (HKG), which is “IN9 I0.” In other words, there are nine saver level business class award seats if you have access to that inventory, while otherwise there are none. That’s despite the flight departing in under 24 hours, and the business class cabin seemingly being about half empty.
Suffice it to say that programs increasingly limiting award space to their own members makes it much more difficult to maximize points.
Like, I love Air Canada Aeroplan points, and am trying to plan a US to Asia via Europe award. However, actually getting across the Atlantic is proving very challenging, given that so many Star Alliance carriers have basically stopped releasing the bulk of business class award seats to partner programs. Advantageous award pricing and routing rules aren’t worth a whole lot if there’s not actually space.
I will say, even “IN” inventory doesn’t seem to be as good as “I” inventory used to be, at least for Polaris business class awards close to departure. So even if you have an eligible credit card and don’t mind burning MileagePlus miles, I’d argue it’s still tougher to actually get good value.
Bottom line
United Polaris business class award availability has been very hard to come by in recent times, including close to departure when the cabin is wide open. It’s possible this will change, but it seems like this is deliberate.
It seems that United is increasingly limiting business class award availability to MileagePlus members, and not those booking through partner programs. Not only that, but it seems that most saver business class awards are being made available as “IN” inventory rather than “I” inventory, limiting it to those with a co-branded credit card or elite status.
As much as I don’t like this, I can’t say I’m surprised to see the airline head in this direction. Maximizing miles & points gets more complicated by the day…
Anyone else noticing these changes to United award availability?
I'm UA 1M Gold wanting a Saver booking for UA98 in 36 hours (LAX/MEL). Polaris cabin has 23 vacant seats and no Saver availability. All capacity remains waitlisted.
Up to a year or so ago one could also points book intraEurope flights or intraCanada on UA's partners. Now UA will not even price/sell such tickets.
After 40 years of being with UA/M+ I will dump the balance of my account on a non-saver ticket and never return.
After 2 months of searching (June-July) I booked 3 polaris seats ATH - EWR (October) with star alliance miles but I could hardly find 1 seat for the return. So in August I booked 3 polaris seats for Venice where we will stay for 2 days and return to Athens.
100% True.. I am very dissapointed.. Have been trying to book a reward flight from anywhere in NA to Australia but nothing reasonable seems to be available. I hate Air Canada's dynamic pricing.. I was hoping to grab last minute United BUsiness Class flights but you are right, somehting has changed and they are no longer available !! Sad...
It’s NOT just a recent development at UNITED, they have cut almost ALL award availability from non close tie partners (that REALLY make it worth flying on UA flights!) like TK US domestic at lowest possible price if using TK Smiles Miles, no matter where to! Europe, using TK Miles on almost any UA flight, almost impossible since End of October 2024! Same with LH flights trying to use TK Miles, good luck! Seems like...
It’s NOT just a recent development at UNITED, they have cut almost ALL award availability from non close tie partners (that REALLY make it worth flying on UA flights!) like TK US domestic at lowest possible price if using TK Smiles Miles, no matter where to! Europe, using TK Miles on almost any UA flight, almost impossible since End of October 2024! Same with LH flights trying to use TK Miles, good luck! Seems like LH and UA select very careful with what partners in the Star Alliance they want to share availability on Awards (and not only saver awards!) or they do limit partners from any availability at all.
This game is very special, i call it game, because usually UA is giving away saver awards on LH flights across the Atlantic as well as within Europe even if LH selling inventory is ONLY available in Booking classes Y, H, M (very expensive fares!). That’s why i call this a Game coming from United and preferring some select Star partners while others are banned or mostly ignored! Lufthansa Group is playing a similar game, since years!
I guess nobody ever realized, LH and TK are NOT best friends with each other, not only is TK by far better on inflight service than LH on ANY route in the same cabin, but also LH is trying to ban TK in many ways in the same way as UA now bans partners who always had similar or same award availability as their own program! But way worse is, that Star Alliance is the wildest program between all the partners, when it comes to be better or ignore any partner that might be better than your own program or product!
Lufthansa in Munich (Terminal 2!, almost entirely STAR Airlines only there!) except Turkish Airlines! LH even went as far as cancelling all Istanbul flights from their Hub in Munich, simply because they could NOT complete with their STAR partner TK on that route in terms of Service, Frequencies and also award availability to come back to the Miles and points theme. TK, compared to non STAR airlines like EY (who is far from being a STAR airline, but is at home at Terminal 2 in Munich, while TK does not get access to the LH Terminal 2 at the airport. Since years! Just another signal, woh much they all like each other in the same Alliance.
