Alaska May Join American & Japan Airlines Transpacific Joint Venture

since Ben has created a separate article about this potential JV, I will copy the relevant parts from the Zipair article where it was previously revealed in the comments section.

The US DOJ has not allowed two US carriers to have JVs either with each other or on the same route for any period of time. That was the basis of the rejection of the NEA and also why the DOJ takes the approach of a one to one relationship between US and foreign carriers in JVs. JVs involve capacity planning, fare coordination, and revenue and/or profit sharing so requires deep insight into how each airline operates.

Also, JVs are based on how much capacity each airline puts into the JV. AA does not get 50% of the revenue or profits from the JL JV because it puts in far less of the capacity.

It is possible that the DOJ could allow AA and AS to be part of the same JV with JL but not for the same routes. SEA-Tokyo is both an O&D and a leg. It is most likely that AS would be part of the JL JV on the SEA-NRT leg and AA would not be allowed even though AA is part of the JL JV on the SEA-NRT leg today.

The beyond SEA or US gateways O&Ds are the issue and it is possible that the DOJ would approve the JV with AA/JL and AS for non- gateway O&Ds such as MCI or MCO on O&Ds that could be served by either AA or AS and then JL TPAC or completely on AA or AS to Tokyo. AA/JL is smaller than UA/NH in the LOCAL Tokyo market.

The DOJ could and likely will allow JV cooperation on the US to beyond gateway O&Ds as bilaterals allow.

The real issue w/ all of this buildup in Japan is that Japanese carriers are realizing that KE is on the verge of overtaking Japan’s role as the primary NE Asia connecting COUNTRY – a role Japan has traditionally held.

Japan’s two airport in Tokyo divides international traffic and siphons off the highest value Tokyo local revenue to HND. Japanese carriers as well as AA and UA are trying to save NRT’s function for legacy carriers by pushing connecting traffic through NRT. It will be increasingly challenging financially to make US-NRT legacy carrier flights work when the highest value local Tokyo traffic is increasingly being siphoned off to HND.

And DL is still the largest US carrier at HND based on traffic to the US. And Japan is part of the DL-KE JV.
UA is the largest carrier across the Pacific because of their presence to MNL, HKG and South along the Pacific Rim. DL and UA are essentially the same size to NE Asia – Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan and China – based on published schedules.
Adding in OZ’s capacity – which goes into KE’s bank accounts but is not part of the JV – DL/KE/OZ is comparable in size to UA/NH.

JL does not serve SEA-HND which DL and NH do. JL has every reason to try to push traffic onto its network and help its flights work. A JV with AS would put two flights on SEA-NRT and much more traffic on either end, benefitting AS and JL.

DL's network won't be any weaker regardless of what AS or JL do. AS might become another player w/ a shared gateway at SEA but that is true in other west coast markets.

And again, AS hasn't even loaded their ICN flight which they said would start this year. There is a long ways from adding an airport - NRT- which DL doesn't even serve to being a competitor from SEA across DL's global network.

and DL/KE is still larger than any other TPAC JV - not all UA capacity is part of their JV w/ NH - and the gap will only widen as OZ capacity is absorbed by KE or replaced by DL metal, either of which will increase the size of the DL/KE JV since OZ is not part of the DL/KE JV

If only they include Cathay Pacific to the Pacific Joint Business too.

Now THAT would be a powerful grouping. AA would steamroll DL and UA overnight in the Asia-Pacific if that happened.

It’s not that. The thing is, he is so delusional that he misunderstands being a laughing stock for “people being fixated on me”. The only people interested in what he has to say are him and the fake profiles that he creates to compliment himself, yet in his sick delusional mind he seems to think that OMAAT depends on him for page clicks. Yes, it’s that crazy. I don’t know what his mind condition is, but it appears to make him think that he is a very important and relevant person who people are fixated on, when in reality people are just having fun seeing him make such a fool of himself for free. It’s solid entertainment.

I’m going to pull a Tim Dunn and throw out a whole bunch of speculation in this comment and act like I know what I’m talking about….

