Yesterday I had a (non-miles & points) friend ask me a question that I’ve received many times over the years, with minor variations. “I’m flying in a few days and my flight looks really empty, are they just going to cancel it?” It’s a fair question, so let me address that here.
In this post:
Airlines don’t usually cancel flights close to departure
It’s extremely rare for airlines to cancel flights close to departure simply because they’re not full. It might seem counterintuitive to operate a flight that’s likely to be unprofitable, but it gets at the complexity of airline operations.
Sure, maybe the flight you’re on isn’t full, but planes are scheduled to operate a sequence of flights, so it’s not practical to just take a plane out of service in that way. For that matter, crews have schedules that they have to work as well, so not having a crew in the right place can have a domino effect. So the reality is that canceling a flight because it isn’t full would be a lot more trouble than it’s worth.
Another thing I’d add is that I think people often make assumptions about flights not being full. Typically, people assume a flight isn’t full if they look at the seat map and don’t see a lot of seats occupied. However, keep in mind that many airlines charge to assign seats in advance, or many passengers (particularly in some parts of the globe) aren’t necessarily in the habit of booking seats in advance. Even if you’re looking at fare classes, just because a flights is “nines” across the board doesn’t mean it’s wide open.
As you can see, above I say that it’s rare for airlines to cancel flights because they aren’t full, but I don’t want to say it never happens.
For example, if an airport starts dealing with flow control due to weather or ATC, or if planes need to be taken out of service, there’s obviously a hierarchy as to which flights have priority to depart. Similarly, if you’re flying a tiny airline startup, they may very well cancel flights because they aren’t full. But that’s the exception rather than the norm.
Airline schedules far in advance are really just placeholders
As you can see in the title of this post, I answered the question of whether airlines cancel empty flights with “yes and no.” Above I explained the “no” part, but there is also a “yes.” Far in advance, airline schedules are really just placeholders.
Like, if you’re booking a flight 11 months in advance, it’s far from a sure bet that the flight will operate with that exact schedule. Quite to the contrary, it’s near certain that there will be some sort of a schedule change before departure, and that could be a change of a few minutes, a few hours, or a cancelation altogether.
That’s because airlines are constantly optimizing their schedules based on demand, aircraft availability, macroeconomic conditions, etc.
How close to departure should you assume that a schedule is pretty firm? I’d say that it’s most common for airlines to make schedule changes three or more months in advance. However, it’s not unheard of to see schedule changes between one and three months of departure. Within a month, I’d say it’s rare to see a significant schedule change. Again, that’s not to say it’ll never happen, though.
Bottom line
There’s a common misconception that airlines will cancel flights if they appear to be empty close to departure. That’s exceedingly uncommon, due to the fact that it’s not easy to just take planes out of service, since the planes and crews have to be positioned elsewhere for another flight. Also keep in mind that just because a seat map is empty, doesn’t mean the flight will end up going out empty.
All that being said, airlines do constantly update their schedules far in advance, especially a few months out, and more.
What’s your take on airlines canceling flights that aren’t full?
Agree with a previous poster. There are routes were cancellations are common. E.g., during peak times, LH flies FRA-BER every 30 min. They will often cancel a rotation at the last minute if demand is very low (presumably, in both directions).
This need not be an issue crew and equipment positioning wise. Sometimes, this might actually improve conformity with the plan for subsequent flights (if there would have been substantial delay). Other times, plane and...
Agree with a previous poster. There are routes were cancellations are common. E.g., during peak times, LH flies FRA-BER every 30 min. They will often cancel a rotation at the last minute if demand is very low (presumably, in both directions).
This need not be an issue crew and equipment positioning wise. Sometimes, this might actually improve conformity with the plan for subsequent flights (if there would have been substantial delay). Other times, plane and all crew would have done the full rotation without any personnel change anyway which means that despite the cancellation, they all end up in the right place.
Qantas Sydney-Melbourne this is very common. They do half an hour or quarter hour frequencies and shuffle based on load etc.