I think, SQ started it all, this “foul” game within the STAR partners, by not giving out award availability to partners a couple of years back! LX, same game. First, only for their own highest frequent travelers. I think, soon we all need to play the miles and points game in a different league and beat all the airlines and hotel programs at their own game! Sad, but i think a true thing. I agree with Benjamin, AC program is in most parts of the miles burning game leading and valuable, even if other STAR partners programs don’t show availability, AC finds strange routings and combines awards for good rates, to offer award seats on partners! still does today.
I was going to fly LAx to LHR on united. But with the BA sale, I booked a business class flight on BA for the United money plus miles rate. Plus saved my United miles to let them accrue more. I’m loyal United but couldn’t pass this up The miles plus money is decent but doesn’t compare when there is a sale.
a) there is plenty of IN space for premier members
b) Its reciprocal - I challenge you to find any Air Canada long haul award space using partner miles (apart from some scattered close in seats)
I might suggest a different title for this article: The Fantastic Increase Of United Polaris Award Availability For Co-Branded Card Holders And Status Members!
For me as a no status co-branded card holder this change has been a big win. Routes I was interested in before the change had only close-in or last minute availability. Now I have found significant availability further out that allows me create firm plans without gambling on last minute availability....
I might suggest a different title for this article: The Fantastic Increase Of United Polaris Award Availability For Co-Branded Card Holders And Status Members!
For me as a no status co-branded card holder this change has been a big win. Routes I was interested in before the change had only close-in or last minute availability. Now I have found significant availability further out that allows me create firm plans without gambling on last minute availability. It has been a win for United in my case, since to take advantage of the increased "IN" awward space for a family trip I ended up purchasing a large amount of United miles and transferring some Chase points.
It makes one wonder what benefit the rest of *A gets from having United in the alliance if they're cutting everyone else out of premium award space...
Does the no fee United Gateway co-brand card grant access to the additional saver award space? If so, it may make sense to open that card just for that?
Used to. No longer does
I’ve had good luck finding business or first class availability with Avios and their carriers. That Amex 30% bonus transfer they had not too long ago was a gold mine for me. Paid for itself.
One could also speak of Polaris' overall decline as a product. One by one, the product has been whittled back for various reasons. Recall the special champagne flutes and welcome chocolates? What about the custom ice cream bowls? I'm sure you can mention a few things of your own noting. But it's fitting that availability and quality both seem to be 'marching in step', downwards! This is why America will never have top quality airlines...
One could also speak of Polaris' overall decline as a product. One by one, the product has been whittled back for various reasons. Recall the special champagne flutes and welcome chocolates? What about the custom ice cream bowls? I'm sure you can mention a few things of your own noting. But it's fitting that availability and quality both seem to be 'marching in step', downwards! This is why America will never have top quality airlines like Asia and the Middle East. They don't stick with anything good for long enough to establish it.
A year ago, I had to shell out 200,000 UA miles (yes, 200,000) for a one way Polaris business class from EWR to HND. Why bother to collect UA or any other miles?
That's because you didn't find award availability, and instead just pay the MSRP price.
I've got the same flight for 88K last year (now is probably 110K)
That’s rough, since UA flies a 30-year old 772 on that route. Just brutal.
I may be naive, but don't businesses that sell their products tend to make more money than those that give them away?
Hardly giving them away when they are selling the miles to us and the banks
We are paying them and simply a loyal member in their ponzi scheme
IMO just do business with other carriers till their hungry enough to be fair
"Giving away" is a relative term. Airlines collectively sell billions of miles to their credit card partners (IIRC Delta generated pandemic-era financing by pre-selling a ton of miles, and if the flow from Amex to Delta is any indication I think Delta miileage sales to Amex are potentially sitting somewhere in the 300-500 billion miles per year range), so it's not like they're not booking revenue on these tickets, and IIRC the major FFPs are...