-I think a few HND slots will open up to AA/AS/HA or UA due to the KE/Asiana/DL JV. I’m excluding any going to DL because they already lead US carriers and provide no connectivity beyond Japan. While not a JV partner, UA loses connectivity/small feed at ICN with the merger. No US carrier other than DL can now compete at ICN.
-I don’t think it’s a coincidence this rumor comes out on the same day as a JAL 7M8 order.
-AS will use the 787 and eventually take over the SEA-NRT route.
-JAL will add a SEA-HND early arrival into HND that gets all of AS’s evening arrival bank into SEA.
-PDX will get a route to TYO.
-AA will get LAS-HND on a 788 4 times weekly.
-AA possibly adds MIA-HND (nothing to do with article but that’s just Timmy’s usual move)
-PHX to NRT gets added. I know NRT doesn’t have slot controls, but it’s time for AA to Asia with the growth of TSMC & PHX connectivity.
-The JV will get approved as long as AA/AS don’t overlap routes. Alaska won’t step into the LAX, and American won’t add SFO/SEA etc. I don’t see AA being added to any Hawaii routes on the JV though, but I’ve been wrong before. (see, it’s not hard to say that Timmy)

See, I can blindfold myself before throwing 100 pieces of trash at trashcan. A few will go in!

You’ll enjoy learning more. They serve more than two in Oceania and Asia and more than you mentioned despite why you think serving akl from two hubs means nothing (more than delta).

And far more in europe than non JV hubs

You and tim have a lot in common for a “guest” profile. You both use facts fast and loose and make random claims that aren’t true.

But sure. Adding Alaska to the JV makes a ton of sense for AA. American has no advantages to Asia, unlike United. They’ve never had historical help like delta (that completely squandered it and is likely in a distant third place dependent on Korean if as joins the AA Asian JV) but they serve many many places that aren’t JV hubs

Read more comments than what tim says then say more than what Tim types for you. You’ll learn something.

And yet delta pays $2B to lure them away from AA (AFTER Latam knew they’d never get a JV with AA. Delta still had to spend $2b and buy their unwanted planes) then loses all that money a year later while United takes them from delta with ease (virgin Australia)

ChatGPTim BUSTED!!!!!!

No way. AA would love this because it takes out a competitor in the market. I want to fly on Hawaiian Airlines from Seattle.

Lmao you're just salty that I disagreed with you once and actually had facts to back it up. Notice how I specifically said that's NOT a JV hub?

Ofc AA has flights to a few Asia and Oceania destinations outside of the ones I mentioned. The point is that AA has a heavy overreliance on JV partners to the point it diminishes their own network. JAL and QF do most of the heavy lifting for AA. JAL is roughly 2x the size of AA in terms of TPAC ASMs, and the proof is in the pudding, AA just doesn't fly to that many other TPAC destinations that aren't Australia and Japan. I forgot PVG, but there's really just that few other unique destinations that they serve.

I didn't mention AS a single time in my comment above, but you're just that butthurt since I stated from the beginning that AS will help the OW JV, but not to the drastic proportions you think it will to let them match the UA/ANA JV, it's just completely unrealistic, and you can't accept that.

You're so Tim-brained that you assume the worst and you quite honestly spend the most amount of time of any single person on here replying to him in real-time to an unhealthy point. Like Tim is not even in this reply thread, but you're here shadowboxing against him for some reason, very sad.

as usual, you are here to provide heat and provide no light.

no HND slots will be added just because AA or AS wants it. Period. we can stop there.

all the fantasies on internet social media have absolutely no impact in the real world.

AS is PLANNING to fly to an airport that DL doesn't even serve.

Delta is at the top of the heap in the legacy carrier industry but it is not perfect.

Feel free to peruse DOT data.

DL doesn't have a 100% on-time rating.

and you and others want to believe that AS will dethrone DL. we get it.

AS isn't dethroning anything with a 2-2-2 business class cabin to a second tier airport that DL doesn't even serve.

DL flies to HND which is where the local market wants to go in Tokyo.

yolo for the win!

max got yolo'd

I know you salivate but half of what you fixate on has not been decided.

