Ultra low cost carriers in the United States are in a tough spot. At the start of the pandemic, the legacy carriers got better at competing with ultra low cost carriers, both in terms of their routes (point-to-point leisure service), and in terms of their product offering (more compelling basic economy options).
Lately, we’ve seen Frontier Airlines increasingly expand into business markets, attacking legacy carriers at their hubs. This also comes as the airline has overhauled its fare structure.
Earlier today, I wrote about how Frontier Airlines was planning on launching a route that left me scratching my head. However, the airline has seemingly already backtracked on these plans in recent hours… or something.
In this post:
Frontier Airlines’ surprising transcon route plans
Last night, Ishrion Aviation had the scoop on some new routes that Frontier Airlines is adding as of August 13, 2024. The airline is continuing to attack legacy carriers and JetBlue, with new flights from Boston (BOS) to Atlanta (ATL), Charlotte (CLT), and Dallas (DFW).
However, there was one new route that was most surprising to me. Frontier Airlines was planning on adding a new daily flight between New York (JFK) and Los Angeles (LAX). The 2,475-mile flight was supposed to operate with the following schedule:
New York to Los Angeles departing 8:59AM arriving 11:55AM
Los Angeles to New York departing 8:58PM arriving 5:34AM (+1 day)
Just this month, Frontier Airlines has made its return to New York (JFK), as the airline has launched flights between there and San Juan (SJU). As of August, Frontier Airlines will also launch flights from New York (JFK) to Las Vegas (LAS), though to me that’s less surprising.
What makes this so interesting is that this morning, Frontier even sent out a press release confirming this new route. But then very shortly thereafter, the airline retracted it, and now the airline is stating that it doesn’t plan to launch the route “at this time.”
That has to be the fastest I’ve ever seen an airline backtrack on a route. So, what exactly happened here in the background? We can only speculate.
I was surprised to learn about this route in the first place, since JFK is a partially slot controlled airport, and it wasn’t clear where Frontier was getting those slots from. The redeye was scheduled to arrive early enough so that slots wouldn’t be needed, while the mid-morning departure would require a slot.
So my assumption is that Frontier didn’t actually have the slot to operate this route that it thought it had. Maybe the slot was supposed to be leased from another airline, but that airline had a change of heart at the last minute, when it learned the route that Frontier would use it for? Keep in mind that slot waivers remain in effect, meaning that the incumbent airlines can slot squat.
Does a JFK to LAX route make sense for Frontier Airlines?
Of all the markets an ultra low cost carrier could expand into, entering the New York to Los Angeles market has to be the strangest. This is the most competitive, premium market in the country. It’s served by American, Delta, and JetBlue, and there are roughly 30 flights per day. Meanwhile United has a huge presence in the Newark to Los Angeles market, though I’m not counting that here.
Would there be merit to Frontier coming in and offering a single daily flight, with a rough redeye schedule in one direction, no less?
Logically some people may be thinking “well, the New York to Los Angeles market isn’t just premium, and there are plenty of people just looking for the lowest fare.” You’re absolutely right. This gets back to how legacy airlines are doing a good job competing with their basic economy products, because currently you’ll regularly see basic economy fares of $132-142 one-way, and this is before Frontier even enters the market.
How much can Frontier really undercut the competition here? I mean, would you rather fly JetBlue for $132 and get a good amount of legroom, free entertainment, free Wi-Fi, free drinks and snacks, and your choice of nearly 10 daily frequencies, or fly Frontier?
I suppose there’s some percentage of the traveling public who just go online and book whatever the cheapest ticket is, no matter what, even if it doesn’t represent the best value, and has a terrible schedule. And maybe Frontier can attract those passengers. But it also doesn’t change the fact that the operating costs of a flight this long aren’t exactly low.
I suppose the other angle might be that at the last minute, basic economy fares on existing airlines often aren’t as cheap, so maybe Frontier can get a lot of last minute bookings.
Bottom line
Frontier Airlines is continuing to expand into business markets that are dominated by other airlines. The airline intended to launch once daily flights between New York and Los Angeles, though has backtracked within hours. If launched, this would be one of Frontier’s boldest new routes yet, given how competitive and premium the market is.
However, at least for the time being, this route isn’t happening. Frontier put out a press release indicating this route was going to happen, and backtracked shortly thereafter. I have to imagine that the slots Frontier was counting on just didn’t materialize as planned. It sounds to me like this route isn’t permanently off the table, though, and it’s just a function of Frontier getting the permission it needs.
What do you make of the prospect of Frontier entering the JFK to LAX market?
Ishrion has reported that F9 has now pulled this offering, despite it previously being coupled with their JFK-LAS rotation.
Looks like I'm gonna have to stick with flying from Newark to LAX with Spirit. Oh well.