"Giving away" is a relative term. Airlines collectively sell billions of miles to their credit card partners (IIRC Delta generated pandemic-era financing by pre-selling a ton of miles, and if the flow from Amex to Delta is any indication I think Delta miileage sales to Amex are potentially sitting somewhere in the 300-500 billion miles per year range), so it's not like they're not booking revenue on these tickets, and IIRC the major FFPs are worth more than the airlines themselves. I've occasionally joked that Delta is a division of American Express for this reason.
The bottom line is that FFP tickets aren't non-revenue items for the airline. The miles sit on someone's books as a liability. Depending on how you structure it, either the airline books them as (essentially) a prepaid service and then discharges the liability when you use the miles, or the liability is held on the FFP's books and then the airline just records it as revenue when you use the miles and "bills" the FFP.
I am still wating you to apologize to encourage to buy LifeMiles and then end up on nothing to be redeemed
Ben is never encouraging anyone to buy miles, it is actually quite opposite.
I'm pretty sure he explicitly advises to only buy LifeMiles in situations where you already have an award you want to redeem in mind, and where you have checked space is available. He also warns pretty clearly about risks like phantom availability in the LifeMiles articles I've read.
JFK and BOS to FRA on Condor is usually an easy find using Atmos. 45-55k depending if you add a connection, oddly some direct flights are 55k, however adding a leg sometimes drops it to 45k.
I see better availability with ATMOS and AA booking partners than I do chasing SA, both TPAC and TALT.
Other airlines, like Signapore, and now Lufthansa, block access to long haul premium cabin, and Luthansa and Swiss to F inventory, etc. etc. So UA should as well. Yes better inventory for CC holder and Elites, but I think high Elites get better (1K and GS). Ben, you don't have either of those, and I don't think you have any UA status, so you really can't check.
Honestly, this is the counter move to the bank-issued currency. If the bank can just buy miles from Lifemiles or Aeroplan, it can get its customers access to enough award space. Compared to transferable currency cards, airline cards are pretty trash for spending. Why get 1x on a United card for your groceries when you can get 3x C1 miles and transfer to Aeroplan? If loyalty perks had real value, it would be less of...
Honestly, this is the counter move to the bank-issued currency. If the bank can just buy miles from Lifemiles or Aeroplan, it can get its customers access to enough award space. Compared to transferable currency cards, airline cards are pretty trash for spending. Why get 1x on a United card for your groceries when you can get 3x C1 miles and transfer to Aeroplan? If loyalty perks had real value, it would be less of an issue. But United has to keep people on the co-branded hamster wheel, and this isn't a bad option. There is a good subsection of people that only want to fly their preferred US carrier, and this will keep them loyal. I still think there's more value in the international carriers, and the incentives for LH, LO, or TP opening space are different. Honestly, if they can keep a bunch of people earning Skymiles, all the better for the rest of us.
If the loyalty is only going one way, then stop being loyal. It's like being in a relationship with a partner who's constantly changing the agreed boundaries to suit them, and just expects you to stay along for the ride. You're letting yourself be treated like a chump.
I'm surprised another reader didn't criticize you for not offering actionable advice.
I think Pete's advice is quite actionable.
Agreed. I said something similar and was criticized.
Good timing. Just last week I redeemed 250k Aeroplan points I had sitting in my account for a sub-optimal redemption on Air Canada metal (1 business and 2 PE seats, LIS-YUL-SFO) for next summer as I've also observed the opportunities for star alliance partner awards -- at least in premium cabins to/from North America -- seem to have dried up. Too bad, but I guess that's the game.
As a UA Infinite cardmember, I approve this change.
I was able to grab an "IN" fare award for November for 85k miles, Polaris SFO-NRT, business NRT-GUM-ROR. Availability for EWR,SFO,ORD-NRT-GUM-ROR in IN seems fairly decent about 2 weeks out. Never for SFO,LAX-HNL-GUM-ROR - only mixed awards with HNL-GUM in business, the rest in economy. Routing through NRT means dealing with US immigration in GUM. Flying through NRT on the way back is even more fun - you have to go through US immigration twice(!)...
I was able to grab an "IN" fare award for November for 85k miles, Polaris SFO-NRT, business NRT-GUM-ROR. Availability for EWR,SFO,ORD-NRT-GUM-ROR in IN seems fairly decent about 2 weeks out. Never for SFO,LAX-HNL-GUM-ROR - only mixed awards with HNL-GUM in business, the rest in economy. Routing through NRT means dealing with US immigration in GUM. Flying through NRT on the way back is even more fun - you have to go through US immigration twice(!) (GUM and SFO) on the same flight, operated entirely by United.
