A couple of days ago, I posed the question of whether the government shutdown is about to “break” our air travel ecosystem, given increasing staffing issues with air traffic control and security. Along those lines, United States Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy made some noteworthy comments on Tuesday, and a reader has a take on this that I think is worth sharing…
In this post:
Government threatens to close some airspace next week
A reader shared the following comment with me, which I’ll share in its entirety:
Ben, are you going to write about this weird threat SecDOT issued? He framed it like a warning, but it was clearly a threat. Closing airspace, even in the midst of this shutdown, would be unprecedented and unwarranted. To wit:
In January 2019, ten controllers called in sick. LaGuardia shut down. Hours later, Trump ended the shutdown. His aides admitted that the chaos in aviation forced the deal.
The FAA has never closed airspace for staffing reasons, only for security or weather. Threatening closures a week in advance while clearly blaming Democrats is just politics, not operations.
Republicans control everything yet trail 52-42 in polls regarding shutdown blame. The administration acknowledges it is inflicting pain to pressure Democrats. Trump said, “We are shutting down Democrat programs… they’re getting killed.”
So Duffy creates a crisis, announces it ahead of time, and assigns blame before it happens. This is clever if you are okay with using national airspace to win a political battle you are losing.
For context, this is in reference to comments Duffy made about air traffic controllers getting an email pay stub this Thursday indicating that they’re not getting a paycheck for a second time. To quote Duffy:
“Many of the controllers said, ‘a lot of us can navigate missing one paycheck, none of us can manage missing two paychecks.’ So if you bring us to a week from today, Democrats, you will see mass chaos, you will see mass flight delays, you will see mass cancelations, and you may see us close certain parts of the airspace, because we just cannot manage it because we don’t have the air traffic controllers.”
My take on Sean Duffy’s airspace closure comments
For the purposes of this discussion, let’s ignore that some air traffic controllers make over $200K per year (often living in cities that aren’t terribly expensive), but “none” of them can afford to miss more than one paycheck. I realize we’re not good at living within our means in the United States, but oy.
So, what do I make of Duffy’s comments, and the above theory? As I wrote about a couple of days ago, aviation is absolutely the thing that could cause action to be taken regarding the shutdown, since it’s one of the most direct ways that the public is impacted by this. People don’t like anyone messing with their travel plans.
Conceptually, I agree with Duffy regarding his belief that our aviation system will “break” soon, and it might coincide with the second set of missed paychecks. After all, this government shutdown has now been the longest in history.
But here’s the thing I find concerning — it’s one thing if I say that, as a dude who writes stuff on the internet for a living, and nothing more. It’s a little different when the Transportation Secretary says it, especially when air traffic controllers legally have to come to work.
It’s almost like Duffy is signaling to them “hey, next week is a good time to break the law and not go to work,” while repeatedly blaming Democrats. The threat of airspace closing also just seems a bit much. It’s one thing to have delays and cancelations, but having the government close airspace? That’s a drastic and unprecedented prediction.
The problem is, I don’t actually see which party will budge here. We obviously need compromise, but that’s just not happening. From a public perception standpoint, I think most people would agree it would be idiotic for the Democrats to just fully give in, as the Trump administration has been pushing for.
The frustration so many people have had with the Democratic party is how weak they’ve been for years, and just fully giving in several weeks into the shutdown certainly won’t be a “win.” Furthermore, at least based on all the polls I’ve seen (and if there are reputable ones I’m missing that paint a different picture, please tell me) public perception is that Republicans are more to blame than Democrats. So this definitely doesn’t seem like an area where Democrats would be well advised to back down.
Bottom line
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy predicts that our aviation ecosystem will no longer function properly as of next week, and even suggests the government could shut down airspace, which would be an unprecedented move, for those purposes. We’ll see how this plays out, but I don’t think anyone can say with certainty that this isn’t a political play.
What do you make of Duffy’s comments about potential airspace closures?
It does seem more like a 'threat,' because this is all a preventable, manufactured crisis.
So, the administration's Department of Transportation Secretary issues is threat. But to whom? To the traveling public? To private jets? To less-served rural areas? To workers? All the above? Yet none of those people have the power to fix this; Republicans in the Senate do.
Republicans can negotiate in good-faith with Democrats to pass a bi-partisan budget; instead, Republicans...
It does seem more like a 'threat,' because this is all a preventable, manufactured crisis.
