Chilling ATC Audio From Business Jet Crash: "I Think We'll Be Alright"

Ben asks: “What do you make of this incident?”

Well now, in my opinion, from the information available in the article, only a numpty would hazard a guess.

Dinosaurs like JoeAmateurSaurus can get fatigue.
But Joe wants to live like a king holding flying public as hostages.

Sad outcome for a flight that should have just left at 7 or 8 AM the next morning.

I own/operate a similar version of this plane, and fly single pilot including on occasional transcon trips (though not redeyes). I've heard through the grapevine that this pilot was experienced, sensible, safety oriented, and just a genuinely nice guy. Sounds like he regularly does this late night trip like this, and was based at this airport so likely familiar with the approach and runway environment in these conditions. This aircraft had upgraded engines but lacked a glass cockpit.

That being said, the "holes in the Swiss cheese" are many here:
1. Fatigue / late departure time
2. Low IFR conditions (not in and of its self a risk)
3. Night
4. Pre-mature disconnect of the autopilot (my hypothesis)
5. Limited alternates

I firmly believe the single pilot operation of jets like this is very safe so you minimize your risk factors. The number of factors on this flight is far beyond my personal tolerances.

Listening to it last night gave me goose bumps, they sounded so calm and looking at alternates if needed, RIP.

I live in San Diego and I believe the pilot was talking to air traffic control at Gillespie Field, which is east of Montgomery Field. Fog is almost always worse at the coast. When the pilot says he hopes not to see the air traffic controller, I believe he means he hopes not to have to divert to Gillespie Field, which would have had less fog because it is further inland. Unfortunately, that is what should have occurred.

In the audio, right after getting the Gillespie weather, he does state that while the Gillespie weather was better, that airport has higher "minimums" than Montgomery, so it was basically a wash.

For a pilot.minimums" are basically how low you can descend on the approach without seeing the runway (the exact way it works varies depending on what kind of an approach you're doing). So think of the "spread" between the actual weather vs the minimums of the approach he'd be doing at each airport.
Hypothetically:
-Montgomery was reporting cloud base at 200 feet. If the minimum is 200', there is hope of seeing runway.
-Gillespie was reporting 300' which is better, but if the minimum is 400', you're probably not going to get in.

Why is it rich people are allowed to fly private jets and kill people?
How often do you hear a commercial airplane crash? Yet you commonly see these little ones crash, and potentially they can kill people on the ground as well.

Ugh. It’s just tragic. He sounds alert, more than competent, and it appeared he had every intention of respecting the minimums and going around if needed (“hope not to see you but we might.”) All these things put together [to me] indicate a pilot that knows the limitations of himself and his aircraft and has no intention of going “off book.”

I know you can’t 100% believe the playback, but the altitude does go up 100’ right before radar contact is lost. Just wild conjecture that he was paying more attention to trying to see the runway than his instruments.

Many years ago, 2009 IIRC, I was flying into KSNA (we originated at KPAO) with my boyfriend on a C172 on a foggy morning. It was a pretty intense approach threading our way through LA’s busy airspace and we were both moderately fatigued having woken up at ~0400 and taken off from KPAO at ~0500 and flown for a few hours. We were established on the ILS for 20R and a private jet blew a tire on their takeoff roll on 20R shortly after the tower had cleared us to land. Just as the PJ pilot reported the incident to tower, both runways came into view for us. (Cloud bottoms were probably 1000’ and we were maybe a mile or so from the field at the time, but don’t quote me on the specifics.) Tower told us to go around and my bf said “we have 20L in view if you want us to land there.” Tower quickly agreed and we made a pretty aggressive side-step maneuver and safely landed on 20L.

After landing and tying up the plane, my bf remarked “that was probably one of the stupidest things I’ve ever done in a plane. We weren’t tight on fuel yet. We could have just as easily held for a bit and diverted to KFUL or KHHR. I know I was just thinking on my feet but that was one landing I shouldn’t have made. It was simply unnecessary; I just figured the field would close for an hour or two and we didn’t have that kind of fuel to burn, but diverting would have been safer.”

I have no doubt he wouldn’t have suggested 20L if he didn’t think he could safely land there (and also no doubt he would have gone around if that changed), but it just exemplifies the fact that a split second decision can have major consequences. Fortunately, all was well for us, but this sad incident reminded me of our occurrence way back when.

To add, he did self-report the incident to the FAA after the fact. No action was taken as nothing was a FAR violation but it was a good learning experience.

Should just ban private jets and private pilots. Obviously you have ones like this guy who likely didn't get enough sleep and is taking unnecessary risks, putting lives in jeopardy. And now families are destroyed all because we let rich amateurs fly around when they should be forced to use a commercial flight with professional pilots.

How do you know if the weather is below landing minimums when you don’t have the weather at the airport you intend to land at? Do you file an alternate with your flight plan or just pick one when while you are on approach? Lots of people think private jet flying is so much better than flying on an airline flight but the regs governing airline operations, Part 121, would never have allowed this flight to operate under these flight conditions.

Agreed, absolutely chilling. Nothing about the ATC exchanges indicated a less than competent pilot. You don’t consider alternates that much if you have no intention of using them. Must have been a serious case of lost spatial or situational awareness for this to happen.

What? Joe who?

…you do realize there have been several commercial accidents in the past year… right?

Groundless supposition is worthless and unhelpful to those people affected by this serious incident.

lol, and commercial pilots are just supposed to appear out of thin air, with their minimum hours met? Most pilots start out as private pilots.

Local news reported the plane hit a high voltage transmission tower, shearing off part of the wing.

The data shows it at 500 ft ASL in an area where ground was around 400 ft ASL. Throw a 100 foot plus power line into the mix and you have this tragedy.

I also heard on a report - can't confirm - the minimum to have runway in sight on an ILS approach in this situation there was 1,000 ft. In which case it would have been a definite call to use an alternate airport