I’m just jealous you’re heading to ROR! I’ve only been once when I lived in Asia and did a charter trip there. Best diving I’ve ever done!
How do I not know all these UA fare classes and don't even know how to find them. A little help here, please...
search for "united expert mode" there are many blog posts out there to show you how to turn it on & use it
UA has said for years that it wants to be seen just like DL so this should come as no surprise.
Airlines that can genuinely sell their seats for money should not be given them away for cheap esp. to other airline award programs.
as for LAX-HKG, that is simply DL's making it clear that it will do what it needs to do; unlike UA, DL doesn't pick on the little carriers and also...
UA has said for years that it wants to be seen just like DL so this should come as no surprise.
Airlines that can genuinely sell their seats for money should not be given them away for cheap esp. to other airline award programs.
as for LAX-HKG, that is simply DL's making it clear that it will do what it needs to do; unlike UA, DL doesn't pick on the little carriers and also has no interest in being seen as one of two carriers that are interested in colluding to squash competitors and squashing consumer choice.
Good for UA. DL is coming for SIN next.
Delta doesn't love you as much as you love Delta
So, the problem with that analysis - at least as I see it - is that there's still money changing hands between the programs. It might be under archaic pricing agreements, but when you book space on Airline A using Airline B's miles, Airline B does pay Airline A for the space. The reason partner award redemption rates have been so "sticky" is that both sides have to agree to new pricing, and that's not...
So, the problem with that analysis - at least as I see it - is that there's still money changing hands between the programs. It might be under archaic pricing agreements, but when you book space on Airline A using Airline B's miles, Airline B does pay Airline A for the space. The reason partner award redemption rates have been so "sticky" is that both sides have to agree to new pricing, and that's not always easy (as one or both sides probably want to leverage something else out of the deal in exchange for allowing the changes - it might be reciprocal pricing, it might be some guarantee on space availability, or it might be pushing for more cash than the other airline wants to offer for those seats).
By comparison, an airline can generally "do whatever" internally, at least presuming that the internal struggle among business units doesn't get into a deadlock. This /can/ happen - "battling business units" are a real scourge. I think part of the reason it took Amtrak /years/ to come up with points-and-cash redemptions after announcing it had to do with a fight between AGR and Amtrak, and the initial surge pricing there for peak days was something that the non-AGR revenue management folks demanded of AGR to allow AGR to no longer deal with blackout dates.
Back to UA - this could turn into a bit of a mess in the long run, since if (for example) United customers can book premium space on Air Canada but the reverse isn't true, that creates something of an imbalance in those arrangements. That ultimately advantages MP over Aeroplan.
UA needs to grow its own loyalty program in the US and its credit card program vs. receive fees from other airlines.
UA's move is rational and supports its goals.
Definitely agree with this. I did just have success getting two business class seats from LHR-ORD on Nov 4th using ANA miles. I was pretty surprised to see that, but definitely a happy camper as it was turning out to be a complicated itinerary. Thanks for sharing! I’m curious how it will evolve.
You are complaining about getting United Polaris space, using Aeroplan. How about if you use United Mileage Points ? Why shouldn't United let their own loyal customers get access, not someone who has "bought" Aeroplan points (endless articles on how to do this). Just saying...
Airlines should definitely prioritize their own members first, but one of the most tangible benefits of an alliance is partner award redemption.
Once you can no longer redeem on partners, I feel like Star/Skyteam/One world value proposition will be pretty low aside from elite members getting a priority bag tag.
I recognize that "available seat maps" aren't 100% indicative of how fully a flight is, but wow how empty is that particular flight tomorrow! By my calculations, it's < 25% full.
@ jak -- Yeah, the load factors on those LAX-HKG flights don't look great, generally (that's not intended to be some bat signal for Tim, btw)...
CX does very good on these with LFs in the 90s, while also commanding a fare premium. Asian carriers just outperform.
UA is somewhere around the 60% mark with less frequencies and lower yields. But we might see the BKK or SGN tags improve it.
CASM!
I’m the wrong Tim, I know. ;-)
just remember that DL has launched LAX-AKL and BNE and UA has left both, am I right?
DL would love to make it a trifecta - or better.
The notion that UA is some sort of powerhouse that is impervious to competition - esp. when it comes from more profitable companies - is a myth.