So, the administration's Department of Transportation Secretary issues is threat. But to whom? To the traveling public? To private jets? To less-served rural areas? To workers? All the above? Yet none of those people have the power to fix this; Republicans in the Senate do.
Republicans can negotiate in good-faith with Democrats to pass a bi-partisan budget; instead, Republicans have refused to negotiate. So, maybe they'll enjoy their breakfast with the President this morning, then either 'flip the board' (change the Senate rules to simple majority), or finally negotiate.
How is being AIPAC’s little whore working out for you, America?
MAGA!!!!
Typically blaming Democrats.
Meanwhile Emperor Trump is spending $300 million on a tacky ballroom and wants to spend hundreds of millions more on a triumphal arch !
Here is Europe, we have rights. If you don't get paid you don't work. Simple
France 1789. A la volante du peuple , et a la sante du progres.
Yes, 'to the will of the people and to the health of progress,' indeed. I hear the people sing.
We applaud your focus on humanity, worker protections, and consumer rights. Many of us in the USA know that these are the 'better way' to do things, yet, we are fighting against entrenched oligarchic and corporate power. It's always been a class war, not a culture war, here.
And, on the topic of ballrooms, it's...
Yes, 'to the will of the people and to the health of progress,' indeed. I hear the people sing.
We applaud your focus on humanity, worker protections, and consumer rights. Many of us in the USA know that these are the 'better way' to do things, yet, we are fighting against entrenched oligarchic and corporate power. It's always been a class war, not a culture war, here.
And, on the topic of ballrooms, it's far worse than those petty vanity projects, believe it or not. (And, don't worry, the Trumpers will soon be on here to say he's getting secret donors to pay, not taxpayers, as if that makes it ok.)
Daedalus would be proud.
A country that puts someone like Trump in power, not once, but twice, is one I frankly could not care less about and watching it spiral gives me a good dose of schadenfreude.
What side voted 13 times against a clean continuing resolution? Democrats. What side voted 13 times during Ben admin for clean continuing resolution? Democrats. No serious person blames republicans for shutdown.
*Biden admin. Thank God we don't have a Ben admin!
Judging by Republicans' abysmal election results across the country last night, anyone with a functioning brain does...
Well said, Telly. As he admitted to us on VFTW, Mantis is American who gave up on us and moved to Asia, so don't take him too seriously. He's just in-it for the chaos.
Had the continuing resolution been enacted it would have ended on November 21 (only 2 weeks from now), and we would be facing another shutdown.
The House should have been spending this time negotiating an actual budget. Instead, Speaker Johnson sent the House on a paid vacation.
Donald Trump quote:
If there is a shutdown... I actually think the president would be blamed. If there is a shutdown, I think it would be a tremendously negative mark on the president of the United States."
It's the White House " talking points script" ( everything will fall apart unless trump gets his way ). This administration has had success in ruling by lies and fear. No need to be afraid of this useless bullying.
“I alone can fix it.”
- Some Short Fingered Florida Vulgarian
Ben nailed it. This is stage direction, not prediction. And it’s completely in line with this administration‘s modus operandi of strongly hinting at what people should do for them with the thinnest possible veneer of plausible deniability that would only convince their base.
Duffy's strongly hinting at when controllers should call out sick while pre-blaming Democrats. POTUS and SecDOT clearly think that if they can inflict pain on hungry poor people and the flying public...
Ben nailed it. This is stage direction, not prediction. And it’s completely in line with this administration‘s modus operandi of strongly hinting at what people should do for them with the thinnest possible veneer of plausible deniability that would only convince their base.
Duffy's strongly hinting at when controllers should call out sick while pre-blaming Democrats. POTUS and SecDOT clearly think that if they can inflict pain on hungry poor people and the flying public that’ll bring the Democrats to heel.
Democrats are fighting for a huge chunk of the American people to be able to afford healthcare. Meanwhile, this administration has made it very clear that they can fund the things they considered to be a priority, even during a government shut down (bailing out Argentina, importing Argentinian beef at the expense of American cattlemen, etc).
The FAA manages staffing shortages daily without threatening airspace closures. But that doesn't generate headlines. Weaponizing Thanksgiving travel does.
Surprised you haven't posted on the UPS MD-11 crash in Kentucky.
You all must live in a different planet.