Get back w/ us when JL has added AS to the JV and the implications for AA are known.

lol
Surprising they don’t with their block padding but ok

There’s nothing for Alaska to dethrone.
Delta is half the size of Alaska in Seattle

Read and learn
Bne and pvg are two but whatever helps you not learn or research

Congrats
You have the internet joke on your side

But please
Keep with the facts you don’t know about
Always cute how Tim’s guest accounts are so quickly replied to by him

The topic is Alaska so it’s pertinent to mention is as it pertains to the future potential state of a Jv

Tim
How many fake accounts do you have?

@Tim Dunn willing to bet walking away from commenting on OMAAT & VFTW when they do?

Jesus, you really are so deranged.

I literally mentioned PVG in my reply and BNE is a Qantas hub. I suppose there is a reason why you spend all your time replying to Tim Dunn.

It’s nice that tim has friends
Real or imaginary

thank you for putting in writing what everyone knew...you DESPERATELY want to see me NOT participate in aviation social media.

and it is precisely because of the facts that I bring to the discussion that you and others don't want to hear or read.

There are no more frequencies available for flights between the US and Japan even though US considers Japan an open skies country. It is very possible that Japan could decide to add more flights but they won't do it just because AS decided to fly to Asia long after the latest HND frequency allocation award.

And DL asked the DOT to be able to change existing HND awards, specifically regarding its PDX-HND award which DL received during covid and never flew. The DOT denied but AA supported DL and UA jumped in wanting to fly IAH-HND instead of to NRT.
Every US carrier would like to change something about their Tokyo awards and it is certain that AS would fly to HND if it had a slot. JL might switch their SEA flight to HND - but they have to drop something they currently fly. Let us know what that might be. Since they fly HND-HNL double daily and so does HA, JL could reduce its presence by one but that just helps DL and NH which also serve the market.

and AA did jump in and take DL's previous PDX-HND award to fly JFK-HND. there is no data on how well AA is doing on profits on that flight but its entire transpacific and transatlantic systems continue to lose money on an annual basis. UA makes money flying both the Atlantic and Pacific but at a far lower rate than DL does.
those realities are inconvenient for a whole lot of airline specific cheerleaders but they are facts.

And as much as one CEO loves to talk about the profitability of his company's hubs, it is AA and WN that fly huge portions of their systems at barely breakeven at best and likely half or more of their networks fly at a loss - in addition to several LCCs and ULCCs.

All of the internet talk about DL's vulnerability at SEA and how AS or JL or anyone else is going to knock DL out of the market can't explain how DL manages to lead the US industry in profitability. If SEA was so bad for DL, then why can't AA and UA duplicate what DL does in other parts of the country to generate profits sufficiently large for DL to subsidize not just SEA but other supposedly money-losing hubs?

and if DL loses money at SEA, then AS would likely have a predatory pricing case against DL - unless AS loses money flying other parts of their network and they know that if they accuse DL of taking share at SEA at a loss, DL and other carriers will do the same about AS.

So, no, I have no intention of ending my presence on airline social media regardless of what happens in the industry. you and others clearly want me to stop saying what I say which is all the more reason for me to keep stating my message.

JL might want AS in the oneworld JV but it will harm AA because AS will compete in at least some O&Ds that AA carries traffic in full or part via the JV.
There is no mechanism for AS to fly to HND under current regulations - and even if something changes, every other carrier US will restructure their own Tokyo operations.
and given the way the industry is operating now, DL continues to lead the industry as the most profitable US carrier on an ASM basis, and has the largest JV while UA is the largest single carrier across the Pacific because of its presence outside of the US, Japan and S. Korea which are the primary countries for the TPAC JVs.

HKG and China do not have Open Skies with the US which is generally required by the US in order to have JVs.

and HKG is halfway down the Pacific Rim so is far less valuable as a TPAC hub than Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan or Beijing

See, I knew you wouldn’t put your money where your mouth is. Instead, #wordsalad

“no HND slots will be added”… Just look for me in the comments of the article announcing a new round of US flights.

