Delta Air Lines plans to expand its presence between Seattle and London this coming winter, as flagged by @IshrionA. I suspect this is intended as a preemptive move given Alaska Airlines’ long haul expansion, but I can’t help but think the airline is being a bit too aggressive…
In this post:
Delta grows Seattle to London market in winter
For the upcoming 2025-2026 IATA winter season, Delta plans to operate daily flights between Seattle (SEA) and London (LHR), representing a bit of a strategy shift. For context, this past winter, Delta operated in the market 3x weekly.
What’s going on here is that this past winter, Delta launched a seasonal 4x weekly London to Orlando flight, and those Heathrow slots came from the Seattle service, which was reduced from 7x weekly to 3x weekly at the time. So that route won’t be making a comeback next winter, and instead, Delta will move those 4x weekly slots back to Seattle, so that it can resume daily flights.
Here’s what makes this even more interesting, though. The 4,801-mile flight is also operated daily by Virgin Atlantic, so the Delta and Virgin Atlantic joint venture will have 2x daily flights in the market.
I don’t see this level of winter capacity lasting
We’ll see how this plays out, but I’m just going to go ahead and put in my guess that the 14x weekly flights between Seattle and London on Delta and Virgin Atlantic won’t last for the winter season, and that there will be cuts. I don’t think anyone thinks that demand across the Atlantic will be stronger this upcoming winter than it has been in past winters, given the current global situation.
For what it’s worth, British Airways operates 10x weekly flights in the market in winter, and has a material competitive advantage over Delta:
- It partners with Alaska, which has more connectivity in Seattle than Delta does
- It has a massive regional and global connecting network in London, much bigger than with Virgin Atlantic; that’s especially important in winter, where transatlantic demand just isn’t as high
We know that Alaska is launching long haul flights out of Seattle. The airline will first fly to Tokyo Narita and Seoul Incheon, but plans to expand to Europe in 2026. I can’t help but think that Delta beefing up in the Seattle to London market is partly a competitive response to that, though I’m not sure what exactly it’s going to accomplish. It’s going to be interesting to see how the “battle in Seattle” evolves.
Figuring out where to fly planes in winter can be complicated. However, what Delta’s doing here just doesn’t feel like a winning strategy. The airline reduced Seattle flights to launch Orlando flights. Then the airline canceled Orlando flights to boost Seattle flights. And now the airline plans to grow in Seattle again, across the Atlantic in winter.
Bottom line
This upcoming winter, Delta will cancel its Orlando to London flight, and instead boost its Seattle to London service. Between Delta and Virgin Atlantic, the airlines are planning to operate 14x weekly flights in the market. That’s more service than is offered by British Airways, which has a much stronger market position.
I find this level of service to be a bit of a head scratcher, and if I were a betting man, I’d guess we’ll see some frequency cuts…
What do you make of Delta’s Seattle to London winter expansion? Do you think it will last?
Ben forgets that airlines are for a profit business. The A350-1000 will be a total game changer for Delta in 2027. The LATAM JV will put AA out of business. DL’s majority 4.8% stake in KL/AF is the reason why the world has La Premiere. Another click bait headline just to generate page views and tarnish the perfect reputation of Sir Edward Bastian.
How is this a clickbait headline, when it is giving information about schedule changes? As for the rest of your comment, unless you're an expert in aviation policy or business - something we have no evidence of - it's just a lot of speculation to draw attention to your unnecessary and frankly ill-tempered accusation.
he’s being sarcastic
He’s not the only one whose sarcasm detector is in need of calibration
Did Aero go to bed? he seemed like a good candidate for your random fake profile posters on this one?
Tim, you really need to drink less. You use the wrong profiles when you drink like this. Even delta knew enough to fire you for this. ;)
SEA-LHR was a weak market even back in the Pan Am days with PA & BA duking it out. It was my favorite non-rev route, always a guaranteed seat (F-Class)!
I think Seattle has changed a bit since then ;)
SEA-LHR was a weak market even back in the Pan Am days with PA & BA duking it out. It was my favorite non-rev route, always a guaranteed seat (F-Class)!
Oh lord.
Money on that this additional DL service will not launch. Who's going to be flying TATL from either side with a wrecked economy?
A virgin just announced they’re canceling their route from Seattle to London I believe, probably heading towards Asian demand.
While Delta has cancelled its MCO-LHR service, it seems Virgin is adding a 3x weekly flight compared to last year, meaning there isn't a loss of capacity on the route. The same thing happened when DL launched the MCO-LHR route, with VS pulling some frequencies on the route and giving it to DL. It seems it's just about who operates the route. I flew Delta's MCO-LHR flight earlier this year, and the flight wasn't too...
While Delta has cancelled its MCO-LHR service, it seems Virgin is adding a 3x weekly flight compared to last year, meaning there isn't a loss of capacity on the route. The same thing happened when DL launched the MCO-LHR route, with VS pulling some frequencies on the route and giving it to DL. It seems it's just about who operates the route. I flew Delta's MCO-LHR flight earlier this year, and the flight wasn't too full (but I was traveling on a Wednesday in the middle of February). Meanwhile, Virgin's frequency on the same route was much more packed, despite the (in my opinion) less desirable flight timings.
Why fly DL when you can fly the VS A330 for a better points deal and better onboard experience?
This only made sense in the 787 days.
Long range airline planning has always been a crapshoot for anything more than 3 months in advance.