The vote at hand is to CONTINUE to fund the government. To pass the Senate, that needs 60 votes. Even though Republicans have a majority, that’s not 60. Simple math.
Democrats want to do something with healthcare which is NOT in current FY spending budget. So, increasing spending, not just CONTINUING to fund government. Following me here?
Polls mean literally nothing.
If Democrats (or Republicans for...
You all must live in a different planet.
The vote at hand is to CONTINUE to fund the government. To pass the Senate, that needs 60 votes. Even though Republicans have a majority, that’s not 60. Simple math.
Democrats want to do something with healthcare which is NOT in current FY spending budget. So, increasing spending, not just CONTINUING to fund government. Following me here?
Polls mean literally nothing.
If Democrats (or Republicans for that matter), want to legislate healthcare, then legislate. That’s literally their job. But, to not CONTINUE to fund the government in lieu of legislation is not doing their job.
Democrats have withheld the CONTINUING funding of the government hostage to promotes an agenda that they can’t legislate properly.
Democrats are asking to extend vital healthcare subsidies along with a CR because waiting until the end of the year will cause even more problems than GQP stonewalling has already. Republicans won't negotiate despite controlling everything. That's how legislative leverage works in the minority. And the Democrats have offered to negotiate – Republicans refused to come to the table, and then try to blame the Democrats
Republicans could pass this with Democratic input with the...
Democrats are asking to extend vital healthcare subsidies along with a CR because waiting until the end of the year will cause even more problems than GQP stonewalling has already. Republicans won't negotiate despite controlling everything. That's how legislative leverage works in the minority. And the Democrats have offered to negotiate – Republicans refused to come to the table, and then try to blame the Democrats
Republicans could pass this with Democratic input with the nuclear option.. Instead they're threatening airspace closures, froze $28 billion in blue state projects, and bailed out Argentina with $20 billion while claiming there's no money for SNAP.
They trail 52-42 in blame polls because Democrats are demanding healthcare protections 72% of Americans support, while Republicans respond by weaponizing Thanksgiving travel.
That's not equivalent tactics. That's popular policy versus manufactured crisis.
That’s so thinly veiled it’s embarrassing. Just like the rest of this mess, I suppose.
There’s really no way for everyone to save face at this point, so hopefully the next few days will see actual action occurring in Washington and this disaster can come to a close.
Selfishly, I am glad I lucked out with a few weeks at home - no travel until the 17th. Traveling during the shutdown I feel like I’m...
That’s so thinly veiled it’s embarrassing. Just like the rest of this mess, I suppose.
There’s really no way for everyone to save face at this point, so hopefully the next few days will see actual action occurring in Washington and this disaster can come to a close.
Selfishly, I am glad I lucked out with a few weeks at home - no travel until the 17th. Traveling during the shutdown I feel like I’m part of the problem, “forcing” people to work without pay, but I have to do my job too. :|
Its Duffy, of course its thin. Trump also sets him up for failure and a scapegoat if airspace closure happens. Takes his NASA interim gig (rightly) and after gov resumes SecTrans.
Spot on, both of you
Duffy’s threat has been made in order to try to up the pressure on the country to surrender to the wishes of Trump and his Trumpublican minions so that the Trump regime can more easily carry on with its egregiously unlawful behavior against liberty, freedom and the rule of law for all US persons.
Correct! It’s Trump versus America again.
As a European I'm a bit confused. My understanding was, that shutdowns come from the debt-ceiling having to be raised. But didn't the US shift back to a tariff based system and is pondering to reduce taxes due to this? I would have expected this means the national debt would go down, at least until the taxes have been signioficantly reduced?
This is a major oversimplification, but the current shutdown was because not enough senators (need 60) could agree to the proposed budget over healthcare funding levels. That’s only one part of the proposed budget of course, but the whole thing has to be approved to be passed.
The shutdown is only tenuously connected to the debt. Rather, it is a result of Congress not passing, and therefore the president not signing, a budget measure, whether a continuing resolution to maintain the most recent budget or a new budget altogether. Angst over the debt contributes to, but does not control this.
I suspect that after last night's drubbing—Democrats won all major races in landslides—Republicans will see the writing on the wall and play ball. Americans clearly (and rightly) blame them for the shutdown.
Drubbing? Blue states elected democrats, not that shocking. Really the only shock was they still won with god awful candidates.