I’d rather drive than fly Frontier. They’re a third world airline on a par with Spirit. I’d go out of my way to avoid them. JFK-LAX is out of their wheelhouse. Can’t see anyone sitting in those crap seats for six hours.
excuse me! Third world airlines are nice.
Any way you could call out / highlight changes to articles when reposting? I already read this and don’t want to re-read the whole article to find the 3 new sentences…
What might be better idea is try some similar niche route not served by legacies such as Trenton or Westcheter to Long Beach/Burbank
in other words, they were signaling to B6 that "we can come after you but aren't right now so cool it in SJU"
More like the other way around. sju is B6 turf and PR crowd are loyal to B6. They are telling F9 they will not have it easy. And now B6 is challenging on the isp-Florida flying. When B6 started jfk-lax 4x daily on all economy A320’s, pre mint, they were hemorrhaging money. That was when their costs was much much lower and jfk was cheaper to operate. That was 11 years ago. So they came...
More like the other way around. sju is B6 turf and PR crowd are loyal to B6. They are telling F9 they will not have it easy. And now B6 is challenging on the isp-Florida flying. When B6 started jfk-lax 4x daily on all economy A320’s, pre mint, they were hemorrhaging money. That was when their costs was much much lower and jfk was cheaper to operate. That was 11 years ago. So they came up with mint, and now they “mint” money on jfk-lax. With no premium that route is a money loser. B6 alternative was completely pull out if they didn’t offer mint. Point is, F9 costs are higher than the B6 11 years ago, and jfk is costlier. I think they ran the numbers and saw they would get clobbered especially with only 1x a day. If they did it just to “send a signal” then they are just as ridiculously childish as Delta is with blocking B6 gates in Atlanta.
It's probably a SWISS typo.
Maybe they can do Ryanair-style $10 one way and hope that on such a long redeye enough people will splurge on a $5 coke or pay their way out of middle seat?
I think there are a lot of young people in both cities (college/fresh grad) who will book the cheapest ticket between both cities either to visit friends or the other city. Frontier will also help bring prices down even further. I think Spirit used to fly between EWR and LAX and this was the population they attracted
I could see a potential for higher priced and increased sales of ancillaries, the bread-and-butter of ULCCs. Of course, that's changing as well.
Can't wait to watch all those TikTok entertainment found only on ULCC.
Coming soon : 30 lb stuffed pillow fight.
They can't even fly from LA to San Diego without a delay or cancelation. How do they expect to fly across the country?!!
The bigger part is where the slots are coming from. There were rumors that AA is trying to lease out some of its slots now that B6 has returned all slots due to the NEA being overturned.
Cost advantage for ultra low cost carriers diminishes as the length of haul increases while onboard sales increase. Frontier might get just a tad of the market and be fine.
and poking B6 in the eye might well be part of the motive as well
This, and the Boston expansion, are surely a retaliatory reaction to JetBlue boasting San Juan right after Frontier announced a base and expansion. This is type of tit for tat thing happens all the time. It doesn’t matter if these type of markets make sense, it’s just to prove a point. Sometimes, they never even fly. Others last just a short period.
Sure they can fill a plane. Will they make any money? Doubtful. I wonder if Frontier is going to force crews to work the turn back? Think particularly with weather the number of times the crew will time out and the turn cancelled. A red eye on Frontier? I'd rather hitchhike across the country.
I fly JFK-SNA on AA. It is common for FAs to fly the out and back on the same day. I havent seen the pilots do that though.
Doesn't it feel like everywhere we look its mainly Frontier (or Spirit) or NOTHING?!?? :( :( :(
There is absolutely a large swath of the population (generally not those here or on FlyerTalk) that just book whatever is cheapest, no matter what, even if only by $10 and even if after ancillary fees it actually is not cheaper. Frontier will nab those people. Whether they can be profitable doing so, I have no idea!
No WiFi on Frontier is a dealbreaker, don’t care what the price is
Last minute ticket aren’t $150 on this route. On a last min basis which is how many on this route book the difference between Frontier and other carriers will be greater thus making the frontier flight more attractive, this is the market they will have an edge serving.
This is a route connecting America's 2 largest cities. Surely it's not entirely about premium demand only.
Spirit also does BWI-LAX, PHL-LAX as well with no plans to end those. Yes JetBlue might offer those advertised fares now but as their planes fill up, those fares rise, making Frontier look all the more appealing to a price conscious traveller.
That’s great and all, probably still a recipe to lose money
Spirit is currently flying EWR TO LAX 2x daily. Who in their right minds who buy a flight on frontier or spirit?
There are lots of foreign tourists who love to take red eyes when visiting. Saves them a nights worth on an expensive hotel. But no, that’s not a sustainable business model. Frontier clearly aims to be scrapping the bottom of the market which isn’t a good strategy when you have such a long route.