The chances are very high that UA will drop at least one LAX-HKG ; the tags they put behind their...
just remember that DL has launched LAX-AKL and BNE and UA has left both, am I right?
DL would love to make it a trifecta - or better.
The notion that UA is some sort of powerhouse that is impervious to competition - esp. when it comes from more profitable companies - is a myth.
The chances are very high that UA will drop at least one LAX-HKG ; the tags they put behind their two HKG flights were to try to prop up the loads.
DL is going to siphon off as much traffic as it can off of LAX-HKG.
There has been endless talk about how much of a drag SEA-TPE has been and yet it will have gone 2 years since its launch before LAX-HKG is launched. DL clearly has the financial ability to develop markets that it needs to be in, even across the Pacific.
and let's also not doubt this is a not-so-subtle hint that DL will start LAX-SIN whether UA is in the market or not. DL seems to want to use an A350-1000 which will, according to rumors, seat about 315 passengers which is a pretty conversative seat count for that aircraft but still 60 seats more than SQ's 359s and 90 seats more than the high J 789s that UA would have to use.
DL is rebuilding its Pacific presence, and according to internet lore, it is using all the excess profits it gets from its ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC hubs to subsidize its 4 coastal hubs and clearly its TPAC routes; nevermind that DL says that JFK-LAX is its most profitable route.
AKL and BNE are a weird flex to bring up for Delta, Tim.
Delta launched AKL year-round then VERY quickly backed off.
BNE is just a subsidy from BNE and it seems rather doubtful Delta has the POS strength in Australia or LA to keep it up post subsidies.
IOW, ignore the facts you don't like.
DL has started 2 longhaul flights from LAX that directly competed with UA and UA blinked.
DL is getting ready to do the same thing on LAX-HKG, a route that has far lower load factors than DL had on SEA-TPE and DL has no tags behind TPE as UA does behind HKG.
DL stated multiple times that it wanted LAX and SEA as TPAC west coast...
IOW, ignore the facts you don't like.
DL has started 2 longhaul flights from LAX that directly competed with UA and UA blinked.
DL is getting ready to do the same thing on LAX-HKG, a route that has far lower load factors than DL had on SEA-TPE and DL has no tags behind TPE as UA does behind HKG.
DL stated multiple times that it wanted LAX and SEA as TPAC west coast gateways. UA has had SFO as the uncontested best US carrier TPAC hub but has tried to bulk up LAX.
The "ownership" of LAX TPAC leadership is far from settled, Max.
and specific to this discussion, UA is moving its loyalty program more and more in the direction of DL's which has never been generous w/ premium cabin international award pricing because it wants to sell them for cash before giving them away.
UA has said for years that it thinks of itself as being in the same camp as DL; its change to longhaul award availability is not unexpected. It is what they had to do to increase revenues on international routes which is part of the reason DL's profits per ASM on the Atlantic and Pacific have been higher than UA for quite some time.
UA shows seat map for already departed flights for today and yesterday (and two days ago) in which case seat map is accurate. Even when a ton of business seats are empty, UA stopped releasing it to partners (and non-elite/credit card holders).
UA knows it cannot build its credit card program w/o increasing the value of having THEIR card.
The fact is that premium cabin TATL demand (and to a lesser extent TPAC) departing the US is through the roof currently. There is not much to challenge pricing at this at the moment, with JVs and partnerships the airlines have in place. Based out of SFO, I know plenty of travelers who will pay either themselves or have a business account that pays for business class on a long flight. Even when booked in...
The fact is that premium cabin TATL demand (and to a lesser extent TPAC) departing the US is through the roof currently. There is not much to challenge pricing at this at the moment, with JVs and partnerships the airlines have in place. Based out of SFO, I know plenty of travelers who will pay either themselves or have a business account that pays for business class on a long flight. Even when booked in advance, off-season, it's not uncommon to see $5,000+ rt J fares to Europe. And where UA has a non-stop, they are always charging a premium over the other carriers. The airlines want to cash in on this for as long as they can. It's not only United Mileage Plus. Good luck finding premium cabin award space with LH Miles and More even on their own metal. Until demand starts faltering, the only way I've seen award prices drop is with creative routings and origins - back to the old tricks of positioning flights and overnight layovers.