Japan can ALWAYS decide to add more flights - and AS could well - probably likely would - win an award IF more HND frequencies are added

but there is no indication that Japan is willing to do that.

based on the current situation, there is no ability for any additional HND flights. Even if JL wants to start SEA-HND flights on its own metal and allow AS to fly SEA-NRT, JL would have to drop some other HND flight.
I have yet to hear a single person speculate about what HND flight JL would drop in order to start SEA-HND flights.

until a oneworld carrier adds SEA-HND, there is no impact on DL or NH's SEA service; AS will be chasing the same connecting traffic over HND that is connected over multiple Asian hubs including ICN and TPE, the former of which, like NRT, is part of a big 3 JV while all of the current TPE nonstops are not part of the JV.

it is not word salad to note these facts, including that AS' larger size at SEA does not mean they have or will have any better ability to connect passengers to longhaul international flights than DL. not every city contributes anything. AS' larger size than DL is heavily driven by more frequencies in the same markets. Only ONE flight is the ideal connection to any international flight. AS' 6th and 7th additional flights compared to DL do nothing to improve AS' ability to connect international flights.

the only word salad is your senseless inability to accept industry facts and reality because they do not meet your narrative.

I still prefer JAL or ANA, although the Delta flight from Haneda to Seattle has a good arrival time of being in the morning.

The Hong Kong government will happily sign an open skies agreement if Cathay Pacific wants it.

The only barrier is American and JAL agreeing to include them in the Pacific JV.

CX/HKG is an amazing hub, with multiple waves of flights, with great connectivity to Southeast Asia, a big and growing market. AA/CX/JL combined would much more market share and pricing power.

"they do not meet your narrative"

HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA. You make me laugh. You're the king of throwing a fit if there's one negative mention of DL. If United is mentioned, you go into full on meltdown. See you in the UA/AA HND expansion article.

put the crack pipe down.

AA presence is imperceptible in the Pacific, as it puts most of its marbles into Latin American/Spanish speaking countries. That said, ANY Alaska Air Pacific relationship is a bonus for AA.

AA doesn’t fly SEA - NRT/HND. What widebody is AA going to redeploy?

I see this as a win for AA (assuming AS gets into the JV) out of JFK, DFW and to a lesser extent LAX.

@ aotcmo -- Indeed, thank you! Fixed... too much news today. :p

@ 1990_ -- It's coming, I promise you! Goodness, there's a LOT of news. 🙂

literally directly from the press release:

"In 2027, Alaska also plans to deepen its Bank of America relationship by enabling customers with eligible Bank of America card products to transfer points into Atmos Rewards. The new capability will give Bank of America cardholders another path into Atmos Rewards while creating an additional revenue opportunity for Alaska through the sale of points. Over time, Atmos Rewards also plans to add points-transfer opportunities with other select global financial institutions, creating incremental revenue while building the program’s global relevance."

can you please stop with the stupid exclusivity warnings now? give it a rest

I sure hope this will be the case! Though to be honest if I'm flying OW long-haul out of SEA I will most likely be in AS (or CX/JL) J anyway.

It was what AS said. We used to concentrate on costs, to the detriment of experience. So that changes/is changing.

BUT it's JV with AA could be problematic. No matter what they say, AA is still a cost based airline. Yesm they've ordered new planes, seating, etc. That's long term. As of now and forseable future, they operate a crap airline. Makes me wonder what AS customers would think of it?

@JR--It will certainly be interesting to see where this leads. A couple of things:

1. I don't think the TPAC JV being discussed here covers Australia flights. It looks like AA has a separate JV with Qantas for that and I have read nothing to indicate AS is being asked to join that JV. I am not sure why as I think HA still flies from HNL to SYD.

2. Personally, because I am Seattle-based, I hope AS becomes very strong in international long hauls from SEA before expanding that service to other airports. That will also depend upon delivery schedules for new aircraft.

Why do you think AS is blocking the award? More than likely JL isn't providing saver awards to AS.

Agreed. That merger talk has to stop. But who would take over whom? In a "Mouse that Roared"-type scenario, you had tiny America West --> US Airways --> American Airlines...so, has American *really* been around for 100 years? Certainly if American took over US Airways, but if it's the other way around...