How about Global Airlines? What are the chances their ‘inaugural’ flights get cancelled due to low numbers of revenue pax?
Having worked in Revenue Management, Schedule Planning, and Route Planning at one of the Big 4 US carriers, a flight typically doesn't get cancelled because of loads per se. An example might be a 1PM flight out from a hub to a spoke might be terrible with low fares and few passengers, but it positions the plane for a 3PM flight back to the hub which is packed with higher fares connecting to international flights...
Having worked in Revenue Management, Schedule Planning, and Route Planning at one of the Big 4 US carriers, a flight typically doesn't get cancelled because of loads per se. An example might be a 1PM flight out from a hub to a spoke might be terrible with low fares and few passengers, but it positions the plane for a 3PM flight back to the hub which is packed with higher fares connecting to international flights and big cities which more than makes up for the lousy leg positioning the airplane. The other scenario I can think of is if a flight that is full of 200 passengers has a maintenance cancellation, but another city with the same plane only has 30 passengers booked, but has another frequency operating 90 minutes later with open seats, an airline is going to end up inconveniencing those 30 passengers (and so many on the return), instead of 200. I literally asked this question on my first interview with an airline thinking airlines made use of economic cancellations, but there are a ton of reasons why this typically isn't the case and doesn't make sense for most airline operations. I can't speak to smaller carriers for a single frequency daily or less than daily frequency, but my experience has been with several major US airlines.
Out of all of my flights, I’ve only had this happen once. It was about one week before departure on Tarom Romanian airlines from Rome to Bucharest. I was notified by email and rebooked via CDG. They said it almost never happens. All of their flights seem to be empty.
Porter Airlines does this all the time — cancel flights and consolidate for flights that aren’t full. It’s easy for them as they are just operating a shuttle service. Don’t expect to leave or arrive on time with them.
I know for a fact that’s not how Porter operates. Flights may get canceled, but not because of passenger loads. Everything and more mentioned in the article (ATC, weather, maintenance, etc.) influences a schedule on the day. Ultimately, you’re trying to delay the fewest number of people for the least amount of time - not just at that moment, but potentially over a number of days depending on how the aircraft and crew are scheduled,...
I know for a fact that’s not how Porter operates. Flights may get canceled, but not because of passenger loads. Everything and more mentioned in the article (ATC, weather, maintenance, etc.) influences a schedule on the day. Ultimately, you’re trying to delay the fewest number of people for the least amount of time - not just at that moment, but potentially over a number of days depending on how the aircraft and crew are scheduled, as well as the potential for ongoing disruptions for the same reasons. Yes, a flight with fewer passengers may get sacrificed as part of this larger ecosystem, but not simply because it has less passengers. This is especially true for the regional flights with multiple sectors per day on an aircraft.
for US domestic.. yes they do cancel flights that aren’t full depending on the destination.. ie SFO/OAK/SJC or JFK/EWR/LGA. they will cancel the flights and just bus people to the next closest airport to consolidate the flights..
can assure you that has pretty much never happened.
ha! just happened to me at OAK and all of us were put in vans to another airport
I've had two occasions with AA in 2018 and 2019 where they either cancelled to consolidate the passengers into a later flight, or cancelled because the plane never got to ATL. I don't know because they didn't tell me, but it's weird it happened twice. Both times were for a 6:30-7:30AM departure, both times cancelled around midnight before departure and left me scrambling to try and salvage my travel plans. Now I just buy a...
I've had two occasions with AA in 2018 and 2019 where they either cancelled to consolidate the passengers into a later flight, or cancelled because the plane never got to ATL. I don't know because they didn't tell me, but it's weird it happened twice. Both times were for a 6:30-7:30AM departure, both times cancelled around midnight before departure and left me scrambling to try and salvage my travel plans. Now I just buy a separate ticket on a different airline if I need to connect for an international award flight.
For an airline like CX, they can use the biggest a/c they have even if the flights are empty for reasons such as a full flight on the way back, or for cargo where the belly of the a/c is full.