Given the current environment, it is beyond impossible to have any idea what will happen in the fall, let alone the winter.
the good news, if there is any, is that the UK got put into the lowest tier of tariffs so the US and UK could become bestest of buddies compared to the rest of...
Long range airline planning has always been a crapshoot for anything more than 3 months in advance.
Given the current environment, it is beyond impossible to have any idea what will happen in the fall, let alone the winter.
the good news, if there is any, is that the UK got put into the lowest tier of tariffs so the US and UK could become bestest of buddies compared to the rest of Europe.
There is talk of the US joining the Commonwealth so we have that possibility to look forward to.
"There is talk of the US joining the Commonwealth so we have that possibility to look forward to."
I absolutely hate that someone can say something so obviously and patently asinine and I can't call them out as being the most unintelligent, wildly optimistic(?), unrealistic mouth breather of all time... because our Glue-Sniffer in Chief might actually pursue that. Literally makes no sense.
@Super
This is Tim Dunn we're talking about.
get a second cup of coffee or hit of whatever you do to tip yourself to or from reality. glue sniffing might work too.
Of course it makes no sense. Nothing does at least w the economy or politics or global relations right now.
btw, in real life, the WSJ has an article about the cost of Brexit to the UK and says there MIGHT BE some cautionary lessons for the US.
How can Alaska and British Airways possibly believe they can compete with the world's only PERFECT airline?
I absolutely hate that someone can say something so obviously and patently asinine and I can't call them out as being the most unintelligent, wildly optimistic(?), unrealistic mouth breather of all time... because our Glue-Sniffer in Chief might actually pursue that. Literally makes no sense.”
This should be a disclaimer for every single world that little irrelevant Tim writes.
And yet you jump in with both feet
Every
Single
Time
Little Tim, you miss understand being a laughing stock for being someone who people “jump in with both feet”. It’s amazing how much you live in your own sick reality. In your mind, people come running to read what you write because you think you are brilliant, when in reality, people come to have a quick laugh and the go back to their business. You’re just like a little toy that entertains people for free....
Little Tim, you miss understand being a laughing stock for being someone who people “jump in with both feet”. It’s amazing how much you live in your own sick reality. In your mind, people come running to read what you write because you think you are brilliant, when in reality, people come to have a quick laugh and the go back to their business. You’re just like a little toy that entertains people for free. But I digress. It’s useless to try to talk reason with someone incapable of being rational.
I mean, you're not wrong, Eduardo
I don’t really care what people think. If you haven’t figured that out, you are the one who doesn’t get it. I do find it beyond comical, how much you and others can’t wait to jump on my posts.
and yet you spend your entire day waiting to see who replies to you for a good laugh.
Tim, get a life. Even your delta brethren think you're an idiot.
I am surprised that DL doesn't operate one daily and let VS operate the other daily. As a JV partner it seems to push VS off of routes, but perhaps I'm wrong.
VS is for the UK point of sale and getting UK O&D, which is why VS services the top O&D airports in the US.
This article lacks the proper historical context. During the summer, normally Delta and VS run 1x daily frequency to match BA's double dailies. And seasonally DL reduces capacity and has moved it to MCO for the past few years to capture Florida/Europe leisure demand. DL moving its airframe back to daily...
VS is for the UK point of sale and getting UK O&D, which is why VS services the top O&D airports in the US.
This article lacks the proper historical context. During the summer, normally Delta and VS run 1x daily frequency to match BA's double dailies. And seasonally DL reduces capacity and has moved it to MCO for the past few years to capture Florida/Europe leisure demand. DL moving its airframe back to daily SEA for the summer is normal and has been the case for a very long time.
The change is far less drastic than what is being represented. The more signficant of it being if VS does indeed exit the market. And possibly up to 4x additional weekly frequencies, which could be necessary as LAX-LHR is no longer served by DL
Also, just a quick correction. BA has 14x weekly service during NS with double dailies, they reduce down to 10x weekly in NW. I could see DL reducing their frequencies in the winter and just using this as a placeholder for now, as they largely match the OW JV frequencies.
Also AY did bump up some frequencies to SEA as well, which is a relevant factor as a part of the TATL JV market, however, that is only in the summer.
I think this is a strategic move after they axed LAX-LHR. SEA got a healthy boost as they routed a good number of passengers via SEA.
Hopefully, this isn't a full market exit of VS and instead just a seasonal shift. VS is much more award travel friendly. The VS point of sale is stronger in Europe anyhow and that's the peak tourism period for Seattle.
Regardless this does match what VS was citing in the article last weak about weakening US demand.
Agree….way too much capacity for SEA-LHR… especially since SEA airport is saturated with one of the worst designed international arrivals terminals
Ben, you should fly in economy on the UAL 787 b/c that is what i always fly, not business class.
stefen, you should fly in business class on the UAL 787 b/c that is what Ben always fly, not economy.
With a massive US recession on the horizon, look for a sharp pullback from DL at SEA and LAX.
With an epic, 1930s-scale Depression on the horizon, look for a sharp pullback from all airlines at SEA and LAX and everywhere else as the world economy collapses.
There, I fixed it for you.
Unlikely to last and way too much capacity for DL on this route, going up against tough competition from BA, which benefits from AS.
Ben, earlier today Sean M., a 'UK Airline Scheduled Analyst', posted on his X account that Delta's second daily service is just a time swap, and that the old service will be removed from schedule soon. I have found the guy to be pretty reliable in the past so I guess that's what's happening here.
This makes the most sense, but that would be a shame with the aircraft downgrade from the neo to ceo.