The best part of miles and points in the US is flexibility. Have a trip in mind for next spring with the family? Redeem points now, can probably get some good saver fares, and then either keep the flights or cancel them - no penalties on the Big 3, points get refunded immediately.
And if you book in advance can still be great international deals, although I find that I sometimes am leaving a day earlier or later than ideal in order to get the "deal" especially when looking for 4x tickets each way. Sometimes that's a deal breaker, often not.
And figure out what you value - nothing wrong with flying business o/w and economy the other.
Premium economy has been meaningfully improving too, I recently had a 10-hour flight in it which was extremely comfortable.
In terms of award cancellation for big 3, Delta charges $150 for award cancellations for tickets ORIGINATING from outside US. Definitely a significant disadvantage.
Even $150 doesn't really move the needle on a redemption in the multiple tens of thousands (maybe even 100k+) of miles. Most European airlines charge €50-100, it's not quite the end of the world.
It used to be that airlines were loyal to their FF customers, and we would reciprocate. Slowly but surely, all the airlines started saluting their customers with the middle finger when they discovered the CC. They formed alliances to gain customers on different metal. Then said F You to using partner airlines. Just give the customer a big Lillie, and they will follow anywhere.
As for me, I haven't used OPM in many years. Free agency let's me sleep at nites without worrying how I will get a FC seat on preferred airline exactly when I want it. And I don't run around screaming at my once preferred airline because they just want to monitize seats. How dare they!
I don't know how true this is today, but I think in the future, more and more of the people who fly business and first class will not be ordinary folks using miles, but only people who get their companies to pay for the flights.
Disagree. The trend seems to be the opposite. People pay for first/business and have displaced freeloader OPM elite flyers expecting an upgrade.
There are plenty of pax in first & biz who pay cash for own tickets for leisure travel. You won't find many companies paying for their staff to travel in first class these days, unless it's for the owner or very senior management.
Whilst things are changing, it is still pretty easy to fly transatlantic for less then 800USD oneway, and even Lufthansas new Allegris First is doable with miles.
It's not all bad. Just better hidden for people who understand the game.
But for sure - this whole thing will get harder and sooner or later rather obsolete.
Lufthansas approach of offering a pretty easy elite status, but super shitty award redemptions does seem like one of the ways to go.
Sure, you can earn 3x as many points now, but awards cost 6x as much. Not only have the goal posts moved, you need points in the program of each individual airline you're flying now. For hyper-optimizers, there are still a few good deals, but these are few and far between. I spend virtually all of my Aeroplan points on PYB redemptions.
I've been doing points and miles since Eastern Airlines days and the first year of American. It is harder to get awards but I agree with Ben. If you work it a little you can score great seats that couldn't be imagined back in the early eighties.
Wake me up when I don't have time to sleep on a transatlantic flight, because by the time I enjoy a glass of vintage champagne and lobster we're already landing.
And we could do that in the 70s.
I don't get the bit about status being worth less than it used to be- if anything, things like 'business light' fares and tighter restrictions on hand luggage in Y mean a cash saving on lots of flights for people who are unable/unwilling to travel light.
Personally I know practically nothing about the “Miles and Points World” and came to this website in the expectation of learning more about the subject. When I read an article followed by the post from a Walter Mitty character, I shake my head in disbelief.
The Walter Mitty character who posts under the “Tim Dunn” login, would appear to be doing so on this thread simply to ‘cosy’ up to Ben. Its motives are simply to ingratiate itself into Ben’s favour …. one has to wonder why?
Below, 1990 summed up the Walter Mitty’s transparent post with his “Slow clap” comment. One can only echo that sentiment.
we all know that the CC part is largely a US thing, but has global consequences on award pricing and availability, this has been covered before; but i think one "negative" element, especially on the EU side, that is not covered is the huge increase in airline surcharges on the 3 major EU airlines. You actually hardly get back and forth between the US and EU anymore without adding 1000 eur on top of your miles if you want to fly C or F. On the other side, the "native" thing is very true, but we have to be honnest. It can be your advantage as well. To be honnest, in 20 years, i have always been able to book 2 C or F seats to any destination I wanted on the exact day and flight I wanted, over 20 times on LH/LX metal (lifetime SEN here). By the way, everyone here complains that LH restricts, but accepts without complaining that AF F is actually not available (only to elite and at an unreasonable price in miles) - yes i know their hard and soft product is better, but just not really accessible with miles, whilst LH still is
My take is that airlines are basically doing what Las Vegas has been doing : maximizing profits and going for the high net pax at the cost of your other customers (that get priced out one way or another).
I predict the same outcome.
I don't know what the future holds, but for the moment miles and points remain a valuable tool for my family and I and we feel blessed and grateful to be able to experience a level of travel that goes well beyond our cash budget and well beyond what I experienced when I was growing up. I will admit to being very fortunate that a combination of my wife's small business spending and my own corporate travel has granted us points earning opportunities that not everyone has, but I also know many people with more points than I have that don't make much effort to understand their options and as a result get far less value. As a 1K I've even gotten what I consider to be quite a few good United redemptions in recent years -- for example, 2 tickets at 115K/ticket LAX-LHR earlier this year in Polaris, which I was pretty happy with, or even short trips like AUS - LAX in Y for 12.5K for an upcoming trip. Other recent examples include -- 4 Mint seats East Coast to LAX w/ Eithad (50K/ticket), short hops on AA from SoCal to PHX for 6K Eithad points + nominal taxes/fees, often available last minute for flights priced at $200-250 in Y (at those prices I will take the cancellation risk). 4 J seats LAX - NRT RT for next spring on SQ and JL (this one hurt a bit, bc it cost ~ 1M Capital One points RT but we got 4 seats in peak cherry blossom season). So while I agree there were clearly better arbitrage opportunities "back in the day" (I'm a bit older than you Ben, but not much -- although I sure wish I had had your expertise when I was in my 20s!) I'm a glass half full guy. One day (redemption) at a time 🙂
The old game was:
* Find loophole
* Exploit loophole
* Get ridiculous value
* Fly Lufthansa First for $200 in taxes.
The new game is:
* Earn 300,000 points from Amex Biz Plat
* Spend hours figuring out credits
* Debate whether the points are worth more as travel or cash
* Feel vaguely guilty whichever option you choose
That’s not nearly as fun.