Have you seen anything similar with AA? Lately when I search for AA awards, I’m seeing 300-400k ONE WAY for business class. I don’t recall ever seeing prices like that in the past, this is feeling very much like Delta territory.
@ Scott -- American's non-saver level award pricing is high, and not a great deal. However, I'd say that American has by far the best premium cabin award availability and pricing for its own flights of any of the "big three" carriers.
I used to see 65-80K miles for biz when they open the schedule. I got "lucky" and got LHR to ORD next July for 120K miles. I took that flight a few weeks ago and it was only 82K. Those kind of deals are now few and far between. It's very disheartening, but not a surprise when they hand miles out like candy for CC sign ups.
I put this in response to another comment in the AA review, but it is a devaluation bloodbath out there. Other than February 2026 where there is 65k availability, there is one day in July 26 and another day in August 26 at 65k JFK-LHR on AA metal. Some scattered 70k through the end of 2025 but most saver fares are starting at 100k and good luck finding a Thu/Fri/Sat date. Similar on the LHR-JFK...
I put this in response to another comment in the AA review, but it is a devaluation bloodbath out there. Other than February 2026 where there is 65k availability, there is one day in July 26 and another day in August 26 at 65k JFK-LHR on AA metal. Some scattered 70k through the end of 2025 but most saver fares are starting at 100k and good luck finding a Thu/Fri/Sat date. Similar on the LHR-JFK except good luck finding a Sat/Sun/Mon date.
Yes you can still get BA at 57.5 and best opportunities to avoid surcharges there are if you connect through LHR to another city.
I think this is markedly worse from a year ago and clearly reflects the influx of TY points, in my opinion. It's even worse than two months ago - saw the writing on the wall a few months ago and speculatively booked 4 J tickets to London in April 2026 at 65k each, which is clearly the new floor for AA metal (a year ago you could still get 57.5 on AA metal as well).
But... are there still deals to be had? More than with DL and UA, I believe. And the inventory is there... so maybe the TY point influx will not be as bad as AA fears and there will be some close-in booking opportunities... who knows.
" let me explain what I think is going on. . . restricting award availability is now being used as a further tool to drive credit card sign-ups, and encourage earning status"
Okay, but for this theory to hold water, wouldn't United have to be telling people that signing up for a credit card or earning status will get them J award opportunities?
@ LarryInNYC -- This was only implemented recently, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's marketed more in the future. However, it is already advertised. For example, if you pull up a United credit card application, you'll see the following:
"As a cardmember, you have access to special pricing on award travel redemption for United-operated flights, when available."
That message could be referring to a thing that's been a while though, in the sense there were slight discounts (like 10k miles off) for some routes and some additional availability for being a Chase cardmember.
To categorically basically block Polaris awards for non-members / non-elites would be new.
I wonder if AI contributed to this topic at hand.
The Star Alliance airline or the large language model?
Unlikely to be the star alliance airline, it's hard to get them to do anything most of the time!
Is this recent (as in last 2 months or so?), because up until about May this year, United was pretty consistently releasing Polaris award seats for close in dates (0-21 days out) across the Atlantic.
@ Trey -- Yeah, this has all started within the past two months.
Two speculations.
1) MileagePlus members are complaining about a lack of reward seats available. So UA decided to prioritize their own members first.
2) For many MileagePlus members, we are sitting on hundreds of PlusPoints. They are effectively unusable. Again, maybe this is a way to get a higher success rate to burn PlusPoints for intercontinental upgrades?
PlusPoints require PZ (for Platinum and 1K) or PN (for Global Services) space. IN is separate inventory, but sometimes correlated like in the photo (PN9 PZ9 IN9 I0).
I don't think this is what you are talking about, but I still see good United point redemptions across the Atlantic with Swiss, Luftansa and even Ethiopian. Usually 80-88 united miles for business class. That is generally how I use mine.
@ Andrew -- There are no doubt still some good uses of MileagePlus miles, but even availability on carriers like Lufthansa and SWISS isn't what it once was.
Why does Aeroplan have access to some all-LH or all-Swiss itineraries those flights aren't bookable through MP.
Knowing that AA is quite the copycat, does this impact your thinking on Atmos as a vehicle for AA rewards? Depends on what kind of AA flights you are booking, of course, I don't think regional jet availability is drying up tomorrow...
