The A330-900 would be a better fit for the direction of AA's network than more 787s. While the 787s would be a commonality advantage, all but a handful of AA's routes don't need the range of the 787-8 or -9 or the capacity of the 787-10, which is unlikely to change with AA's strongest hubs of DFW, CLT, and MIA being where they are. The A339 by contrast is well-suited to servicing medium haul Europe and Latin flying as operators like DL and TAP have demonstrated, and likely available on a more accelerated timeline than the 787s.
Throw in a handful of 787-10s to replace the -300ER flying to places like LHR (do they even fly that plane on any routes that actually need the 777-300ER's full range capabilities besides SYD?).
The A339NEO is a big plane too. Yes, not as big as the B787-10 however AA can use the B787-10 for many routes and literally replace its B77E's on a 1-for-1 basis.
My guess is that its going all Boeing but we'll see.
The 787-10 is almost an exact replacement for the 777-200ER (in terms of size and range) while maintaining type commonality with their existing 787-9 fleet and delivering unparalleled fuel efficiency per seat on their shorter/denser LATAM and European routes. It's basically guaranteed.
If they do get an A330neo, it would be to replace some of their older 787-8's, but I don't think those are up for replacement. And I don't think they have any plans to grow the size of their widebody fleet in the near future.
The A350 is too big and expensive for them and they don't fly (or plan to fly) any routes that would require the extreme size, range, and fuel efficiency. It could potentially replace their 777-300ERs one day, but not any time soon.
I find it (moderately) interesting that in my adult lifetime we've gone from the excitement of the A380 to "the A350 is too large to make sense for a global long-haul carrier".
Out of curiosity I looked up Vasu Raja to see what he's been doing since leaving American. According to his LinkedIn he started a company called Dihedral, which is some sort of data company to "help companies move from disconnected data to active "customer orchestration." They strive to "make happier and more valuable customers" which is amusing given the job he did at American. After reading the word salad of a description I don't really have any idea what exactly it is that Dihedral, and Raja, do, but there you go.
Their business is to mine, compile, package, and sell data. It's not terribly imaginative in a crowded field dominated by 500-pound gorilla multinationals.
You do write that AA needs to replace their “aging 777-300ERs” but those planes were delivered 2013-2016 and have plenty of life left in them. It’s the 777-200ERs that will need replacing in the next decade(ish). So very glad they are getting an interior refit in the meantime and at 23-26 years old plenty of life left in them too if properly maintained.
AA could make any size plane work on JFK-LHR, even the 777X or A350. BA may not like it, but it's possible.
Probably on some other routes too, like MIA-GRU and GIG, and JFK-CDG.
Counterpoint: even with no change in network strategy, American needs big planes for JV flying. Qantas just announced it’s retiring the a380 and going very premium on its 787s and a350s. That may be good for yields but it a huge number of seats gone from the revenue sharing JV and the jury is out on whether it will be additive.
BA will keep its A380s longer but we’re talking fleet planning here so their retirement has to factor into this decision. (One would hope, but this is American we are talking about here).
The A350-900 was envisioned & is the more direct replacement for the B777-200ER, not the B787-10.
For routes to Europe the A339 or 787-10 would be perfect with the A339 coming in cheaper. For transpacific flying esp. Australia & NZ the A350 is unbeatable with range and capacity.
Boeing forever, Airbus never.
AA will go for the 330 because they have a very long history of going for the cheapest in interesting they do.
This is just my opinion and I am not trying to convince anyone to agree. But... esthetically, I strongly dislike the A330 (any iteration). It's simply not a gracefully designed or pleasant appearing aircraft. The A350 is stunning... the A330 ain't.
The 787 wing is gorgeous. I love the girth, ahem, of a 777.
So, strictly from a superficially vain perspective I vote no on the A330.
I like flying A339s much more than 787-9s. AA doesn't need beauty, they just need more widebodies, and the A339s fit the bill nicely.
Regardless of which they select, I hope AA ups their total number of widebodies. Or, if we’re dreaming, BA gets rid of their charges and AA’s strategy of routing everything through LHR suddenly means a lot cheaper mileage redemptions!
This will be a split order - i am going on record - 40-339s and 20 - 78Xs.....