Atmos as a vehicle for AA rewards is actually so good. Earning their loyalty miles or whatever it's called for cheap domestic redemptions would be amazing
@ Peter -- It's a great question. It's definitely something I think about, but it's not really impacting my decision making, at least yet. In a similar light, if American AAdvantage were horribly devalued for premium cabin redemptions, I'd also be rethinking my strategy with AAdvantage. At that point I'd probably just become a full-on "free agent."
Fair enough, and obviously you are playing the game at a different level than most!
I do wonder if United is possibly preserving some of its own metal for when the B6 partnership goes live so it can offer some of its flights to B6 trueblue program before other partners like Aeroplan?
As for AS relationship with AA, still some significant alignment there, I think, which hopefully preserves some of the cross-availability.
The good...
Fair enough, and obviously you are playing the game at a different level than most!
I do wonder if United is possibly preserving some of its own metal for when the B6 partnership goes live so it can offer some of its flights to B6 trueblue program before other partners like Aeroplan?
As for AS relationship with AA, still some significant alignment there, I think, which hopefully preserves some of the cross-availability.
The good news with AA is the partner redemptions are still there, at least for now. The AA metal popular route redemptions are certainly not at DL levels and are probably still better than UA, but perhaps not by much these days.
It's def intriguing. I booked two flights next year, and although they are short flights (phx to las), they were 4.5K atmos each for economy. Then I chatted with AA and had them put my AAdvantage number in there so I could pick my MC+ seats. I did get a flight from OKC to LGA for 7500 atmos as well. Great domestic redemption if you ask me.
AA definitely has the ability to do this, they just don’t make “Saver” inventory available (thus no inventory for partner programs), but they can still dynamically price awards on their own metal at relatively attractive redemption rates
Scott Kirby and Ed Bastian are the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of major US air carriers. Robert Isom is the Dormouse.
US air carriers are like the decadent empire they serve - making improvements in the front of the plane, and making life punishing for everybody else in the back.
Money talks, bro.
Wonder how award search companies such as seats.aero and Roame could use this IN search for UA credit cardholders. It’s quite tiring to do manual search and find IN spaces
i was just thinking this. like if Seats dot Aero is searching as a general member with no status or credit card, it might be unable to see saver awards I would be able to if I logged in as myself (UA Platinum with a Quest card).
Websites like Roame and Seats.Aero are a good part of the reason that airlines are now further restricting award access or jacking up the the miles required to fly in a premium cabin. That and the massive amount of copycats of a certain points and miles website on social media promoting "free travel".
No one likes it but accept it for what it is and adjust your game accordingly. Spend your time and energy on what works. Be happy.
That's so beautiful, and added much actionable advice to the conversation.
And practical advice. Suddenly, nobody is upset that the value of what they've been promised is no more, because they can now, thanks to your coaching, accept it and adjust their games accordingly. And be happy.
Bless your heart.
Promised? Can you point to any airline or hotel program (other than a defined value program like Accor) that has PROMISED there would be X amount of award inventory or value per point?
BA guarantees award availability on every flight. https://onemileatatime.com/insights/british-airways-award-seat-guarantee/
This is no different than Marriott's abandonment of its no black out dates feature. This is no different from the hotel award inventory control. This is no different from AA not opening transcon F to partners. It is industry wide.
If you want actionable advice: publicly disclosed practices either get swamped to inaccessibility or shut down.
Maybe Kirby would be better served by redirecting his mental energy to UA's own issues instead of dire predictions of competitors' demise ...
I noticed this too, so glad to see you writing about this with your theory. This has happened enough times before that, hopefully, it gets reversed when they realise they're missing the incremental revenue. On the other hand, Cathay haven't reversed their changes despite not selling out business class.
I'm not sure when but in the last year United apparently forced the major transferrable programs to start charging the same rate that MP charges for award tickets. Both Lifemiles and Aeroplan started charging the same rate for United-only metal that was equal to the United price. Previous to that, United was limiting its release of seats to both programs, especially transpac. It would be sad if even after they got their partners to charge...
I'm not sure when but in the last year United apparently forced the major transferrable programs to start charging the same rate that MP charges for award tickets. Both Lifemiles and Aeroplan started charging the same rate for United-only metal that was equal to the United price. Previous to that, United was limiting its release of seats to both programs, especially transpac. It would be sad if even after they got their partners to charge MP rates they pulled the rug out from under them to not release any seats to them also.